DFS Alerts

Fulmer has struck out 22 of 80 batters in 22.1 IP over his last three starts (just one run)

Michael Fulmer (25.4 K%, 3.24 ERA, 3.48 SIERA) has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, allowing a total of one run with 22 Ks and just four walks. He returns home after two west coast starts to face a Toronto offense that has been less potent than expected (91 wRC+ on the road, 95 wRC+ vs RHP) in a neutral park. This is a pitcher who many players might not be on due to the reputation of the Toronto offense and a high run projection (4.58), but he could be worth his $9.9K cost on DraftKings and can potentially be one of the top values for $8K on FanDuel. It’s understandable if you want to keep the big three in consideration here as Fulmer has allowed a .332 wOBA to RHBs and all three still have a wRC+ between 138-145 with an ISO above .250 vs RHP since last season. However, Bautista leads the pack with a 125 wRC+ vs RHP this season, with none of the three above a .250 ISO. Josh Donaldson has additionally been struggling with a thumb problem the last several days.

Zobrist is OUT for top projected lineup (4.94 runs) in Philadelphia tonight

Adam Morgan does have a 10.6 SwStr%, but it hasn’t translated to as many strikeouts as he had in AAA this year (20 of 75 batters) with just a 15.0 K% this season and even worse over the last month. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters (6.3 BB%), which is good when facing the patient Cubs, but he does allow a lot of hard contact in the air (36.3 Hard%, 0.9 GB/FB), which is going to be a problem in this park against this lineup, even minus Ben Zobrist. One issue that might keep the ownership numbers of this lineup at bay is their high cost. Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo all cost $3.9K or more on FD and at least $5K on DraftKings. They all hit LH pitching at a well above average rate with power (Fowler’s .155 ISO vs LHP since 2015 is the lowest of the three). Without many high priced arms though, players may lean towards higher exposure to these bats and opt for cheaper pitchers with some upside, of which there are a few tonight. The most interesting bat in this lineup might Javier Baez (219 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since 2015). With Morgan’s low strikeout rate potentially increasing Baez’s upside, he has the potential to generate value far beyond his price tag ($3.5K on DK, $2.6K on FD). Players should get as much exposure to this lineup as they can afford with even David Ross pounding LHPs this year (208 wRC+, .292 ISO) in a limited sample, but a low cost. Bryant (103 mph aEV in 4 batted balls), Soler, and Ross have all homered against Morgan in just a combined 12 PAs.

Tonight's top pitcher (Lester) gets a further bump with Herrera OUT

Jon Lester was already tonight’s top pitcher by a fair margin before it was announced that the Phillies were sitting one of their few competent bats (Odubel Herrera). Lester keeps trucking along with the same 25 K% that he’s had each of the last two years. His game by game results haven’t been as consistent as his complete game last time out was the first time he’d completed seven innings in a month and he’s struck out five or less in six starts. The Phillies have the 2nd lowest wRC+ both at home (70) and vs LHP (62). Lester costs slightly more than usual tonight, but this is a top matchup for tonight’s top pitcher. He has allowed just a .282 wOBA and 27.8 Hard% to RHBs since last season. The only Philadelphia bat players could consider not throwing out is Cameron Rupp, who is an inexpensive catcher batting 5th, who has had some success vs LHP (127 wRC+, .200 ISO since last season).

With Luis Perdomo on the mound for San Diego, look for Car-Go and Charlie Blackmon to have productive nights

Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon make for expensive sneaky plays in the outfield tonight. In limited appearences, Luis Perdomo has an xFIP of 6.06 against left-handed bats. While Perdomo only has a FB% allowed to LHB of 29%, nearly 80% of the contact allowed is either medium or hard contact. A strike out percentage of 8% against lefties, combined with solid contact, should make for solid at-bats tonight for both Gonzalez and Blackmon.

Dodgers bat their hottest bat, Trayce Thompson, 3rd versus the Braves today

Trayce Thompson has a wRC+ over the last 7 days of 257. It may be fair to debate who has had a better week, Klay or Trayce. Over that time period, Trayce is striking out less than 12% of the time while exhibiting a silly good 0.615 ISO. Look for Thompson to take advantage of this opportunity, facing Matt Wisler, a Braves pitcher sporting a mediocre xFIP of 4.76 versus right-handed batters.

Sonny Gray could be on a pitch count of 80 pitches, according to manager, Bob Melvin

While there was word Sonny Gray would be on a pitch count around 80 pitches, Bob Melvin, the A’s manager, indicated that the flow of the game would dictate if he would make an exception to the projected pitch count. Gray faces an Astros team with a wRC+ of 125 over the last week, striking out 22% of the time.

Dae-Ho Lee batting 5th for Seattle

Dae-Ho Lee gets a chance to face Derek Holland in Texas today. Over the last week, Lee has an ISO of 0.286 and a incredible K% of 4.5%. With first base always a crucial position to select correctly, Lee looks to be a low owned power bat in a positive matchup. Holland has a FB% of 47% against RHBs, a bad trait to bring to a hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, TX. Globe Life park is the 4th most optimal hitting environment for RHBs, another reason to look to Lee today as a value first baseman.

Soler gets the rare cleanup spot with Rizzo out of the Cubs lineup

Patrick Corbin has a stirke out rate of 12.1% against right-handed batters and a 29% FB%. Jorge Soler gets the rare chance to bat cleanup today against Corbin, who will help to suppress Soler’s 22% strikeout percentage against LHPs. While we would like Soler to have a higher ISO against lefties, considering it is a humble 0.104, but his affordable price makes Soler a viable play today in Chicago.

Logan Morrison's production is rewarded with a premium lineup position

Logan Morrison has been swinging the bat much better in recent weeks and today he will get the chance to bat 4th for the Rays. Morrison has an impressive wRC+ of 203 over the last week, combined with an ISO of 0.296. Over that same time period, he has kept his K% low for his standards, striking out only 27% of the time. He faces Tyler Duffey today, a pitcher who has limited damage allowed to LHBs, but Duffey’s 86% hard and medium contact allowed to LHBs provides some optimism Morrison could put a few good swings on the ball today.

If you like ORANGE AND YELLOW, you will love Roth’s Sunday weather update. Detroit, Boston, and Baltimore each received ORANGE ratings, and a number of other games received ratings of YELLOW/ORANGE. Check out the full update here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Phillies lineup has a different look today with Freddy Galvis and Tommy Joseph in the top 4

Freddy Galvis will bat second today, followed by Tommy Joseph cleaning up. The Phillies face Wily Peralta today, a pitcher who strikes out both LHB and RHB less than 17% of the time. While Joseph provides significant power against RHP, with an ISO of 0.256, Galvis’s ISO of 0.171 is sneaky powerful for a speedster.

The Nationals take on Jon Moscot, a pitcher striking out only 7% of batters in has last few starts

When picking batters to play in daily fantasy baseball, picking batters who will make contact is a good strategy. Jon Moscot, the Reds starting pitcher today, has a strikeout percentage of 7% over his last few starts. They may be popular, but Nationals left-handed swingers would appear to have the highest of floors, meaning Ben Revere, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy combine to form about as “safe” of a stack as we will see on a given slate. Murphy and Harper have ISOs of 0.268 and 0.300 against RHP, respectively, meaning there is upside to go along with the high floors they offer today.

Alejandro De Aza leading off for the Mets

De Aza will get an opportunity to lead off which would be a good thing on most days. Today, however, De Aza is facing Jose Fernandez. Fernandez has been electric in recent starts and is whiffing LHBs 26.2% of the time. De Aza only strikes out 1/4 of the time against RHPs, but Fernandez is elite, so consider De Aza the most high risk of contrarian value plays today.

Salvador Perez batting 4th for the Royals

Perez will be batting cleanup for the Royals today. It is a little odd that the Royals have left him at the bottom of the lineup for the majority of the year, considering that Perez has the second highest wRC+ on the team against RHP at 129. His 0.233 ISO against RHP has made him worthy of a better lineup position and it is good to see the short-handed Royals giving him this opportunity.

Jason Coats will be batting 2nd for the White Sox

Who is Jason Coats? He is batting second, but he is not much of a base stealer. Coats only has one stolen base in AAA in 2016, but has performed well against right-handed pitching, sporting a 0.563 slugging and 0.364 batting average against right-handed pitching. Justin Verlander has been solid this year, but oddly enough, he has been striking out LHBs at a higher rate than RHBs, striking out righties 21.7% of the time.