DFS Alerts

De Aza leads off; Granderson, Cespedes OUT vs Moscot

Jon Moscot should be a punching bag tonight with an 8.3 K% and 5.03 ERA with estimators running a run higher. The question is only which Mets batters to use. Conforto (155 wRC+, .275 ISO) is obvious name even with his price increasing finally. He has a 60.0 Hard% over the last week. With Granderson and Cespedes out, Alejandro De Aza (110 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) lands in the coveted leadoff spot. David Wright is swinging and missing too often, but punishing what he makes contact with (54.6 Hard% last seven days, 256.35 foot avg distances this season). Lucas Duda (127 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP) and Neil Walker (116 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) can round out any stacks. Both have a 150+ wRC+, 35+ Hard% over the last week.

Vogt, Burns sit against Verlander

Stephen Vogt is one of Oakland’s top LH bats and his absence gives Justin Verlander a slight bump tonight. He’s struck out 18 of his last 52 batters, but also allowed four of them to homer. HRs haven’t previously been an issue for Verlander even in these recent lean years though with a HR/FB that’s only once gotten past nine in his career. He’s still difficult to trust and not very cheap, but could do in a pinch if necessary in a slightly favorable matchup if he’s to continue punching out batters like he has in recent starts. With HRs potentially being an issue and Verlander’s .309 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2015, Khris Davis, moved up to the cleanup spot might be a sneaky name to look at. He has a 120 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since last year and a 173 wRC+, 47.6 Hard% over the last week with a solid 94.08 avg exit velocity this season. He can be had for $3K or less on both major sites.

Bruce, Phillips remain out vs Harvey

Matt Harvey continues to struggle with his command, though an offense like Atlanta wasn’t able to take advantage of it. There are some good signs, like a velocity rebound and a 9.0 SwStr% that’s well below his norm, but still suggests much better than a 14.3 K%. He’s also inducing a ton of weak contact with the lowest exit velocity on today’s board (85.12 mph avg) and a 30.7 Soft%. The Reds have a 68 wRC+ vs RHP this season and Votto can’t do it alone. Even a broken and expensive Harvey can be useful against an offense as poor as the Reds. With plenty of punching bags lining up tonight, there really aren’t any bats to stretch for here. Cincinnati has the 3rd lowest run projection tonight (3.39).

Buster Posey gets day off in only afternoon game of the day

The Giants are resting their star catcher this afternoon when they take on the Padres in San Francisco. Andrew Cashner takes on Jeff Samardzija in the only afternoon game of the day and with the Giants being large (-182) favorites, Samardzija is a GPP option if you’re looking for a lower priced pitching option. No one on the Padres strikes fear into the heart of any pitcher and while a few have the potential to have a big game every now and then, they are best left avoided unless you’re going for a contrarian team stack. Cashner is vulnerable to left-handed bats over the course of his career (although he’s been a bit of a reverse splits pitcher the last few seasons). Anyone in the Giants top six is a reasonable play, especially LH bats Denard Span, Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt.

Johnny Cueto boasts a Hard% of just 20.7%

Luckily for Cueto, he gets to square off against the light hitting Padres at home in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park tonight. We are all well aware of the Padres struggles against RHP this season (team .259 wOBA – 25K ), and that trend will likely continue tonight. Cueto has performed pretty well this season, posting a 20.7 Hard Hit Rate while racking up three wins in the process. He makes for a pretty safe pitcher tonight, and is a great play in both GPP’s and Cash games.

Carl Crawford is back from injury, batting 7th for the Dodgers

Carl Crawford was activated from the DL today and has been slotted in the 7 hole tonight against RHP Tom Koehler. While he isn’t overly appealing when he is hitting low in the order, he should get a fair share of AB’s against righties throughout the season (.346 wOBA – 114 wRC+ career vs RHP). As for Tom Koehler, he is a pretty easy pitcher to avoid tonight, given he is a -300 underdog going up against Clayton Kershaw. Koehler has also struggled against lefties in the past, making Adrian Gonzalez (.380 wOBA – .229 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Seager (.380 wOBA vs RHP) targets at their respective positions. The Dodgers 1-7 hitters actually all make for a very solid GPP stack tonight, especially given their power potential.

Kershaw, as always, the top pitcher on the board

The only question when it comes to Clayton Kershaw is how much he costs. He’s once again the most expensive and the best pitcher on the board even among a handful of aces tonight. His 27.0 K% and 13.4 SwStr% are actually a drop from last year and may represent his floor. There are no Miami bats you can feel comfortable rostering against the best pitcher in baseball even with Stanton’s 207 wRC+, .540 ISO, and 52.5 Hard% vs LHP in just 72 plate appearance since 2015. The Marlins are the only team projected for less than three runs tonight (2.91) on our Vegas Odds page.

Weaver down to 82 mph, 9.6 K%, Hosmer, Moustakas hitting the ball hard (40+ Hard%)

Somehow, Jered Weaver still has a 3.12 ERA, but has struck out just 9.6 K% of the batters he’s faced with a fastball averaging just 82 mph. While he’s been known to generate a low BABIP, .250 is 20 points below his career average and he has a 90.9 LOB%. This has to catch up with him sooner or later and he faces a team tonight that makes a lot of contact. With a .342 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last year, Eric Hosmer (142 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Mike Moustakas (127 wRC+ vs RHP) have both been hitting the ball hard (40+ Hard% last seven days) and are strong candidates to do some damage to the soft tossing righty.

Karns takes on the power packed HOU lineup tonight

While Nate Karns does hold a career 23.4K%, his career walk rate of 9.4% is quite alarming. He’s definitely not someone that we want to actively roster tonight, or throughout the DFS season. While the Astros do tend to strikeout pretty often as a team (27K %), they are in a pretty good spot tonight to do some damage against Karns. Carlos Correa(.359 wOBA – 209 ISO in 2015 vs RHP) and Jose Altuve (101 wRC+ – 26 SB’s in 2015 vs RHP) are both in consideration as the top plays at their respective positions, and Colby Ramus (.449 wOBA – .387 ISO in 2016) has been on fire recently and is now tied for third in the MLB with 7 HR’s.

Keuchel continues to struggle with velocity and control

Dallas Keuchel is throwing less pitches in the strike zone and getting fewer calls according to a fangraphs article last week. He did however generate 23 swinging strikes as he got batters to chase once again in his last start. His velocity remains down and he allowed six runs in that start though. With these concerns remaining and a loaded board of pitchers tonight, it’s difficult to recommend him, but since he is still generating ground balls 55% of the time, it’s tough to really attack him in a tough park, making this a good situation to altogether avoid. If you wanted to look at a couple of low owned players though, Nelson Cruz (203 wRC+, .332 ISO vs LHP since last year) always torches LHP and Franklin Gutierrez (166 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP) has been a surprise at a very low price.

Looks like we have a pretty sticky situation in Texas this evening. While it seems as if the rain will hold off long enough to get the NYY/TEX game in, the threat of severe storms/tornados following the game presents a very high risk factor. He is considering the game YELLOW, but that can change to ORANGE/RED at any time. Make sure to read the full report linked below before making any final lineup decisions.

Volquez velocity, SwStr% have dropped since 1st start.

Edinson Volquez opened some eyes when he opened the season throwing 95 mph, the same way he ended the post-season. However, his velocity has dropped back down again in his last two starts with a SwStr% that hasn’t exceeded 7.1. His ERA remains at 1.46 due to an 89.8 LOB%. Additionally, while the Angels aren’t to thought of as a bad matchup suddenly, they’ve started to pick it up slightly with at least four runs scored in each of their last three games and people other than Mike Trout (168 wRC+ .291 ISO vs RHP since 2015, 305 wRC+ last seven days) starting to hit. Albert Pujols teed off for two HRs last night and new 2nd spot hitter Rafael Ortega has a 108 wRC+ over the last week. It’s not a spot where you want too much exposure, though Mike Trout is always a welcome addition to any daily fantasy lineup he can be afforded in.

Story, Hundley sit - Gerrit Cole tests his ability tonight in Coors Field

As general rule of thumb in DFS, we never want to roster a pitcher starting in Coors Field. Another well documented strategy is to stack COL players when they are playing at home. Well tonight, Gerrit Cole may serve as a solid reason to deviate from those strategies. Cole holds a 25K% to go along with a 1.88 FIP this season and is fresh off of a 7 SO – 0 ER outing against the Padres 5 days ago. While we can’t expect him to match (or exceed) his stat line from last time out, he has a better chance at slowing the Rockies down than most pitchers. Although the Rockies own a Vegas projected run total of 4.65, their lineup is not overly intimidating tonight, with the exception of Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez who are always in play when the game is in Coors Field. Gerrardo Parra (.339 wOBA – 101 wRC+ career vs RHP) is hitting leadoff and also is a pretty good spot to look if you want to have exposure to the game tonight.

Abreu & Frazier have five combined HRs off Dickey

While Pitcher vs Batter is often hotly debated, one scenario where it may mean more is against a knuckleballer. R.A. Dickey is generating an above average SwStr% again this year, which is where the good news ends for him unfortunately with a 6.10 ERA and still poor 4.33 SIERA. In just 21 plate appearances, Jose Abreu (3) and Todd Frazier (2) have a combined five HRs against him, including a 105 avg exit velocity for Abreu in two batted balls last season. These are small samples that may not mean much, but also may mean they see the knuckler well.

Miguel Montero scratched, David Ross to catch and bat 8th

Montero has been scratched due to a stiff back, but is reportedly still available off the bench in an emergency. Javier Baez will likely act as the emergency catcher. With Montero out of the lineup, David Ross will catch and bat 8th, while Addison Russell moves up one spot from #8 to #7. With cool temperatures expected in Chicago (not to mention winds blowing in), the bats aren’t terribly appealing targets.