DFS Alerts

Mets have a league high 27.0 K% vs LHP

Gio Gonzalez has estimators well above his 1.86 ERA, but pitched well in his last two starts, including matching his season high for velocity against these Mets the last time out. He’s not the top choice, but should be considered for under $10K against a lineup with the highest strikeout rate in baseball vs LHP (27.0%). Conforto sits as usual against the lefty because Curtis Granderson and his 63 wRC+ vs LHP since last season has to play. The one bat to look at in this Mets lineup tonight is Yoenis Cespedes, who got a bit of a reputation as a reverse split hitter last season, but has mashed lefties this season so far (267 wRC+, .440 ISO) and has a .229 ISO over the last week. Gonzalez has shown a great ability to limit HRs, allowing just 47 since being traded to Washington in 2012, but Cespedes got him for one of those in his last start. David Wright has a 146 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, but just 100 this year, though he still may offer some value on FanDuel below $3K.

Tigers have highest wRC+ in baseball (163) over the last seven days

Vincent Velasquez has struck out more than six just once in his last six starts and that occurred in his last start, in which he lasted just five innings. He’s been a bit sheltered against the offenses of the NL East in most of his starts with an additional one against the Padres for which daily fantasy players are still paying. He’s over-priced on DraftKings ($11.8K) against a difficult Detroit lineup (114 wRC+ vs RHP, 163 wRC+ over the last week) and has been just average (.302 wOBA) vs RHBs in his career. While many players might avoid this offense, there are some strong values in a lineup projected to score more than four runs, starting with Miguel Cabrera (164 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since last season), who’s price on DK ($3.9K) is lower than FD ($4.2K). He has a .311 wRC+ with a 65.2 Hard% over the last week. J.D. Martinez (131 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) bats 2nd with a 255 wRC+, 65.0 Hard% over the last week for $3.9K on either site. In fact, only VMartinez and Upton have a wRC+ below 140 over the last week.

J.T. Realmuto bats 3rd as Marlins stack RH behind Suzuki against Matt Moore

Matt Moore is still missing a decent number of bats on a start to start basis, but has a 35.0 Hard% and 16.7 HR/FB with six HRs over his last five starts with occasional control issues too. The Marlins stack entirely RH behind Ichiro Suzuki (337 wRC+ last seven days), who is one of two Marlins swinging the bat well recently. J.T. Realmuto moves up to 3rd against a pitcher with a .351 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season, but he has just a 104 wRC+, .184 ISO vs lefties since last season at a moderate cost tonight. The two bats to look at are an ice cold Stanton on a strikeout rampage, but a 189 wRC+ with an unconscionable .457 ISO and 55.8 Hard% vs LHP since last season. The cold streak has slightly reduced his cost tonight, as you rarely see him below $5K (DK) or $4K (FD) vs a lefty. Marcell Ozuna (163 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the other hot bat in the lineup (192 wRC+ last seven days), though now costs $5K on DraftKings tonight.

Bartolo Colon made tabloid headlines, walked five last time out.

Before his last start, Bartolo Colon made tabloid headlines for the wrong reasons and promptly went out and walked consecutive batters for the first time in nine years not just once, but twice and ended with five walks overall. Colon’s ceiling is not what makes him occasionally useful in a daily fantasy sense, it’s a reasonable floor from not walking batters and compounding a now 35.3 Hard%. Without the certainty of that control, he doesn’t have much to offer. The Nationals have just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP with only Harper (198 wRC+, .343 ISO) and Murphy (137 wRC+, .205 ISO) with a wRC+ above 92 against righties since last year. Both are solid overall plays at a high cost that might hamper your pitching options though. This is otherwise a matchup without a lot of cost based appeal.

Rays have a 123 wRC+ vs LHP and 156 wRC+ with a 19.7 HR/FB over the last week.

The Rays are going with an all RH lineup against LH Wei-Yin Chen, who is generating a few more ground balls this year, but has a career .333 wOBA allowed and 11.7 HR/FB to RHBs on a 0.89 GB/FB. The Rays have a 122 wRC+ on the road, 123 wRC vs LHP, and 156 wRC+ with a 19.7 HR/FB over the last week. You just need to look at the top of the lineup for some affordable high value bats tonight. Mikie Mahtook returns to the Rays with a 180 wRC+ and .362 ISO vs LHP for under $3K on DraftKings. Steve Pearce has a 120 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season, improving those numbers to 285 and .459 in a small sample this year. He has a 305 wRC+ with a 50.0 Hard% over the last week. Evan Longoria (152 wRC+, .225 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the most expensive player in the lineup and has a 92.3 mph aEV off of Chen in 12 batted balls since last season and six extra base hits (two HRs) in 37 career ABs. Tampa Bay is projected to score just 3.55 runs, but could serve as a contrarian stack against a fly ball pitcher tonight, while saving you some cap space to pay up for pitching.

Cubs mixing up the lineup tonight, batting Anthony Rizzo 2nd

The Cubs have been struggling lately, possessing a team wRC+ of 80 over the last 7 days. Tonight, Rizzo will be batting 2nd ahead of Kris Bryant.The Cubs, however, face a tough opposing pitcher, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner’s wOBA vs. left-handed batters is good at 0.212, but it is even more impressive, 0.133, in San Francisco. Rizzo batting second in the order may be attractive on many other nights, but seems like a stay-away tonight.

Stephen Vogt batting third for the Athletics, facing Michael Pineda

Michael Pineda has had an up and down season, sitting at a wOBA allowed of 0.417 to LHB and 0.392 to RHB. The fact that he has a K% against lefties of 25.6% is somewhat worrisome when considering playing a player like Stephen Vogt, but Vogt does not strike out an excessive amount versus RHPs. Vogt finished last year with a K% of 19% against RHP, with an 0.211 ISO.

No Jake Lamb, Wellington Castillo cleaning up for the Diamondbacks

Wellington Castillo has a wRC+ of 225 against left-handed pitching this year. His ISO against RHP is phenomenal, sitting at 0.474. Jaime Garcia has been worse against RHBs than LHBs, but that still has not been very bad. Garcia has a wOBA of 0.249 against RHBs and has done a good job of limiting the longball, allowing 0.46 HR/9 to RHBs.

Blue Jays continue to shuffle the lineup, Jose Bautista leading off and Michael Saunders cleaning up

Phil Hughes has been equally bad against left-handed and right-handed batters, owning a xFIP over 4 against hitters from both sides of the plate. Hughes has allowed a 42% FB% to right-handed batters this year, not the best quality when facing a lineup that begins with Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Leonys Martin leading off and facing Alfredo Simon

Alfredo Simon has been noticeably bad this year and his start today is likely to draw a lot of attention from the DFS community. Simon has a wOBA this year over 0.400 against both LHB and RHB. While the usual LHBs of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Seth Smith are great plays, Leonys Martin is quietly a top-5 hitter for the Mariners against right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 128 vs. RHP. Martin will be more noticeable since he is leading off today, but he is still a solid OF play.

Kevin Roth writes that there is some risk involving the COL @ PIT game, rating it as a YELLOW/ORANGE. Check out his full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/sunday-weather-update-slow-moving-rain-1314059

Drew Stubbs leading off for the Rangers, but actually hit better last year against RHP

Drew Stubbs is getting the opportunity to lead off against left-handed pitcher, Dallas Keuchel today. It may seem like an appealing punt option at first glance, but Stubbs actually performed better against right-handed pitching in 2015, exhibiting an ISO of 0.239 against RHP, compared to 0.125 against LHP. Still, Keuchel does have a 0.397 wOBA in May, and if Stubbs can get on base, he will have Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre behind him to knock him in.

Melky Cabrera batting cleanup with Abreu getting a day off

Yordano Ventura may still be a name brand to some, but he has not pitched like a top shelf pitcher in 2016. His massive 6.80 xFIP against left-handed batters has really hurt his ability to string together quality innings. Ventura’s xFIP is 6.59 away, much higher than his 4.53 xFIP at home, and he will be pitching in Chicago today. Melky Cabrera is getting the opportunity to bat cleanup today and will have the benefit of batting from the left side. Cabrera finished the 2015 season with an ISO of 0.131 against RHP, making him a solid mid-priced outfield option.

Jose Ramirez batting 5th for the Indians at Fenway Park today

After a hot start, Rick Porcello has seen his xFIP climb from 3.07 in March/April to 4.43 in May. His K% also dropped from 28% to 16%. Porcello’s xFIP has been similar against both LHB and RHB, sitting at 3.35 and 3.87, respectively. Carlos Santana, leading off, is the obvious target on the Indians, while Jose Ramirez makes for a sneaky Sunday start with base stealing upside from the 5th spot.

Freddie Freeman should fly under the radar in a plus matchup on Sunday

Jerad Eickhoff has been more vulnerable when facing left-handed batters, allowing a wOBA of 0.385 against LHB. The Braves have not been a good offense this year, but Freddie Freeman’s 0.222 ISO versus RHPs makes him a worthy target on Sunday, playing in a hitter friendly ballpark in Philadelphia.