DFS Alerts

Seattle has a 12.7 HR/FB in Safeco, but are expensive against Graveman (25.0 HR/FB)

Kendall Graveman has allowed 10 HRs this season (25.0 HR/FB) and also has just a 14.8 K% over the last month. He still has a ground ball rate above 50%, but more contact means more chances for the ball to fly out of the yard and Seattle has hit HRs at Safeco at a slightly above average rate (12.7 HR/FB). While Graveman has allowed a .330+ wOBA to batters from either side since last season, the key Seattle bats all cost above $4K in a pitcher’s park. Among the top six, only Martin has a wRC+ below 118 vs RHP since last season, but counters with 337 wRC+ over the last week since being moved to the leadoff spot. These bats are playable, especially with Cano’s 180 wRC+ and .327 ISO vs RHP this year, but don’t represent much in the way of bargains tonight.

Kevin Roth writes that there is some risk involving the KC @ MIN game, rating it as a YELLOW/ORANGE. Check out his full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Rangers currently projected with the 3rd highest run total today (4.81)

The Rangers are moving Mitch Moreland down to 7th in the order and moving Nomar Mazara up to 5th. Jhoulys Chacin (5.21 ERA) has been struggling this season and has allowed an average of 4.66 runs in his last three starts. Chacin has a 5.60 FIP vs. LHB this season and the Rangers have five left-handed bats in the lineup. Rougned Odor will continue to leadoff as his suspension appeal is still pending. Odor has been struggling as of late (.181 wOBA L14) and is still over $4k on DraftKings. Odor is still a strong play in tournaments and his recent struggles could lead to lower ownership levels. Nomar Mazara (.378 wOBA, 137 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) is an especially strong play on FanDuel with his salary only $3,100. Mazara also has a .215 ISO vs. RHP and .341 wOBA L14.

Bolsinger had league average ERA, estimators, and K% (21.0) last season, faces 2nd worst offense vs RHP (72 wRC+)

Mike Bolsinger struggled in his 2016 debut this season against an Angels offense that doesn’t strike out, but his 8.7 SwStr% was on par with his career norm and he’s been able to turn that into a league average strikeout rate with a league average ERA and estimators last year. He’s in a good spot against the 2nd worst offense vs RHP now (72 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB%) at a low cost. He’s an interesting option with some upside beyond his price tag even on one pitcher sites if you’re looking to pay up for offense. The Reds have the 6th lowest run projection tonight (3.19). Lefties have hit him a bit (.360 wOBA career) and Jay Bruce (.275 ISO vs RHP this season) still supplies power, but Joey Votto (99 wRC+ vs RHP this season, 37 wRC+ last seven days) continues to struggle this season. Aside from Bruce, Zack Cozart (119 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only other bat that hasn’t been awful over the last week (161 wRC+, 40.9 Hard%) and is a reasonable $3.4K on DraftKings at a difficult position tonight. Billy Hamilton loses value dropping back down to 8th.

Tuesday's Notable Inactives: Kinsler, McCann, D. Wright, J. Lamb, J. Upton, Kipnis, Dozier, B. Park, Rollins, Moss

A bunch of noteworthy names are out of the lineup tonight, including Ian Kinsler who was scratched late due to an illness. Brian McCann will give way with R.A. Dickey on the mound (the BvP numbers don’t work in his favor), while other regulars like Wright, Lamb, Upton, Dozier and Park will simply get a night of rest. For a full breakdown of all confirmed lineups, follow the link below.

Kipnis OUT against Sale, who has back to back complete games

If Chris Sale keeps pitching complete games, there’s no problem with his new pitch to contact approach. The fact is that he’s still striking out 25.2% of the batter’s he’s faced, but with just a 9.2 SwStr% and even smaller 7.8 SwStr% over the last month. The .197 BABIP seems like it might be pretty difficult to sustain as well. He’s still one of tonight’s top pitchers in a decent spot against Cleveland (85 wRC+, 6.0 HR/FB vs LHP), but costs $12.3K on FanDuel and $13.8K on DraftKings, where it’s become a bit difficult to justify the cost. If we can’t count on an elite strikeout rate, he’s going to need to finish what he starts for that cost. For players looking to fade the low BABIP and even be incredibly contrarian, Rajai Davis (150 wRC+ last seven days) has a .205 ISO vs LHP this season and Francisco Linder has a 178 wRC+ vs southpaws in 2016. Both are below $3K on DraftKings. It still doesn’t seem like the best idea to pick on Sale though.

Fister has only allowed more than three runs once, O's struggled against soft-tossing RHPs this weekend

At his best, Doug Fister is a ground ball generator with few strikeouts and he hasn’t done a poor job of that, allowing three or fewer runs in all but one start. With three or fewer strikeouts in all but three starts and a high of six, the upside is not there for daily fantasy use. He has allowed six HRs this year and faces one of the highest power teams in baseball (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), though they struggled against a couple of soft-tossing Angels over this past weekend. Matt Wieters is the only hot bat in the lineup (376 wRC+ over the last week) and is a strong option at a weak position for under $3.5K tonight. He has a 138 wRC+ vs RHP this year and Fister has allowed a .341 wOBA to LHBs since last season. Chris Davis (157 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hasn’t seen results over the last week (58 wRC+), but has still hit the ball hard (53.9%) when making contact and has two HRs in 13 PAs against Fister. Manny Machado (148 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since last season) might have a tougher time against the ground baller (Fister 54.7 GB% vs RHBs this season), but his SS eligibility at a reasonable cost keeps him in the conversation.

Park & Dozier OUT for Twins against struggling Volquez, Grossman 308 wRC+ last seven days

Edinson Volquez has allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts, striking out just two in one of the other two. He’s a pitcher DFS players can sometimes pick up at home and while Minnesota is another favorable park for his skill set, there doesn’t seem to be much of one over the last month (15.2 K%, 7.0 SwStr%). The most interesting bat in the Minnesota might be a punt OFer. Robbie Grossman is $2.3K or less and has a 308 wRC+ over the last week. He bats 5th in Park’s absence tonight. Miguel Sano still supplies power and has a 161 wRC+ career at home, but has a lesser 98 wRC+ and .182 ISO vs RHP in 2016.

Ian Kinsler scratched due to flu-like symptoms; Cameron Maybin now the leadoff hitter

Maybin will now be the leadoff hitter for the Tigers with Ian Kinsler out of the lineup. Maybin was originally batting 6th and is now an elite option at the top of the lineup. Maybin is only $3,200 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making it easy to fit him into a Tigers’ stack. Maybin has a .578 wOBA since being activated and faces Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .325 wOBA to RHB.

Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) top OF bat vs Perez (.331 wOBA vs RHBs)

Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is one of the top overall bats tonight against Martin Perez (.331 wOBA vs RHBs). He has a ground ball rate above 50% and just a .247 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season, though that affects just two batters in this lineup tonight. The Angels have just a 16.1 K% vs LHP, which is actually higher than Perez’s overall mark this year (13.8%). It’s just the ability to elevate his pitches that’s in question. Albert Pujols has been just average vs LHP, but with power (.241 ISO since 2015) and has been hot (174 wRC+ last seven days). Leadoff man Yunel Escobar (168 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) is a surprisingly strong infield bat against lefties this year for less than $4K and might be the top value per dollar in the lineup.

White Sox drop slumping Abreu to 5th against Tomlin (.337 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015)

Josh Tomlin struck out a season high seven Reds in his last start, but his overall K rate is well below average this year with just a 15.6 K% and 6.2 SwStr% over the last month. He’s been a strong reverse split pitcher since last season (.337 wOBA, 38.8 Hard% vs RHBs, .224 vs LHBs), which makes it strange that the White Sox chose today to drop the slumping Abreu (131 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has always shown reverse tendencies himself, though much less this season (89 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP). Todd Frazier (135 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP this year) has picked up the slack and is potentially a very undervalued play for $4K tonight on either site. Austin Jackson (99 wRC+ vs RHP this season) gets a major bump in value for less than $3K in the 2nd spot.

Nathan Eovaldi pitching well at home against RHB (.279 wOBA in 2016, .244 wOBA in 2015)

The Blue Jays have three expensive right-handed bats at the top of their order that don’t have a ton of upside. Jose Bautista continues to strive as the leadoff hitter and is now $5K on DraftKings. Bautista (.432 wOBA L14 ) has a .298 ISO vs. RHP this season but is still not a lock because of his elevated price tag. His price tag does not offer much flexibility for cash games but he is still a viable GPP play. Bautista will need to score 20 fpts to return value tonight. Josh Donaldson (.281 wOBA L14) is a boom-or-bust option and is now slightly discounted at $4,400 after hitting $5,500 on DK this past weekend. Michael Saunders (.363 wOBA and .169 IsO vs RHP) is a nice LHB to use against Eovaldi. Saunders has been hot recently, proven by his .481 wOBA L14. Nathan Eovaldi has been pitching well against RHB at home over the past two seasons, but his .428 wOBA in 2016 and .331 wOBA in 2015 vs. LHB, shows that Saunders could be an elite option with his salary back under $4K.

Price (2.90 SIERA, 29.4 K%) costs just $8.9K at home vs Rockies (45 wRC+ last seven days)

At just $8.9K at home against the Rockies on DraftKings, players might think they thought this game was in Colorado with such a price decrease against a team that has struggled on the road (90 wRC+), vs LHP (91 wRC+, 25.1 K%) and over the last week (45 wRC+). David Price has been a bit inconsistent in his strikeout totals, but has incredible upside in this spot and has allowed just three ERs with a 19.4 Hard% over his last two starts, less than half his 40+ Hard% for the season prior to those two starts. He’s a great value on DK, though falls behind Strasburg among other top pitchers for a cost $1.8K higher on FanDuel. There are two bats that might still warrant consideration for Colorado. The first is at a difficult position with Trevor Story having a 169 wRC+, .354 ISO vs LHP, including a 131 wRC+ on the road, though he has gone cold (66 wRC+) with the rest of the team the last week. Super lefty smasher Ryan Raburn (171 wRC+, .285 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is always in play vs LHP for less than $3K. If you’re thinking Arenado, he has just a 104 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, hitting much better against RHP. The Rockies have the 2nd lowest run projection (2.97) on the board tonight.

Strasburgh has struck out at least seven in each of his last eight starts

Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least seven in eight straight starts and dominated this Mets lineup in his last one. With David Wright out and Lucas Duda on the DL, this lineup has an extremely weak lower half and has struck out 29.5% of the time over the last week, making Strasburg tonight’s overall top pitcher and the top choice on FanDuel for $10.8K. He has a bit more competition on DraftKings for $13.4K, but is still firmly among the top of the pack. The Mets do have a 15.6 HR/FB against RHP with Strasburg being league average throughout his career in that department, so we may be looking at a long ball or two tonight with the likeliest bats being either Cespedes (148 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or Conforto (160 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP career), who are both below $4K on DraftKings. Exactly three runs for the Mets tonight is the 3rd lowest projection though.

McCann OUT vs knuckleballer at Yankee Stadium

Many numbers go out the window with a knuckleballer on the mound, but R.A. Dickey has allowed eight HRs this season and three in his last start. He has little platoon split, but it’s no secret that Yankee Stadium is not very friendly to RHPs. It’s unfortunate that McCann’s benching takes away one of our better power options behind the plate tonight, but there are several hot bats atop the Yankees lineup to look at tonight. Carlos Beltran (128 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since last season) has a 239 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week. Jacoby Ellsbury has bounced back with a 124 wRC+ vs RHP this year and has a 197 wRC+ over the last week, while fellow table setter Brett Gardner (153 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) remains a solid play at home as well.