DFS Alerts
Several Mid-Priced Pitchers in High Upside Matchups
Luis Castillo makes his season debut against the Brewers, costing exactly $8.8K on either site. His last two rehab starts were against AAA batters. Striking out 12 of 34 batters with five walks, he completed exactly two trips through the order his last time out and should be built up for nearly a full workload here. The cost is probably a bit too high and current PlateIQ projections have seven pitchers in front of him, but the Brewers do have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this season. Julio Urias is still down 1.8 mph from last season and hasn’t shown any signs of reclaiming lost velocity in recent starts. The result has been an 11.7 K-BB% (9.0 SwStr%). He has maintained a great contact profile with almost twice as many popups (seven) as barrels (four). That gives him a 2.47 xERA that’s the only estimator nearly within two runs of his 1.88 ERA (.188 BABIP, 6.5 HR/FB). Contact neutral estimators are above four. The Pirates have just an 89 wRC+ and 21.7 K% vs LHP and the park in Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power. Urias currently projects extremely well tonight, but projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. He may be worth going under-weight on if a current ownership projection of around 40% remains consistent. For more on mid-to-low range pitching options, including a few who project as strong values in high strikeout matchups, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
The Top Pitcher Who Could Go Under-Owned in a Great Spot
We start the week off with a peculiar either nine of 11 game slate with a majority of west coast games (five). Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher on the board to reach the $10K price point on both sites and is an extremely expensive $11.1K on FanDuel. Rodon struck out fewer than eight for the first time this season last time out, but still published a quality start on the road against the Dodgers. Even with just three against the Dodgers, the strikeout rate still soars above the board at 36.9% (14.2 SwStr%). He has allowed just three barrels (5.1%) with the worst of his estimators still well below three (2.72 xFIP). The Rockies own a 125 wRC+ with just a 17.2 K% vs LHP this year, but only a 64 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall. Rodon currently owns the top point total projections on FanDuel by a decent margin and also on DraftKings by a smaller margin. Remember that PlateIQ projections are updated and remain fluid throughout the day, though we shouldn’t expect anyone to pass up Rodon tonight. This, of course, is expected to make him immensely popular as well. Does the small sample success of the Rockies against LHP this year give us enough of a reason to come in under-weight on him?
MacKenzie Gore is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $10K on either site. He does this on FanDuel, but even his DraftKings price ($9.7K) seems a bit high. Four starts into his career, Gore looks like the real deal with a 25.9 K% and all estimators below four. However, pry a bit deeper and you’ll find an 8.8 SwStr%, 10.6 BB% and 90.4 mph EV. Furthermore, 17 of his 22 strikeouts have come against Cincinnati. We shouldn’t be sold yet. However, he has hit the 100 pitch mark in each of his last two starts, so there are no workload concerns and the Cubs have a 22 K% vs LHP, while Gore is a top three projected arm on Fanduel and top five on DraftKings. With ownership projections currently around 10%, he could be worth a shot in some GPP lineups.
Michael Kopech is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $9K on both sites, though Brandon Woodruff would do so if he were available on FanDuel. Kopech has an above average 25.3 K% through five starts, but, like Gore, there are some concerning numbers below the surface. He’s had a swinging strike rate below eight percent in three of his five starts and owns a double digit walk rate (12.1%). He hasn’t hurt himself with just three barrels allowed (5.4%), but none have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators hover around four, nearly three runs above his 1.17 ERA. He may be a bit over-valued against a Cleveland offense that’s been very good against RHP (130 wRC+, 18.7 K%). Kopech is projected just outside the top three on FanDuel and just outside the top five on DraftKings. Again, like Gore, the allure here might be the lower ownership projections, despite the flaws.
Since striking out just four of his first 41 batters with as many walks, Woodruff has struck out 27 of his last 63 with a 16.1 SwStr% and just four walks. That has him up to a 22.1 K-BB% over five starts with his worst estimator (3.30 xFIP) still nearly two runs below his 5.18 ERA (60.3 LOB%). Woodruff is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on DraftKings and if his current ownership projection remains true, he’s expected to be in about one-quarter of lineups. That could make him a great GPP play in Cincinnati (76 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).
Marcus Stroman (undisclosed) scratched Sunday, placed on IL
Marcus Stroman (undisclosed) scratched Sunday, placed on IL
As reported by: Zach Zaidman via Twitter
Brandon Belt scratched Sunday
Brandon Belt scratched Sunday
As reported by: Maria I. Guardado via Twitter Jed Lowrie (undisclosed) scratched Sunday
Jed Lowrie (undisclosed) scratched Sunday
As reported by: Matthew Kawahara via Twitter Royals-Orioles postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
Game update: Royals-Orioles postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the Baltimore Orioles via Twitter Mets-Phillies postponed Saturday due to rain
Game update: Mets-Phillies postponed Saturday due to rain
As reported by: the Philadelphia Phillies via Twitter Trevor Larnach (lower body) scratched Saturday
Trevor Larnach (lower body) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter Rangers-Yankees postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
Game update: Rangers-Yankees postponed Saturday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Carson Kelly (abdominal) scratched Friday
Carson Kelly (abdominal) scratched Friday
As reported by: Nick Piecoro via Twitter The start of Pirates-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
Game update: The start of Pirates-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter Austin Meadows (illness) scratched Friday
Austin Meadows (illness) scratched Friday
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Royals-Orioles postponed Friday due to inclement weather
Game update: Royals-Orioles postponed Friday due to inclement weather
As reported by: Anne Rogers via Twitter Blue Jays-Guardians postponed Friday due to inclement weather
Game update: Blue Jays-Guardians postponed Friday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the Cleveland Guardians via Twitter Stacking Projections Really Like This Offense
On what is now an 11 game slate with two cancellations, the only three teams above 4.5 implied runs (Astros, Red Sox, Diamondbacks) are the only three teams projected for double digit stack ownership on DraftKings, while only the Angels (no current team total) and Red Sox currently get there on FanDuel. In an interesting turn of events, the Royals come through to “Smash” the slate most often in simulations, at barely less than 10% of the time, while they also project as the top value stack on either site with the Diamondbacks the only other stack in double digits. For more on Leverage Ratings and which road offenses could help win a GPP tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.