DFS Alerts

Carlos Santana leading off with a right-handed pitcher on the mound for the Orioles

Carlos Santana has had the opportunity to lead off many games when the Indians face a right-handed pitcher. At first glance, this strategy is surprising considering Santana has an ISO of 0.293 against RHP. One would think that the Indians would want the possibility of men on base when Santana hits his home runs against righties, but maybe they are simply fixating on his 0.382 OBP versus RHPs and are electing to let Santana set the table over Raji Davis and his 0.314 OBP versus right-handed pitchers.

3 reasons to play Cubs today

Firstly, Jerad Eickhoff has a K% of 14.9% on the road (although better to RHB at 21.6%) this year, while allowing a FB% over 38% to right-handed batters on the road. Secondly, the game today will be played at Wrigley and Kevin Roth has cited 15 mph wind out to center, with gusts up to 25 mph. Lastly, the Cubs players who do not hit the ball over the fence today will get an opportunity to steal bases, considering the battery pair of Eickhoff-Rupp has a rating of -1.41 on the RotoGrinders Daily SB Predictor tool. This last fact raises the potential fantasy points even higher for bats like Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist.

Jose Abreu batting 5th in the White Sox lineup, leaving Melky Cabrera to cleanup

Melky Cabrera will bat cleanup for the White Sox today and face Yordano Ventura. Ventura has been worth targeting for the majority of the year, never reaching the form he showed us at times last year. He has been giving up an xFIP of 6.48 to LHBs this year, along with a 39% FB% and a 12.9% HR/FB rate. This is to point out that his 1.42 HR/9 allowed to lefties can not be attributed to bad luck, and his struggles will probably continue against LHB. While Ventura is pitching at home today, Melky Cabrera and his 116 wRC+ versus RHP make for a fine way to target Ventura today.

Kevin Roth’s report is out and mentions the most activity being in the Baltimore vs. Cleveland game. Kevin Roth’s full report, complete with ratings and wind speeds, can be found here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Rick Porcello takes on the Jays at home, making more than a few Blue Jays viable plays

After finishing the 2015 season with an xFIP of 3.87 against LHBs, Porcello has an xFIP of 3.68 through 36 innings. It is safe to say that Porcello will probably fail to dominate LHBs in his career, making some of the Blue Jays lefty bats great complements to any of the usual right-handed power bats. Okay, we don’t have to say that some of the Blue Jays are “hot”, but we will at least say a few are “seeing the ball well.” Over the last 7 days, Josh Donaldson has a wRC+ of 214, Jose Bautista has a wRC+ of 198, and Michael Saunders has a wRC+ of 157. Saunders is not the only LHB to have a productive week, as there was even a Russel Martin sighting, shockingly finishing the week with an wRC+ of 109 and an ISO of 0.300. The start of a new trend or an aberration? Only time will tell…

Norichika Aoki the leadoff hitter with Leonys Martin headed to the DL

Aoki will be the leadoff hitter tonight against left-handed Patrick Dean, who is making his second career major league start. Aoki (.407 wOBA, 167 wRC+) has been picking it up over the last week but is only a tournament option against a left-handed pitcher. Nelson Cruz is an elite target in all league formats and is actually slightly discounted on DK compared to the average salary of his last 7 games. Cruz has a .468 wOBA, 210 wRC+ over the last week and should be able to some damage against Dean at home.

George Springer (.447wOBA, 191 wRC+ L7) is hot since becoming the leadoff hitter for the Astros

Springer belted two home runs last night and faces Matt Shoemaker, who is known as a fly ball pitcher. Springer (.182 ISO vs. RHP) has seen his salary spike to $4.3K, a season-high on DraftKings. Since Shoemaker has been pitching well recently we’ll have to only consider the Astros in tournaments. Colby Rasmus (.245 wOBA L14) has been struggling but deserves some GPP consideration because of Shoemaker’s .445 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats. Jose Altuve has struggled since moving to 2nd in the order and is still too expensive to consider in cash games. His ownership levels should be low in tournaments due to a full slate and recent struggles (.284 wOBA L14).

Hunter Pence could still be in the lineup tonight; will be tested before the game

Pence has been DTD with a hamstring issue and will be tested in the outfield and on the bases before the game. Pence was able to pinch-hit on Monday and Wednesday so it feels like his return is imminent. Pence has already missed 5 games due to the injury.

Minnesota has lowest run projection (3.02) in Seattle

We have little interest in the lowest projected lineup tonight (3.02 runs) because although Felix Hernandez has seen his walks rise and strikeouts decline, he is still generating ground balls (1.98 GB/FB) and weak contact (4.3 Hard-Soft%) in a tough park. On the pitching side, it’s a steep price to pay for batted ball outcomes, but he has been going deep into games and faces a weak Minnesota lineup with a 27.3 K% on the road and 23.3 K% in RHP. Perhaps they can pull him above an average K rate tonight, which is generally the least you need for a cost this high ($11K or higher on either site).

Rockies have some top bats with the top run projection (5.37) at top prices

Matt Cain has pitched a bit better over his last few starts, but he’s pitching in Colorado tonight and has allowed a .399 wOBA to LHBs since last season and a .348 to RHBs that isn’t all that much better. The Rockies project several top overall bats tonight in Blackmon (109 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Carlos Gonzalez (142 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Arenado (127 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and even Trevor Story (106 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP), who remains playable lower in the lineup because he’s a SS and because Coors. Reynolds (98 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and LeMahieu (88 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) aren’t nearly as impressive, but cost less than $4K. Parra (59 wRC+ vs RHP this season) has fallen off the map and may be the bat to omit from stacks along with Tony Wolters (40 wRC+, .062 ISO vs RHP).

Right-handed bats in play against Robbie Ray at Chase Field

Robbie Ray has allowed a .333 wOBA, 38.8 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015 and the Padres have only two left-handed bats in the lineup. Yangervis Solarte (.322 wOBA, .164 ISO vs. LHP) will be the cleanup hitter once again with Wil Myers back in the lineup, batting 2nd. Myers has been dealing with a forearm and wrist injury as of late and has a .317 wOBA, 101 wRC+ vs. LHP this season. He’s expensive on DraftKings ($4,600) but is more playable on FanDuel ($3,100). With his salary so elevated and injuries nagging the first baseman, it’ll be tough to recommend Myers on DK who has a .125 ISO vs. LHP. Matt Kemp is also cheaper on FanDuel ($2.5K) and has a .352 wOBA, .240 ISO vs. LHP but his .178 wOBA L14 takes him out of cash game consideration. Derek Norris .336 wOBA, .194 ISO vs. LHP is only $2.2K on FanDuel but is batting 7th today.

Kevin’s late forecast looks a bit better than his earlier one though there is still a bit of concern in two spots. The White Sox and Royals get a bit of an upgrade in Kansas City, but are not out of the woods entirely. Kevin thinks it’s likely to play, but read his full forecast for on our Weather Page (linked below) for more info on that game and some risk in Colorado as well.

Fulmer had career highs in innings (7) and strikeouts (11) in his last start

Michael Fulmer set career highs with seven innings and 11 strikeouts in his fifth major league start. He has at least a league average SwStr% in four of the five with his current 28 K% still slightly trailing his AAA mark this year. He’s on the road in a great park against an offense that has struggled since losing their top LH bat (Reddick) this week. They strike out at a slightly below average rate (18.5% vs RHP), but also walk and homer at below average rates too. Fulmer has allowed more hard contact than we’d like (34.7 Hard%), but that shouldn’t account for a .400 BABIP and 20.8 HR/FB. This is a pitcher with strikeout upside, facing a below average offense for not much over $7K on either site tonight. The A’s don’t have a batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 102 vs RHP this season, though most reside in the 90’s. Three do have a 120+ wRC+ vs RHP since last season though if you’re banking on the hard contact to continue. Khris Davis (120 wRC+, .263 ISO) might be the most dangerous of the bunch, but bats 5th. Stephen Vogt (127 wRC+, .229 ISO) is probably a league average and inexpensive Catcher batting third. Danny Valencia (127 wRC+, .229 ISO) bats cleanup for under $3.5K.

Brewers look to take advantage of John Lamb at home

John Lamb got roasted in his first start on the road this season and faces the Brewers, who are projected as a top five offense today. Ryan Braun is the most expensive bat in the lineup ($5.1K on DK) and has really turned it on over the last week (.489 wOBA, 209 wRC+). Lucroy also returns to the lineup and is the cleanup batter after having the day off on Thursday. Lucroy has been really struggling over the past week (.080 wOBA, -67 WRC+) and is too risky for cash games tonight. Jonathan Villar (.447 wOBA, 181 wRC+ vs. LHP this season) is a nicely priced ($3.7K on DK, $3.8K on FD) leadoff hitter that has been especially hot over the last 2 weeks (.410 wOBA).

Giants head to Coors to face Tyler Chatwood, who has struggled more with RH bats

Tyler Chatwood is one of the few (maybe the lone?) arm in the Rockies rotation that makes you think twice about heavily targeting their opponent. While the Giants have one of the highest team totals of the night, the price tags on most of those bats have ballooned given the fact that this game is in Coors. Chatwood has struggled in Coors so far this year (.414 wOBA allowed, six HRs given up in just 23 IP), but he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (62.2 GB%). He doesn’t miss many bats (8.0 SwStr%, 15.5 K%) which certainly works in the Giants favor considering they don’t strike out a ton, so the upside in targeting the Giants bats is still evident. Chatwood has allowed a .353 wOBA to RH bats this season while holding lefties to a .249 mark, although his career wOBA split is nearly identical, so bats from both sides are in play here. Buster Posey owned a 1.107 OPS in Coors between 2013-2015, his best mark in a stadium in which he had at least 45 ABs over that time span, and he’s historically been good against RHP on the road (.365 wOBA, 36.1 hard% last season). He’s the top overall option at the catcher spot, while Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Denard Span are all very solid targets in the heart of the San Francisco order. Matt Duffy is the most reasonably priced of the bunch, but he’s struggled against RHP this season (.284 wOBA, .122 ISO) and isn’t your prototypical #3 hitter. He’s still squarely in play given the Coors bump and the fact that he’s hitting in a prime lineup spot. Brandon Belt is not in tonight’s lineup and may end up missing another day or two with a mild ankle sprain he suffered on Wednesday.