DFS Alerts

Projected Top Half of the LIneup for Less Than $2.5K

We’re generally able to find a lot of low priced hitters towards the back of many lineups and occasionally towards the top of the lineup and underpriced when they’re part of a platoon. Daily fantasy players generally don’t find near minimum priced hitters performing well in the top half of the lineup, but that’s what we’re projected to see today in Minnesota. Trevor Larnach costs $2.4K on FanDuel and is even cheaper on DraftKings and while his 125 wRC+ vs RHP comes with just a .125 ISO and .357 BABIP, Statcast does confirm his success with a .385 xwOBA. That’s not a guarantee he’ll continue at this pace, but for this price, how much do you really need? Michael King will be the opposing pitcher and in a sample of 57 innings since last year, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA & xwOBA against him, but LHBs have a .376 xwOBA. Unfortunately, Larnach has been the only above average LHB projected in this lineup, but Alex Krilloff (91 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) may be viable as well with decent lineup soots. The Twins are one of two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.11), the other being the Yankees against J.A. Happ.

An Uncomfortable Pitching Choice on a Difficult Slate

Unfortunately, the only really favorable matchup on a six game Thursday night slate is being offered to Chi Chi Gonzalez in Miami, to which we can easily say no thank you to his 12.3 K%. So, if not the top guys, then who? Three more pitchers appear as if they can be useful on this slate. Facing Scherzer will be Anthony DeSclafani. Ten of the 26 runs he has surrendered came in one outing against the Dodgers, but he’s struck out just 10 of his last 64, starting with that outing and has just a 21.4 K% on the year. With a good chunk of his contact on the ground (49.2%) and decent control (7.4%) with an exit velocity just below 90 mph (89.9), estimators range from a 3.61 xERA to a 4.20 SIERA, all at least a bit above his 3.51 ERA. That’s fine in an SP2 spot behind Scherzer or Rogers for just $6.3K on DraftKings, as the Nationals don’t have an exceptionally high strikeout rate, but just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP. Of course, he has the same weather concerns Scherzer does. Stay tuned for a later forecast update.

Zack Greinke has been a master of contact management (86.8 mph) with a low walk rate (4.9%) and strikeout rate (18.4%) enabling him to consistently pitch deep into games. He’s competed seven innings in four of his last five starts. Even if we buy into the ability to control contact to this extent, his FIP (3.89) and xERA (3.77) are a bit above his 3.38 ERA with additional estimators above four. There’s likely some regression coming, but not enough to make him a below average pitcher yet. The potential for a Quality Start for $8K or less is what makes him slightly attractive on this small slate. While the Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP, that does come with a 25.1 K% and the offense has just an 86 wRC+ over the last seven days.

Frankie Montas may be the most interesting mid-range pitcher. He is something like a league average pitcher by peripherals (16.6 K-BB%), but a bit worse when considering the contact profile (37.9 GB%, 90.7 mph EV, 11% Barrels/BBE). Only his 4.66 DRA is above his 4.52 ERA, which aligns most closely with a 4.42 xERA. The remaining pitchers with a higher strikeout rate than his 22.9% for less than $9K tonight are lefties who have terrible matchups against the Astros and Montas’s own team. Four of nine projected batters for the Royals exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. Kansas City has a 92 wRC+ vs RHP this year. There may be no easy pitching choices if the weather doesn’t hold in Washington and even then, there would likely be ownership concerns. Montas is an uncomfortable choice, but he may be the right one on this particular slate.

Thursday's Top Arm Threated by Rain

Max Scherzer is the only pitcher to eclipse $10K and even reach $11K on both sites. Trevor Rogers exceeds $10K on FanDuel and Hyun-Jin Ryu is just $300 less than that mark on both sites. Nobody else is above $9K on either site on a six game slate. Scherzer has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts with fewer than eight strikeouts just three times this year. Four of his 11 home runs were surrendered in his first start. He has the top strikeout rate on the board (36.1%) by a wide margin and while the 2.22 ERA is a bit below estimators (.240 BABIP, 89.1 LOB%), the absolute worst of them is a 3.06 xFIP. The Giants do have a 105 wRC+ and 16.3 K% vs RHP, but with a 26.8 K% as well. Mad Max is the top pitcher on the board and the largest obstacle might be a haphazard weather forecast that Kevin currently labels Orange/Yellow and the Nationals have been known to be quick with the PPD button, especially rather than having Scherzer start and stop.

Rogers has no such concerns inside the dome in Miami against the Rockies, who have actually been decent against LHP (101 wRC+). Four of eight projected batters tonight are below a 20 K% vs LHP with three at 25% or higher. A 25.4 K% (12.1 SwStr%) over the last month has dropped the season strikeout rate below 30% (29.7%) for Rogers, but that’s still second best on the board and his control has been improving with the walk rate now firmly in single digits (8.8%). A 5.0 HR/FB mark behind 4.2% Barrels/BBE suggests some regression. His 1.97 ERA is a full run below all non-FIP estimators and another a further half run below his contact neutral ones (SIERA, xFIP). Rogers is the leverage play off Scherzer.

Ryu was smoked by the Astros last time out and while he’s not the first lefty that offense has obliterated this year, it does continue a larger pattern of decreased velocity and fewer swings and misses with harder contact since returning from the IL. The only difference is that he actually allowed multiple home runs against Houston for the first time this year with a season high three walks. However, Ryu now has just an 8.2 SwStr% with an 89.8 mph EV and 9.3% Barrels/BBE in six starts off the IL. While the contact profile isn’t far off the league average, it represents a sharp decline for one of the best contact managers in the league over the last several years. He also faces one of the toughest offenses in the league against LHP in Chicago (126 wRC+, 16.3 HR/FB).

Small and Large Sample Decisions to be Made Tonight

There are no fewer than six starters who have made fewer than three starts on a 12 game slate tonight due to either injury or their rookie status, which means you’re making small sample size decisions on one-quarter of tonight’s pitchers. Some of those small sample numbers include a .440 xwOBA for RHBs against Tucker Davidson, a .365 wOBA and .446 xwOBA for RHBs against Braxton Garrett, a .516 wOBA and .442 xwOBA for LHBs against Alek Mantoah and a .345 xwOBA for LHBs against Vladimir Gutierrez. One pitcher who has struggled in a larger sample and pitches in a tough park is Matt Harvey. Sure, some of his recent problems may be BABIP related, but batters from either side of the plate have at least a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. He went just three innings by design last time out, but that does little to discourage with a Baltimore bullpen with a 5.47 ERA over the last 30 days behind him. The Mets are the last of four teams to reach five implied runs tonight (5.02) and their middle of the order bats have been heating up. Pete Alonso (132 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2020) blasted two home runs last night and Dominic Smith (130 wRC+, .218 ISO) leads the projected lineup with a 138 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Billy McKinney (88 wRC+, .204 ISO) may be the value bat here, he has an even 100 wRC+ since joining the team and has shown some surprising power.

A 4.9 SwStr% and 15.3% Barrels/BBE

Brett Anderson has just a 4.9 SwStr% and has allowed 15.3% Barrels/BBE despite a 52.7 GB% because he has a 93.4 mph EV. His contact neutral estimators are in the upper fours, while all others are well above five. His 8.57 xERA is enormous. The Reds have the second highest implied run line on the board against Anderson in Cincinnati (5.23) and it’s easy to see why. While the Reds are likely to come at him with a predominantly right-handed lineup, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Anderson since last season. Not only does Nick Castellanos (145 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP since 2020) grade out as one of the top overall bats on the board at a reasonable price ($4.5K on DraftKings), but he has a .542 xwOBA in 19 PAs against Anderson, which includes a double and home run. Eugenio Suarez (57 wRC+, .220 ISO) has two home runs and a .468 xwOBA in 21 PAs against Anderson. The value bat here is Tyler Stephenson (112 wRC+, .282 ISO), who costs $3.5K on DK and nearly $1K less on FD. Jonathan India has also thrived in the leadoff spot (167 wRC+ last 30 days).

The Bullpen You Want to Attack on Wednesday

There are just three players in the projected lineup for the Brewers above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and nobody exceeding a .180 ISO. Never the less, this may be an interesting spot for Milwaukee bats. The game will take place in one of the most power friendly parks in the league (if not the most power friendly), where they will face Vladimir Gutierrez, who has struck out just six of 40 batters with a 6.3 SwStr% and five walks. Despite striking out 21 of 67 batters at AAA this year, the 25 year-old does not project as a highly valued prospect (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs). While Statcast does agree that he’s shut down RHBs so far (.245 wOBA, .231 xwOBA), it takes significant issue with LHBs having just a .214 wOBA against him. Statcast pushes that mark up to a .345 xwOBA. Daniel Vogelbach (108 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Omar Narvaez (117 wRC+, .165 ISO) each cost just $2.2K on FanDuel and project to hit in the top half of the lineup. Added incentive to attack the Cincinnati pitching staff here is that the bullpen for the Reds owns a major league worst 6.04 ERA over the last 30 days with a 4.89 FIP that’s third worst in baseball over that span. At 4.77 implied runs, the Milwaukee offense borders the line between top and middle of the board.

The Easy SP2 Answer on DraftKings

There’s a good chance many players won’t want to pay up for tonight’s top pitchers, so who are some of the other pitchers on this board in the best spots and are they actually rosterable tonight? The most unusable pitcher in a top spot is Chris Flexen (at Tigers) has exceeded three strikeouts in just two of his last eight starts and has just a 14.5 K% on the year (7.9 SwStr%). An interesting spot is Zach Eflin hosting the Braves. You don’t normally think of them as high upside for pitchers, but five of eight projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Eflin is also one of three pitchers on the board (Cole, Waiwright) averaging at least six innings per start. The concerns are that the Braves are also a dangerous offense in a dangerous park and Eflin has just a 9.8 SwStr%. He costs less than $9K though.

Patrick Corbin is the close your eyes and click option. He saw his velocity climb about a month ago, but it’s been slowly sliding back downward and so are the results. He’s allowed 15 runs over his last 21 innings with just 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He’s also in Tampa Bay (92 wRC+, 29.6 K% vs LHP) and costs less than $7.5K. The opposing pitcher in this matchup is intriguing. Shane McClanahan has had some issues with elevated contact (92.3 mph EV, 9.0% Barrels/BBE, 17.4 HR/FB), so he prefers not to allow much of it (30.4 K%, 18.1 SwStr%). Due to the elevated home run rate and a .338 BABIP, his 4.11 ERA is well above most estimators, though an exact copy of his 4.11 DRA. The Nationals have a 107 wRC+ vs LHP with four of eight projected batters below a 17 K% against lefties since last year, so this is not a great spot and McClanahan hasn’t exceeded 80 pitches in a start yet, but he has at least six strikeouts in three of his last four.

Dropping a little lower on the board, the answer to the DraftKings SP2 question is very simple. Austin Gomber costs just $6K (he’s $3.5K more on FanDuel). Gomber had a 3.9 K-BB% through his first five starts with an 89 mph EV. He was happy to see April end. Since the start of May, he has struck out 43 and walked just four over 40.1 innings with an8 7.4 mph EV and above average ground ball rate (45.9 GB%). The .240 BABIP over this span may merit some regression, but even his FIP with an 18.4 HR/FB since the start of May is just 3.64. He also gets a massive park upgrade with a trip to Miami. The Marlins have an 88 wRC+ and 21.1 K-BB% vs LHP this year. Four of the first six batters in the projected lineup for Miami exceed a 26 K% vs LHP since 2020. Gomber is your easy SP2 on DraftKings on a night where your SP1 decision is going to be very difficult.

Here's the Spin on Tonight's Top Pitchers

Just two $10K pitchers on a 12 game slate with both Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn reaching that price point on both sites. Cole, along with Adam Wainwright and Zach Eflin are the only pitchers on the board averaging more than six innings per start, though Lynn and Casey Mize are fairly close. Lynn hasn’t been the workhorse he’s been in recent seasons, but the peripherals are similar (26.8 K%, 7.2 BB%). A 6.8 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, especially considering his 9.2% Barrels/BBE, yet despite that and just a 30.9 GB%, he has a 2.64 xERA that’s even lower than his 3.02 FIP with additional estimators closer to four. He’s in a very tough spot. The Blue Jays have a 111 wRC+ with a 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Six of nine batters in the projected lineup for Toronto are below a 21 K% vs RHP since last season. He’s a tough pay up in this matchup.

Cole will be spinning it against the Twins. Poor choice of words? Not nearly as bad as the spin Cole put on the answer to a question about whether he used Spider Tack yesterday. It’s well known that he was among a number of pitchers whose spin rates dropped after MLB announced new protocols governing the mishandling of baseballs by pitchers. What does all this mean for daily fantasy players? If it means his ownership is going to tank, there’s some value in using him as a leverage play. He’s not going to suddenly be terrible, but the worst case scenario (for DFS anyway) is that he’s a bit over-priced until things even out. He did match his season 15.2 SwStr% in his last start (against the Rays), allowing only seven base runners over his five innings, despite the five runs. The Twins have a 104 wRC+ and 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP. However, seven of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 24.5 K% vs RHP since last season. This may be a high upside spot and we’ve seen that Cole can still miss bats with a bit less spin. The only actionable advice that seems reasonable is to look at ownership projections this evening and do the opposite.

Smash Spot for Right-Handed Power

When the Philadelphia lineup is at full strength, as projected to be tonight, the first seven batters all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs LHP since 2020. The park may help boost some of their stats, but that’s still pretty strong and also where they are playing tonight. As his velocity and strikeout rate (21.1%, 11.2 SwStr%) have dropped this year, the damage done to Drew Smyly, an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.9 GB%) has increased (22.2 HR/FB, 12.5% Barrels/BBE, 91.1 mph EV, 5.97 xERA). Even if you remove the contact profile, which may not be the correct thing to do with Smyly at this point, and project based mostly on peripherals, a 4.47 SIERA is his only estimator that isn’t well above four and a half. Even adding back in last year’s strong two month stretch, RHBs have a .331 wOBA (.353 xwOBA) against him. This is a great spot for Phillies’ bats and only the Astros, facing Martin Perez at Fenway, have a higher implied run line. Andrew McCutchen (164 wRC+, .301 ISO) and Rhys Hoskins (198 wRC+, .327 ISO) have destroyed LHP since last year, as has J.T. Realmuto (162 wRC+, .173 ISO) with a bit less power.

Top of the Order Middle Infield Value

Jon Duplantier has done nothing to impress in two starts. He’s struck out just eight of 44 batters with a 6.8 SwStr%, five walks, and four home runs against below average offenses (Brewers, Cardinals). He has a 9.2 K-BB% in 45.1 major league innings in which batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA against him. With a below average bullpen backing him, this should be a favorable spot for a well-balanced Oakland lineup. Aside from the continued breakout of Mark Canha (130 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2020), who has a 166 wRC+ over the last 30 days, Tony Kemp (123 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020, 186 wRC+ last 30 day) could be one of the top values on the board for $2.7K or less on either site in his new home in the two hole. Sean Murphy (131 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is one of several strong catching options tonight and Seth Brown (84 wRC+, .220 ISO) costs $3.1K or less on either site as well.

This Offense is Mashing Even Without Their Top Bat

No Mike Trout, no problem, seems to be what the Angels are saying. The offense is carrying a team 126 wRC+ over the last week and they have done some serious damage to LHP, especially at home. They have a 17.2 HR/FB vs southpaws and 19.1 HR/FB at home this season. Projected to bat fifth, one of the top values on the board might be Max Stassi (although, it might be hard to get past James McCann for just $2.7K on FanDuel), who has pummeled LHP for a 161 wRC+ and .351 ISO in an admittedly small sample of 65 PAs against them since last year, but that should be good enough at a price tag of $2.6K or less against a pitcher whom RHBs have a .323 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against since last year as well. Stassi also has a 312 wRC+ overall since returning from the IL. Justin Upton (134 wRC+, .316 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (128 wRC+, .208 ISO) are also reasonably priced bats (under $4.5K on DraftKIngs, $4K on FanDuel), who have had success against LHP, enabling players to build a fairly inexpensive stack and still have funds left over to pay for pitching. The Angels have a 4.71 implied run line that finds them closer to the middle of the board than the top.

Don't Let This Pitcher Go Under the Radar on Tuesday

Chris Bassitt costs $9.7K on FanDuel, a price tag that makes him just the sixth most expensive pitcher on that site and seventh on DraftKings ($8.8K). While the Diamondbacks don’t offer a ton of upside from a strikeout standpoint (only one of nine projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020), they do offer a great run prevention spot for Bassitt in a pitcher’s park (83 wRC+ vs RHP). He allowed more than two runs for just the second time since his second start last time out against the Mariners, failing to complete five innings for just the first time this season, but still struck out six with one walk over his four innings (four runs). He’s running a 26.5 K% (11.4 SwStr%) and 20.9 K-BB% well above his career rates, combined with quality contact management (87.8 mph EV, 6.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators that don’t include his home run rate or contact profile matchup closely to his 3.53 ERA, but the FIP and xERA are both around three. Bassitt may not be the top pitcher on the board or in the highest upside spot, but he’s fairly close to both and shouldn’t be overlooked for players looking for an alternative to the pitchers in either of those two groups.

The Ball Should Be Flying Out of This Park Tonight

Coors is not on the daily fantasy menu tonight, but considering weather conditions, some east coast parks could play like Coors tonight and the most enticing spot might be in Baltimore. The Mets and Orioles are both tied at eighth on the board with 4.75 implied runs, but in addition to a power friendly park under favorable hitting conditions, both southpaw starters in this game exceed a 20 HR/FB and 10% Barrels/BBE this year. There are only two LHBs projected in either lineup tonight (both for the Mets) and while RHBs have a .322 wOBA (.349 xwOBA) against David Peterson in his career, batters from either side exceed a .365 wOBA against Bruce Zimmermann. Under these conditions, if they’re in the lineup, they’re probably playable. Trey Mancini (179 wRC+, .319 ISO vs LHP this year), James McCann (197 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Pete Alonso (94 wRC+, .214 ISO) are some of the top overall bats on the slate and great candidates for the Tuesday FanDuel Sportsbook Home Run Promo where available. The Orioles have an outrageous team 124 wRC+ vs LHP this year. The Mets do have a capable bullpen full of right-handed power arms, should Peterson get knocked out early again though.

This Bullpen Needs a Map to Home Plate

If we add up team bullpen ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last month and then divide by four, the St Louis Cardinals are the only relief corps that averages five and they do that exactly on the nose because they can’t find the plate (14.8 BB%). This is a bullpen you want to stack against and Carlos Martinez’s presence to start the game does nothing to change that thought process. After being pummeled for 10 runs last time out with four walks and just one strikeout, he now has a 5.93 ERA with all non-FIP estimators above five. With a 49.4 GB%, he’s allowed just a single home run over his last eight starts, but has just a 13.3 K% and 89.9 mph EV. Again, this is a spot that screams stack and will likely be an undervalued spot because the Cleveland offense isn’t very good (86 wRC+ vs RHP). At 3.93 implied runs, Cleveland is closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but they are also very cheap, aside from Jose Ramirez (138 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2020). Cesar Hernandez (97 wRC+) is also a bit costly on DraftKings ($4.8K), but no other batter in the projected lineup exceeds $3.5K on DK or $3K on FD.

While the Reds and Rockies both average out to 4.98 over the last 30 days by the same method, issues with attacking those bullpens include matchups that would entail utilizing poor Miami bats against the ground ball oriented Antonio Senzatela in a negative run environment and Milwaukee bats in a great park, but against Sonny Gray in Cincinnati. That said, Sonny Gray has allowed five home runs at home this year with the lowest ground ball rate of his career (45.5%) and Christian Yelich is beginning to heat up (105 wRC+ last 30 days), while additional Milwaukee batters are very cheap. Among those projected though, only Tyrone Taylor (.233 ISO) exceeds a .185 ISO vs RHP since 2020 in a very small sample.

Lots of Low & Mid Range Pitching Value in Favorable Matchups

It would be space and time consuming to cover all of the marginally priced pitchers in high upside matchups on a full slate, especially considering that many of them serve low strikeout pitchers, but here is a look at some of the more playable arms in favorable spots on Tuesday night. While we generally don’t think of the Braves as offering high upside, they do have a 25.2 K% vs RHP. Aaron Nola’s price tag has dropped because he has a 26.7 K% himself, which is fine, but not elite. He also pitches in a tough park in Philly, but at just $8.3K on FanDuel, offers enough of a shot at a Quality Start to be a decent alternative to pitchers costing around $2K more tonight.

Alex Wood saw his velocity drop last time out and was pounded by the Angels for seven runs over 3.2 innings, walking four of 19 batters, striking out just two. He’s otherwise having a fantastic season, striking out a quarter of batters faced (24.9%, 12.9 SwStr%) with 56.2% of his contact on the ground and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are all within half a run of his 3.48 ERA. Three of the first six batters projected in the Texas lineup tonight are above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2020 and the entire offense has just a 56 wRC+ over the last week. Wood costs less than $9K on either site. On the other side of that game, the San Francisco lineup is slightly banged up and only two of nine projected betters are below a 22.6 K% vs RHP since 2020. Jordan Lyles is highly erratic, but does cost just $5.3K on DraftKings with five starts of at least six Ks with three runs or less.

Marco Gonzales is in Detroit (75 wRC+, 30.6 K% vs LHP. His season numbers are awful, but he did return from the IL to strike out six of 15 A’s with an 86.3 mph EV. If early season woes were due to injury, he would be undervalued at less than $8K. His opponent, Matthew Boyd, costs just $6.5K on DraftKings. Boyd has just a 19.5 K% this year, but 22.1% with an 11.2 SwStr% over the last month, which is just below league average. Four projected Mariners exceed a 31 K% vs LHP since 2020. The Yankees have a 95 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP. If it’s time to think of them offering high upside, especially on the road in Minnesota, Michael Pineda (25 K%) has a 13.6 SwStr% over the last month and costs just $7K on FanDuel, but rarely goes through the lineup much more than twice. Pablo Lopez ($8.7K) has huge home/road splits and a great matchup in Miami (Rockies 57 wRC+ on the road, 69 wRC+ vs RHP). Four of eight projected Colorado bats have at least a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020. Sonny Gray is $8.4K or less and gets the Brewers (81 wRC+, 26 K% vs RHP). The concern here is that Gray has a career low 45.5 GB% and has allowed five of his eight home runs (21.1 HR/FB) at home, but his 29.4 K% should soften the blow here.