DFS Alerts

In the late update Kevin pinpoints a couple of games that could give us trouble tonight. Thankfully it’s a full slate, so the problem areas in Texas and Minnesota (both have some ORANGE in them) can be avoided for the risk averse. Read his full report on our weather page, linked below.

Yu Darvish making his second start at home, will be on a pitch count

Darvish was averaging 94 MPH on his fastballs in his minor league start, which is up from his average velocity of 92 MPH over the last couple seasons. Yu Darvish is known to be tough on right-handed batters so the Mariners will only have Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee as the right-handed bats in the lineup. With the majority of their lineup being left-handed, Robinson Cano (.409 wOBA 167 wRC+ L14), Kyle Seager (.447 wOBA, 193 wRC+ L14), Adam Lind (.459 wOBA, 201 wRC+), and Seth Smith (.500 wOBA, 229 wRC+) stand out as the hot bats. Cano is $5K on DraftKings and could hamper your roster flexbility due to the expensive pitching options available on the slate. Seth Smith and Adam Lind are the cheaper options of the four mentioned but don’t carry as much upside. The Mariners have a run projection of 3.84 runs (11th lowest), making them too risky for cash games against Darvish.

Cueto is the top priced pitcher tonight against a lineup projected for 3.7 runs

Johnny Cueto has been great for the Giants, but has done it more by getting deep into games (at least seven innings in nine of 11 starts) and a 4.8 HR/FB with a 22.6 K% not far above average. This is a difficult profile to pay the highest price on either site for ($12.8K on DK) going into St Louis where the Cardinals have a 112 wRC+ at home and 119 wRC+ vs RHP, although it’s a park that suppresses power as well. In fact, while not quite middle of the board, there are several teams below the Cardinals’ 3.7 run projection tonight. While we aren’t looking to attack Cueto with St Louis bats, they are all down in price tonight with only Carpenter (154 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) above $3.5K on either site. Holliday, Adams, and Diaz all have a wRC+ above 130 with an ISO above .230 vs RHP this year. St Louis bats would be an incredibly risky contrarian play, but might help to pay for some of tonight’s other high priced pitchers. It’s not that Cueto is expected to perform poorly here, but that his cost might be too high in a dangerous spot.

Rusin has a 64.2 GB% in 28 innings away from Coors, but Padres are formidable vs LHP (109 wRC+)

The Padres have been one of the hottest offenses in the league (148 wRC+ last seven days) and now have a 109 wRC+ and 17.0 HR/FB vs LHP, but also a 25.6 K%. Chris Rusin has an 18.3 K% this year and a fairly average 4.03 xFIP on the road since last season. He has a 64.2 GB% on the road this season (28 innings). If you’re rostering someone like Syndgergaard on DK and are looking to punt your 2nd pitcher in GPP, the high San Diego strikeout rate might make him an option. If not, he has allowed a .358 career wOBA to RHBs on the road and the Padres have a couple who have torched LHP this year. Matt Kemp now has a 151 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP in 2016 and Wil Myers has a130 wRC+, .167 ISO vs southpaws this season. Both have a wRC+ above 150 and a hard hit rate above 30% over the last week. Derek Norris (116 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) has shown life in his bat with a 187 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% over the last week. Yangervis Solarte (116 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP since last season) doesn’t have many RH ABs this year, but bats cleanup and has a 232 wRC+ over the last week.

Nolasco combines great peripherals (16.6 K-BB%) with a lot of hard contact and low strand rate (58.6%)

This is the rare matchup where either side makes a modicum of sense. Ricky Nolasco allows a lot of hard contact (16.0 Hard-Soft%) and runs as he has trouble holding stranding runners with a career 68 LOB%. That’s even lower at 58.6% this year and should have some positive regression in it. The Rays have some power (14.2 HR/FB, 34.2 Hard% vs RHP), but also a 25.8 K% against righties. Nolasco has a top 30 K-BB (16.6%) among qualified pitchers and costs less than $7K on Fanduel. If you’re not on board with Nolasco’s peripherals (which he never meets in ERA), he’s allowed a .355 wOBA and 31.4 Hard% to RHBs since last season. Evan Longoria (115 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this season) seems rejuvenated (212 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and may be a top 3B play for under $4K tonight. Brad Miller (111 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this season) is a solid SS bat in the two hold (Nolasco .329 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015). While there are no bats players should actively look to avoid if targeting the Rays lineup against Nolasco, nobody besides teh two mentioned have a wRC+ higher than 110 vs RHP this year.

While Wainright has been better over the last month, he still hasn't been good

Adam Wainwright has looked a little better lately, but a 4.65 ERA, 4.18 SIERA, 16.4 HR/FB over the last month is still probably not what he was aiming for. Players may want to ease their foot off the pedal against him a bit now though. He’s been better vs LHBs than RHBs this year (.324 wOBA vs .374 wOBA), though that hasn’t been the case for his career or even last year’s abbreviated campaign. Brandon Belt (143 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is not cheap, but he is crushing the ball (318 wRC+, 38.1 Hard% over the last week). Buster Posey (128 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs the same at a more difficult position with similar results over the last week (171 wRC+, 56.5 Hard%).

Jesse Hahn has been pitching well against RHB over the last two seasons (.247 wOBA, 17.1 Hard%)

Hahn has pitched well against right-handed batters over the last two seasons but has struggled against left-handed batters to start the season. The Astros are projected to score 4.55 (7th highest) so it’s a good idea to target the left-handed bats in the lineup. Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena are the affordable options in the lineup but Rasmus has been struggling over the last couple weeks. Due Rasmus’ (.184 wOBA, 7 wRC+ L14) struggles he is only a viable play in tournaments. Valbuena (.433 wOBA, 179 wRC+) has been hot over the last two weeks and deserves consideration in cash games and tournaments. Valbuena is in the second tier of pricing for 3B and is batting 6th, which could limit his upside due to the right-handed batters in front of him.

Eovaldi has been good this year, but still gets hit hard by LHBs (.347 wOBA, 31.7 Hard%)

Nathan Eovaldi has been good (3.71 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, 22.9 K%, 9.3 SwStr%), but still has a 30.7 Hard% and 13.7 HR/FB in an uncomfortable matchup tonight. LHBs have hit him for a .347 wOBA since last season (31.7 Hard%) and that hasn’t improved this year. That brings inexpensive Baltimore bats immediately to the forefront. Chris Davis (150 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is slumping and has dropped to a 118 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP this season, but is still a formidable bat at home for less than $4K. Hyun Soo Kim (162 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP) doesn’t have a large sample nor has he shown a lot of power, but he has a great lineup spot ahead of some powerful bats at a low price in a great park. Pedro Alvarez (114 wRC, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a bit further down the order, but is another cheap bat with power. He has a 212 wRC+ and 63.6 Hard% over the last week. Matt Wieters (110 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has just a 28 wRC+ over the last week, but a 45.5 Hard%. While a couple of O’s bats are RH reverse platoon guys, Eovaldi has held RHBs to a .261 wOBA with a 61.5 GB% this year.

Vincent Velasquez in a favorable matchup at home at a slightly discounted salary

Vincent Valasquez has been an elite pitcher at home against right-handed batters this season. He is allowing a .190 wOBA and has 19 strikeouts in 11 innings against them. His salary is slightly discounted due to the fact he got beat up in his last two starts. The Brewers are not the Tigers or the Cubs and have a run projection of 3.70 against Velasquez. The only team that strikes out more than the Brewers are the Astros, by .1%. This bodes well for the fantasy value of Velasquez due to the fact he has averaged 6.7 strikeouts a game this season and recently had 10 Ks against the Marlins. If you still want batters from this game, Jonathan Villar or Ryan Braun are viable options. Villar has a .438 wOBA, 175 wRC+ over the last two weeks but is also the most expensive bat in the lineup on DraftKings. Ryan Braun is the most expensive bat in the lineup on FanDuel and has a .384 wOBA, 138 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Jake Odorizzi has a 12.0 HR/FB this year and a .326 wOBA, 31.5 Hard% vs RHBs since last season

Jake Odorizzi has about league average K and BB rates, but draws a lot of his value from an ability to limit HRs some of the more pitcher friendly parks. That seems to have disappeared this year (12.0 HR/FB) with his .247 BABIP keeping 3.36 ERA nearly a run below his estimators. Without HR suppressing skills, he’s a league average pitcher. He’s got a favorable matchup against the Sano-less Twins, but $9K price tag probably comes very close to capturing what he’s worth. With a .326 wOBA and 31.5 Hard% vs RHBs, he has a bit of reverse platoon split, so we might want to look at a couple of RH Twins batters who have hit RHP well. Eduardo Nunez is a leadoff bat who might be SS eligible for less than $4K with a 127 wRC+, though not much power (.140 ISO) vs RHP since last season. He has just a 25.3 Hard% against them over this period though, so we’re not exactly sure what’s holding that up, but it continues to work (184 wRC+ over the last week with a 20.7 Hard%). Byung Ho Park (112 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP) is a low cost power bat here. Minnesota is less constrictive against RH power than it is against lefties.

Ortiz has 3 HRs (5 XBH) in 31 PAs against Dickey

Against a knuckleballer, it’s difficult to look at just splits as a predictor of success or failure. Dickey doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (never more than 30% since he started throwing the knuckleball) and has little platoon split, allowing LH and RH batters about a league average wOBA since last season. This might be a rare occasion where BvP stuff matters more as the Red Sox have the top run projection of the night (5.19). Luckily, the Red Sox have a large recent history with Dickey. Mookie Betts (18 batted balls since 2015) has hit him the hardest (94.3 mph aEV) without a HR, but 4 XBH in 33 career PAs. David Ortiz (89.9 mph aEV in 12 batted balls) and Xander Bogaerts (93.2 mph aEV in 16 batted balls) both have five XBHs (Ortiz 3 HRs) in under 40 PAs. Of course, if you wanted to go back to splits, the entire top seven outside of Hanley Ramirez (91 wRC+, .088 ISO) have destroyed RHP this year (all at least a 130 wRC+).

Castellanos OUT vs LHP Rodon, but the Tigers have the 3rd highest run projection (4.77)

Carlos Rodon with just a league average strikeout rate (21.2%) is not all that interesting for $8K or more tonight. Despite just an 88 wRC+ vs LHP, the Tigers have a 9.6 BB% an 34.6 Hard% vs southpaws this season. Rodon has continued to have trouble with RHBs allowing them a wOBA 100 points higher than LHBs, the same .350 mark as last season. The Tigers 4.77 run projection is 3rd highest on the board tonight, as he will not face a lefty even with Nick Castellanos out of the lineup tonight. Ian Kinsler (217 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP this season) is the one bat who has continued to assault LHP this year, but is most expensive atop the lineup. J.D. Martinez (112 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP this season) has at least kept up the power and is less than $4K on either site, but drops down to 5th in the batting order tonight. Unfortunately, no other Detroit batter has a wRC+ above 100 vs LHP this season and only Victor Martinez (141 wRC+ last seven days) has bettered that mark over the last week among the remaining top eight in the order. This is a lineup that should handle a LH pitcher who struggles against RHBs well, but just haven’t done so often this year for some reason.

LHBs are still pummeling Fister (.396 wOBA this season, .347 since last)

Doug Fister might not be pitching too poorly, but has just a 5.1 SwStr% and 5.6 K-BB% this year, giving us nothing to look forward to in a daily fantasy sense. LHBs still hit him very well (.396 wOBA this season, .347 wOBA since last season with a 32.1 Hard%). The A’s don’t have very many good ones, but two who may be useful today are Catcher eligible Stephen Vogt (121 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for less than $3.5K and Second Baseman Jed Lowrie for $3K or less, who has improved to at least average vs RHP this year (111 wRC+) and bats out of the two spot. Danny Valencia (133 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since last season) has begun to heat up again (325 wRC+, 47.4 Hard% over the last week) can also be kept on the board. He may have some RBI opportunities with the mentioned lefties in front of him.

Price dropped to a 22.9 K% over the last month, Toronto has just a 95 wRC+ vs LHP

Toronto has been handled by good LH pitching this season and have just a team 95 wRC+ against them. David Price has pitched into the 7th inning without exceeding three runs in each of his last four starts, but has seen a drop in his K% in May (22.9 K%, 10.0 SwStr% last 30 days), striking out more than six just once in his last six starts. He’s still harboring a 20.0 K-BB% for the 3rd straight season, though the problem is that his Hard-Soft% is also at 20. Price is a borderline option for $10K against an underachieving offense tonight. There are two bats we’d consider holding here. Josh Donaldson (179 wRC+, .317 ISO vs LHP since last season) is just so damn good. Jose Bautista (127 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is good too, but he has a particular history of success against his former teammate, which includes a 106.1 mph aEV against Price in five batted balls in the Statcast era (since 2015) and six HRs (10 XBH) in 64 PAs career.

Nelson has improved to a .307 wOBA vs LHBs this year, but a .212 BABIP and 37.4 Hard%.

Jimmy Nelson has been an occasional favorite of the DFS community, but his $10.5K cost is too difficult to justify even against one of the worst offenses in the league in Philadephia tonight. While he’s improved against LHBs (.307 wOBA this season), that’s all in his .212 BABIP against them as he’s allowed six HRs and a 37.4 Hard% against lefties this year. He has only topped five strikeouts once in his last last five starts. That’s not enough upside for a $10K pitcher with major flaws. In fact, we can favorably look upon a few inexpensive Phillies bats tonight. While I’d argue that nearly any LH bat for under $3K vs a hard contact prone pitcher in a small park is playable, the most attractive bat is the only one more than $3K. Odubell Herrera (151 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP this season) has become an All Star in the leadoff spot for this inept offense. Andres Blanco (124 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP this season) is a great infield punt play from the 2nd spot if you’re paying up for pitching tonight.