DFS Alerts
Wilson Ramos (150 wRC+ vs RHP this season) moves up to 5th against Latos
Mat Latos has a 4.02 ERA and his underlying numbers suggest it’s going to get worse with just a 12.7 K% and a 78.6 LOB%. He’s been about average vs RHBs since last season (.309 wOBA), but has allowed LHBs a .339 wOBA. The obvious would be to have a lot of exposure to Bryce Harper (193 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP since 2015) who costs less $5K tonight. The more expensive Daniel Murphy had hit RHP better this year (197 wRC+, .279 ISO) and is a top 2nd Base bat if affordable. The one bat RH bat who has taken a real step forward against RHP this year moves up to 5th tonight and is also a Catcher. Wilson Ramos has a 150 wRC+ and .183 ISO vs RHP in 2016 and a 345 wRC+ and 50.0 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Mat Latos
Dallas Keuchel allowing a .370 wOBA to right-handed batters on the road, .255 to LHB
Ian Desmond (.405 wOBA, 153 wRC+) and Adrian Beltre (.392 wOBA, 144 wRC+) have both been playing well over the last couple weeks, which has caused their salaries to spike. Desmond is $5k on DraftKings and Beltre is $5.2K. It’ll be tough to fit in both players on DK if you stick to the top-end pitching tonight. Since 2015, Dallas Keuchel’s weakness has been right-handed batters on the road, so Beltre and Desmond do deserve tournament consideration. Switch-hitting Jurickson Profar has played well as the leadoff hitter (.428 wOBA, 169 wRC+ L14) and is an affordable $3.4K on DK. Ryan Rua (.468 wOBA, 197 wRC+ L14) also deserves consideration in a Rangers’ stack but continues to bat 7th, behind a couple lefties, which could limit his RBI potential/upside. Dallas Keuchel is a value pitching option but plays in a hitter-friendly park tonight, which does not bode well for his fantasy value.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Dallas Keuchel, Jurickson Profar, Ryan Rua
Evan Gattis has 3 HRs in 20 PAs against Hamels and a .340 ISO vs LHP overall this year
Cole Hamels has great overall numbers (3.39 ERA, 24.2 K%, 13.2 SwStr%), but you never know how he’s going to get there. He’s struck out just five in each of his last two starts after a stretch where he struck out nine or more in three of four starts. He’s also allowed nine HRs over his last five starts and it’s not out of the question to look up and see him with four walks occasionally. He might pay off his price and more, but he’s never the safest $10K pitcher on any board. Though Hamels has an average .309 wOBA vs RHBs since last season, the Astros have some bats that hammer LH pitching and one who has pounded Hamels in particular. With 10 batted balls on the Statcast register, Evan Gattis has a decent 92.8 mph aEV, but also three career HRs in 20 PAs against this lefty. He has a 180 wRC+ and .340 ISO vs LHP overall this season. George Springer (166 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Jose Altuve (178 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP since 2015) have been so good against southpaws that they could remain in play here even at high prices and are likely to be low owned.
Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, George Springer, Jose Altuve Pineda has just a 26.0 Hard% over his last six starts, 5th highest SwStr% in baseball this year
Michael Pineda is coming off his best start of the season striking out eight of 23 Tigers without allowing a run. He retains the 5th highest SwStr in baseball (14.1%) and he’s hit 20% twice in the last month, while trending towards weaker contact (26.0 Hard%) despite a BABIP above .400 over his last six starts. The Angels don’t strike out (15.6 K% vs RHP), making them a more difficult opponent in this environment, especially considering his poor batted ball results, but there has to be some regression in some of these numbers he doesn’t full control over. His ERA estimators still sit nearly three runs below his actual ERA and he costs just $6K on DraftKings. Pineda is a high risk, high reward pitcher tonight. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP since 2015), as always, is one of the top bats and one of the most expensive tonight, while Calhoun (118 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Pujols (116 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be priced beyond their expectation.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun Blue Jays with the 3rd highest run projection (5.08) against left-hander Matt Boyd
The Blue Jays have moved left-handed batter Michael Saunders to 6th in the lineup and will look to punish Matt Boyd with their right-heavy lineup. Boyd has only started two games so far this season so the sample size of his stats are small. If we look at 2015, Boyd faced 101 right-handed batters at home and allowed a .264 wOBA. While this does not bode well for the Blue Jays prospects, they still are projected to be one of the top offenses of the night. Boyd has allowed a .371 wOBA to right-handed batters over the last two seasons if we combine the road stats, putting Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Russell Martin in play. Bautista has a .365 wOBA, .231 ISO vs. RHP and is an affordable $4,200 on DraftKings. Josh Donaldson (.353 wOBa, 122 wRC+ L14) and Russell Martin (.395 wOBA, 151 wRC+ L14) have been playing well over the last couple weeks, making Donaldson the most expensive hitter on DK in the lineup. Martin has also seen an intense spike in his salary but deserves consideration because he is the cleanup hitter tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Michael Saunders Marcell Ozuna has 258 wRC+ and .452 ISO vs LHP this year
Pat Dean has a 20.9 K%, but just a 6.6 SwStr% and has not had a strikeout rate above 15% at any level of the minor leagues since rookie ball in 2011. He has allowed RHBs a .366 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% so far. Despite the slump (14 wRC+ last seven days) Giancarlo Stanton has a 42.9 Hard% over the last week and a 186 wRC+ with a .449 ISO vs LHP since last season. He’s a top OF bat for less than $4.5K tonight, while we could say the same for Marcell Ozuna (258 wRC+, .452 ISO vs LHP this season) at the same price. Martin Prado has a 127 wRC+ vs LHP since last year for less than $3.5K and Christian Yelich has hit LHP well this year (130 wRC+) and is swinging a hot bat (198 wRC+, 45 Hard%) for less than $4K. The two through five spots look very strong in this lineup at affordable prices.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich, Patrick Dean Yankees are a top projected offense with a lot of cheap bats tonight
David Huff returns to the major leagues in Yankee Stadium. He has thrown just 100 major league innings since 2013 and has a career ERA of 5.08 with estimators just below five. The Yankees stack up on RH bats, but really, batters from both side have hit him well in his career (.368 wOBA vs LHBs, .345 wOBA vs RHBs). Despite an inability to generate much offense this season, this is a lineup with a lot of value in it with only their leadoff many above $3.8K on either site. The two big bats are Alex Rodriguez (142 wRC+, .271 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Carlos Beltran (102 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP since 2015) with the value or punt plays filling in around them. Rob Refsnyder has just a 95 career wRC+ vs LHP in limited opportunities, but plays 2B, bats 2nd, and costs less than $3K against a bad pitcher. Starlin Castro is a similar bat at a similar cost at the same position batting 5th. You have to drop further for Austin Romine, but this is a Catcher who has been about an average hitter vs LHP this season (100 wRC+, .146 ISO) for $2.5K. The Yankees are projected for a slate high 5.28 runs (before the lineup came out).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro, Rob Refsnyder, Austin Romine, David Huff Valencia and Davis both OUT in NL park against Zach Davies
Khris Davis will have to wait a little longer for his return to Milwaukee as both he and Danny Valencia are out of the lineup tonight against Zach Davies, coming off a career start against the Cardinals (8 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 9 K). He’d previously struck out no more than six and only pitched into the 7th inning just once, but this lineup might make him a useful pitcher tonight for $6.5K on FanDuel especially. While his 18.3 K% isn’t terrible, a 37.9 Hard% is still concerning. Stephen Vogt hasn’t been nearly as big a bat this year, but still has a 115 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP as a catcher eligible cleanup hitter for less than $4K in a power friendly park. He has a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Jed Lowrie (115 wRC+, .082 ISO vs RHP in 2016) would appear the other considerable bat here as an inexpensive second baseman in the three hole.
Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie Jhonny Peralta returns to lengthen an already deep St Louis lineup
The Cardinals have just a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, but that’s a number that’s been improving and the addition of Jhonny Peralta ($2K on FanDuel) only serves to lengthen this lineup to where you can’t find a weak point. John Lamb hasn’t been successful against batters from either side in his career, but has allowed LHBs a .442 wOBA and 37.7 Hard%, though we’re only talking about 85 PAs. Still, Matt Carpenter hits LHP well (111 wRC+, .197 ISO since 2015) and is the hottest bat in this lineup (270 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% over the last week). He could see lower ownership atop a lineup projected to score 5.27 runs tonight due to the lefty on the mound. Stephen Piscotty is one of the top OF bats tonight. He has a career 184 wRC+ and .224 ISO vs LHP. Almedys Diaz may have cooled off, but is still an average SS bat (105 wRC+, .154 ISO vs LHP) in the two spot of a potent lineup. While those are the top three bats, this is an entirely stackable offense through the top five at least.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jhonny Peralta, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, John Lamb Kyle Hendricks has a 57.6 GB% and -6.7 Hard-Soft% against one of the worst offenses in the league
Kyle Hendricks might be tonight’s top pitcher and is definitely in one of the top spots. He combines an average strikeout rate with an elite weak ground ball rate (57.6 GB%, -6.7 Hard-Soft%) and faces a team that can’t hit the ball hard (22.9 Hard% at home, 26.8 Hard% vs RHP). Most importantly, the leash appears to be off as he’s gone a combined 17 innings over his last two games with barely 100 pitchers each time. The only concern is that he’s failed to complete 6 innings in four of his starts. With a slate low 3.29 run projection, all Philadelphia bats should probably be removed from consideration.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Jerad Eickhoff has a 19.2 K-BB% at home in his short career
The Cubs have a 4.71 run projection tonight and scored four runs two weeks ago against Jerad Eickhoff, but he did strike out seven of 26 batters and has excellent control (4.7 BB%). An 11.4 BB% is this offense’s main weapon against RHP as their 21.7 K% and 12.4 HR/FB, along with a 31.2 Hard% are rather average. On a difficult pitching board, we’re looking for every edge we can find and Eickhoff’s ability to throw strikes may take away a big part of this offense. He also now has a 19.2 K-BB% and 8.9 HR/FB at home in his short career, costing $7 to $7.2K on either main site. He might not have the upside to generate double digit strikeouts, but there are reasons to think he could pitch better than Vegas projects tonight. If you’re not on board with that line of thought, Anthony Rizzo hammers RHP (149 wRC+, .269 ISO since 2015) and has a 259 wRC+ over the last week. His three batted balls against this pitcher have had an aEV of 104 mph, though with no extra base hits. Eickhoff has been flawed vs LHBs (.358 wOBA, 34.6 Hard%), but much better against RHBs (.250 wOBA) since his call up last year. Dexter Fowler has really improved from the left side of the plate this year (166 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Tommy La Stella (125 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the value bat here at a weak position, but may run the risk of being PH for.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant Mike Leake has a 13.8 HR/FB and returns to Cincinnati, where Reds have a 17.7 HR/FB
Mike Leake has some experience allowing HRs in this park (13.8 career HR/FB) as he returns to Cincinnati and despite all their faults, this is a lineup that has a 17.7 HR/FB at home. Their 154 wRC+ over the last week still carries a bit of a Coors hangover, but there has been some life in some of these bats lately, though many of them carry a $5K price tag on DraftKings. Leake doesn’t have a large platoon split and allows a hard contact rate just over 30% to batters from both sides since last season. The power bats here are Votto (156 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Bruce (107 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Duvall (137 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and much less expensive on DraftKings is leadoff man Zack Cozart (109 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015). All but Cozart (31.3%) have a hard hit rate at 40% or higher over the last week. It sounds strange to say it, but the question is more one of cost as all four of these Cincinnati bats rate well against Leake.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, Zack Cozart Bolsinger (20.9 career K%) is in a good spot at a low price at home against Rockies
Mike Bolsinger has pitched well in two of his three starts, though he hasn’t completed six innings in any. While his K% has been a bit above average in all three seasons of his career, his 11.0 SwStr% is well above his career rate. Even if that were to come down, he’s facing a poor Colorado road team (14.9 K-BB%) with a very mediocre 96 wRC+ vs RHP and the 2nd lowest run projection of the night (3.46). Bolsinger projects for a high point per dollar value on either site for $6K or less in a favorable spot at home. He has allowed LHBs a .337 wOBA and 31.3 Hard% since last season, so we’re going to still want to look at Carlos Gonzalez (107 wRC+ road, 148 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP since last season). He has a 297 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week. Charlie Blackmon is an average hitter vs RHP and one the road, who may still have some value in the leadoff role. Nolan Arenado (121 wRC+ road, 131 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and 254 wRC+ last seven days) is the other bat worth looking at, though Bolsinger has allowed just a .291 wOBA to RHBs since becoming a Dodger.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado Tyler Chatwood struggles against right-handed bats, has a 16.1 HR/FB% against them this season
Tyler Chatwood has allowed a .341 wOBA against right-handed bats this season and the Dodgers have six in the lineup tonight. The Dodgers right-handed bats are all relatively cheap tonight but don’t offer a ton of upside with a 4.04 run projection (7th lowest). Trayce Thompson has been hitting the ball well over the last couple weeks (.425 wOBA, 173 wRC+ L14) and has a .399 wOBA, 156 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016. A.J. Ellis will be the backstop and Justin Turner will return and leadoff after having a day off on Sunday. Turner has not been hitting the ball particularly well over the last couple weeks (.290 wOBA, 83 wRC+) but is only $2.8K on DraftKings, if you need a really cheap 3B that is viable. Adrian Gonzalez is also a viable bat ($3.5K on DK) that has a .203 ISO, .355 wOBA vs. RHP.
Other tagged players: A.J. Ellis, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Tyler Chatwood Pearce OUT vs lefty who allows a lot of hard contact (26.4 Hard-Soft% at home since 2015)
Robbie Ray has a 24.8 K%, but allows a ton of hard contact at home (26.4 Hard-Soft%, 13.8 HR/FB since last season) in a dangerous park against an offense with a 14.6 HR/FB and 17.2 Hard-Soft% plus the 2nd highest wRC+ (121) vs LHP. They are missing a couple of big RH bats tonight with Guyer and Forsythe on the DL and Pearce out of the lineup, but this is still a lineup with a lot of upside against a pitcher who has allowed a .341 wOBA and 38.2 Hard% to RHBs since last season. Evan Longoria (154 wRC+, .225 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is one of the hottest hitters in baseball (336 wRC+, 54.6 Hard% last seven days) and maybe the top overall bat tonight. Tim Beckham (83 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since 2015) gains value in the two spot. Mikie Mahtook (163 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP career) is a great low cost OF option tonight. Even Curt Casali hitting 8th as a Catcher could be considered for his prowess vs LHP (117 wRC+, .271 ISO since last season). He has a 267 wRC+ and 50.0 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mikie Mahtook, Tim Beckham, Curt Casali, Robbie Ray