DFS Alerts

Great Matchup or Favorable Parks?

One pitcher reaches the $10K price point tonight on a full slate and Trevor Rogers costs exactly that much on both sites. The leading Rookie of the Year candidate has a 29.8 K% with a 3.76 DRA his only estimator above three and a half. He’s in a tough spot tonight, as the Cardinals have a 120 wRC+ and 11.6 K-BB% vs LHP. Julio Urias is the second most expensive pitcher at $9.6K on either site. Both his strikeout (27.6%) and walk rates (3.6%) are career bests, which is allowing him to go deeper in games without really increasing his pitch count. He’s gone beyond 90 pitches just twice, but has seven quality starts. He also continues to be a strong contact manager. His 86.8 mph EV is actually above his career average (86.1). The Phillies have a 102 wRC+ and 14.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but offer a bit more upside with a 27.6 K% against southpaws as well. However, tonight’s particular projected lineup includes just one of seven batters with more than six PAs against LHP since last year and a strikeout rate above 25%.

A date with Coors has dropped Yu Darvish’s cost below $9.5K on either site, but with the highest strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and facing an offense with just a 68 wRC+ and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP, the park is not enough of an obstacle to keep Darvish in consideration for tonight’s top overall arm on this slate. Four of eight projected Colorado starters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020. These three appear to run very closely with Rogers and Urias having tougher matchups in favorable parks, but Darvish having an extremely favorable matchup in the worst park. The lowest price tag may make Darvish the best value here.

Injuries May Be Derailing These Pitchers' Seasons

The top pitching matchup takes place in Chicago between Tyler Glasnow and Lance Lynn tonight, but the most interesting one from a daily fantasy perspective may be in Seattle where Kenta Maeda faces off against Marco Gonzales. Both have been quality pitchers for years, Maeda even a Cy Young candidate last year, but both have struggled mightily and spent some time on the IL. For Maeda, tonight is his first start back and he’s carrying just a 20.5 K% and 90.5 mph EV through nine starts. If you’re looking for a LHB to take advantage of his 2021 woes (.363 wOBA, .242 ISO vs Maeda this year), both Kyle Seager (117 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Jake Fraley (162 wRC+, .286 ISO) are fairly cheap.

The good feelings from Marco Gonzales’s strong IL return effort against the A’s (struck out six of 15 batters over four innings with one run) quickly went out the window when the Tigers got him for four runs over four innings with just two strikeouts (17 BF). In seven starts, Gonzales has just an 11.7 K-BB% with nearly as many line drives (27.8%) as ground balls (30.6%) and 15.7% Barrels/BBE. His xERA is a hefty 7.78. RHBs have a .408 wOBA and .323 ISO against him this year. Even at an elevated price, ALL the Nelson Cruz (221 wRC+, .327 ISO vs LHP since 2020) please with a side of Josh Donaldson (140 wRC+, .233 ISO). The latter actually costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Another pitcher who was good last year and started the year strongly, but has some injury speculation with just 15.6% over his last five starts is Dylan Bundy. He’s also allowed eight home runs with a 38.4 GB% and 92.3 mph EV over this span. Not only are the eight home runs evenly split, but both RHBs and LHBs have a .445 wOBA against him over his last five starts. While this is a spot for both Mark Canha (129 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Matt Olson (134 wRC+, .265 ISO) to potentially thrive, both Sean Murphy (126 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (123 wRC+, .230 ISO ) are much cheaper.

This Lineup May Be Better Against LHP Than You Think

The Pirates have just a 77 wRC+ vs LHP this year and they’re 4.08 implied run line puts them much closer to the bottom of the board than the top, so why are we even talking about them here? Jon Lester. That’s why. While he has allowed exactly a single run in three straight outings, Lester’s only gone beyond the fourth inning in one of them, striking out just nine of 60 with six walks. On the season, he’s limiting hard contact well enough (87.2 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), which draws his 4.24 xERA most closely in line with a 4.19 ERA, but with a 6.6 K-BB%, additional estimators are around five or higher. The unexpected thing here though, is that just two batters in the projected Pittsburgh lineup (Phillip Evans & Kevin Newman) are below a 100 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. While Bryan Reynolds (136 wRC+, .211 ISO), Jacob Stallings (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Erik Gonzalez (122 wRC+, .208 ISO) have all been good and are at worst reasonably priced and at best nearly free, Ke’Bryan Hayes (264 wRC+, .406 ISO) is the star of the show here. Even if those numbers aren’t sustainable, he has a 152 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is not too expensive himself. In fact, Hayes may be one of the top bats on the board outside Coors tonight. Lester likely gets about two trips through the order, so we’ll be seeing a lot of the Washington bullpen. While they’ve been fine this year, this isn’t a deal breaker (4.28 ERA, 3.73 FIP last 30 days).

Heat and an Unsustainably Low HR Rate Improve This Offense's Outlook

If you’re of the mind that a 6.8 HR/FB simply isn’t sustainable, then the Royals offer a nice daily fantasy spot against Matt Body tonight. Boyd has been able to keep his ERA below four (3.56), despite a strikeout rate below 20% and just a 12.2 K-BB%, due to that home run rate. An 88 mph EV and 7.7% Barrels/BBE push the xERA up to 3.93. Additional non-FIP estimators are all above four and a half. Boyd also has an extensive history with the many of the batters in this lineup. Whit Merrifield hasn’t homered against him in 60 PAs, but does have nine doubles and a triple with a .383 xwOBA and just six strikeouts. Hunter Dozier has three doubles and two home runs against Boyd in 29 PAs (.393 xwOBA). Salvador Perez has just a .294 xwOBA in 47 PAs, but with two home runs. He has also otherwise smashed LHP this season (160 wRC+, .359 ISO). The thing that makes Perez most attractive here is his $3K price tag on FanDuel. With temperatures expected to be around 90 degrees in Kansas City tonight, the Royals have the fourth highest implied run line on the slate and second highest outside Coors at 5.13.

A 27.3 K% vs RHP Makes Marginal Pitching Rosterable

When we talk about high upside pitching spots on tonight’s board we have to start with the Detroit Tigers. They have an 87 wRC+ and 27.3 K% vs RHP this year and if you take a look at Plate IQ, you will notice the last six projected batters all exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since last season. Brad Keller has been more of a near average pitcher since the calendar hit May (4.40 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 3.94 xFIP), but his exit velocity has actually increased since then (93.3 mph) and he’s still generating less than half his contact on the ground (47%). The biggest change is that his K-BB% increased 10 points from 2.1%. That’ll play in this spot, especially as an SP2 for $6.4K on DraftKings.

Adam Wainwright has just an 18.8 K% and 5.6 SwStr% since May started (seven starts). On a positive note, he’s been able to push deep into games due to 6.2 BB% and .266 BABIP. He has four starts with at least seven innings and six strikeouts. He may be more viable on FanDuel for $800 less than DraftKings in a home matchup against the Marlins (25.7 K% vs RHP) with four projected batters above a 30 K% vs RHP since last year. We’re going to mention Austin Gomber here because the Padres have just an 86 wRC+ and 10.2 HR/FB vs LHP and has struggled to an 81 wRC+ with a 32.1 K% over the last week. Three batters in the projected San Diego lineup exceed a 30 K% vs LHP since last season. Gomber isn’t making Colorado fans forget about Nolan Arenado, but he may be helping soften the blow. He walked 23 of 103 to start the season, but since then has walked just four of 179 batters, while striking out 26.8% with just an 87 mph EV. Over this span, he has a 2.58 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. You’re certainly not playing him at Coors for $9.5K in this spot (FD), but maybe for just $7K.

The Cubs have a 26.2 K% vs LHP and David Peterson has a 25.5 K% and 51.9 GB%. He also has double digit walk (10.1%) and barrel (11.5%) rates in a game with the most weather concern on the slate. The Mariners (26 K%) go to Kenta Maeda, fresh off the IL with just a 20.5 K% and 90.5 mph EV through nine starts. His best season estimator is a 4.03 xFIP. Add in the contact profile and his xERA shoots up to 4.89, which is still lower than his 5.27 ERA (21.4 HR/FB, .336 ERA). If you think he’s healthy, he may be a steal for less than $7.5K. He could also continue to be a disaster. The Giants have a 26.9 K% vs RHP, but also a 100 wRC+ and 15.3 HR/FB, while Matt Peacock has struck out three with seven walks over his last two starts. While more than 60% of his contact has been on the ground, it’s with a 90 mph EV. He does cost just $5.3K on DraftKings if you absolutely need to punt. Lastly, the Brewers have an 83 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Vladimir Gutierrez is within $100 of S7K on either site, but hasn’t done much to show us he’s worth even that, striking out just 13 of 71 batters with eight walks over three starts.

Clear Top Pitching Choice on Monday Night

There are three pitchers reaching $9.9K or more on both sites and one very clear choice for top arm on Monday. That would be Tyler Glasnow, who is only the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. Over his first three starts, Gasnow struck out 29 of 68 batters with three walks and no home runs. Over his next seven starts, he walked four batters three times and allowed multiple home runs four times. Glasnow seems to be back to dominating again, striking out 30 of his last 82 with five walks and one home run as he’s pushed his slider usage above 35% for the first three times. He carries the only strikeout rate above 30% on the board (36.1%). Even with a 91.9 mph EV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, his ERA and all estimators remain below three. The White Sox have a 107 wRC+ and 12.2 K-BB% vs RHP, but Glasnow is the top talent on the board by a mile.

The second best pitcher on the board, and most expensive on FanDuel, is the man Glasnow is facing, Lance Lynn. Six of the nine batters in the projected Rays’ lineup have a strikeout rate above 26% vs RHP since 2020. The Rays also have a 109 wRC+ and 10.6 BB% vs RHP this year. Lynn has gone beyond six innings just three times this year, but twice in his last five starts. The 1.23 ERA is not sustainable (.213 BABIP, 90.9 LOB%, 7.6 HR/FB) and driving up his daily fantasy price, but there are no complaints about a 21.2 K-BB% with an average contact profile. His estimators are all below four with his FIP and xERA below three. The price tag is the issue here with an ERA two runs below estimators.

Sean Manaea has been pretty good overall, but also fairly erratic from start to start. He’s struck out more than six five times, but fewer than five five times as well. He has a 9.3 HR/FB (3.18 FIP) and 6.4% Barrels/BBE (3.77 xERA), though the 41.6 GB% and 89.4 mph EV aren’t any better than average. Estimators are all above his 3.09 ERA, but just his DRA (4.89 DRA) is above four. The Angels have a 110 wRC+ and 22 K% vs LHP and 147 wRC+ (10.9 K-BB%, 17.9 HR/FB) last seven days. If you’re paying up for pitching tonight, Glasnow is the clear choice. Lynn is fine for $9.9K on DraftKings, even if not a great bargain. Manaea is just too expensive in this spot.

The Right Spot and the Right Price Increases This Lineup's Outlook

Through two starts, Chase De Jong has struck out 10 of 43 with just a 7.8 SwStr% and 92.2 mph EV against the Rockies and Marlins, allowing three home runs last time out. In 64.1 career innings, he has just a 5.5 K-BB% with 14 home runs allowed. RHBs have actually hit more of those home runs (nine) with a .393 wOBA in fewer PAs (135), though RHBs haven’t done too bad either (.355 wOBA, five home runs, 154 PAs). That increases our interest in Milwaukee bats, who are clustered in that next group of four or five teams just below the four teams implied for more than five runs tonight. Luis Urias may be the value bat here. He has just an 84 wRC+ and .130 ISO vs RHP since last year, but has recently been moved into the leadoff spot with Kolten Wong hitting the IL and has a 131 wRC+ over the last month. Then, from the left side, Daniel Vogelbach has been hitting behind him and supplying the power (110 wRC+, .192 ISO). He has a 137 wRC+ over the last 30 days and carries a very similar price tag. The Milwaukee offense hasn’t been very good this year (81 wRC+ vs RHP), but in the right place and at the right price, they can have some daily fantasy relevance and this has the potential to be such a spot.

This Lineup May Be Better Than You Think Against RHP

Pitching is expensive tonight, at least most of the usable arms, so players are going to want to scatter some cheaper batters into their lineups tonight and one of the places they should be able to do that is in Cleveland. The home team has one of the higher implied run lines on the slate with the visiting team more in the middle of the board at 3.89, but the majority of this lineup is very cheap and includes five batters above a 115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 and four batters above a .200 ISO. Meanwhile, LHBs have a solid, if not overwhelming .314 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against Aaron Civale since last year, while RHBs aren’t any worse (.331 wOBA, .317 ISO). Mitch Haniger (129 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is the expensive bat in the lineup with Kyle Seager (118 wRC+, .218 ISO) much more moderately priced. Taylor Trammell (128 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Jake Fraley (156 wRC+, ,217 ISO) cost less than $3K on either site.

Line Makers Not Fooled by Pitcher's Low ERA

Justin Dunn makes his return to the mound after a short IL stint and that may be better news for the opposing offense than for his own team. A 14.1 BB% has been shadowed by a .196 BABIP, 82 LOB% and 8.0 HR/FB. All estimators are more than a run above his 3.18 ERA with a 4.42 xERA being closest. His SIERA and xFIP exceed five. The expected punishment may have not come to fruition against Dunn yet, but even the lines makers are expecting it because Cleveland has the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.11). Dunn has a wide platoon split since last year with LHBs owning a .332 wOBA, but a more than 50 point higher .386 xwOBA against him. Unfortunately, the Cleveland offense doesn’t carry many good LHBs, but Jose Ramirez (139 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. In addition to his success against RHP since last year, he’s been even better at home (155 wRC+, .319 ISO). Eddie Rosario (109 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Cesar Hernandez (98 wRC+ vs RHP) should also have some value in this spot.

Stack the Top Outfield with Plenty of Cap Space

Once upon a time Matt Shoemaker was a respectable starting pitcher, but Jose Altuve didn’t care. He’s homered three times in 32 career PAs against him with a .467 xWOBA. Now, everyone is enjoying a similar level of success against him with a 12.5 K% and an ERA plus estimators all above five. Not only do the Astros have the highest implied run line on the slate (6.14), but they do so by more than half a run. While RHBs do well enough against Shoemaker since last season (.330 wOBA, .333 xwOBA), LHBs have destroyed him (.368 wOBA, .385 ISO). Surprisingly, the three LHBs expected to appear in the Houston lineup are all reasonably priced ($4.2K or less). Each of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley exceed a 140 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 with only Brantley (.171 ISO) below a .230 ISO as well. Players can easily stack their outfield full of Houston bats (especially on DraftKings) with room left over for one of tonight’s high end pitchers.

Update: With RHP Bailey Ober now starting in place of Shoemaker, the thought process doesn’t change much. LH Houston outfielders are still underpriced.

Starter Can't Throw Strikes and Bullpen Not Much Better

By combined ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP, two of the worst three bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days are in the same park tonight and the other is not even on the slate. That park would be located in Cincinnati. The Rockies are a lost cause, especially on the road against a quality pitcher (Tyler Mahle). The Reds, however, have the second highest implied run line on the board (5.41). Kyle Freeland has struck out just seven and walked eight of 63 batters with 50% of his contact on the ground and an 87.4 mph EV. He did allow all four of his barrels in his last start against the A’s with two of them leaving the yard and had previously faced the Pirates and depleted Mets in pitcher friendly parks. Since last season, RHBs are within a point of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, according to Statcast, while LHBs have done even better (.397 wOBA, .368 xwOBA). Considering the peripherals, this is certainly a stacking situation and while the Reds are likely to lineup predominantly right-handed, Jesse Winker (114 wRC+ vs LHP since 2020) should remain part of those stacks, although he is easily the most expensive bat in the lineup. Nick Castellanos (148 wRC+, .284 ISO) is the most accomplished bat in the lineup, while Tyler Stephenson (129 wRC+, .302 ISO) is one of the top value bats on the slate. Freeland should run his pitch count up fairly quickly with an inability to find the plate and things shouldn’t improve much when a bullpen with a 5.70 ERA and 4.70 FIP takes over.

A 13.4 SwStr%, 53.7 GB% and Room to Grow

Interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots include Charlie Morton (at Marlins), Keegan Akin (at Rays), Sandy Alcantara (vs Braves) and Tyler Mahle (vs Rockies). Morton is still feeling the effects of a 63.3 LOB%, which has kept his ERA above four (4.21) despite a 27.2 K% and just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. However, while most of his estimators are below four, his 4.15 xERA is most in line with actual results, though the reason is not immediately clear. He does have a 17.9 HR/FB, but nearly half his contact has been on the ground (49.1%) and his FIP is just 3.64. The Marlins have a 25.8 K% vs RHP and four projected batters exceed a 30 K% vs RHP since last year. Morton costs just $7.5K on DraftKings. Akin has struck out eight of 40 (10.6 SwStr%) with three walks and a home run in his two starts against the White Sox and Indians. A 19.6 K-BB% in 45.2 major league innings is fairly impressive, even if some of it was done in relief. More interesting is that he costs he’s the cheapest arm on DraftKings ($5K) and five of nine projected for the Rays exceed a 28 K% vs LHP since 2020.

While the strikeout rate has been dipping and is now down to a league average 23.3%, Sandy Alcantara still has a 13.4 SwStr% that creates optimism that he’s still capable of more. Combine this with a 53.7 GB% and just 3.7% Barrels/BBE and Statcast generates a 2.92 xERA, though all other estimators are between a quarter run to half run above his 3.30 ERA. While the Braves have a 102 wRC+ vs RHP, five of eight projected batters are above a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Alcantara is the most expensive pitcher in this group, exactly $9K on either site.

After a three game stretch where Tyler Mahle struck out eight of 63 batters, he’s struck out 16 of his last 44 batters Since his first start (two home runs), he had one other start where he allowed three home runs and only two other home runs this season. That would be fairly impressive, considering his home park, but he’s pitched just four games there this season, including the two where he allowed multiple homers.. His 20.3 K-BB% is 23rd among qualified pitchers and every single one of his estimators is within one-third of a run of his 3.32 ERA. Mahle costs $8.5K or less. The Rockies have a 58 wRC+ on the road and 67 wRC+ vs RHP. Four of eight projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. However, in addition to the ballpark, an atrocious defense could be a further Mahle drawback. He’s also completed six innings just three times this year, but has also completed seven innings twice in the last month. Any of these four would make solid SP2 complements on DraftKings with Alcantara being most capable of standing on his own with the heaviest workload and Quality Start potential.

The Friday Slate is Loaded with Top Pitchers

All four pitchers who breach the $10K price point do so on both sites with Clayton Kershaw missing by just $200 on either site. Jacob deGrom tops the board, league and universe in just about every important category, including a 45.4 K% and 21.2 SwStr%. All of his estimators are below two! He has a 75.5 Z-Contact%, 17.9 IFFB% and 86.8 mph EV. The only legitimate complaint might be workload as he hasn’t exceeded 85 pitches since returning from the IL. However, those 85 pitchers were enough to go three times through the order in seven innings against these same Padres last time out.

Max Scherzer is more expensive than deGrom on DraftKings. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts with fewer than eight strikeouts just three times this year. Four of his 11 home runs were surrendered in his first start. He has the second best strikeout rate on the board (36.1%) and while the 2.22 ERA is a bit below estimators (.240 BABIP, 89.1 LOB%), the absolute worst of them is a 3.06 xFIP. The Giants do have a 105 wRC+ and 16.3 K% vs RHP, but with a 26.8 K% as well. Like last night though, weather is an issue and we’ve seen how quickly the Nationals mash the PPD button rather than mess with a Scherzer start.

Lucas Giolito is still prone to the occasional clunker, but has struck out at least seven in nine of 12 starts, maintaining a 30.4% season rate. While his 3.88 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, it’s above all of his non-FIP ones. There’s a chance for further improvement here, despite the double digit barrel rate (10.3%). The Tigers have an 89 wRC+ and 27.1 K% vs RHP. Brandon Woodruff gets a great matchup against the Pirates (83 wRC+ vs RHP), although just two batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% and he’s just $200 cheaper on FanDuel. A 1.42 ERA is well below all estimators, but a 32.5 K%, 87 mph EV and 4.7% Barrels/BBE present a 2.42 xERA that’s only a run higher. He snapped a streak of 11 consecutive Quality Starts last time out.

Kershaw is in an interesting spot, as he gets the Rangers at home, but without the DH, there are only three batters projected in the Texas lineup above a 27 K% vs LHP with the other five below 20%. Kershaw was also on the list of spin rate decliners last week, while his velocity has been down since the end of April. He’s allowed five runs in three of his last five starts, but has nine and 11 strikeouts in two of those outings. The strikeout rate is actually up over the last 30 days (31.3%, 16.2 SwStr%) and he has just a 4.6 BB%, allowing 6% Barrels/BBE on the season. A 3.50 DRA is his worst estimator by more than a quarter of a run. The spin rate stuff shouldn’t have enough of an impact to not make Kershaw a decent value at his cost tonight. Considering everything, Giolito may be the most intriguing deGrom alternative, as he’s cheaper than Woodruff on either site without weather concerns.

A Nearly .400 xwOBA vs RHBs Gives an Unexpected Offense a Boost

While the Marlins have one of the worst offenses on the board vs RHP (91 wRC+), their 4.5 implied run line is actually tied for third highest on the board tonight and the reason for that is named Chi Chi Gonzalez. Not only does Gonzalez have just a 12.3 K%, but batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last year. In fact, RHBs actually have an xwOBA nearing .400 (.394), which somewhat favors a predominantly RH lineup for the Marlins and some of those RHBs haven’t been terrible against RHP since 2020 either. Particularly, Starling Marte (129 wRC+, .185 ISO), Jesus Aguilar (119 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Adam Duvall (103 wRC+, .244 ISO) are batters players might be interested in. Unfortunately, Miami bats aren’t as cheap as you’d expect, especially on DraftKings, but that could help even more from an ownership standpoint, especially for players fading Scherzer tonight due to weather concerns.

Large Platoon Split Keeps This Pitcher From Being More

Anthony DeSclafani is essentially a league average pitcher and one thing that keeps him from being more is a substantial platoon split. With LHBs owning a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him and RHBs below .290, this is a spot where we can justify exposure to both sides of this matchup with DeSclafani costing just $6.3K on DraftKIngs. Juan Soto (168 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2020) might be the top overall bat on the board tonight. He’s starting to heat up and has a 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. The Nationals don’t have another LHB above a 100 wRC+ projected in their lineup tonight. In fact, Trea Turner (125 wRC+, .188 ISO) has been the only other above average hitter at all, but Kyle Schwarber (94 wRC+, .227 ISO) does have power and has seen the leadoff spots against RHP a few times recently. The Nationals find themselves at the middle of the board with 4.27 implied runs tonight and there are some weather concerns for this game, so keep an eye on Kevin’s updated forecast later this afternoon.