DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth’s weather report has been posted, and games in Baltimore, Boston, and Detroit received ORANGE ratings. To see the full report, go to: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Cespedes scratched, Lagares now batting second with Walker cleaning up

Cespedes was scratched at the last minute, so the Mets have moved Lagares up to the 2nd spot in the order with Walker now cleaning up.

Kevin Roth has posted an updated report with some improvements, including the WASH@CIN game that is now rated as YELLOW/ORANGE. Check out the full update here: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/mlb-weather-update-risk-lowered-1327255

Chris Davis is batting cleanup at home, facing a pitcher with a 12% K% versus left-handed bats

Ivan Nova has a strikeout rate of 12.3% against left-handed batters this year, but has limited his FB% to 20%. If Davis can just elevate the ball today, he could make for a solid play at first base. Davis has an impressive 0.241 ISO when facing right-handed pitchers this year, although his ISO has been greater on the road than at his home at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. There may be an opportunity for this home/road split to regress back to a more favorable ratio considering Davis had an ISO of 0.353 at home in 2015.

Salvador Perez returns to the Royals lineup, batting 5th against Josh Tomlin

Salvador Perez is batting 5th for the Royals today and facing Josh Tomlin. This game has already received a ORANGE/RED weather rating from Kevin Roth, so keep an eye on the weather in this game. If somehow this game is able to play, however, Perez has an impressive 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, including a massive 0.233 ISO. At a position with limited talent on many nights, Perez is a viable play against RHP, weather permitting.

Brad Miller is getting a chance to lead off for the Rays in Minnesota

Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Twins and Brad Miller will get the chance to lead off today. Miller’s stolen base upside will be slightly limited, considering the battery pairing of Santana-Centeno has a combined rating of +0.27 on the RotoGrinders Daily SB Predictor. Still, Miller’s 0.318 OBP versus right-handed pitching provides for a solid floor against a pitcher who is only striking out lefties 15.1% of the time in 2016.

In a game that could see rain in the later innings, Angels right-handed bats look to punish Locke

Jeff Locke’s xFIP of 5.24 to RHBs points to using RHBs on the Angels today in Pittsburgh. While players like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are in great positions to succeed today, Kevin Roth indicates that the production MAY need to come in the early innings. If we use Trout or Pujols today, we will hope they are able to get to Jeff Locke in the early innings before any possible rain hits PNC Park.

Astros right-handed batters look to test Kendall Graveman's exceptionally high HR/FB

Kendall Graveman has given up a FB% of nearly 33% this year to RHB to go along with a massive 24% HR/FB. These numbers would point to Graveman’s 2.75 HR/9 versus RHBs coming down as the season progresses, but we could hope the numbers wait another outing to begin regressing downward. Jose Altuve (wRC+ of 141 vs. RHP) and George Springer (wRC+ of 133 vs. RHP) have elite wRC+s against right-handed pitching and make for above average plays today against Graveman.

Derek Dietrich leading off for the Marlins today and facing Bartolo Colon

Bartolo Colon is giving up 1.32 HR/9 to left-handed batters this year and his batted ball numbers indicate that this HR/9 rate has a good chance of staying the same. When facing LHBs, Colon is giving up a FB% of 44% with a near league average HR/FB of 11.4%. His 1.32 HR/9 is not due to bad luck and his unimpressive 16.5% strikeout against LHBs is not doing much to offset the production allowed. Players like Derek Dietrich and Christian Yelich are in prime positions today, possessing wRC+s versus RHPs of 151 and 162, respectiviely.

Kevin Roth has posted his report and both WASH@CIN and KC@CLE currently have ORANGE/RED ratings. Additionally, ARI@CHI received a rating of ORANGE/YELLOW. Check out Roth’s full report here to see a breakdown of the weather for each game: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Kris Bryant and other Cubs RHBs face Edwin Escobar at home

Edwin Escobar does not have enough innings pitched at the major league level to use any of his numbers with the Diamondbacks, but he gave up more production to RHBs in his 2016 minor league campaign. Escobar has a higher OPS allowed to RHBs, 0.850, mainly attributed to a slugging allowed of 0.487. This points to a player like Kris Bryant who has a higher ISO against LHPs, 0.288, and a higher ISO at home, 0.257. Surprisingly, Bryant has a much lower batting average against LHP, 0.220 compared to 0.304 against RHP, so view Bryant as a high upside play today against a young pitcher who has been hit hard in his few appearances to date.

Drew Pomeranz has been an eilte pitcher at home so far this season and dominated LHBs last season too

Pomeranz allowed a .200 wOBA to left-handed bats last season and allowed a .225 wOBA against them 10 starts so far this season. With the Rockies playing out of Coors Field and into pitcher-friendly Petco Park, the few left-handed bats in the lineup should not be used. Ryan Raburn is severely discounted now that he is out of friendly confines of Colorado, sitting at only $2.7K on DraftKings. Carlos Gonzalez is out of the lineup tonight, causing Nolan Arenado to bat 3rd and Raburn to bat 4th. Arenado has a .413 wOBA, 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and is also discounted now that he is out of Coors Field. Don’t expect much from the Rockies because they have just a 3.41 run projection tonight.

Braves with the lowest run projection of the day (2.90) against Kenta Maeda

Kenta Maeda (3.00 ERA, 3.94 SIERA, 12.2 SwSt%) has been up and down this season but faces an inept Braves squad. Maeda has not pitched past the 5th inning in his last four starts but should be able to tonight at home against Atlanta. He has a .260 wOBA vs. LHB and .263 wOBA vs. RHB this season and has did not allow a run against the Mets in his last start. With the Braves having such a low run projection it’s tough to recommend any of them. Freddie Freeman is a viable left-handed bat but plays 1B, which is pretty loaded today on a full slate. Freeman (.287 wOBA, 77 wRC+ L14) has been struggling and plays in a pitcher-friendly park. The Braves are not expected to make an impact tonight against Maeda and will likely hurt your roster more than they can help.

Jered Weaver has an ERA and estimators above five in 2016 with wOBA just below .350 allowed since last season

Jered Weaver has an ERA with estimators above five and has almost no platoon split, allowing both right and left handed batters a wOBA just below .350 against him since last season. This is a pitcher’s park with some expensive bats, so it might not be the most fiscally responsible stop of the night, but only Chris Stewart has been a below average hitter vs RHP this season among those in tonight’s lineup. Gregory Polanco leads the way with a 161 wRC+ and .234 ISO, but costs more than $5K on DraftKings. John Jaso (130 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP in 2016) might be the value play here as the only bat in the top of the lineup below $4K on both sites.

Teheran has gone at least seven innings in all four road starts, but Dodger bats are cheap tonight

Julio Teheran has pitched better on the road this season, going at least seven innings in all four road starts and has a 22.1 K% on the year. He might be a bit expensive for $9.9K on DraftKings, but a more reasonable option for $8.3K on FanDuel, though his team’s ability to get a win is in question. He has really struggled with LHBs since last season (.376 wOBA, 34.7 Hard%), which is perhaps why the Dodgers have just two in the lineup. Corey Seager (132 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) might be a top SS bat tonight for less than $4K. Adrian Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is beginning to put it together with a 202 wRC+ over the last week. He costs just $3.6K on DraftKings and $3K on FanDuel. Joc Pederson (122 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is now batting 5th for just $3.2K or less and has a 55 Hard% over the last week despite a -50 wRC+. Not a single Dodger bat costs more than $3.8K on either site.