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Weather Causing Chaos with Friday Night's Top Arms

Friday night features one of the largest (but getting smaller by the hour) and most chaotic slates we’ve seen so far this season. Already one game down (TEX/NYY) with several more in the northeast in danger, we can add openers, bullpen games, rookies and still unconfirmed starting pitchers to the list of things that make this slate quite volatile. We started the day with, perhaps, the best pitching board of the season. No fewer than five starting pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site. Four now, when we cross off Gerrit Cole. Three, as we’ve just lost Max Scherzer in Philly as well. Kevin Gausman & Shane Bieber also carry some risk, though the latter is just under $10K on FanDuel. That still leaves Eric Lauer and Yu Darvish. Scherzer was the top overall projected pitcher and one of the top values. Ownership projections will certainly have to be reconfigured in his absence.

Lauer is outside the top seven projected point totals on either site, but projection systems are often extremely slow to pick up on actual talent changes. Regression is simply always built in. However, Lauer is now a flame throwing, power pitcher because the Brewers needed more of those. He’s struck out 24 of his last 50 batters with a 17.5 SwStr% and owns a 31.2 K-BB% through four starts. Three of five barrels (9.4%) have left the yard and while all estimators are above his 1.93 ERA, a 3.08 DRA is the only one that even reaches three. Problematically, he’s in a difficult park, facing a difficult offense (Braves 110 wRC+, but 25.5 K% vs LHP this year) with winds blowing fairly strongly out to left. Perhaps, most importantly, He carries little weather related risk. For more on the other top pitchers tonight, including the top two projected arms overall, see Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mets-Phillies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Mets-Phillies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Rangers-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Rangers-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Dodgers-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Dodgers-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Tom Murphy (undisclosed) scratched Thursday

Tom Murphy (undisclosed) scratched Thursday.

Mauricio Llovera will start for the Giants on Thursday

Mauricio Llovera will start for the Giants on Thursday. Llovera is expected to serve as the starter (though will likely only throw an inning or so) in a bullpen game for the Giants, though this has not been confirmed as of yet.

One Team Rules Tonight's Stacking Projections

With only three teams above a 4.5 or even 4.0 implied run line and no team reaching a five run total on Thursday night’s six game slate, some of tonight’s early stacking projections (fluid and subject to change) are fairly straight forward. All three teams reach a double digit ownership projection on both sites, with the addition of Baltimore on FanDuel, but only the Twins exceed 15% on either site with a solid combination of top projected hitters overall (Buxton, Correa) and values on both DK & FD. Simulations also find the Twins the only lineup “smashing” the slate more than 15% of the time. Can you guess which team projects as the top value stack on either site? Yup, Twins again. While you might think this makes the Twins a poor leveraging choice, that’s actually not true according to current projections. They certainly don’t have the highest Leverage Rating, but they do have a positive one on either site. For more on the teams with top Leverage Ratings tonight, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Projected Bats, Top Projected Values...This Lineup Has it All

No single team reaches a five run team total on Thursday night’s six game slate, though three offenses clearly separate from the rest of the board, all within a 4.5 to 4.75 implied run range currently. We’re looking at the Phillies (4.75), hosting Taijuan Walker and the Mets, followed by the Twins (4.71), in Baltmore vs Spenser Watkins, and Astros (4.66) at home against Tarik Skubal. It’s difficult to say any of those spots are completely ideal to attack, only because Baltimore’s recent park alterations seem to have made a massive difference to the scoring environment.

Concerning some early afternoon batter projections (PlateIQ), which are fluid and always subject to change, you’ll find that eight of the top 10 overall projected hitter point totals come from those three lineups with only Manny Machado (vs Jesus Luzardo) and Cedric Mullins (vs Chris Archer) standing out. Byron Buxton (175 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Carlos Correa (127 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the top projected batters on the board. Spenser Watkins has estimators more than double his 2.55 ERA, as he’s walked as many as he’s struck out (eight) with a 90.3 mph EV. He’s kept more than half his contact on the ground (52.5%), but has just a .211 BABIP. Just two of his five barrels (8.5%) have left the yard. A 3.79 DRA is his only estimator below four and a half, so he’s certainly pitching above his head, whether it’s the park or not. RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him since last year with 11 home runs 179 PAs. Jorge Polanco (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) joins them inside the top 10. There’s also the matter that Twins’ bats come in as four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel with a list that includes Correa, Jose Miranda ($2K), Luis Arraez (117 wRC+) and Gary Sanchez (.191 ISO). Nick Gordon (87 wRC+) and Trevor Larnach (107 wRC+) join Miranda ($2K) as top five projected values on DraftKings. Pricing makes Minnesota a very easy stack tonight on either site.

Jose Altuve (115 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Alex Bregman (126 wRC+, .150 ISO) are the top Houston projected bats, but Altuve is questionable tonight and while RHBs own a .338 wOBA (.366 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, he’s changed his pitch mix this year to generate more grounders and fewer barrels, walks and strikeouts. Taijuan Walker makes his third start of the year, all against the Phillies, with an IL stint mixed in. While he had a near 40 point reverse split by actual results, Statcast has batters from either side within five points of a .325 xwOBA against him since last year. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since last season), who has been hurting himself, Kyle Schwarber (156 wRC+, .362 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (138 wRC+, .249 ISO) all project as top of the board bats against him.

Has This Pitcher Improved By Dropping His K Rate?

The most interesting mid-range pitching option on the board is actually just below the top arms in terms of both cost and projections. The Marlins have to be thrilled with what they’ve gotten out of Jesus Luzardo so far. The walk rate is still a bit high (11%), but with a 34.1 K% (14.0 SwStr%). It’s been a bit inconsistent with single game swinging strike rates ranging from 5.5% to 21.8%, but hopefully he can round it all out eventually. The important part is that the upside is still there and is further enforced by a nearly mile and half per hour velocity spike, though that’s been inconsistent too. A 3.57 DRA is the only estimator above his 3.10 ERA. He’s in a pitcher’s park in San Diego, but the Padres have a 119 wRC+ vs LHP and the entire top half of the projected lineup is below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season.

Projections also favor Jose Urquidy in a home matchup against the Tigers (82 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). Six strikeouts last time out were one less than his total over his first three starts. That pushed his strikeout rate up to merely 15.1% and with just 29.6% of his contact on the ground and a 92.6 mph EV, Statcast spits out an ugly 7.13 xERA. The good news is that it’s his only estimator above a 5.95 ERA, though none dip below four and a half. He’s at least helped himself out slightly with a 3.5 BB%. This is purely a matchup and price play. Urquidy is less than $8K on either site.

On the other side of the field will be Tarik Skubal, perhaps the most interesting low priced pitcher on the board, though that only applies to DraftKings, where’s nearly $3K less than on FanDuel. A S22.7 K% is a three point drop from last season, but a four point drop in his walk rate has resulted in an increase to his K-BB (19.3%). The biggest problem last year was the 58 barrels (13.9%). To combat that, he’s nearly doubled his sinker percentage to almost a quarter of his pitches this year with a big jump in his ground ball rate (50.8%) through four starts. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.2%), all of which have stayed in the yard. However, he still has just one estimator (3.40 DRA) above his 3.05 ERA. Trading off a few strikeouts to avoid barrels may not be the sexiest fantasy move a pitcher can make, but it’s had a positive overall result for Skubal so far. Of course, the problem here is that the Astros don’t strike out a lot. Six of nine in the projected lineup are well below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season. However, Skubal won’t need that many to pay off $6.5K. Current projections see Skubal as the fifth best point per dollar value on DK and second best (behind Chris Archer) for less than $8K.

No Shortage of Top Arms on a Short Slate

Despite a mere six game slate starting at 6:45 ET tonight, there is no shortage of top tier pitching on Thursday night. Both Logan Webb and Shane McClanahan breach the $10K mark on FanDuel ($9K on DK), while Aaron Nola misses by just $100 on FD (just $8K on DK). And we didn’t even mention the reigning AL Cy Young winner, who’s available for less than $9K on either site. These are the top four projected pitchers according to PlateIQ projections, but just not in that order. In fact, Ray is the top projected pitcher in LineupHQ, followed by Nola, Webb and McClanahan. This also makes Ray the potential top value on FanDuel and both Ray and Nola top DraftKings values. For more on tonight’s top arms, including which one of the above pitchers has a good chance of beating his current projections, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog

The start of Nationals-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Nationals-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel scratched Wednesday, placed on COVID IL

Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel scratched Wednesday, placed on COVID IL

The Stack That Projects For Far More Value Than Any Other

This afternoon’s stacking projections for a seven game slate are going to tell us some obvious things. The four teams that reach four and a half implied runs or higher are expected to be the most highly owned stacks on DraftKings and FanDuel for the most part. Simulations see only Colorado smashing the slate more than 10% of the time, which might be a bit of a surprise on a smaller slate, but then not so much of one when you consider how far above everyone else their team run total is. The only major outlier in terms of Value% is the Orioles above 30% on FanDuel, where nobody in the lineup costs more than $3.2K against Dylan Bundy (RHBs .349 wOBA since LY). For more, including the team with a surprisingly high Leverage Rating tonight, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Low Cost Offense That Could Light Things Up Tonight

There’s some separation at the top of the board between the only three teams above 4.5 implied runs on a seven game Wednesday night slate. At the top, the Rockies (5.72) sit alone, as they’ll host Patrick Corbin (RHBs .386 wOBA since 2021), more than half a run above the Brewers (5.12), who have picked it up with a team 126 wRC+ over the last week and will be facing Vladimir Gutierrez (-4.8 K-BB%). Nearly half a run below them sits the other Coors offense tonight, the Nationals (4.78). Austin Gomber has been perfectly fine with a 15.0 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE, which does make him fairly vulnerable at Coors.

Perusing the PlateIQ hitter projections, the top four batters come from these teams: Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP since 2021), C.J. Cron (158 wRC+, .309 ISO vs LHP since LY), Juan Soto (124 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (117 wRC+, .197 ISO). Colorado pushes a third batter, Connor Joe (148 wRC+, .208 ISO) inside the top 10, while Kolten Wong (106 wRC+, .175 ISO) joins Yelich. The Boston Red Sox, at exactly 4.5 implied runs, are the only other team with multiple top 10 projected hitters in their lineup tonight. In this case, it’ll be Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .306 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (119 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Rafael Devers (106 wRC+, .123 ISO) against rookie Reid Detmers (RHBs .374 wOBA).

Considering that Vladimir Gutierrez’s contact profile is fairly average behind the -4.8 K-BB% and that the Milwaukee lineup doesn’t really have a ton of power, this is certainly a spot where you don’t want to pick and choose batters, rather than a full stack to get exposure to all the base-runners who may cross the plate. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA against Gutierrez since last season and the great news is that Milwaukee bats are fairly cheap, especially on FanDuel, where only Willy Adames costs more than $3.3K.

Mid-Range Pitcher with a 19.0 K-BB% Despite Velocity Drop

We can pretty easily cover your sub-$9K pitching options (excluding Freddy Peralta) fairy quickly by immediately omitting Austin Gomber & Patrick Corbin at Coors, the still barrel-prone Yusei Kikuchi against the flaming hot and predominantly right-handed Yankees and Vladimir Gutierrez’s -4.8 K-BB%. Everyone else might have some sort of argument. We can start with Dylan Bundy, who current projections (PlateIQ) see as potentially the third best pitcher on the board tonight. Despite sitting below 90 mph on average, Bundy has produced a 19.0 K-BB% with only 32.3% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. However, he has allowed six barrels (9.7%) with just two of them leaving the yard. He’ll return to a more pitcher friendly Baltimore park with his worst estimator being a 3.11 SIERA. Baltimore bats with an 85 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP are pretty pitcher friendly too.

Garrett Whitlock hasn’t seen much dropoff in transitioning from the pen to a starting role, but he also hasn’t been fully stretched out yet (61 pitch high). The Angels have a 114 wRC+, but 24.3 K% vs RHP. Kyle Bradish had a respectable major league debut. While he only struck out two of the 23 Red Sox he faced, he did so with a 9.9 SwStr% and induced swings on one-third of his pitches outside the strike zone. If there is a concern, it’s that he allowed three barrels (15%) on a 92.8 mph EV. Bradish produced a 17.5 K-BB% over 86.2 AAA innings last year and has a 45+ Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. He costs just $5.5K on DK at home against the Twins (106 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP). Kyle Hendricks is less than $7.5K and may have the Wrigley winds at his back against the White Sox (71 wRC+, but 19.4 K% vs RHP). A 9.1 K-BB% with a career low 35.5 GB% and career high 9.2% Barrels/BBE generates estimators no lower than a 4.43 SIERA and as high as a 5.67 xERA for Hendricks. A 57.6 F-Strike%, 24.6 O-Swing% and 39.8 Zone% are all career lows.

Reid Detmers is running a perfectly fine 15.5 K-BB% through four starts with a somewhat average ground ball rate and contact profile, though the 90.6 mph EV is a bit high. Estimators run between a 3.61 SIERA and 4.52 FIP, all more than half a run below his ERA. He has an odd combination of a .239 BABIP, but 63.3 LOB%. He costs $8K on the road in Boston (Red Sox 74 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs LHP) on DK, but much lower on FD. A single walk in Tony Gonsolin’s last start still has his walk rate sitting at 11.3%. The good news is that a 13.3 SwStr% projects something much higher than his current 18.3 K%. He’s also generated a 53.1 GB% with just a single barrel (2.0%). Really, it’s just an issue of getting his walk rate back under control so great things can happen. The Giants have a 112 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP, but depending on ownership projections (currently very low), Gonsolin makes for an interesting GPP upside play on this slate.