Daily Fantasy Alerts - Breaking MLB News and Updates Page 108

Freddie Freeman

Los Angeles Dodgers

5/09/22, 2:58 PM ET

Top Offense Could Still Offer Positive Leverage Rating

Stacking projections on a nine game DraftKings slate should be a bit different than on FanDuel with just seven and we find that immediately in finding the Dodgers projection for the highest stack ownership (15.1%) and Smash rate (17.2%) on DK, the only site where they are available tonight. Early projections, which are fluid and change throughout the day, have five teams projected between 10-13% ownership on FanDuel, while five teams (not necessarily the same ones) “smash” the slate anywhere between 10.5 to 12% of the time in simulations. Top stacking value is projected to belong to either team in the Miami/Arizona game on DraftKings, while Tigers (16.1%) are barely projected as a slightly better value than the Marlins (16%) on FanDuel. To read more about a couple of standouts on the west coast in terms of Leverage Rating and why the Dodgers may rate well themselves, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

By: MTro86 Matt Trollo

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Pavin Smith

Arizona Diamondbacks

5/09/22, 2:28 PM ET

Top Team Runs Lines May Be Top Values Tonight

Daily fantasy players may be hard pressed to find many Marlins or Diamondbacks among the top overall projected bats tonight (PlateIQ), despite their standing atop the board at 4.5 implied runs each, but considering their lower price tags, you’ll certainly find several of them among the top projected point per dollar values tonight. Bryan De La Cruz (106 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is currently the top projected value on DraftKings (fourth on FanDuel) against Humberto Castellanos (batters from either side of the plate above a .320 wOBA since LY). De La Cruz costs the minimum on either site. Garrett Cooper (120 wRC+, .144 ISO) joins him as a top value on both sites (< $3K), while Miguel Rojas (73 wRC+) reaches that status only on DK ($2.6K). Josh Rojas (99 wRC+, .145 ISO) is currently the top projected FanDuel value against Eleiser Hernandez (LHBs .416 wOBA, .368 xwOBA since LY), where David Peralta (97 wRC+, .155 ISO) joins him among the top 10. Over on DraftKings, it’s a different pair of Diamondbacks that project as top 10 values, including Pavin Smith (108 wRC+, .165 ISO), who costs $3.1K and min-priced top prospect Alek Thomas, who had just a 116 wRC+ at AAA this year, but 168 last year and is not yet available on FanDuel.

An additional team that shows up with multiple projected top 10 values is the San Francisco Giants, who generally have several cheap platoon bats atop the order when they face LHP. In this case, that lefty (Austin Gomber) has been pretty good this year (26.5 K-BB% last three starts), but RHBs do have a wOBA & xwOBA within three points of .320 against him since last year. There is some later game pinch hit risk here, but Mauricio Dubon (105 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP since LY), Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Darin Ruf (157 wRC+, .278 ISO) are all fairly cheap tonight.

By: MTro86 Matt Trollo

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Trea Turner

Philadelphia Phillies

5/09/22, 1:59 PM ET

Just One Offense Above 4.5 Implied Runs Tonight

DraftKings has elected to include two pre-7pm ET starts on a nine game slate and with five of those games on the west coast tonight, there’s a strong likelihood DK players won’t have full lineup disclosure pre-lock tonight. Fanduel, perhaps more conveniently, will start at the normal time and include just seven games. Perhaps the largest implication from an offensive standpoint of this decision is that FD players are looking at a board where not a single offense exceeds four and a half implied runs this afternoon. Sure, the run scoring environment is down all around baseball, but this is still an outlier slate. The Dodgers (4.67), only available on DK, top the board overall, while both teams in the Miami at Arizona game are at exactly four and a half run team totals.

Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .143 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .333 ISO) are currently the top two projected hitters on FanDuel tonight. They’ll face second time starter Jeffrey Springs, but mostly a strong Tampa Bay bullpen on Monday. On DraftKings, they’re exceeded by a few Dodger bats, including Trea Turner (183 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP since LY), Mookie Betts (125 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (118 wRC+, .184 ISO) against Jose Quintana (RHBs .386 wOBA/.382 xwOBA since LY, but LHBs .228 wOBA/.242 xwOBA). Max Muncy (136 wRC+, .244 ISO) also finds himself among the top 10 projected bats on DraftKings.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projections on DK are the White Sox (4.32) against the Guardians (batters from either side above a .330 xwOBA against Zach Plesac since LY). Luis Robert (126 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Tim Anderson (119 wRC+, .151 ISO) own those top projections here in which just one batter in the projected lineup (Leury Garcia) falls below both a 115 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP since last season. Jose Abreu (115 wRC+, .187 ISO) is also a top 10 projected bat on FanDuel, where two San Diego bats are also added to the mix against Kyle Hendricks (batters from either side above a .315 wOBA & xwOBA since LY). Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .212 ISO) is on an early season MVP run (233 wRC+ last 30 days), while Jake Cronenworth (111 wRC+, .189 ISO) owns the second highest ISO in the projected San Diego lineup against RHP since 2021. Top projected Marlins or Diamondbacks are hard to find, despite their placement at the top of the board in terms of team run totals tonight.

By: MTro86 Matt Trollo

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Luis Castillo

Chicago White Sox

5/09/22, 1:26 PM ET

Several Mid-Priced Pitchers in High Upside Matchups

Luis Castillo makes his season debut against the Brewers, costing exactly $8.8K on either site. His last two rehab starts were against AAA batters. Striking out 12 of 34 batters with five walks, he completed exactly two trips through the order his last time out and should be built up for nearly a full workload here. The cost is probably a bit too high and current PlateIQ projections have seven pitchers in front of him, but the Brewers do have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this season. Julio Urias is still down 1.8 mph from last season and hasn’t shown any signs of reclaiming lost velocity in recent starts. The result has been an 11.7 K-BB% (9.0 SwStr%). He has maintained a great contact profile with almost twice as many popups (seven) as barrels (four). That gives him a 2.47 xERA that’s the only estimator nearly within two runs of his 1.88 ERA (.188 BABIP, 6.5 HR/FB). Contact neutral estimators are above four. The Pirates have just an 89 wRC+ and 21.7 K% vs LHP and the park in Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power. Urias currently projects extremely well tonight, but projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. He may be worth going under-weight on if a current ownership projection of around 40% remains consistent. For more on mid-to-low range pitching options, including a few who project as strong values in high strikeout matchups, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

By: MTro86 Matt Trollo

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Brandon Woodruff

Milwaukee Brewers

5/09/22, 1:14 PM ET

The Top Pitcher Who Could Go Under-Owned in a Great Spot

We start the week off with a peculiar either nine of 11 game slate with a majority of west coast games (five). Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher on the board to reach the $10K price point on both sites and is an extremely expensive $11.1K on FanDuel. Rodon struck out fewer than eight for the first time this season last time out, but still published a quality start on the road against the Dodgers. Even with just three against the Dodgers, the strikeout rate still soars above the board at 36.9% (14.2 SwStr%). He has allowed just three barrels (5.1%) with the worst of his estimators still well below three (2.72 xFIP). The Rockies own a 125 wRC+ with just a 17.2 K% vs LHP this year, but only a 64 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall. Rodon currently owns the top point total projections on FanDuel by a decent margin and also on DraftKings by a smaller margin. Remember that PlateIQ projections are updated and remain fluid throughout the day, though we shouldn’t expect anyone to pass up Rodon tonight. This, of course, is expected to make him immensely popular as well. Does the small sample success of the Rockies against LHP this year give us enough of a reason to come in under-weight on him?

MacKenzie Gore is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $10K on either site. He does this on FanDuel, but even his DraftKings price ($9.7K) seems a bit high. Four starts into his career, Gore looks like the real deal with a 25.9 K% and all estimators below four. However, pry a bit deeper and you’ll find an 8.8 SwStr%, 10.6 BB% and 90.4 mph EV. Furthermore, 17 of his 22 strikeouts have come against Cincinnati. We shouldn’t be sold yet. However, he has hit the 100 pitch mark in each of his last two starts, so there are no workload concerns and the Cubs have a 22 K% vs LHP, while Gore is a top three projected arm on Fanduel and top five on DraftKings. With ownership projections currently around 10%, he could be worth a shot in some GPP lineups.

Michael Kopech is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $9K on both sites, though Brandon Woodruff would do so if he were available on FanDuel. Kopech has an above average 25.3 K% through five starts, but, like Gore, there are some concerning numbers below the surface. He’s had a swinging strike rate below eight percent in three of his five starts and owns a double digit walk rate (12.1%). He hasn’t hurt himself with just three barrels allowed (5.4%), but none have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators hover around four, nearly three runs above his 1.17 ERA. He may be a bit over-valued against a Cleveland offense that’s been very good against RHP (130 wRC+, 18.7 K%). Kopech is projected just outside the top three on FanDuel and just outside the top five on DraftKings. Again, like Gore, the allure here might be the lower ownership projections, despite the flaws.

Since striking out just four of his first 41 batters with as many walks, Woodruff has struck out 27 of his last 63 with a 16.1 SwStr% and just four walks. That has him up to a 22.1 K-BB% over five starts with his worst estimator (3.30 xFIP) still nearly two runs below his 5.18 ERA (60.3 LOB%). Woodruff is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on DraftKings and if his current ownership projection remains true, he’s expected to be in about one-quarter of lineups. That could make him a great GPP play in Cincinnati (76 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).

By: MTro86 Matt Trollo