DFS Alerts

Julio Teheran on the road = good for opposing team

.423 wOBA vs LH bats and .342 wOBA vs RH bats. Those were the numbers Julio Teheran put up in road games last season and you guessed it… he’s on the road today facing the left-handed bat of Bryce Harper. If you’re looking for an alternative outside of Coors, he has as good a match up as you’re going to get. Daniel Murphy is also in play and Matt den Dekker provides a value left-handed option at the bottom of the lineup. Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman are also playable targets. Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his start yesterday but he has as much upside as any pitcher on this slate and should be under-owned due to the illness concerns – he makes for a great GPP play. There are no bats on Atlanta worth rostering due to the difficult match up.

Game at Coors? You know the drill...

Avoid pitchers, stack hitters is the mantra whenever there is a game at Coors and today is no different, especially with the average arms of Matt Cain and Jorge De La Rosa are on the mound. From the Giants side, the right-handed bats of Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Matt Duffy are your top targets and Kelby Tomlinson is a cheap right-handed punt option (albeit hitting 9th, but it is Coors). From the Rockies you will want to attack with the left-handed bats of Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra and value options Ben Paulsen and Tony Wolters. Mix in some Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Mark Reynolds for some fun.

The Cardinals a team to target for both hitting and pitching against Brewers

Last season, Brewers SP Wily Peralta gave up a .376 wOBA to LH bats and a .349 wOBA to RH bats. Facing a potent Cardinals offense is a recipe for DFS goodness and there are plenty of bats to target on the St. Louis side of things. Matt Carpenter, the red-hot Jeremy Hazelbaker, and Brandon Moss are left-handed bats to target and we can also stack those three with the likes of Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk. The Brewers struggling offense face Jaime Garcia who might be the safest play of the early slate. The Cards are the biggest favorites of the early slate and Garcia doesn’t give up a ton of HR’s (6 allowed last season). He doesn’t have big strikeout upside though so his ceiling is limited. On sites like FanDuel though that 12 point win bonus is huge. If you are going to target any Brewers, it needs to be Ryan Braun who had a .421 wOBA last season against LHP.

Pitching should dominate the Indians-Rays game

Danny Salazar gets to face a struggling Rays offense and the Indians get to face the SP who definitely has the highest upside (with some volatility thrown in) on the early slate in Chris Archer. The game has a low over/under of 7 and both pitchers have very high strikeout rates (26% for Salazar, 29.3% for Archer) that make them preferred targets. Conversely because of the pitching, there is no one we really want to target in terms of hitting outside of maybe Corey Dickerson and his .408 wOBA/.309 ISO vs RHP.

Not a lot to love in the White Sox-Twins game

You would think that a game with a 8.5 run total and two average pitchers taking the mound would have you finding plays left and right for your DFS lineups but that’s not the case with the White Sox-Twins game today. We don’t know which Mat Latos we will get – the one that struggled at the beginning of last season or the one that looked much better in the second half and pitched six shutout innings in his first start. He’s interesting as a GPP flyer because of the Twins struggles against RHP – only Miguel Sano has a wOBA that tops .325. You can target LH bats against the Twins starter Ervin Santana (.337 career wOBA) but Adam Eaton is the only one on the White Sox worth rostering that hits from that side of the plate (Jose Abreu is always in play). In general it’s a game to avoid but there are a few spots you can look to (Sano, Eaton, Jose Abreu, maybe Latos).

A few windy games and slight rain concern in Colorado is all Mr. Roth has for us today and he doesn’t think there are any postponement potential. Check out the RotoGrinders.com Main Forum for the full forecast.

Two bad offenses, but is there potential there in the Padres-Phillies game?

The Padres and Phillies, at least based on projections and last years performances, are two of the worst offenses in all of MLB. However, today, two below-average SP’s take the mound. The Padres SP, Drew Pomeranz, is super effective against LH bats (.227 career wOBA) but not so much against RH bats (.340 career wOBA) and faces a Phillies team that has six RH bats in it’s lineup. Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, and Andres Blanco are the four bats in their lineup that we want to target – Hernandez at .344 has the lowest wOBA against LHP of that group. Rupp and Blanco both topped .390 last season and are great value options. The Phillies SP, Vincent Velasquez, was great in his first outing this season giving up no runs in six innings while striking out nine. He has high upside facing the Padres offense and is a good SP2 on two pitcher sites in GPP’s. As with most young pitchers there is always some inherent risk but there is no one on the Padres that screams must play and any stack involving them will be more risky than rostering Velasquez himself.

Pitching should dominate the Tigers-Pirates game

With a relatively low total of seven, Vegas isn’t expecting many runs to be scored with Jordan Zimmermann taking the mound for the Tigers and the Pirates countering with their ace Gerritt Cole. Zimmermann doesn’t overpower batters but keeps the ball in the park and is generally good at preventing runs. LH bats fare much better against him (.336 wOBA last season, .309 career) so if we’re targeting anyone on the Pirates it would be John Jaso and Gregory Polanco. Cole, on the other hand, can overpower batters with a 24.3% K rate against both LH and RH bats in 2015. The Tigers have a very balanced, tough to deal with line up though so Cole is a secondary option in the early slate of games, especially with the likes of Archer and Strasburg available. While the Tigers do have the potential to score some runs, it’s hard to target their right-handed heavy lineup when facing Cole. Miguel Cabrera and his .420 wOBA vs RHP is always in play as he’s as match up proof as they come.

Rubby de la Rosa has a career .378 wOBA vs LHBs

Rubby de la Rosa gets roasted by LHBs (.378 career wOBA) and fares about average (.304 wOBA) against RHBs. The finally healthy Dodgers lineup stacks six LHBs, all of whom are strong hitters, against him and that should spell trouble. In addition, the two RHBs, Turner and Puig, handle RHP just fine with Turner having a reverse platoon split (147 wRC+ vs RHP since last year). Corey Seager (177 wRC+ vs RHP) and Adrian Gonzalez (134 wRC+ vs RHP) lead the way, but every bat in this lineup is a threat tonight. Chase Utley (82 wRC+ vs RHP) is the only below average hitter vs RHP, but even he has started strong and sits in a great spot atop the lineup.

There’s little to worry about aside from the customary potential shower in Colorado tonight. Check out Kevin’s late weather report on our Weather Page linked below.

Posey out again in Colorado, Giants top projected run line

Buster Posey is out of the lineup for the 2nd straight day in Colorado. That might disappoint some, but also offers opportunity as his replacement, Trevor Brown, homered twice last night. Jordan Lyles is obviously not a person of interest pitching in Colorado and is not good enough to stop us from stacking up the top run projected lineup tonight at an enormous 6.05 runs per our Vegas Odds page (although that may change slightly without Posey). This is a good offense away from a tough home park with just about every regular running a wRC+ above 120 vs RHP since last season, including everyone except Pagan in tonight’s lineup. Heavy exposure to the entire Giants offense tonight is the easiest call.

Goldschmidt has 191 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP since last season, Peralta sits

As will likely be the headline whenever Arizona faces a lefty not named Bumgarner or Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt absolutely mauls southpaws (191 wRC+, .266 ISO since last season). Unfortunately, the only other batter with success against LHP in the lineup is Nick Ahmed (122 wRC+ since last season) and he bats 9th. David Peralta sits against the lefty with Brandon Drury in the five spot. Alex Wood took a wrong turn last season as both his ERA and K% (17.4) went south. The good news is that he’s reworked his release point and is back up to 90 mph at least, generating 11 ground balls in his first start, though with just a 12.0 K%. Jean Segura has started hot in the leadoff spot for Arizona, but may not fare as well on the road. Wood throws too many ground balls to really pick on aside from Goldy, but doesn’t seem to have the upside we’re looking for either anymore.

Twins hitters make for interesting stack against Rodon

While many will be looking to Rodon as a pivot option following the Strasburg news, it may be wise to reconsider. Rodon was terrible against righties last year, allowing a wOBA of .350 and owned the league’s highest walk rate against righties at 12.2%. Brian Dozier (lifetime .218 ISO & .358 wOBA vs LHP), Trevor Plouffe (lifetime .195 ISO & .353 wOBA vs LHP), and Miguel Sano (.226 ISO & .370 wOBA vs LHP in 2015) make for an interesting power mini stack. The Twins bats have been cold lately though, best suiting them for GPP’s.

Abreu has a 144 wRC+ vs RHP, Garcia sits vs Hughes

Phil Hughes generated just four swings and misses against a swing happy Baltimore offense in his first start after just a 5.5 SwStr% last year. He is no longer the same pitcher he once was and has no daily fantasy value currently. Though not known for being a hitter’s park, Minnesota plays about average towards RH power and Jose Abreu has a 144 wRC+ and .241 ISO vs RHP since the start of 2015. Adam Eaton has a 132 wRC+ vs righties over the same period and could swipe a base or two. Avisail Garcia will sit in favor of Jerry Sands tonight.

Scott Feldman did not pitch well at home last year

Feldman held a FIP of 5.19 and a K% of only 12% while pitching at Minute Maid Park in 2015. He also allowed 10 HR’s in 55 IP, and sported a wOBA of .375. The Royals hitters, who are known to put the ball in play, could serve as an interesting low owned stack tonight. While the preferred hitters would be Eric Hosmer (.378 wOBA & 141 wRC+ in 2015 against RHP) and Kendrys Morales (.385 wOBA & .254 ISO in 2015 against RHP), Royals batters 1-6 will all surely be under owned tonight.