DFS Alerts
Cubs host Rockies in lone afternoon game
With only one afternoon game and modest all day slates on the major sites, there won’t be much DFS impact from the Rockies at Cubs game today. Two mediocre pitchers take the mound – Chad Bettis for the Rockies and Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Bettis is much better on the road (for obvious reasons) with a career .297 wOBA (compared to .365 at home) – he’s vulnerable to lefties, however, at a career rate of .321 wOBA allowed. Hendricks is also vulnerable to southpaws with a .343 wOBA allowed in 2015 including a 1.49 HR/9 rate. If you are going to play this game at all, target the lefties on both teams that are in the top six of the order. For the Rockies that’d be Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra and for the Cubs that’d be Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Anthony Rizzo. Gonzalez (.418 wOBA, .324 ISO vs RHP) and Rizzo (.371 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP) have the most upside of that group.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Gerardo Parra
No Turner tonight vs LHP Robbie Ray
Justin Turner is NOT in LAD’s lineup tonight. Howie Kendrick (lifetime .299 AVG – .340 wOBA – 115 wRC+ against LHP) will play 3B and bat clean-up, making him a solid under-the-radar option against LHP Ray. Enrique Hernandez will play LF and bat leadoff tonight, providing us one of the top value plays of the night ($2.3k on Fanduel & $3k on DraftKings). Other players to consider include hot hitting Yasiel Puig (.376 wOBA – 147 wRC+ in his career against lefties) and Corey Seager (.352 wOBA – 129 wRC+ in his career against lefties). While Ray has the ability to miss some bats (8.34K/9 last year), he is not a pitcher that we need to avoid. Fire up hitters 1-5 with confidence.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Howie Kendrick, Robbie Ray
Kevin has updated tonight's forecast
There are no concerns in Kevin’s latest updates, but some interesting wind notes, particularly in LA with gusts up to 30 mph out to right. The Dodgers are running their right handed lineup out there against the lefty, but this could be a slight knock against Ross Stripling and upgrade for David Peralta or even Jake Lamb batting from the left side with some power.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Ross Stripling, Jake Lamb
Castillo sits against LD, Stripling tries to say hitless
Due to the fact that he hasn’t allowed a base hit yet, Ross Stripling is likely to be more popular than he otherwise would be tonight. He has some ability with a 20+ K% at each minor league stop, but projects more as a back end starter over the long run. While that might make him over-owned, he’s still very cheap without any other trustable pitchers in his price range. Arizona does have the 2nd lowest projected run line (3.47) on our Vegas Odds page. Note that he walked just as many as he struck out (four) in his debut with a very average nine swings and misses. The D’Backs are very average on the road and sit both Wellington Castillo and Chris Owings in favor of Brandon Drury and Chris Herrmann, which should be of little daily fantasy consequence. Arizona does have a couple of strong hitters even away from home. Goldschmidt has a wRC+ just above 150 both on the road and vs RHP since last season. David Peralta has a 123 wRC+ on the road and 149 wRC+ vs RHP over the same period. Socrates Brito (122 wRC+) remains a value play due to his platoon advantage and lineup spot (2nd). Jean Segura has been hot (220 wRC+ over the last week), but remains a bit tougher sell even atop the lineup with a 69 wRC+, .098 ISO, 20.2 Hard% vs RHP since last year. Stripling may be popular and worth his price tonight, but you don’t have to avoid the two through four spots for Arizona in lineups where you aren’t using him.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Socrates Brito Despite KAN’s lower projected run total, Fister isn’t a good option tonight
Fister, while a serviceable real life pitcher, is not known to be a fantasy relevant hurler. As a pitcher to contact, Fister holds a pedestrian career K% of just over 16%. This is a matchup that the Royals should exploit, as we all are aware that KC hitters rarely strike out. Dating back to last year, the Royals hold a league low 16.3 K% against RH. Good things happen when the ball is put into play, which is exactly what we expect the Royals to do tonight. Eric Hosmer (118 wRC+ and .346 wOBA vs RHP in his career) and Mike Moustakas (123 WRC+ and .353 wOBA since 2015) represent KC’s top plays, but hitters 1-7 can also be considered.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Doug Fister Adam Jones returns against Cole Hamels
After missing the last week, Adam Jones returns to the lineup tonight against the top priced pitcher, Cole Hamels. The Orioles have been the hottest team in the majors, but with just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP in limited opportunities despite a 15.4 HR/FB. Hamels can strike out batters along the level of an elite pitcher (24.4 K% last year) and has generated 17 swings and misses in each of his first two starts, but he also has a penchant for HRs (12.0 HR/FB last year) and BBs (three in each of his first two starts). It’s pretty amazing that he’s allowed just one fly ball in each of his first two starts. He has just a 1.23 career GB/FB though. He’s not a pitcher to pick on tonight, but there might be some merit towards fading him due to inconsistencies and a tough matchup. You’ll probably want at least some Hamels exposure in non-GPPs tonight though, as there’s no other obvious choice. He has a small reverse platoon split for his career (.293 vR, .301 vL), but generally pitches well against hitters from either side. Chris Davis (113 wRC+, .193 ISO, 35.8 Hard% vs LHP since last season) could be the sneaky GPP play here. Mark Trumbo has 9 batted balls and 1 HR off Hamels with an average 97.3 mph exit velocity. The Orioles have a middling run projection of 3.98 tonight according to our Vegas Odds page despite facing the supposed top pitcher tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo Kennedy looks to build on successful KC debut
Ian Kennedy has a skill set that seemed a perfect fit for a spacious Kansas City park with a great outfield defense as a fly ball pitcher who can generate a solid strikeout rate. That showed when he pitched into the seventh, striking out seven of 25 Twins in his first start. Traveling to Houston, he may not be as fortunate. The Astros have pummeled RHP with a 20.0 HR/FB, but with a 28.1 K%. There might be much to like on both sides. Kennedy may allow three HRs, but if he strikes out 10 and the Astros score even five or six runs, he may still have value. You’re going to certainly want some exposure to an offense with a 124 wRC+ vs RHP so far in a home park that plays well to their power too. Each of the top six is above average against RHP since last season with Altuve and Springer actually having the low marks at 106 wRC+. Correa, Rasmus, Tucker, and White in a much smaller sample all have ISOs above .200 against RHP since the start of last season as well. It’s important to note that Evan Gattis sits for the 2nd straight night in favor of Preston Tucker. Luis Valbuena also surprisingly takes a seat in favor of Marwin Gonzalez, who hits lefties better than righties.
Other tagged players: Preston Tucker, Colby Rasmus, Tyler White, Carlos Correa Stroman will have to get through lefty heavy NY lineup
While many people may gravitate towards using Stroman tonight, a few factors come into play that should convince them to reconsider. Stroman will face off against the lefty heavy lineup of the NY Yankees. In his career, Stroman boasts a GB% of 61.4% against RH, while his GB% decreases to 52% against LH. Also, his career K% hovers just around 20%, showing that he may not have the strikeout upside that some may think. His opponent, the Yankees, have been hitting RHP’s very well this season (.353 wOBA, 134 wRC+, .186 ISO) and will have 7 LH in their lineup tonight. Mark Teixeira (.339 ISO, .399 wOBA vs RHP since last year) and Brian McCann (.212 ISO, .325 wOBA vs RHP since last year) are hitters that bring high power upside in hitter friendly Rogers Centre. Stroman will clearly have his hands full tonight, but is still in consideration due to his ability to pitch late into games and because of the lack of pitching options tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann Chris Tillman has struck out 10 of 25 batters faced in 2016
Chris Tillman has started the season on fire, striking out 10 of 25 batters he’s faced across two short starts (one shortened by rain). He’s always one of the tougher pitchers to figure out. He’s had talent, but results have been terrible for the most part and when they’ve been good, they haven’t really matched his peripherals. It makes it very difficult to decide what to do with him tonight with a lot of good, but flawed pitchers on the board otherwise. The Texas offense has struggled vs RHP (25.0 Hard%, 5.8 HR/FB, 72 wRC+ in 271 plate appearances) so far. If you need a cheap secondary pitcher and want to fade the Stripling train tonight, could Tillman be an option? It’s tough to say, but certainly not one in cash games. For the Rangers, Prince Fielder (139 wRC+, .154 ISO, 32.1 Hard%) and Mitch Moreland (124 wRC+, .222 ISO, 36.6 Hard%) have been the only two above average bats against RHP since last season. However, Tillman has a pronounced reverse split the last few seasons and is 16 points of wOBA worse against RHBs for his career (.332 vs .316), so maybe there is something to him as a low owned GPP play tonight. Ian Desmond has a 99.3 exit velocity against Tillman in just 9 batted balls (14 plate appearances) per Baseball Savant.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Ian Desmond Eovaldi continues to feature splitter, generate more Ks
Toronto has a 27.6 K% and just a .129 ISO vs RHPs through 257 PAs. Those numbers are bound to improve significantly, but maybe it’s something we can take advantage of in the moment because Nathan Eovaldi isn’t just a guy who throws hard, but doesn’t miss bats anymore. He started throwing his splitter more often last summer and saw his K% increase with usage (16.5% in the first half, 20.7% in the second half). The pitch itself has generated 15-20% whiffs according to Brooks Baseball and surely has been the difference maker. Expecting many players to feature Jays in their lineups due to Eovaldi’s reputation, maybe you could think about going the way. Despite striking out seven Astros, he was hit hard in his first start though (2 HRs, 5 ERs), so you may still want some Toronto exposure. The big three (Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion) all have a wRC+ between 145-160 and ISOs above .250 vs RHP since last season. Troy Tulowitzki has just an 86 wRC+ vs same handed pitchers with a .150 ISO over the same run.
As reported by: Brooks Baseball Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion Hamilton back atop Cincinnati lineup, Cozart, Mesoraco OUT
Billy Hamilton moves back into the leadoff slot for the Reds and this would seem to be a boon to his value, but he still has to reach base (46 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) to steal bases, though this may be a combination he can run as Montero has a career -6 career Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB) according to his Fangraphs profile page via the Fielding Bible. Additionally, both Cozart and Mesoraco remain out. What they do have however, is a guy named Votto, who slashes RHP for a 165 wRC+, .224 ISO, and 42.6 Hard% since last season. He also has a 96.3 exit velocity (just 1 HR) in 26 career PAs against Hammel (23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%). Hammel should be a solid pick in this spot, except that we’re not sure how long he will last even if pitching well. Joe Maddon has made it a habit of relieving him early ever since late last year and he was gone after 89 pitches (six innings) despite pitching very well in Arizona his first time out. The Reds have struggled against RHP so far (68 wRC+, 4.8 HR/FB), so perhaps on a night with many good, but flawed pitchers, he’s still one of the stronger options considering Cincinnati has the lowest run projection tonight (3.44 runs) on our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jason Hammel, Joey Votto Iglesias drops in velocity, LaStella in for Soler
Tommy LaStella will bat 6th, moving Jorge Soler out of the lineup against Raisel Iglesias, who was a DFS darling late last year due to a 26.3 K% despite a 4.15 ERA, but there may be some red flags in this one. He’s struck out 12 of his first 49 batters, but his velocity is significantly down (92.1 to 89.6 according to fangraphs). A drop that big might lead to concern about an undisclosed injury. Additionally, the Cubs have been very strong against some very good RHPs early on. The sampe size is still very small, but they have a 15.4 BB%, 33.6 Hard%, and 14.3 HR/FB, leading to a 137 wRC+. Those numbers will regress, but make Iglesias a very risky start with perhaps not as much upside as originally expected. Additionally, he has a 1.37 GB/FB with a 12.9 HR/FB in 107 innings, so don’t sleep on your Chicago power options: Rizzo (146 wRC+, .257 ISO, 34.0 Hard% vs RHP since last season) and Heyward (128 wRC+, .163 ISO, 31.1 Hard% vs RHP) from the left side. Tommy LaStella (120 wRC+ vs RHP) has been formidable as well. Iglesias fares better against RHP (,271 wOBA allowed), but Kris Bryant is a beast (141 wRC+, .216 ISO) vs RHP and a 180 career wRC+ at Wrigley.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Raisel Iglesias Nick Hundley will not start on Thursday, may be available off the bench
There were conflicting reports that suggested Hundley may actually get the start, but it’s Tony Wolters that will draw the nod behind the plate. It’s possible Hundley is available to pinch hit in the later innings, but that’ll be the extent of his involvement.
As reported by: Thomas Harding
Charlie Blackmon to the 15 day DL
Charlie Blackmon has been placed on the 15 day DL due to turf toe according to Rotoworld. That means a new hitter will receive opportunities atop the potent Colorado offense, making that person nearly a must play at home until his price catches up. Hopefully it will be a decent LHB like Parra against RHP, but weaker hitting RHB DJ LeMahieu earns the nod today. Coors field makes even him a must play at home on most occasions.
As reported by: Rotoworld Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu Several unconfirmed reports that Nick Hundley has been added to the Rockies lineup; will continue to update
This situation is still very unclear, but it appears that Nick Hundley may be added to the Rockies lineup. He took a foul tip off the mask yesterday which led to him being checked for a concussion, and Dustin Garneau was called up to act as insurance in the event that Hundley needs to sit for a few days. We’ll continue to update the situation.