DFS Alerts
Corbin has decreased K%, .345 wOBA vs RHBs
The Cardinals haven’t hit lefties (95 wRC+) as well as righties, but have been pounding the ball over the last week (142 wRC+, 18.0 HR/FB) and do have a 20.4 Hard-Soft% against LHP, so they should come around, especially with all those RH bats in the middle of their lineup. Patrick Corbin has seen a 5 point drop in his K% down to 16.4 and has been hit especially hard (28.1 Hard-Soft%) early on, so we’ll want to stay away from him in a dangerous run environment tonight. Stephen Piscotty’s 156 wRC+ and .236 ISO vs LHP since last season leads the team and is a great lineup addition for under $4K tonight. In fact, Yadier Molina (61 wRC+ vs LHP) is the only below average bat against LHP in this lineup. There is potentially great vaule up and down this lineup with not a right-handed bat above $3.6K on either major site. Corbin has a .345 wOBA against RHBs since last year.
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin
Twins RHP Jose Berrios to make MLB debut tonight
The call that Twins fans have been waiting oh so patiently for has come, Jose Berrios is finally in the big leagues. Berrios has had electric stuff in the minors, owning a 26.2K% – 5.7 BBK% – 0.65HR/9 throughout 166 IP. His strikeout stuff is evident, as shown by his 9.5 K/9 rate. He’ll face off against the Indians tonight at home in Target Field, as long as the weather holds up (make sure to check Kevin Roth’s weather report before lineup lock). Working in his favor tonight is the fact that as a team, the Indians strikeout 24% of the time against RHP and rank in the bottom third of HR’s hit against them. Given his strikeout potential and cheap price tag ($6.9K on DraftKings), Berrios shapes up to be a very solid SP2 with upside this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs
Rockies have top run projection (5.5) on the slate.
Ryan Raburn is going to be the lead whenever the Rockies face a LHP at Coors due to his 175 wRC+, .288 ISO, and 41.6 Hard% against them since last season. It’s unfortunate that he bats in the 6th spot and costs slightly more now, but this is still a bat you want in your lineup. Similar can be said of Mark Reynolds with mediocre numbers against lefties (102 wRC+, .198 ISO) for the same price, especially against the soft tosser Niese. The Rockies have struggled with LHP this year like last and were shut down by a very similar pitcher in Locke just two nights ago, but had the assistance of a generous strike zone that could a couple of Rockies tossed from the game. Unfortunately, there are no other bats in the lineup with a wRC+ above 100 vs LHP since last season (this includes Arenado’s 93), but with the run environment amplification here and the top run projection of the night (5.5), generous exposure to this lineup all the way through is in order as always.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jon Niese, Mark Reynolds Adam Wainwright owns league low 8.7K%
Adam Wainwright has flat out been awful this year. He owns a MLB low 8.7K% and ranks in the top 10 in Hard% with a mark of 38.1%. It’s not going to get any easier for him tonight, as he will be pitching against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field. Wainwright is an easy fade tonight. With a Vegas projected run total of 4.76, the Diamondbacks should put some runs on the board. David Peralta (.351 wOBA – .210 ISO – 110 wRC+ career vs RHP) mashes RHP at home and should be right in the thick of things tonight. Jake Lamb (.393 wOBA – .235 ISO – 137 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) is batting second and represents a top value play at the 3B position, while Paul Goldschmidt (.381 wOBA – .217 ISO – 139 wRC+ career vs RHP in Chase Field) is always in consideration while playing at home. Fire up the 1-6 Diamonback hitters with confidence this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt Arrieta has great matchup vs Brewers, threw 119 pitches in no-hitter
It’s not an extraordinary number of pitches to throw, but more than most pitchers usually do these days and Joe Maddon will be conscious of that. Otherwise, Arrieta is in a great position tonight against the Brewers, who strike out 25.8% of the time vs RHP. It’s interesting to note that the K% is slightly down for Arrieta this season and we can’t expect him to duplicate last season’s success, sitting on a 98.9 LOB% so far this year, but there’s no reason his dominance shouldn’t continue against this lineup for as long as his manager lets him pitch. Milwaukee has tonight’s lowest projected run total (2.9) per our Vegas Odds page
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Prince Fielder OUT tonight against LHP Sabathia
With Prince Fielder getting the night off, Ian Desmond will slide up to the cleanup spot this evening. While Desmond (.336 wOBA – 111 wRC+ – 179 ISO career vs LHP) should definitely be in consideration for your lineups this evening, Adrian Beltre may perhaps be the top option of all the Rangers tonight. A lefty masher, Beltre (.376 wOBA – .215 ISO – 134 wRC+ career vs LHP) should have no problem hitting Sabathia and his 2016 13.7K% – 5.45 xFIP. Also to be considered include Delino DeShields (.324 wOBA vs LHP) and Nomar Mazara, who are batting first and second in a lineup projected to score 5.04 runs.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond Sano has been punishing baseballs over the last week (199 wRC+, 40 Hard%)
Miguel Sano has an average batted ball distance of 257.67 feet with a 93.03 avg exit velocity this season. He has hit RHP for a 143 wRC+ and .235 ISO in his young career so far, while punishing all pitching at a 199 wRC+ pace with a 40.0 Hard% over the last week. The RH slugger can be had for under $4K on both major sites tonight. Josh Tomlin has shown some talent in missing bats the last couple of years, but has often been held off the field by injuries recently and has made just two starts this season. Both were fine, but he also left one of those starts due to injury. Over his career, RHBs have hit him slightly better for a .331 wOBA, making Sano even more interesting tonight. Eduardo Nunez is the other interesting bat against RHP (144 wRC+ since 2015), but drops to 7th in the order tonight. Tomlin has some upside in his arm and the Twins do have a 23.7 K% vs RHP. It’s not the worst spot for him, but a nearly $9K price tag might neutralize the expected value.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin, Eduardo Nunez Gio Gonzalez has struck out 16 of last 52 batters, in prime spot against Phillies
Gio Gonzalez has been pitching about as well as we’ve ever seen him to start the season with a 26.7 K% and just four walks, including his best start of the season against these Phillies recently. The Phillies have just a 43 wRC+ and 33.8 K% vs LHP this year making Gio perhaps the most popular pitcher tonight in a spot where he should generate great value. Trepidation is understandable at $9.6K on both sites with his history, but you’re not going to find much better tonight. Roster Gonzalez with as much confidence as you can muster.
Sonny Gray holds 60.3%GB this year
With 3 wins on the season, Sonny Gray has pitched pretty well thus far. His GB% is about 6 points above his career average to 60.3% while his LD% has decreased 4 points from his career average down to 13.7%. But unfortunately, there just isn’t a whole lot to get excited about tonight with Gray, as he only strikeouts guys around a league average clip and faces a power packed Detroit lineup. At his price point, there are better options with strikeout upside (see: Gio Gonzalez). As for the Tiger bats, they own a Vegas projected run total of 3.71, which is one of the lower marks of tonight’s slate. Miguel Cabrera is affordably priced on DraftKings ($3.8K) and has a 150 wRC+ and .240 ISO against RHP in his career. Also affordably priced on DraftKings sits Victor Martinez ($3.3K) and holds a 119 wRC+ and .355 wOBA against RHP in Comerica throughout his career.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez Blue Jays face another tough Chicago left-hander in Quintana
Jose Quintana has seemingly improved every season he’s been in the majors with a wider and wider gap between his K% and BB%. It’s up to 17.7% this season. The Blue Jays are normally terror on LHP, but were beaten by one of the best last night and Quintana has allowed just a total of 26 HRs over his last 431 innings. While this lineup is full of above average and devastating bats against LHP, but with few other great mound choices tonight, Quintana should still be someone that’s considered despite the high cost. He’s been about average vs RHP since last season (.319), so Josh Donaldson (187 wRC+, .358 ISO vs LHP since last season) can’t be taken out of play, but this might be one rare lefty you consider avoiding with Toronto bats. They have a 15.6 HR/FB vs LHP, but also a 23.5 K% this year.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson Wright's knuckleball has generated a 11.4 SwStr% in 2016
You never know what a knuckleball is going to do, but Steven Wright’s has missed bats pretty often so far (11.4 SwStr%, 21.0 K%). He won’t hold an 85.4 LOB% all season, but he’s very affordable and he’s facing the Braves, two things that earn you immediate consideration all by themselves. The Braves have a 67 wRC+ vs RHP (3.1 HR/FB) and have struck out in over a quarter of their PAs (25.8%) over the last week. They’ve hit 3 HRs all season and none in nearly two weeks. Wright makes for an excellent GPP play tonight with little interest in any of the Atlanta bats at this point.
Ortiz (162 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) returns to lineup against Braves back in AL park
The Braves were able to hide from David Ortiz (162 wRC+, .319 ISO, 43.5 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) the last two days in an NL park, but he returns against the launching pad known as Bud Norris, who has now allowed a .401 wOBA to LHBs since last season. Travis Shaw (122 wRC+ vs RHP) drops back down to 6th, but filled in well up higher in the order the last couple of days and is another LH bat with some pop. Norris hasn’t been much better against RHBs either (.357 wOBA) and with all three of Boston’s righties at the top of the order (Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts) holding a 200+ wRC+ over the last week, it makes for a convenient and powerful five person stack.
Other tagged players: Bud Norris, Travis Shaw, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts Dickerson (150 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP) brings the power vs Tillman (1.05 GB/FB)
While most of his numbers have come in Colorado, Corey Dickerson still has a 249 avg distance and 93.63 avg exit velocity in Tampa Bay this season. Add that to a 202 wRC+ and 36.8 Hard% over the last week and it could spell trouble for Chris Tillman’s 1.05 GB/FB this year. Tillman has inconsistently shown signs of his potential over the years, but never for a long enough period to deserve your trust. He always ends up with ERA estimators above four with an ERA that often matches. While merely average or slightly better against RHP since last year, Logan Forsythe has a 242 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% over the last week and Brad Miller has hit the ball hard (45.5 Hard%) as well without results yet.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Chris Tillman, Brad Miller Hellickson allowed 5 ERs to Washington last time, but 13.0 SwStr% in 2016
Jeremy Hellickson did not fare so well against Washington earlier this month, allowing five ERs and he has a 35.0 Hard% overall, but has also generated a 13.0 SwStr% throwing fewer fastballs and a curveball with the 2nd highest spin rate and 6th most veritcal drop in baseball. Continue to fire up the two Washington bats that actually hit RHP (Harper – 208 wRC, .371 ISO & Murphy – 128 wRC+, .198 ISO) well since last year. No other batter in the lineup has a wRC+ above 90 against RHP and only Jayson Werth exceeds a 100 wRC+ over the last week among that group. This makes Hellickson an interesting low cost arm with some upside despite his previous rough outing against them.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Jayson Werth Jungmann brings 13.8 K%, 12.5 BB%, and 43.1 Hard% to Wrigley
That’s a dangerous combination, lots of hard contact with few strikeouts, for the young pitcher to bring to Wrigley to face a powerful and patient Cubs lineup. With Tommy La Stella’s 128 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, the top six bats in this lineup are all above average hitters and a prime stacking opportunity depending on Kevin’s late weather update. All eight batters in this lineup have at least a 133 wRC+ over the last week. Anthony Rizzo (238 wRC+ last seven days) and Kris Bryant (188 wRC+ last seven days) both crush RHP (140-150 wRC+ since 2015) and should lead the pack, driving in Fowler and Heyward ahead of them.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella, Taylor Jungmann