DFS Alerts

If You're Thinking of Paying Down for Pitching...Don't

If you’re considering loading up on bats and paying down for pitching tonight…well, go read the top of the board pitcher breakdown on today’s PlateIQ Live Blog and take one of those guys instead because it quickly gets pretty ugly below the top of the board. In fact, there’s hardly any middle of the board at all It basically consists of Jose Urqidy and Ian Anderson between $7K and $9K. A 3.7 BB% is about the only positive you’ll find in Urquidy’s profile this year. Even with that, he has just an 11.0 K-BB% to go along with just one-third of his contact on the ground and a 91.2 mph EV. Just four of his 10 barrels (11.4%) have left the yard. This is why a 6.10 xERA is much higher than his remaining estimators with only a 4.44 FIP dropping below four and a half. The Twins have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP and this is the only game on the board with significant weather risk.

A 14.2 BB% is a major issue for Anderson and part of the reason he has just a 17 K% with a 13.5 SwStr%. Aside from that, he’s keeping more than half his contact (52.1%) on the ground and has allowed just three barrels (4.1%) this year. The result is a 3.43 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 4.01 ERA. For those who believe these control issues will pass, Anderson has been above a nine percent walk rate at every stop since graduating from rookie ball. The Red Sox do have just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP, but with just a 21.6 K% and the game is being played in a positive run environment. That being said, Anderson is the top projected pitcher below $9K on both sites.

The first low priced pitcher we find on the overall projection board and currently the top point per dollar value projection is debuting rookie Joey Wentz. However, this is not a case of a major prospect expected to set the league on fire. Wentz has completed just 19.2 AAA innings over five starts with a 33.8 K%, but 13.0 BB%. He has walked just three of his last 31 though. A marginally regarded prospect, Wentz carries a 45 FV grade, via Fangraphs, with projection systems forecasting a 2022 ERA around five. Scouting reports suggest a back of the rotation arm, while projections systems (Steamer, The Bat) project him for an ERA around five. What we should like about Wentz today is first, the price (less than $6K) and second, the matchup. The A’s have a 93 wRC+ and 28.1 K% vs LHP. They have a 33 team wRC+ with a 30.5 K% and 2.6 HR/FB over the last seven days. Considering your other options (and there really aren’t any), Wentz is probably going to populate the SP2 spot in many DraftKings lineups, though current ownership projections suggest around one-quarter.

White Sox-Guardians postponed Wednesday due to multiple positive COVID tests

Game update: White Sox-Guardians postponed Wednesday due to multiple positive COVID tests

Top Pitchers Dealing with Difficult, But High Upside Matchups

A seven game Wednesday night slate doesn’t lack star quality pitching, but does feature a clear separation where there are pitchers to roster and then those to attack without much in the aside from some young arms on which there may be a lack of information. Shane McClanahan is the lone pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites tonight. A season low five strikeouts his last time out dropped his strikeout rate all the way to 36.7%. It was the first time he’d been below a 16 SwStr% in any start this year. In addition to all the strikeouts, 59.2% of his contact has been on the ground, though he’s still allowed seven barrels (9.9%). Contact neutral estimators are below two, while others are a bit above three. The Angels can cause some trouble (123 wRC+ vs LHP) in what may be a very hitter friendly environment tonight (see Kevin’s forecast & Weather Edge), but there should be some swing and miss here too (Angels 23.7 K% vs LHP). McClanahan is the second best projected pitcher on the slate (PlateIQ). He seems to have a sharp cutoff at 90 pitches, but we can probably say similar for other high upside arms tonight as well. McClanahan is far from the only expensive pitcher in a difficult, but high upside spot tonight. Find a more detailed breakdown on all of tonight’s top pitchers on Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Leury Garcia scratched Wednesday

Leury Garcia scratched Wednesday

Wilmer Flores (back) scratched Tuesday

Wilmer Flores (back) scratched Tuesday

Ramon Urias scratched Tuesday

Ramon Urias scratched Tuesday

Stacking Projections Suggest Players Will Be on the Hunt for Cheap Bats

As one might expect on a large slate with so much quality pitching and 23 of 24 not exceeding four and a half implied runs, team stacking ownership is expect to be well spread out with only two teams reaching double digit expectation on DraftKings (Marlins against Madison Bumgarner, Rangers against Brad Keller), both based on matchup and affordable bats, while no team stack even exceeds eight percent ownership projection on FanDuel, though these numbers are extremely fluid and subject to updates throughout the day. In addition, even the top team, the Mets (4.91 implied runs) only “smashes” the slate in eight percent of simulations, barely more than several other teams. There are, however, several teams that project as high value stacks on either site. On DraftKings, that’s the Marlins (17.9%) again and the Orioles (14.7%), who may be facing Adam Wainwright (not yet confirmed). The top projected value stack on FanDuel is the Royals (vs Martin Perez), followed by the Diamondbacks (vs Jesus Luzardo) and Rays (vs Reid Detmers). To find out which team projects a strong Leverage Rating on both sites tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Several Top Value Bats Can Be Found Facing Volatile Lefties

If there were ever a slate where players needed to seek out value bats, it’s this one, right here on Tuesday night. This board is loaded with quality pitching, but none of it as cheap, while just one team exceeds 4.5 implied runs. The first thing that immediately catches the eye when perusing top point per dollar values using PlateIQ projections is not a certain team, but an individual player. One of the top projected values on either site is Mark Canha (106 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP since LY), who costs less than $3K on either site. With no other Mets among the top 10 projected values on either site, the reason this stands out is that the Mets are that one team above four and half implied runs (4.91) and Canha is projected to bat second, two spots in front of the lone top 10 overall projected bat in this lineup, Pete Alonso. The projections think they’ll make a nice 1-2 (or more accurately 2-4) punch in daily fantasy lineups and it’s difficult to disagree.

The one team that is popping with several top projected values on DraftKings is facing another declining veteran lefty. Madison Bumgarner was tossed after a single inning in his last start, but perhaps that was a blessing with a 3.55 xERA his only estimator not well more than three runs above his 1.50 ERA. The ERA is a product of a .188 BABIP, 87.7 LOB% and three of his seven runs being unearned. The estimators are the product of a 4.1 K-BB%. RHBs have a .320 wOBA (.324 xwOBA) against him since last year and the Marlins have the second highest team total on the board with 4.49 runs. Garrett Cooper (151 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP since LY) is currently the top projected point per dollar value on DK, followed by Bryan De La Cruz (147 wRC+, .141 ISO), who costs the minimum, with Miguel Rojas (130 wRC+, .160 ISO) among the top 10 values as well.

Cooper also projects as a top value on FanDuel as well, but it’s actually the other side of this matchup that’s projecting for several top values in this machup, including Jordan Luplow (98 wRC+, .218 ISO) topping the board. He’s joined by Cooper Hummel (14 wRC+) and Christian Walker (82 wRC+), who haven’t been very good against southpaws, but each cost $2.4K. We have to be a bit more careful with Arizona bats (4.01), as Jesus Luzardo is actually a top priced pitcher tonight and owns a strikeout rate north of 30% this year, but that’s not to say he’s no longer volatile with an 11.4 BB% and the same 89.5 mph EV he had last year. RHBs own a .376 wOBA (.359 xwOBA) against him since last season.

Several Top Projected Bats in this West Coast Game

Once again, we see the effects of a declining run environment, though a fairly large slight absent of many of the higher run scoring environments in the league and tons of quality pitching probably also contribute on Tuesday night, but only one of 24 teams currently exceeds four and a half implied runs and it’s probably not a surprise that it’s the New York Mets (4.91) in Washington, against Patrick Corbin. The Mets can produce a very deep right-handed lineup against southpaws and with the platoon advantage, batters have a .381 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) against Corbin since last season. However, Pete Alonso (129 wRC+, .302 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only bat in the projected Mets lineup with a top 10 hitter projection via PlateIQ this evening.

In fact, there are only two teams with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight and those two teams happen to be facing each other in Los Angeles. The Corey Kluber (18.1 K-BB%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE) will be the visiting pitcher in one of the more positive run environments on the board tonight. The home team has just a 4.16 implied run line, but Mike Trout (211 wRC+, .362 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Shohei Ohtani (144 wRC+, .291 ISO) are generally always going to be top projected bats and tonight is no different against Kluber and a tough Tampa Bay pen and defense. Kluber does have a sizeable split since last season with RHBs owning a .337 wOBA (.341 xwOBA) against him and LHBs just a .248 wOBA (.271 xwOBA). LAA stacks have to include Taylor Ward (143 wRC+, .250 ISO) tonight too.

On the other side, Reid Detmers is struggling to miss bats (19.8 K%, 8.0 SwStr%), but otherwise hasn’t been horrible with a walk (7.7%) and barrel rate (7.8%) near league average. This works out to all his estimators exceeding four, but also all three-quarters of a run or more below his 5.32 ERA (61.4 LOB%). The Rays have a 4.34 run team total that currently sits fifth best on the board, while RHBs have smashed Detmers in his short major league career (.379 wOBA, .357 xwOBA). Both Wander Franco (194 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Randy Arozarena (148 wRC+, .218 ISO) garner strong expectations in this matchup.

Mid-Range Arms Project Very Strongly on Tuesday

Tuesday night’s slate includes a very deep pitching board that finds several mid-range arms projected above higher priced pitching tonight and that’s not a slight on the higher priced arms at all. Aaron Nola, Robbie Ray, Alex Wood, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber are all projected as well or better than top priced pitchers tonight. In fairness, Nola falls just shy of the $10K mark on FD and $9K mark on DK. With an extremely efficient 26.6 K-BB% through six starts, Nola has registered three straight quality starts. The 90 mph EV and 9.8% Barrels/BBE are a touch high, but not disastrous in concert with his other numbers. In fact, all non-FIP estimators (21.4 HR/FB) are more than three-quarters of a run below his 3.38 ERA and that includes a 2.61 xERA. He gets a significant park upgrade, but the Mariners own a 114 wRC+ with a 21.5 K% vs RHP. As the second best projected pitcher on the board, Nola doesn’t project for extremely high ownership, but there are certainly plenty of other options should players wish to fade him in this spot. For more on some well-regarded pitchers with mid-range price tags, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Quality Pitching Runs Deep on Tuesday Night

Tuesday night’s 12 game slate includes two pitchers reaching the $10K price point on both sites, while three more do so on FanDuel and are also above $9K on DraftKings. There are no other pitchers exceeding $9K on DK. The two most expensive pitchers on the board are Justin Verlander and Kyle Wright. On the surface, it doesn’t look like Verlander (22.9 K-BB%) hasn’t lost much after missing two seasons with Tommy John surgery, but he’s sporting just a 9.7 SwStr%. Perhaps that improves, but he hasn’t been in single digits since 2014. He can become a bit home run prone at times (four on seven barrels so far), which could be trouble with any substantial drop in his strikeout rate. He’s also been a bit of a FIP breaker in the past, but a .192 BABIP and 92.4 LOB% are unsustainable even for him. Estimators are all between 2.59 DRA and 3.23 FIP. The Twins have a 108 wRC+, but fairly high 23.6 K% vs RHP. Verlander is currently PlateIQ’s top projected pitcher and is also currently expected to be the most popular pitcher on the board, though not to an overwhelming point on a large slate.

Even with a season low three strikeouts against the Mets last time out, Wright still registers a 30.6 K% (5.8 BB%) with more than half his contact on the ground (53.4%) and just four barrels (5.4%). He’s been above 90 pitches in four straight starts, completing seven innings in each of his last two. Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.07 FIP and 2.67 DRA. He’ll face the Red Sox (79 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP) in a hitter friendly park. He projects barely inside the top 10 tonight, which could be a mistake, especially if his ownership runs as low as currently projected. These numbers are fluid and may change throughout the day though.

Within $300 of $10K on either site, Lucas Giolito tops the board with a 40.5 K% (16.9 SwStr%). That certainly makes up for the six barrels (15.4%), 22.2 HR/FB and 10.1 BB%. Even his FIP (3.68) and xERA (3.31) are well below four, while contact neutral estimators are about a run below his 3.20 ERA. He’s the fifth best projected pitcher on DraftKings, but barely ahead of Wright on FanDuel currently. The Guardians have surprised the baseball world with a 130 wRC+ and 18.9 K% vs RHP. We may have to begin respecting the matchup more than we thought we’d have to at this point, but Giolito may still be a bit under-valued here.

Joe Ryan hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his five starts. However, in the two starts he allowed two runs, he failed to complete five innings. Aside from that oddity, he’s been rolling through the American League over five starts with a 19.8 K-BB% and solid contact management (18.2 IFFB%, 86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). He’s induced more popups (six) than barrels (four). Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.96 xERA and 3.70 xFIP. This is a tough spot against the Astros, though they’ve been striking out a bit more than in the past (109 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP). Ryan costs $9.4K on DK, but merely projects as a middle of the board pitcher tonight. This is a deep pitching board, but Ryan at less than 5% ownership in this spot may be the lowest we see him all year should he keep at his current pace.

The last of the $10K FD/$9K DK pitchers is Jesus Luzardo. Having allowed more than two runs in just one of his five starts, Luzardo has struck out exactly one-third of the batters he’s faced, which gives him a 21.9 K-BB%, though control problems still persist (11.4 BB%). The strikeout spike is really what’s driving his bounce back so far because the exit velocity (89.5 mph) is exactly the same as last year too. All the other stuff is easier to survive when the strikeout rate is so high, which is not to say that the Marlins wouldn’t love for him to be more efficient, but with estimators ranging from a 2.77 xERA to a 3.26 FIP, who’s gonna argue? He too, is projected outside the top five tonight, despite Arizona’s 66 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs LHP this year.

Brandon Belt (neck) scratched Monday

Top Offense Could Still Offer Positive Leverage Rating

Stacking projections on a nine game DraftKings slate should be a bit different than on FanDuel with just seven and we find that immediately in finding the Dodgers projection for the highest stack ownership (15.1%) and Smash rate (17.2%) on DK, the only site where they are available tonight. Early projections, which are fluid and change throughout the day, have five teams projected between 10-13% ownership on FanDuel, while five teams (not necessarily the same ones) “smash” the slate anywhere between 10.5 to 12% of the time in simulations. Top stacking value is projected to belong to either team in the Miami/Arizona game on DraftKings, while Tigers (16.1%) are barely projected as a slightly better value than the Marlins (16%) on FanDuel. To read more about a couple of standouts on the west coast in terms of Leverage Rating and why the Dodgers may rate well themselves, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Team Runs Lines May Be Top Values Tonight

Daily fantasy players may be hard pressed to find many Marlins or Diamondbacks among the top overall projected bats tonight (PlateIQ), despite their standing atop the board at 4.5 implied runs each, but considering their lower price tags, you’ll certainly find several of them among the top projected point per dollar values tonight. Bryan De La Cruz (106 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is currently the top projected value on DraftKings (fourth on FanDuel) against Humberto Castellanos (batters from either side of the plate above a .320 wOBA since LY). De La Cruz costs the minimum on either site. Garrett Cooper (120 wRC+, .144 ISO) joins him as a top value on both sites (< $3K), while Miguel Rojas (73 wRC+) reaches that status only on DK ($2.6K). Josh Rojas (99 wRC+, .145 ISO) is currently the top projected FanDuel value against Eleiser Hernandez (LHBs .416 wOBA, .368 xwOBA since LY), where David Peralta (97 wRC+, .155 ISO) joins him among the top 10. Over on DraftKings, it’s a different pair of Diamondbacks that project as top 10 values, including Pavin Smith (108 wRC+, .165 ISO), who costs $3.1K and min-priced top prospect Alek Thomas, who had just a 116 wRC+ at AAA this year, but 168 last year and is not yet available on FanDuel.

An additional team that shows up with multiple projected top 10 values is the San Francisco Giants, who generally have several cheap platoon bats atop the order when they face LHP. In this case, that lefty (Austin Gomber) has been pretty good this year (26.5 K-BB% last three starts), but RHBs do have a wOBA & xwOBA within three points of .320 against him since last year. There is some later game pinch hit risk here, but Mauricio Dubon (105 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP since LY), Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Darin Ruf (157 wRC+, .278 ISO) are all fairly cheap tonight.

Just One Offense Above 4.5 Implied Runs Tonight

DraftKings has elected to include two pre-7pm ET starts on a nine game slate and with five of those games on the west coast tonight, there’s a strong likelihood DK players won’t have full lineup disclosure pre-lock tonight. Fanduel, perhaps more conveniently, will start at the normal time and include just seven games. Perhaps the largest implication from an offensive standpoint of this decision is that FD players are looking at a board where not a single offense exceeds four and a half implied runs this afternoon. Sure, the run scoring environment is down all around baseball, but this is still an outlier slate. The Dodgers (4.67), only available on DK, top the board overall, while both teams in the Miami at Arizona game are at exactly four and a half run team totals.

Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .143 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .333 ISO) are currently the top two projected hitters on FanDuel tonight. They’ll face second time starter Jeffrey Springs, but mostly a strong Tampa Bay bullpen on Monday. On DraftKings, they’re exceeded by a few Dodger bats, including Trea Turner (183 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP since LY), Mookie Betts (125 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (118 wRC+, .184 ISO) against Jose Quintana (RHBs .386 wOBA/.382 xwOBA since LY, but LHBs .228 wOBA/.242 xwOBA). Max Muncy (136 wRC+, .244 ISO) also finds himself among the top 10 projected bats on DraftKings.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projections on DK are the White Sox (4.32) against the Guardians (batters from either side above a .330 xwOBA against Zach Plesac since LY). Luis Robert (126 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Tim Anderson (119 wRC+, .151 ISO) own those top projections here in which just one batter in the projected lineup (Leury Garcia) falls below both a 115 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP since last season. Jose Abreu (115 wRC+, .187 ISO) is also a top 10 projected bat on FanDuel, where two San Diego bats are also added to the mix against Kyle Hendricks (batters from either side above a .315 wOBA & xwOBA since LY). Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .212 ISO) is on an early season MVP run (233 wRC+ last 30 days), while Jake Cronenworth (111 wRC+, .189 ISO) owns the second highest ISO in the projected San Diego lineup against RHP since 2021. Top projected Marlins or Diamondbacks are hard to find, despite their placement at the top of the board in terms of team run totals tonight.