DFS Alerts

Verlander has struck out 27 of his last 87 batters

Justin Verlander has turned back the clock with at least seven innings and eight strikeouts in each of his last three starts and a strong matchup against an offense with a 77 wRC+ vs RHP this season. He projects well for $8.5K on FanDuel, but costs a bit more ($11K) on DraftKings, where he’ll need to break the 20 point barrier just to meet value. That looks like a potential prognosis from recent starts, but we can’t just forget about the last three years completely. While there’s not a lot of interest in Philadelphia bats, three names still need to be mentioned. Leadoff man Odubel Herrera (166 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is a still under-valued bat for around $3.5K and with the Phillies shuffling their lineup around today, both the third (Maikel Franco – 116 wRC+, .194 ISO career vs RHP) and fourth (Tommy Joseph – 226 wRC+, .40 Hard% last seven days) cost less than $3K.

Tigers hottest bats in the majors (158 wRC+ last seven days), Upton remains out

Jeremy Hellickson continues to miss bats at an impressive rate (24.2 K%, 12.0 SwStr%), but also still allows a lot of hard contact (32.9%) in the air (17.6 HR/FB) and faces the hottest lineup in the majors (158 wRC+ last seven days) in Detroit. He has allowed RHBs a .325 wOBA (.348 LHBs) since last season and particularly hot is Miguel Cabrera (170 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since last season and even better this year) with a 454 wRC+ and 68.2 Hard% over the last week. He costs $4.5K tonight and might be the top overall bat to build lineups around tonight. J.D. Martinez (132 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 192 wRC+, 60.0 Hard% over the last week and should be a coveted OF bat for slightly less. Nick Castellanos (187 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this year) has really turned it on vs RHP for a very reasonable cost below $4K, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia (148 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP this year) is a cheap play at a tough Catcher position for $3K or less. The Tigers have the 2nd highest run projection tonight (5.04).

Adams a hot, low cost 1B bat (152 wRC+ vs RHP 2016, 236 wRC+ last seven days)

Jason Hammel is a good pitcher (22.5 K%, 10.1 SwStr%) though his 2.31 ERA sits about a run to a run and a half below his estimators and he tends to be removed after no more than six innings nearly every time. He’s averaged just 5.2 innings over the last two years and faces a tough team against RHP (127 wRC+) at a high price. He’s not a pitcher players should be looking to attack, but he has allowed LHBs an average .312 wOBA and there is one salary relief bat worth looking at in the middle of this order. Matt Adams has a 152 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHPs this year at a cost of $3K or below. Over the last week, he has a 236 wRC+. Aledmys Diaz (174 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) isn’t as cheap, but can still be considered at a weak SS position out of the two spot.

Red Sox have top run projection (5.53), now punish LHP too (125 wRC+)

Jorge de la Rosa comes off the DL to make his first start in a month and it might as well be Colorado for Boston’s 135 wRC+ at home. They now add a 125 wRC+ vs LHP and tonight’s top run projection (5.53). David Ortiz might be the least playable non-Catcher in this lineup with just an 88 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. The rest of the top eight are above average and strong plays even at higher costs against a pitcher who has allowed a .352 wOBA to RHBs since last season. The other LHB, Jackie Bradley Jr., has a 158 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP since last sesaon. With Betts (115 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2015, 270 wRC+ over the last week) and Bogaerts (154 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) being top overall plays at their positions and Chris Young (167 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) being one of the top values, this lineup is stackable all the way through in any combination, but is the expected chalk tonight.

Harvey down to $7.5K on both major sites, faces Nationals 86 wRC+ vs RHP

Matt Harvey’s defense betrayed him in his last start against these same Nationals, though he did not pitch well. The Mets keep raving about how good he’s looked in bullpens, but he just can’t consistently carry that into games with him. He is a high risk GPP only proposition, but now only $7.5K on either site with some upside against an offense with an 86 wRC+ and just two legitimate bats against RHP and just a 5.0 HR/FB over the last week. Harvey had just a 4.9 SwStr% in his last start, but was in double digits in four of his previous five and has just a 62.2 LOB% this season with an 87.7 mph aEV that’s lowest on today’s board despite a 29% line drive rate. Bryce Harper (196 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Daniel Murphy (138 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are your only bats in play in a matchup that most players are likely to avoid altogether with the Nationals projected for a flat four runs. Harvey has held RHBs to a .254 wOBA since last season, though lefties have now hit him 70 points higher (.354).

Arizona stacks eight RHBs against erratic Liriano

Francisco Liriano has a 12.0 BB% and inconsistent strikeout totals from start to start. His home park greatly suppresses RH power, yet he has an 18.2 HR/FB at home since last season. A ground ball rate above 50% makes that sound a little worse than it actually is, but he’s difficult to trust at a high cost, which he is on FanDuel ($9.5K) against an offense with a 119 wRC+, 9.1 BB%, 37.5 Hard%, and 19.3 HR/FB vs LHP, though we have to consider their much friendlier home park in those numbers and regress them somewhat. A lower than usual $8.5K cost on DraftKings, may give him some room to surpass expectations there if he hits his upside, though it’s still a risk. Liriano has allowed a .301 wOBA to RHBs since last season and there are a few bats we can consider here at lower than normal prices with low expected ownership. Goldschmidt (171 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hasn’t been up to his normal standards, but now costs less than $4.5K and does have a 195 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% over the last week. Castillo and Tomas both have a wRC+ above 200 with ISOs above .300 vs LHP this season, costing just above $3K on either site. Both have a wRC+ below 60 over the last week though. Phil Gosselin (122 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is your punt 2B option batting 2nd for less than $2.5K.

Brewers have struck out 27.1% of the time vs RHP

Julio Teheran has struck out just 13 of his last 78 batters, but generally pitches well at home in a big park (14.0 K-BB%, 9.1 HR/FB since last season) and faces an offense with a 27.1 K% vs RHP and 31.1 K% over the last week. He has some upside on FanDuel for $8K, but might be more difficult to justify for $9.4K on DraftKings. Teheran has allowed a massive .379 wOBA to LHBs, but held righties to a .250 wOBA since last season, leaving us without much interest in Milwaukee bats in a spot that might suppress their RH power.

Pittsburgh has 3rd highest run projection tonight (4.9) against one of 2016's worst pitchers

The Pirates take on one of 2016’s worst pitchers in Shelby Miller (6.64 ERA, 5.65 SIERA, 14.2 K%), who has allowed a wOBA 60 points higher vs LHBs since last season (.337 vs .277), but the top five batters in the Pittsburgh lineup all have a wRC+ above 115 vs RHP both this season and since last year. John Jaso is the hottest bat in the lineup (201 wRC+ last seven days) and perhaps the top value for below $4K on either site. Cleanup hitter Jung-Ho Kang is the only other bat in the group who’s cost comes close. He has a 58.3 Hard% over the last week. With costs sitting at $4K on FanDuel or closer to $5K on DraftKings, the other three bats (McCutchen, Polanco, Marte) might provide moderate value in a park that greatly hampers RH power (none of the five batters have an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season). Pittsburgh does have the 3rd highest run projection tonight (4.9).

Wacha has a career 7.2 HR/FB at home, but has been roughed up last few starts

Michael Wacha has been knocked out of each of his last two starts after four innings, bringing his ERA in line with estimators around four with a strikeout rate that’s dropped below average over the last month. The Cubs are a patient offense with the highest walk rate in the league (11.7% vs RHP) and are a difficult assignment here. Wacha’s saving grace might be a 7.2 career HR/FB at home in a park that is rough on power hitters. The cost is below average on DraftKings, but remember that you’re paying for his home park HR suppression more than anything. The Cubs are an expensive bunch with four of the top five bats in the order above average vs RHP (119 wRC+ or better since last season, 137 wRC+ or better over the last week), but at least $4.4K on DK, $3.8K on FD. Jason Heyward is a bit cheaper in the two spot, but has just a 70 wRC+ vs RHP this year and 36 wRC+ over the last week. Kris Bryant has two HRs in 14 PAs career against Wacha with a 98 mph aEV over eight batted balls since 2015.

Rays and Marlins square off in only afternoon game of the day

Tampa Bay takes a trip down south to Miami today in what is the only afternoon game of the day with the Rays and Jake Odorizzi slight favorites over the Marlins and Tom Koehler. Odorizzi flashes high upside at times but is wildly inconsistent – he’s best avoided in most formats but could be a sneaky GPP play pitching in a pitcher friendly park against a somewhat lackluster offense. He’s a reverse splits pitcher that is more effective against left-handed bats (.290 career wOBA including .255 this season) and struggles against right-handed hitters (to the tune of a .325 career wOBA including .357 this season). Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna, and the struggling Giancarlo Stanton are secondary options if you are playing the all day slate and you can also include hot-hitting (10 hits in his last three games) Ichiro Suzuki as a viable play. Tom Koehler struggles against both sides (>.318 career wOBA allowed) and left-handed bats have roughed him up the last two seasons (.367 wOBA allowed this season, .332 wOBA allowed in 2015). Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, and Corey Dickerson are the lone southpaws in the Rays lineup today and are all viable options along with the rest of the top five in the batting order (Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce, and Steve Souza).

NYM @ WAS will not be postponed and is expected to start at 8:10pm ET. We will send out another update if anything changes.

Value bats available in Los Angeles against Brandon Finnegan

Finnegan has a 23.1 HR/FB% and a 24 Hard-Soft% vs. RHB this season. The Dodgers have six right-handed bats in their lineup tonight against Finnegan. Kike Hernandez will be leading off and is a strong value play with his salary only $2.1K on FanDuel. Hernandez has a .352 wOBA and 123 wRC+ over the last week. Trayce Thompson is batting 5th and is a strong play as well because he has a .454 wOBA and a 191 wRC+ over the last week. Thompson has really been playing well against left-handed pitching, proven by his.400 wOBA and a 155 wRC+ at home this season to LHP.

The start of the NY Mets Washington game will be delayed by rain as Kevin predicted might be the case. Be sure to follow him on twitter (KevinRothRX) for further updates.

Rich Hill makes the Mariners' bats unappealing

Hill has a strikeout rate of 28.4%, 3.45 SIERA, and a 2.54 ERA in 2016, making all the bats in Seattle risky. Making Rich Hill a viable play on sites that require two pitchers. Hill has a 67.6 GB% against LHB this season, which neutralizes the 4 left-handed bats that the Mariners are throwing out in a park that is more pitcher-friendly. Nelson Cruz is a low-end option because he is too expensive with Clayton Kershaw and other strong pitching options available. Dae-Ho Lee is only $2.6K on DraftKings and has some upside with his .243 ISO vs. LHP this season and .355 wOBA in his L14.

The start of the NY Mets Washington game will be delayed by rain as Kevin predicted might be the case. Be sure to follow him on twitter (KevinRothRX) for further updates.