DFS Alerts

Cueto has two complete games against the Padres (68 wRC+ vs RHP) in the last 30 days

Sometimes it’s concerning when an offense is seeing the same pitcher for the 3rd time in a month, but Johnny Cueto has dominated the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (68 wRC+) in both outings (18 IP – 1 ER – 3 BB – 19 K) and the Padres are coming off consecutive extra inning affairs, playing 17 yesterday against the Dodgers. Cueto has a hefty cost ($11.8K on FD, $12.6K on DK), but is the clear #2 pitcher behind Kershaw tonight and should be worth the price. There’s no interest in a weary San Diego offense projected to score fewer than three runs tonight.

Kevin has updated his forecast for the two games at risk tonight (NYM@WAS & KCR@MIN), slightly reducing the severity of the expected impact. Check out the latest on our Weather Page linked below.

Pence OUT, Tomlinson bats 2nd, Pagan 5th against Pomeranz

Drew Pomeranz has struck out 11 of 47 Giants, but lasted just 10.1 innings over two recent starts against the Giants, including his worst of the year less than a month ago. It’s always a little concerning when a good offense sees a pitcher this many times in a short span, especially one that strikes out so infrequently (17.6% vs LHP), but Pomeranz has been very good this year (1.96 ERA, 3.49 SIERA, 30.3 K%, 12.5 SwStr%) and a bit of a weakened lineup with out Hunter Pence (and Joe Panik vs the lefty) keeps him in play for $9K or less tonight. Additionally, the Giants bats have been struggling (72 wRC+ last seven days), but Buster Posey has 146 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and comes at a reduced cost tonight ($3.5K). He has just a 95 wRC+, but 52.6 Hard% over the last week. The potential value play here might be Kelby Tomlilnson (159 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) batting 2nd for less than $3K. Angel Pagan (110 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) moves up to 5th tonight.

Rangers projected as one of the top offenses against Nick Tropeano

The Rangers now have the 3rd highest run total projections with 4.70, putting their left-handed bats in play. Rougned Odor has a .350 wOBA and 117 wRC+ at home this season vs. RHP. Odor also has a .216 ISO vs. RHP and is a strong option with 2B relatively thin today. Prince Fielder is also a strong option that has a .361 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Nick Tropeano has allowed a .380 wOBA and a majority of his walks to LHB this season. Mitch Moreland (.315 wOBA, 93 wRC+ vs. RHP) and Ian Desmond (.405 wOBA L14) also deserve consideration because the Rangers were originally projected as the top offense of the day.

Walker has a 21.8 K-BB%, but 14.7 HR/FB at home since 2015

Taijuan Walker struggled in his last start in Baltimore, but what hard throwing RHP hasn’t this year. He’s pitched much better at home with a 21.8 K-BB% (despite a 14.7 HR/FB) since last season and is firmly in play for less than $9K on either site. There’s a major drop off in quality and cost once you get past him on DraftKings ($8.1K) and the loss of a top LH bat for Oakland (Reddick) puts him in a better spot here even if the A’s don’t strike out a lot (18.6% vs RHP). There’s not a lot of interest in the Oakland bats here, but we might have to consider Stephen Vogt (119 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for less than $3K at a weak position where not using Walker and also Khris Davis (120 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) and Danny Valencia (131 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) for their power potential against a pitcher who has been prone to the long ball.

Justin Upton scratched, Steven Moya takes his place

Justin Upton has been scratched with Steven Moya being inserted into his lineup spot according to Detroit beat writer Jason Beck. The rest of the lineup remains the same.

Justin Upton scratched, Steven Moya takes his place

Justin Upton has been scratched with Steven Moya being inserted into his lineup spot according to Detroit beat writer Jason Beck. The rest of the lineup remains the same.

Kevin’s late forecast warns players of two games with potentially severe weather in Washington (vs NYM) and Minnesota (vs KCR). You’ll want to read his full report on our Weather Page linked below to assess the risk in those games.

Clayton Kershaw has a 40 K% over the last month.

Clayton Kershaw has struck out at least 10 in each of his last six starts and has a K% just above 40 over the last month in which his 1.80 ERA is at least a half run higher than each of his estimators, including a 0.64 FIP. He may eventually have a sub-standard game, but is close as you can come to guaranteeing 25-33% of a cash for the portion of the salary cap spent on him and is once again the unquestioned top pitcher tonight. Cincinnati is projected to score just 2.01 runs.

Royals down Moustakas and Gordon tonight.

Ricky Nolasco never lives up to his ERA estimators and is once again running about a run behind. He has a 32.5 Hard% and has allowed fewer than four runs in just one of his last seven starts. The Royals are down Moustakas and Gordon tonight and whille Eric Hosmer (150 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat, he’s not a cheap one tonight. The interesting affordable OF bat here is Paulo Orlando (96 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP) for less than $3K in the 7th spot. He has a 406 wRC+ over the last week. With the scratch of Moustakas just after the lineup was released, Whit Merrifield becomes incredibly interesting in the two hole at the minimum cost on DraftKings.

Mike Trout batting 2nd; Kole Calhoun OUT vs Holland

The Angels will give left-handed Kole Calhoun his first day off this season, moving Mike Trout to 2nd in the order and Albert Pujols will bat 3rd. Yunel Escobar will remain as the leadoff hitter against Derek Holland. With the Angels projected as one of the top offenses today (4.80 run projection, 2nd overall), all three right-handed batters are in play. Mike Trout (.321 wOBA, 108 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2016) is an elite option that is slightly discounted on FanDuel and is at a season-high $5,400 on DraftKings. Trout has .469 wOBA and 213 wRC+ over the last week but did suffer a minor ankle injury on Saturday, that should not limit him today. Pujols (.434 wOBA, 188 wRC+ over the last week) and Yunel Escobar (.356 wOBA, 133 wRC+ over the last week) have also been playing well and can attack Holland in a hitter-friendly park. Holland has allowed a .327 wOBA and has a 21.9 Hard-Soft% to RHB at home this season.

Minnesota has just an 8.4 HR/FB at home and 23.4 K% vs RHP

Ian Kennedy has pitched well in non power friendly parks and Minnesota plays slightly negative for RH power and more strongly against lefties. Minnesota has just an 8.0 HR/FB at home with a 23.4 K% against RHP. These are circumstances under which Kennedy should be a viable choice tonight and he is for $8.4K on FanDuel, however costs $2K more on DraftKings where he’ll need to surpass 20 points just to meet value. Then there is also the question of weather. This is the one game Kevin Roth labelled as Orange this morning, so you’ll want to pay attention to his update later. There are a couple of power bats for the Twins worth looking into. Miguel Sano (133 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) is a HR threat against a prone pitcher for less than $4K as is Byung-Ho Park (121 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP). Robbie Grossman is less than $3K batting 6th and has a 283 wRC+ over the last week and may serve as a punt OFer.

Phillies projected for over four runs tonight without a player above $4K on either site

The Phillies don’t often have a run projection above four, but do tonight (4.29) against Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed just two ERs in 5.1 IP in each of his last two starts, but has a 20.8 Hard-Soft% on the season and has allowed multiple HRs in two of his last three starts. There aren’t many strong bats in this lineup, but as player are looking for salary relief tonight, not a single player is above $4K on either site facing a pitcher with a .382 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season. Odubel Herrera is the most expensive bat, but also the top one (125 wRC+ vs RHP). Ryan Howard (103 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top power threat and though he’s retained the power, has just a 64 wRC+ vs RHP this season and -71 wRC+ over the last week. Maikel Franco has been merely average at an average cost. Cameron Rupp is a very inexpensive Catcher batting 6th, who hasn’t hit RHP well (70 wRC+ since last season), but has a 304 wRC+ with a 50.0 Hard% over the last week, while Tommy Joseph costs the minimum on FanDuel batting one spot ahead, though is not Catcher eligible there.

Adams and Hazelbaker OUT tonight vs Lackey

John Lackey has pitched very well for the Cubs this season (3.31 ERA with matching estimators, 25.1 K%), but costs above $9K traveling to face the 2nd best offense (128 wRC+) vs RHP. This is a very difficult spot for him at a high cost. He has held RHBs to a .267 wOBA since last season, while over 50 points higher (.321) vs LHBs, making it curious that the Cardinals would sit Adams and Hazelbaker tonight, Matt Carpenter (153 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) becomes is a strong 3B play tonight as usual. Aledmys Diaz (184 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP) remains a solid value batting 2nd for less than $3.5K at an extremely weak SS position tonight. Brandon Moss has improved to a 139 wRC+, .346 wRC+ vs RHP this season and has a 50.0 Hard% over the last week. He’s an affordable 1B eligible bat for $3K on a night where salary relief will be important. Stephen Piscotty (125 wRC+ vs RHP) is the hottest bat in the lineup (240 wRC+ last seven days), batting cleanup for less than $4K. The cost of some of these formidble Cardinal bats may push them into stronger consideration against a strong RHP.

Cubs top four all have a 140+ wRC+ over the last week, but have a high cost

Adam Wainwright has not walked more than one since his 2nd start and tied a season high with five strikeouts, allowing no runs in 6.2 innings, the first time he’s allowed fewer than three this season, but is still a long way off from previous standards and faces a very difficult lineup tonight (111 wRC+ vs RHP). The Cubs lose a little bit vs RHP without Heyward in the lineup, but are still well disciplined. Though the bottom half all have a 103 wRC+ or less vs RHP since last season, the top four are all at 119 or above with Bryant now in the 2nd spot and Rizzo above 140. Additionally, all four have a wRC+ above 140 over the last week with Rizzo and Zobrist adding a 55+ Hard%. The issue is one of cost in a park that is difficult on power. All four bats are above $4.5K on DraftKings and $3.9K or better on FanDuel, making them difficult to fit unless you’re looking at some cheap and frightening pitching tonight. With Wainwright looking better and locating better in his last start according to Fangraphs, perhaps this is an interesting fade spot with the Cubs projected for fewer than four runs (3.83).