DFS Alerts
Griffin has a career 0.73 GB/FB, 11.7 HR/FB faces four Yankee bats with 200+ ISO vs RHP
A.J. Griffin has a 3.18 ERA built on a .220 BABIP and 16.7 K% and ERA estimators two runs higher. A career 0.73 GB/FB and 11.7 HR/FB make him a pitcher to target against a Yankee lineup with four bats boasting a .200+ ISO vs RHP since last season. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are not among them and only average vs RHP since last season, but should make it into any Yankee stacks as they’ll be the ones scoring the runs ahead of the big bats if all go right. Carlos Beltran (126 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Mark Teixeira (150 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP) are two of the bats you want, but Brian McCann (110 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) makes a tough position a little easier in the five spot, while Dustin Ackley (95 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) might be the surprising and most affordable name here. The Yankees have the 3rd highest run projection tonight (4.8).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Dustin Ackley, A.J. Griffin
Twins power bats are in good position tonight at home against Cody Anderson
Surprisingly the slumping Twins are in a pretty good spot tonight against Cody Anderson in Target Field. Anderson (career 12K%) is not going to strike anyone out, which serves as a welcome site for the Twins, who have been striking out at a historical clip recently. This is the kind of matchup where we want to buy low on the MIN power bats, especially in GPP’s. Byung-Ho Park already has 3 HR’s at home vs RHP and boasts and ISO of .440 to go along with a 197 wRC+ against them. Miguel Sano is always a threat for a few bombs, and owns a career .291 ISO and .432 wOBA against RHP in Target Field. Finally, Oswaldo Arcia serves as another nice GPP power option given his career clip of a .260 ISO and 140 wRC+ at home against righties.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Byung-ho Park, Oswaldo Arcia
McCutchen returns to face lefty in top projected lineup tonight
Andrew McCutchen (148 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) returns to the lineup in the two hole to face LHP Jorge de la Rosa, who has allowed a .344 wOBA to RHBs since last year. The perennial MVP candidate has struggled a bit recently, but still holds a 269.61 foot average batted ball distance this season (3rd best with 20 batted ball minimum). The Pirates played their part last night, reaching their run projection despite a generous strike zone that got several Rockies tossed. Jordy Mercer (125 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) provides value at SS from the leadoff spot. David Freese (109 wRC+ vs LHP) and Starling Marte (99 wRC+ vs LHP) have their surprisingly average bats vs LHP amplified in Colorado, with Freese at a particularly attractive price below $4K. Francisco Cervelli (142 wRC+ vs LHP) is the top catcher on the board and take a good look at Jason Rogers (117 wRC+ vs LHP) at an affordable price, below $3.5K on both major sites. Some of these Pirate bats are cheap enough to leave you some room for at least one strong pitcher tonight. They have the top run projection (5.35) by far tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jorge De La Rosa, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Jason Rogers Jake Odorizzi owns a career 5.2 HR/FB% while pitching at home
Jake Odorizzi makes for an interesting option tonight against the Orioles, as he boasts an elite 5.2HR/FB% at home in Tropicana, which greatly diminishes the power upside of the BAL bats tonight. In 2015, Odorizzi had 23.9K% at home to go along with a 6.7 BB%. We also know that the Orioles are somewhat strikeout prone, given their 23.4K% against RHP this year. With all this said, Odorizzi makes for a very interesting GPP option this evening if you believe that he can work his way through the power bats of the BAL lineup.
As reported by: Fangraphs Holliday, Adams OUT, Carpenter bats 3rd vs struggling Miller
Shelby Miller has been a disaster in Arizona. His devastating 8.59 ERA actually matches his FIP and it doesn’t get any easier tonight with his old team coming to town. Matt Holiday left yesterday’s game with an injury and remains out, while Matt Adams sits for the 2nd night in a row forcing a bit of a shakeup in the St Louis lineup. Jeremy Hazelbaker (163 wRC+, .419 ISO vs RHP) returns to the lineup to bat leadoff, pushing Matt Carpenter (150 wRC+, .252 ISO, 41 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) into the three spot. Stephen Piscotty (120 wRC+ vs RHP) and Randal Grichuk (145 wRC+, .284 wRC+ vs RHP) should be a part of your Cardinals exposure too in the two and four spots in a friendly hitting environment. Additionally, three Cardinals (Carpentar, Grichuk, and Moss) in tonight’s lineup have an average batted ball distance above 250 feet this year, all top 20 marks in the majors (20 batted ball minimum).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Randal Grichuk, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Shelby Miller Luis Severino boasts a 1.4BB% so far this year
While Luis Severino has seen his walk rate decrease so far throughout this young season, his strikeout rate has come down along with it. His BB% is down to 1.4% while his K% has declined down to 15.3%. Time will tell if these trends will continue for Severino, but what he do know is that he is a GB pitcher who generates ground balls around 50-55% of the time. On the Texas side of things, there aren’t any players that stick out as “must plays” tonight. However, if you are looking to attack Severino this evening Rougned Odor (.322 wOBA – .188 ISO career vs RHP), Nomar Mazara (.497 wOBA – .233 ISO – 234 wRC+ vs RHP) and Mitch Moreland (.203 ISO – 110 wRC+ career vs RHP) are all players to consider.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara Ryan Braun OUT vs Cubs and Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks was already one of the more interesting non-All Star names on our pitching board tonight. He’s been through a couple of rough starts in Arizona and St Louis, coming out with an ERA (4.00) about a run higher than his ERA estimators (2.86 xFIP/2.65 FIP). He strikes out batters at almost exactly an average rate with a SwStr% just above 8% each of his three seasons so far. The Brewers already had a 25.7 K% vs RHP and now are without their top bat with Ryan Braun out. With a ground ball rate up to 56.4%, home runs are less of a threat, especially with a strong wind blowing in from center (25 mph according to our Weather Page). Kendricks’ only issue has been a 56.1 LOB% this season that should course correct itself. Joe Maddon will sometimes limit the amount of times he lets the middle of his rotation get through the order, but Kendricks should have a long enough leash to produce a quality start here. As Braun is the only Brewer with a wRC+ above 108 vs RHP since last season there are no bats of interest in the Milwaukee lineup under these conditions.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Martin remains out, just two LH bats for Toronto against Chris Sale
One of the two LH bats for Toronto against Chris Sale bats leadoff, but Chris Sale has been equally dominant against batters from both side with a wOBA against below .280 no matter which side you come to up to the plate. Sale’s SwStr% is down a bit from last year, but still a healthy 11.1% and above 15% in two of four starts. He has a 31.0 K% over the last two calendar years and is probably one of the very few LHPs we wouldn’t attack with Blue Jays and even strongly consider using. Toronto does have an 18.2 HR/FB, but also a 24.0 K% vs LHP this year. The big three hit well vs LHP with Bautista and Encarnacion in the 130-140 wRC+ range, but only Josh Donaldson (195 wRC+, .369 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs LHP) has destroyed them since last season. In addtion, he has a 52.4 Hard% and 176 wRC+ over the last week. He is the only batter in this lineup you should even realistically consider against the dominant lefty. This is one of the few times you’ll ever see Toronto with a run projection (3.7) below four against a lefty.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson Devin Mesoraco, Brandon Phillips out of CIN lineup tonight
Brandon Phillips will sit this one out today after getting plunked in the hand with a Noah Syndergaard fastball last night…but can you blame him? Devin Mesoraco will also take a seat tonight while Tucker Barnhart takes on the catching duties. The Reds will face Bartolo Colon this evening with an implied Vegas run total of 3.46. Colon has actually pitched quite well this season, boasting a 2.73 xFIP and a 22.7K%. As if the Reds lineup wasn’t mediocre enough to consider rostering Bartolo, the absence of both Phillips and Mesoraco makes him a legit SP 2 on DK given his low price point ($6.4K) and a pitcher to consider in GPP’s on Fanduel. As long as he can get through the slumping Joey Votto tonight, there isn’t a whole lot standing in his way of a win.
As reported by: Fangraphs Coghlan .220 ISO vs RHP for low price in two slot vs Pelfrey
Mike Pelfrey has somehow turned a -5.6 K-BB%, .367 BABIP, and 16.7 HR/FB into a 3.68 ERA with estimators over two runs higher. He has allowed a .382 wOBA to LHBs last year and is definitely a pitcher we want to target tonight with the team projected to score the 2nd most runs tonight (4.8) even with a game at Coors. The prime target should be Chris Coughlan (124 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since last season) at a low price in the two slot. Stephen Vogt (125 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) is also usually a popular catcher choice at a similarly low price, while Josh Reddick (134 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) plays the OF and costs a bit more, but performs equally well. Billy Burns (95 wRC+ vs RHP) isn’t a great bat, but is the most likely to steal a base and score some runs ahead of the pack.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, Mike Pelfrey Rich Hill has exactly 10 Ks in five of eight starts since last season
Rich Hill has now started four games in each of the last two seasons and has struck out exactly 10 in five of those starts. Tonight, he can be had for still just exactly $7.7K on either major site and that’s probably because he takes the mound against a lineup full of talented RH bats. Gose and Upton are the only two Tiger bats without at least a 135 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and Detroit has a team 121 wRC+, 15.6 K%, and 20.1 Hard-Soft% against them. Hill has walked eight, but struck out 21 of 64 RH batters faced this season with just 1 HR. This would be a very contrarian play, but Hill has the upside to make this work with a .263 wOBA to RHBs since last year. Aside from Upton, you could still look at Saltalamacchia (148 wRC+, .320 ISO vs LHP since last season), Castellanos (158 wRC+ vs LHP), and V.Martinez (145 wRC+vs LHP) all for below $3K on FanDuel, but this might otherwise be a pitcher we don’t want to move too heavily against.
Other tagged players: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez Ortiz remains OUT in NL park, Ramirez returns vs Wisler
David Ortiz remains on the bench for the 2nd straight night in an NL park, but Hanley Ramirez returns to face Matt Wisler, who has a 3.10 ERA built on a .207 BABIP. He has just an 8.3 LD%, but a 31.1 Hard% and is not really what we’re looking for with an 8.0 SwStr% against Boston. There’s also very little value in the Boston lineup with Ortiz, though the top three batters (Betts, Pedroia, and Boegarts) all have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week. Wisler has a .269 wOBA vs RHP so far in his young career though.
Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Wisler Dickerson (153 wRC+ vs RHP) deserves a strong look vs Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez is the guy you always find yourself regretting using as he is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. Thankfully, with an abundance of pitching talent tonight, it’s really a decision that shouldn’t be difficult to avoid with eight walks and just 11 Ks over his last two starts. Because he’s so unpredictable, we’re not really confident in attacking him either, but one name deserves a long look at an unreasonably low price ($3.2K) on both major sites. Corey Dickerson has a 153 wRC+, .312 ISO, 41.7 Hard% vs RHP since last season and is showing he is not just a product of Coors with a 250 ft avg distance on batted balls this season. He provides great value and salary relief for those paying up for pitching tonight. Brad Miller moves into the 2nd spot as Logan Morrison returns to bat 6th. Neither has hit a lick in their new uniforms however.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Ubaldo Jimenez Cespedes, Duda, d'Arnaud OUT for Mets vs LHP Finnegan
Cespedes and d’Arnaud remain out due to injury, while Lucas Duda sits against the LHP, giving Michael Conforto a rare start against a lefty in the cleanup spot. Brandon Finnegan has some talent, but has 11 walks to just nine strikeouts over his last three starts and there are a few spots of interest in this Mets lineup, starting with David Wright, who has been swinging and missing a lot, but also hitting it hard (94.74 avg ExVel) and far (264.78 ft avg dist) when he does make contact, while still holding a 206 wRC+, .295 ISO, and 38.9 Hard % vs LHP since last season. Conforto hasn’t proven that he can hit LHP yet, but hasn’t proven that he can’t either. Neil Walker has been just average vs LHP (97 wRC+) since the start of last season, but has 3 HRs in just 11 PAs vs southpaws this year. Lastly, Wilmer Flores is the $2K minimum on FanDuel with a 152 wRC+ vs LHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Finnegan Velasquez hasn't walked a batter in two starts, Nats just 2 batters in lineup 90 wRC+ vs RHP
Vincent Velasquez may have done us a favor by not dominating in his last start (keeping his price reasonable), but he didn’t pitch too poorly either and perhaps most importantly, he hasn’t walked a batters since his first start, dropping his walk rate down to 4.1% with a K rate still hovering near 40%. Further, the Nationals have two above average hitters vs RHP since last season (Harper & Murphy – two obvious names). While you can never tell someone to ditch Harper (208 wRC+, .373 ISO, 39.6 Hard% vs RHP since 2015), there are really no other worthwhile looks in this lineup. Velasquez is a top pitching option with potentially lower ownership due to a loaded board and at a lower cost than the top tier arms.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy