DFS Alerts
Jed Lowrie (undisclosed) scratched Sunday
Jed Lowrie (undisclosed) scratched Sunday
As reported by: Matthew Kawahara via Twitter
Royals-Orioles postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
Game update: Royals-Orioles postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the Baltimore Orioles via Twitter Mets-Phillies postponed Saturday due to rain
Game update: Mets-Phillies postponed Saturday due to rain
As reported by: the Philadelphia Phillies via Twitter Trevor Larnach (lower body) scratched Saturday
Trevor Larnach (lower body) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter Rangers-Yankees postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
Game update: Rangers-Yankees postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Carson Kelly (abdominal) scratched Friday
Carson Kelly (abdominal) scratched Friday
As reported by: Nick Piecoro via Twitter The start of Pirates-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
Game update: The start of Pirates-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter Austin Meadows (illness) scratched Friday
Austin Meadows (illness) scratched Friday
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Royals-Orioles postponed Friday due to inclement weather
Game update: Royals-Orioles postponed Friday due to inclement weather
As reported by: Anne Rogers via Twitter Blue Jays-Guardians postponed Friday due to inclement weather
Game update: Blue Jays-Guardians postponed Friday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the Cleveland Guardians via Twitter Stacking Projections Really Like This Offense
On what is now an 11 game slate with two cancellations, the only three teams above 4.5 implied runs (Astros, Red Sox, Diamondbacks) are the only three teams projected for double digit stack ownership on DraftKings, while only the Angels (no current team total) and Red Sox currently get there on FanDuel. In an interesting turn of events, the Royals come through to “Smash” the slate most often in simulations, at barely less than 10% of the time, while they also project as the top value stack on either site with the Diamondbacks the only other stack in double digits. For more on Leverage Ratings and which road offenses could help win a GPP tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Both This Pitcher & Opposing Offense Project to be Worth Their Prices
While top of the board pitchers are dropping by the hour, if players are looking for potential value bats, Baltimore looks like a great place to start. It may sound a bit odd, but due to pricing, it appears Jordan Lyles is a top projected point per dollar pitching value, but so are Kansas City bats against him. Four Royals appear among the top 11 projected values on either site with Edward Olivares (120 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected value on DraftKings and costs $2.5K on either site, as he’s expected to lead off again tonight. Ryan O’Hearn (74 wRC+, .157 ISO) and top prospect M.J. Melendez are top 10 projected value on either site, while Andrew Benintendi (114 wRC+, .163 ISO) reaches that mark on FD ($2.6K) with Michael A. Taylor (70 wRC+, .107 ISO) doing so on DK ($2.3K). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles since last season, but with alterations to Camden Yards to make it more pitcher friendly, the Royals land squarely in the middle of the board with a 3.83 implied run line.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third highest implied run line tonight (4.59) and are also the only other team to feature multiple top 10 projected values. They accomplish this on FanDuel. Cooper Hummel (151 wRC+, .185 ISO) is the top point per dollar projected value tonight on FD ($2.1K) and also finds himself inside the top 10 on DK ($2.7K). He’s joined as a top 10 FD projected value by David Peralta (95 wRC+, .141 ISO). Chad Kuhl’s worst estimator this year is a 4.02 SIERA, while he owns a 13.5 SwStr%, but LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.
Couple of Rookie Pitchers Expected to Struggle Against Top Bats
Friday night’s now just 11 game slate includes just a single team (Houston Astros) above five implied runs with just two more above (Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks) exceeding four and a half. Houston (5.07) could have their way with a young Detroit pitcher. Beau Brieske was not a name ever mentioned when talking about the pitching future of the Tigers, but a few injuries and here we are. A 4.3 SwStr% and three home runs on five barrels (16.7%) over two starts won’t do much to make people remember him either. He’s also only thrown 64 innings above A ball, but has just a 40+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs. The Red Sox (4.8) have just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP and Vince Velasquez has looked respectable at points this season, though still has major contact profile issues (92.1 mph EV, 15.1% Barrels/BBE, 6.23 xERA). The Diamondbacks (4.59) are a bit surprising. They have just a 60 wRC+ at home and Chad Kuhl is running estimators between a 2.90 xERA and 4.02 SIERA with a 13+ SwStr%.
While all three teams feature players among the top 10 projected batters (PlateIQ) tonight, the Astros are the only one of the three teams to feature multiple batters and one of just two teams overall to do so, although a couple of Red Sox just miss. Brieske has shown a massive reverse split in his abbreviated major league work. This includes over a 200 point wOBA split and nearly 200 point xwOBA one as well with RHBs above .400 in each case. No Astros actually appear with top five overall projected point totals currently, but Jose Altuve (132 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Yordan Alvarez (149 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Alex Bregman (116 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all top 10.
Rafael Devers (148 wRC+, .318 ISO) currently projects as a top three bat tonight, but is not joined by any other Red Sox inside the top 10, though J.D. Martinez (138 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (142 wRC+, .207 ISO) sit just outside of it. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Velasquez since last season. You can probably guess that Shohei Ohtani (144 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Mike Trout (219 wRC+, .387 ISO) are top three projected batters against Joan Adon. We don’t yet have a team run total for the Angels, as they have yet to name a pitcher, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if they end up as a fourth team above four and a half. Adon has some interesting movement on his pitches, but struggles to throw them in the strike zone. Often falling behind, batters are chasing just a quarter of his pitches out of the zone, leading to a 6.9 SwStr% and 7.2 K-BB%. When batters do swing, they’re hitting it really hard too (91 mph EV, 17.6% Barrels/BBE). He has a 7.33 ERA and we can still say he’s fortunate that just four of 13 barrels have left the yard. His xERA is a half run higher. LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs own a .351 xwOBA.
Rookie Pitcher Projects as a Potential Top Value
Among pitchers below $7K tonight, the biggest standout is rookie Josh Winder. He is an older prospect (25), who will be making his second major league start for the Twins. He struck out seven of 20 Rays in his first after striking out five of 41 in relief, but he does have a 12.2 SwStr%. Winder is an intriguing prospect (#4 in org, 50 FV grade via Fangraphs), who only reached AA last year for the first time due to the pandemic and then was shut down at AAA with a shoulder injury. He’s generated a K-BB above 17% at every level of minor league play. Winder’s thrown four pitches more than 30 times at the major league level with only his four-seam fastball lacking a 30+ Whiff% and sub-.200 xwOBA. He gets a great matchup with the Twins hosting the A’s (76 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP). When you add it all up, Winder is currently a top three projected point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on either site tonight.
As far as other sub-$7K pitchers that players may want to consider in their secondary slot on DraftKings, Vince Velasquez threw 5.2 shutout innings at the Angels last time out and even though the Twins previously touched him up for five runs over 3.1 innings, he’s struck out 12 of his last 39 batters with just a single walk. Once again though, the issue is an awful contact profile that includes a 92.1 mph EV and 15.1% Barrels/BBE with just three of eight barrels leaving the yard. A 6.23 xERA is more than a run and a half above all other estimators that go as low as a 3.83 SIERA. We’ve reached the point where we have to believe in the contact profile for this pitcher though. With Velasquez, you play with fire, but the upside is not lacking against a Boston offense with just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP.
Lastly, we have to mention Jordan Lyles, but only because he is so cheap ($5.1K). Considering the alterations to Camden Yards and the team that will be visiting it tonight (Royals 79 wRC+, but just a 19.9 K% vs RHP), Lyles projects as tonight’s top DraftKings value. He is producing the expected numbers through five starts. That includes a 9.2 K-BB%, 10.6% Barrels/BBE with an ERA and estimators all between a 4.26 SIERA and 5.26 xERA. This is purely a matchup and price play for those who are okay with punting this spot in their lineup for offense.
Mid-Range Pitching Options Anchored by Workhorse
If you don’t like the abundance of top of the board arms or at least their weather forecasts, the middle of the board does offer some solutions tonight. Alex Cobb lasted just 10 batters in his return from the IL, not due to re-injury, but because the Nationals spanked him. While four of the five runs were unearned, he walked three without a strikeout, but has still struck out 14 of 50 batters faced this year with just two additional walks, a 73.3 GB% and 85.3 mph EV. Just as importantly, he’s continued to hold his spring training velocity spike. Expect him to be better going forward. He may not last much more than five innings, but costs less than $8.5K at home against the Cardinals (90 wRC+, 18.4 K% vs RHP). At his lower price point ($8.2K on FD), Cobb projects as a top five point per dollar value (PlateIQ), but may not last long enough for the Quality Start.
Luis Garcia surpassed 80 pitches for the first time this year in his last start, but he’s been efficient enough to have recorded at least two sixth inning outs three starts in a row now. The strikeouts are down a bit (22.4%), but he’s walked just five batters. With just a 30 GB%, five of eight barrels (13.3%) have left the yard. Estimators range widely from a 3.44 xERA to a 5.17 FIP with his ERA (4.15) sitting somewhere in between. At $7.4K, he projects as the second best value on DraftKings at home against the Tigers (83 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP).
Sandy Alcantara has not exceeded six strikeouts (21%) in any of his five starts and the velocity is down a bit, but the 12.2 SwStr% is still slightly above his career rate. With nearly half his contact (48.8%) on the ground and an 85.7 mph EV, Alcantara continues the excellent contact management portion of his game, allowing just three barrels (3.7%), all of which have left the yard. The biggest flaw has been an 11.3 BB%. While a 3.16 xERA is in line with a 2.90 ERA, other estimators exceed four, but should improve as the gap between his walks and strikeouts widen. The Padres have a 102 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs RHP, but $7.7K on DraftKings for the high workload floor you’re almost certain to get from Alcantara is too low. He’s the sixth best projected value on that site.