DFS Alerts
RHBs have a .402 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% Manaea (Tigers all RH tonight)
Sean Manaea (7.62 ERA, 4.68 SIERA, 14.7 K%, 8.4 SwStr%, 32.2 Hard%, 12.9 HR/FB) could probably benefit from some more time in the minors, but he’s nearly 25 years old and the A’s, who are probably not going anywhere, have a need, so he gets to face the Tigers tonight. They have just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP, but eight of nine bats in the lineup (all right-handed) have a 115 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and Manaea has been smashed for a .402 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% by batters from that side of the plate. Using just this year’s numbers though, has just J.D. Martinez (134 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Ian Kinsler (205 wRC+, .263 ISO) have been above average against LHP, but Miguel Cabrera (152 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP since last season) is sure to improve on his 2016 82 wRC+, .031 ISO. The issue would really come down to cost with several Tigers above $4K on FanDuel and close to $5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Sean Manaea
Diamondbacks have top run projection (5.07) outside Coors tonight
Christian Friedrich has walked nine while striking out just six of the 46 batters he’s faced this season, while RH bats have pounded him for a .399 wOBA since last season and that’s all he will see in the Arizona lineup tonight. This is an entirely stackable lineup, though at some high prices on DraftKings with both Goldschmidt (170 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since last season, but just 118 wRC+, .125 ISO this year) and Segura (126 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this year) reaching $5K. The most value probably lies in Brandon Drury (118 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since last season) batting 2nd for under $4K on DK and just $2.6K on FD and then the catcher, Welington Castillo (191 wRC+, .413 ISO vs LHP this season) for $4.1K on DK and just $2.9K on FD.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Drury, Paul Goldschmidt, Jean Segura, Christian Friedrich Julio Urias expected to be limited to around 90 pitches
This was expected considering Urias will end up working out of the bullpen to some degree during his time with the Dodgers. He’s not a recommended DFS option on a full slate (and pitch count), but he’s one of the most highly thought of young arms in the league, so it’s only a matter of time before he starts to make a DFS impact.
As reported by: Ken Gurnick
Yankees expected to struggle against Chris Archer in a pitcher-friendly park
Chris Archer is a solid pitcher at home this season (2.35 ERA, .268 wOBA) and faces the Yankees who are only putting out two right-handed bats. Archer has a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.3% this season. Even though the Yankees don’t strikeout much, there is a lot to like about Archer with his salary only $7.9K on DraftKings. Archer is pitching opposite of Masahiro Tanaka, so it’ll be tough to play him on FanDuel with a win not guaranteed and his salary at $9.4K. Jacoby Ellsbury has played extremely well in May (.428 wOBA, 177 wRC+) and deserves some tournament consideration against Archer. He is the most expensive bat in the lineup, so expect his ownership levels to be low on a full slate in a pitcher-friendly park.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Archer
Odor OUT tonight, Profar returns to Texas against Pirates and Niese
Jon Niese has pitched a bit better in recent starts and does have a 53.3 GB%, but his 16.8 K% offers little upside in a dangerous park tonight. The Texas Rangers recall former super prospect Jurickson Profar from the minors to bat leadoff tonight. He had been an average bat (114 wRC+, .142 ISO), but he’s a SS leading off at an affordable price in a lineup projected to score 4.9 runs tonight. Ian Desmond is costly, but has pounded LHP this season (177 wRC+, .235 ISO). Adrian Beltre has continued his career assault on lefties (144 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP since 2015), but an interesting OF bat and near punt on FD ($2.4K) might be Ryan Rua (122 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP since last season). He has performed well in limited opportunities, especially against LHP this year (199 wRC+ in 37 PA). Niese has shown no platoon split over the last year, allowing righties and lefties a wOBA just under .350 since 2015.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua, Jon Niese David Ortiz sits on Friday against Aaron Sanchez
Aaron Sanchez was originally off the radar because the Boston offense has been so devastating, bu David Ortiz is one of the top bats in the majors and losing him should boast an opposing pitcher against a lineup that is still formidable, but doesn’t look nearly as imposing now. The inclination is still to avoid as Boston still lines up five bats out of the top six with a wRC+ above 125 vs RHP this year and four with an ISO above .180. The top bat has been Jackie Bradley Jr. (164 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season), who moves back down to 6th after having his hitting streak snapped last night. Sanchez does have an elite ground ball rate (58.1%), so might not be a strong candidate to attack even if not using him.
Other tagged players: Aaron Sanchez Cardinals with the 2nd lowest run projection (3.09) against Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer is the top priced pitching option on the slate today and is expected to hold the Cardinals offense in check. Scherzer has been dominant against right-handers (.197 wOBA) and has a 1.66 FIP at home against them. Due to the tough matchup, all the bats for St. Louis are severely discounted. Stephen Piscotty ($3,200 on DK) is the most expensive player in the lineup and continues to be the cleanup hitter. Since Matt Adams is not in the lineup, Matt Holiday will be batting 3rd after having the day off on Thursday. With on the Matt Carpenter on the paternity list, left-handed Greg Garcia will be the leadoff hitter, after batting 8th on Thursday. Garcia is a minimum priced player on DraftKings, that was just recalled again from Triple-A and is averaging 7.25 fpts in 8 games this season. He’s only put up a bagel once in those games, so there is not a lot of downside to rostering him with his multiple position eligibility (2B/SS). Since Scherzer has allowed a .428 wOBA to LHB this season, there is a good chance that Garcia is able to make an impact. Brandon Moss is also another left-handed batter we can target against Scherzer. Moss is batting 5th and is only $2.6K on DraftKings with multiple position eligility (1B/OF). Moss does not have a great history against Scherzer, but could be viable for tournaments with his low ownership and .370 wOBA, 134 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty, Greg Garcia, Brandon Moss, Max Scherzer Bautista serves one game suspension against Kelly and Red Sox
Joe Kelly went into the 7th inning with a no-hitter and has struck out 18 of the 75 batters he’s faced this season, but he did the same thing last season with a near 30 K% through his first 100 batters last season before finishing with an 18.8 K%. This year, he’s added a 17.3 BB% to his normally hard contact (37.2 Hard%), which a number of Blue Jays have taken advantage of in the past. Jose Bautista serves his suspension tonight, but Josh Donaldson (139 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 93 mph aEV in 11 batted ball events against Kelly since last season and Edwin Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has 95.3 mph aEV in eight batted balls with both homering once. Toronto hasn’t been as potent this season (96 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ vs RHP), but still have one of the stronger run projections tonight (4.7). Michael Saunders (148 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP this season) has recently proven himself worthy of inclusion into the middle of this lineup, while Troy Tulowitzki (109 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP this season) bumps up to 5th at a price in the mid $3K range at SS.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Joe Kelly, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki Reds have been are the worst road offense (60 wRC+) and 2nd worst vs RHP (69 wRC+)
Zach Davies (5.75 ERA, 4.77 SIERA, 15.7 K%, 7.1 SwStr%, 41.0 Hard%, 15.2 HR/FB) is not a good pitcher and this is not a favorable park for pitchers. None of the numbers you just read would suggest that, but perhaps you don’t realize exactly how bad Cincinnati has been on the road (60 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB%, 5.7 HR/FB) and against RHP (69 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB%). They have been ice cold too (21 wRC+, 22.2 K-BB% last seven days). Literally any pitcher on a major league roster might be worth $6K agianst them and we might be willing to test that theory tonight. Don’t look to build around a pitcher of Davies caliber, but if you get stuck, you could probably do worse. There do remain a few Cincinnati bats worthy of attention though. In fact, the entire top half aside from Phillips have some merit in a good hitting environment against a pitcher who has allowed a .320+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% to batters from either side since last season. Joey Votto (99 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP this season) has really struggled, but still puts up a 154 wRC+ and .223 ISO vs RHP since last season and has a 40 Hard% over the last week despite a 9 wRC+. Zack Cozart (99 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an average bat at an average cost, but playing SS and leading off both increase his value. Jay Bruce (102 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an average bat with power, who also has a 40.0 Hard% despite a 6 wRC+ at a similar cost to Votto. Adam Duvall (123 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been an under the radar reverse platoon righty smasher, though his cost is beginning to rise, reaching $4K on DraftKings tonight. If you believe the Reds bats are overdue for positive regression, you have an interesting stacking opportunity. If you think they are what they are, then Davies can be plugged in at a low price.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, Zack Cozart Mike Wright has allowed a .410 career wOBA to LHBs
Stack up your Cleveland LHBs at the top of the order tonight. Starter Mike Wright has allowed a .410 career wOBA against them (178 PAs). He has just a 6.7 SwStr% with an ERA and estimators all well above four. Cleveland has one of the higher run projections outside of Coors tonight (4.7) with three standout lefties right at the top. Carlos Santana (121 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jason Kipnis (145 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) lead the way. Neither are cheap, but could cover the price if the Tribe hits it’s run projection. Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .131 ISO vs RHP) is a bit of a tougher call for nearly $5K on DraftKings, but at a tougher position. The rest of the Cleveland bats are much cheaper and with Wright’s .315 wOBA against RHBs, nobody needs to be avoided if players feel a stack is in order here, though Rajai Davis back in the 9th spot for nearly $4K might not make much sense.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Rajai Davis, Mike Wright deGrom gained some velocity (93.5 mph), struck out season high seven in his last start
Jacob deGrom has had a strange year. His 11.7 SwStr% and 3.07 ERA have remained strong with good command of five different pitches, but reduced velocity has increased his hard hit rate (35.7%) and reduced his strikeouts (17.7%). The good news is a velocity increase to 93.5 mph in his last start where he struck out a season high seven batters and his strong SwStr% projects for a higher rate overall, but that was against the Brewers and he still allowed four runs while even his most recent velocity readings lag behind last year. He faces another poor offense tonight though, and if his last start was the beginning of righting the ship, he’ll probably not be available for less than $10K again. Players might want to jump the gun and be proactive with a potentially large reward in GPPs, but nothing is guaranteed here. The Dodger bats have been pretty said recently and most of the season. The one who might be worth considering is Justin Turner (129 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since last season). He’s really struggled this year, but has turned it on lately (187 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% over the last week) and has three extra-base hits in 14 PAs against deGrom with a 92 mph aEV in 10 batted ball events. He costs less than $3K. Trayce Thompson, who had been receiving more playing time recently, has returned to the bench.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Justin Turner Dodgers promote top prospect Urias to face Mets
Julio Urias is a 19 year old top pitching prospect for the Dodgers (according to Fangraphs) and one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He’s blown through the minors in just a few seasons with a well above average K% and good control at every level where he’s spent significant time, while doing a good job of limiting HRs. The issue is that the Dodgers are rightfully being very cautious with his arm and top prospects aren’t debuting cheaply in DFS anymore. He’s faced more than 19 batters just twice this year with a high of 22. The Mets do hit for power vs LHP (14.4 HR/FB), but also strike out a ton (27.6 K%). There’s a chance he’s good for as long as he’s in there, but it’s difficult to predict how long that will be. After that, the Dodger bullpen will be able to mix and match for the 2nd half of the game, so we’ll want to keep our Mets exposure to just the one guy we know hits everybody at an affordable $4.3K on either site. That’s Yoenis Cespedes (137 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP since 2015). He’s improved to a 291 wRC+ and .500 ISO in a small sample against lefties this year, abandoning that reverse split label he acquired last year. He’s just been great vs everyone.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes Tanaka has a 10.5 HR/FB on the road, Rays have a 26.3 K% vs RHP
Masahiro Tanaka has been generating a few less ground balls and strikeouts over his last three starts, but still has a more than respectable 55.4 GB% and 21.3 K% (12.5 SwStr%) on the season. On the road, he has to worry less about the long ball (10.5 HR/FB on the road since last season), which should bump his value. The Rays 13.7 HR/FB at home and 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP, but also strike out at a 26.3% pace vs righties. Tanaka potentially combines the fewest flaws with the best spot among the five top priced pitchers and should be a top consideration in all formats at around $10K. It looks like Steve Pearce (101 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has claimed the every day cleanup spot, but is not nearly as potent against RHP. Corey Dickerson (127 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP this season) drops down to 7th in tonight’s lineup limiting our interest in this lineup to perhaps just a mild one in Brad Miller (120 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as a SS batting 2nd at around a $3K cost, though Tanaka has held batters from both sides to below a .300 wOBA since 2015.
Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller Conley faces worst offense at home (62 wRC+) and vs LHP (58 wRC+), but has struggled with control
Adam Conley faces the worst offense both at home (65 wRC+) and vs LHP (58 wRC+) today, but has been incredibly inconsistent. He’s allowed one run or less in four of his starts with a 27:7 K:BB ratio, but has allowed at least three runs five times, striking out more than he’s walked just twice in those starts. Three of them have been against Washington though, including seven walks last time out, so maybe it’s just one team that gives him great difficulty. None of this takes him out of play against an incredibly weak lineup that there is no interest in, but the Braves don’t have the lowest run projection on the board and barely sit inside the bottom five (3.5). His inconsistency is something to consider when paying $7.5K to $8K tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Duffy limited to 80 pitches against White Sox, but it might be enough
Danny Duffy has gone three and 4.1 innings in each of his first two starts, but they’ve been effective innings (5 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 7 K – 29 BF). He’s on an 80 pitch limit tonight, but in a neutral matchup at home that might be enough for $4.8K on DraftKings if Kevin gives us a favorable report tonight (there was some concern for this game in the morning forecast). Adam Eaton sits out against the lefty tonight, but another issue we run into with Chicago bats is that the Royals are a decently sized favorite here (-154) and will likely be mixing and matching with the top of their bullpen by the 6th inning. Todd Frazier (135 wRC+, .335 ISO vs LHP since 2015) would be the most potent bat. Brett Lawrie (132 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might provide some 2B value at a low cost.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie