DFS Alerts

Tough to Separate Top of the Board Pitching on Tuesdaay

A full 30 pitcher board on Tuesday night sees five pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site with Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow the only pitchers reaching that price tag on both sites (both reach $11K on FanDuel). It’s fair to call them the top two overall pitchers on the board without much separation tonight. While Glasnow is assured of a controlled, negative run environment in the dome against the Nationals (87 wRC+ vs RHP), five of nine projected Washington batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Bieber travels to St Louis, a generally power suppressing park, though it can play a bit more hitter friendly in the hotter months, so check the forecast and Weather Edge for updates. The Cardinals also have an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but with only three projected batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020. Conveniently, both pitchers own a 35.6 K%, tied for second on the board, and both consistently pitch deep into games, almost three full trips through the lineup on average. If you’re looking for reasons to fade or drop underweight, according to their ownership projections, both pitchers have experienced reduced velocity (Bieber since last season, Glasnow since the beginning of this season) with hard contact issues when contact is made (Bieber 9.4% Barrels/BBE, Glasnow 9.6%).

The remaining three pitchers to meet or exceed $10K on FanDuel include Walker Buehler, Carlos Rodon and Framber Valdez. Buehler’s strength has been pitching deep into games this year, at least six innings in all 11 outings with nine Quality Starts. He also gets the Pirates (83 wRC+) with four of eight projected batters owning a 25 K% or higher vs RHP since 2020. The negatives are that the strikeout rate is not elite (25.7%), while he’s had contact issues too (9.6% Barrels/BBE) with reduced velocity as well. His 2.82 ERA is the results of a .243 BABIP and 85.6 LOB%. All of his estimators remain below four though. After easing his way back in against the Padres, Valdez struck out 10 of 28 Red Sox with 13 of 16 batted balls on the ground last time out. Perhaps that performance elevated his price tag too much. We can’t expect a repeat performance at Fenway tonight. There are five projected batters in the Boston lineup above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020, but they do have a 108 wRC+ at home and 102 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Valdez is more of an option on DraftKings ($8.6K), especially if J.D. Martinez remains out.

The highest strikeout rate on the board belongs to Carlos Rodon ((37.2%, 16.6 SwStr%). He’s coming off his worst start of the season, as Cleveland connected on three of the five home runs he’s allowed this year, but still has estimators around two and a half with a 31.2 K-BB% and 6.0% Barrels/BBE. So, while he generally doesn’t experience the hard contact issues that Bieber, Glasnow and Buehler have this year, he does have the toughest matchup against the Blue Jays (105 wRC+ vs LHP), who have a predominantly RH lineup, though six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020. PlateIQ actually projects value for the top pitchers in order of price tag with Bieber and Glasnow still at the top on a point per dollar basis, but it’s fairly close and hard to argue. There may be some stronger values further down on the board and that’s certainly an option tonight, while Buehler and Valdez may be a tad over-priced on FanDuel. Ownership should be spread out enough to cease from being a major issue tonight.

Lack of Strikeouts & Platoon Issues Push Estimators Above Five

If you take a step back and look at Matt Shoemaker’s key stats, he has a 10.9 SwStr%, 8.5 BB%, 44.9 GB%, 88.4 mph EV and 8.8% Barrels/BBE, all of which looks pretty average. However, he’s only turned that 10.9 SwStr% into a 14.7 K%, which has resulted in his ERA and all of his estimators exceeding five this year. Should he eventually strike out a few more batters and improve his overall results? Probably. Should we expect him to revert to a league average or better pitcher this year? Probably not. Part of his problem recently has been a 50 point platoon split that gives LHBs a .359 wOBA and .376 xwOBA) against him since last season. The upside for Shoemaker is that the Royals only have two decent LHBs, but we can utilize Carlos Santana (107 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020, 131 wRC+ last 30 days) and Andrew Benintendi (118 wRC+, 113 wRC+) as part of a middle of the order stack, along with Salvador Perez (145 wRC+, .139 wRC+), who has punished Shoemaker for five extra-base hits (two home runs) in just 19 PAs against him. The Royals have one of the highest implied run lines outside Coors tonight at just under five runs (4.92).

Too Many Sinkers Has Led to a Large Platoon Split

Matt Peacock is a cheap pitcher in a high upside matchup against a Milwaukee offense with just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP. However, the Brewers are also fairly cheap against a pitcher with a massive platoon split in an admittedly small sample. However, Peacock has thrown his sinker over 70% of the time and doesn’t project as having a platoon busting split, so his .369 wOBA (.402 xwOBA) against LHBs could hold up for a while. It’s hard to say that the Brewers have many good LHBs, but they do at least have LHBs projected in the lineup tonight. Jackie Bradley Jr (75 wRC+) is projected to lead off. Christian Yelich (96 wRC+) homered last night, so maybe he’s finally turning things around. Daniel Vogelbach (104 wRC+) and Omar Narvaez (102 wRC+) cost near the minimum on FanDuel. Despite the offensive inefficiencies, the Brewers actually have one of the top implied run lines outside Coors tonight (4.99).

Attacking Bullpens in Under-Valued Spots

There are just two bullpens that have both an ERA and FIP above five over the last 30 days. One obvious spot is in Colorado, but you’re probably already locked in on Oakland bats, even though Jon Gray has a 51.3 GB% and has allowed just five Barrels (2.8%) with a 3.55 xERA and 3.71 ERA. The A’s have the highest implied run line on the board (5.84) by more than half a run with only one other offense reaching five. The Mariners are more interesting, facing Shohei Ohtani and the Angels’ bullpen (5.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP last 30 days). Of the 154 batters to face Ohtani, 50 have struck out and 36 have put it on the ground. However, he generally runs his pitch count up fairly quickly with a 16.9 BB%, pitching beyond the fifth inning just twice and has a 4.35 SIERA. LHBs have a .347 xwOBA (.309 actual wOBA) against him since last year. This is not a terrible spot for LH Mariners, despite the 3.55 implied run line and several of them cost not much more than the minimum on either site, including Taylor Trammell (121 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Jake Fraley (146 wRC+, .219 ISO). Kyle Seager (123 wRC+, .218 ISO) is also fairly cheap.

One other spot to examine is in St Louis. Weather Edge is currently giving the park a sizeable boost in a sample of more than 100 games with similar conditions and the St Louis bullpen exceeds both a five ERA and xFIP over the last month. Their issue is in a 15.4 BB%, so this only works if we can stack against the starting pitcher. Kwang-hyun Kim’s 3.65 ERA this year is pretty close to his xERA and FIP from last year, but his velocity has been dropping, as he’s had just a 5.7 K-BB% in five May starts and only three of his 11 Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard this year. All non-FIP estimators exceed four. This looks like a spot to take advantage of regardless of bullpen struggles. There is a 44 point difference between Kim’s actual wOBA against RHBs (.281) and xwOBA (.325) since last season. The Cincinnati lineup is somewhat depleted at the moment, but that also means that you can get Nick Castellanos (140 wRC+, .291 ISO) and friends quite cheaply tonight.

A Sneaky Upside Pitcher & Other Favorable Matchups

Some of the highest upside spots on the board tonight belong to Brad Keller (vs Twins), Frankie Montas (at Coors), Dallas Keuchel (vs Tigers), Kirk Gibson (vs Rays), Matt Peacock (at Brewers), Mitch Keller (vs Marlins) and Shohei Ohtani (vs Mariners). While few of these pitchers appear enticing, there are some interesting matchups in here. Covering the biggest name first, the first four Mariners in the projected order are below a 21 K% vs RHP since 2020, but the remaining five are all above 23%. Ohtani has some control issues (16.9%), to say the least, and has struck out just 10 of his last 44 batters. This highly volatile arm is probably only an option on DraftKings ($7.6K). Keuchel has earned every bit of his 4.53 ERA. In fact, his DRA and xERA are actually above six. He’s still generating a ton of weak ground balls (86.6 mph EV, 59.5 GB%), but he’s still allowed 21 Barrels (10.4%) with just eight of them leaving the yard. He’s struck out just 30 batters over 11 starts. He does cost less than $7K on DraftKings, but even against the Tigers (76 wRC+, 31.2 K% vs LHP), the ceiling appears limited. Montas costs $9.9K on DraftKings (nearly $3K cheaper on FanDuel) at Coors, but the Rockies have just a 68 wRC+ vs RHP.

Next on the list are two pitchers generating more than half their contact on the ground. Peacock has struck out just 13 of 65 batters, but hasn’t walked one with 59.6% of his contact on the ground over three starts. He throws his sinker over 70% of the time and has generated just a 7.3 SwStr% over 28 innings this year. He’s less than $7K too though, and the Brewers have a 76 wRC+ with a 26.3 K% vs RHP. Every batter in the projected lineup is above a 22 K% vs RHP since last season. As long as we’re clear that Gibson’s 2.24 ERA shouldn’t be sustainable (.234 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB), we can agree he’s pitched well for the Rangers this year (20.1 K%, 11.8 SwStr%, 52.8 GB%, 88.7 mph EV) and has only allowed seven Barrels (4.1%), resulting in a 3.19 xERA. His SIERA, xFIP and DRA are a bit above four and he should have some value against a projected lineup that includes six batters exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020 at a cost within $400 of $8K on either site.

Lastly, we have the incredibly erratic Keller boys. Mitch’s performances and velocity have been all over the place and though he has struck out 20 of his last 68 batters, he’s done so with an 8.5 SwStr%. In fact, he’s had an above average SwStr% in just one start this year. He’s also recorded a sixth inning out in just one start. With just one-third of his contact on the ground and a 90.8 mph EV, it’s a surprise he hasn’t allowed more Barrels (8.5%) and has just an 11.5 HR/FB. All of his non-FIP estimators are above four and a half. Maybe the good version of Mitch shows up against a projected lineup with five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020 and you only have to pay $5.6K DraftKings to find out. Brad started his season horribly, but has an ERA and estimators below four with a 24.6 K% (11.0 SwStr%) and 57 GB% over the last month. But also, he’s facing the Twins (105 wRC+, 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP), so why is he even on this list? Take a look at the projected Minnesota lineup in PlateIQ. What you’ll see are a lot of small samples due to injuries, but what you’ll also see are that the first two batters are below a 20 K% vs RHP since last season, but the remaining seven are all 25% or higher. While all of these arms may be SP2 GPP options due to their matchups, Brad Keller costs just $5.5K on DraftKings, has been pitching well and may have the sneakiest upside of them all.

Your Top Pitching Choices Reside in Philly Tonight

On a board that includes all 30 teams tonight, three pitchers reach the $10K mark on both sites (Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler & Julio Urias), while three more are above $10K on only DraftKings (Freddy Peralta, Hyun-Jin Ryu & Ian Anderson). The latter three seem a bit of a reach, as Ryu faces the Astros (121 wRC+, 17.2 K% vs LHP) and Anderson doesn’t have much higher than a league average strikeout rate (25.5%) and hosts the Dodgers (119 wRC+, 22.7 K% vs RHP) in a positive run environment. Peralta has the top strikeout rate on the board (37.2%) at home against the Diamondbacks (87 wRC+), which seems fine, but Arizona doesn’t have a single batter in the projected lineup that reaches a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. There are also generally workload questions surrounding Peralta, who generally doesn’t run through the order much more than twice and quickly runs up his pitch count with double digit walks. However, there have been some positive developments in this area over his last four starts. In three of them, he’s completed at least six innings with just one walk and he’s hit the 100 pitch mark in each of his last two. If a Quality Start is on the table, Peralta is looking very strong at $8.7K on FanDuel.

Urias has come into his own this year. He’s completed five innings in all 11 starts, recording sixth inning outs in eight of them with a 28.3 K% (13.9 SwStr%). He’s walked just nine batters all season (three over his last six starts) and has an 86.7 mph EV. His 3.61 ERA matches his 3.62 DRA, but all additional estimators are even lower, as he’s had a few blow up starts and has stranded just 68.2% of runners. All of that said, his price tag may be a tad over-aggressive tonight in Atlanta (104 wRC+, 20.4 HR/FB vs LHP). Four of eight in the projected lineup are below a 20 K% vs LHP since 2020, though three of the remaining four are above 29%.

The premier pitching matchup tonight is in Philadelphia, where Scherzer faces Wheeler. These two pitchers are not only most likely to produce Quality Starts tonight, but are also the top two overall pitchers on the board, with apologies to Mr. Peralta. Tales of Scherzer’s demise have proven to be premature after his velocity ticked up in May and he allowed just eight runs over 39.1 innings with a 34 K-BB%. He tops the board with a 16.5 SwStr% and his 36.5 K% is behind only Freddy Peralta. While the 28.1 GB% is a bit extreme and has led to 10.1% Barrels/BBE, he’s not allowing enough overall contact for it to be a real problem. Even with a 14.7 HR/FB, his worst estimator is a 3.19 FIP. Four of eight projected batters for the Phillies, who are still without Bryce Harper, exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. Turns out, Wheeler actually is a $100 million pitcher, quite to the contrary of previous regime Mets’ evaluators. He’s completed seven innings with double digit strikeouts in three straight starts and now has an 86.4 mph EV without a single estimator reaching three. He’s also rocking a career high 31.7 K% and 13.1 SwStr%. Five of eight projected Nationals are below a 19 K% vs RHP since 2020, but the remaining three are above 26%, while Washington has just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Scherzer is actually cheaper than Wheeler on FanDuel, where he and Peralta are top choices, it’s a bit more difficult on DraftKings, but the high priced pitcher you want is probably pitching in Philadelphia tonight.

Two of the Worst Bullpens in Baseball Face Off

While no Mike Trout makes watching the Angels less fun, they still several bats who can handle LHP and, in fact, are one of just two offenses to reach five implied runs tonight against Justus Sheffield and the struggling Seattle bullpen. Although he’s allowed just two runs in two of his last three starts, Sheffield has walked nine and struck out just six of his last 69 batters with a 6.6 SwStr%. He now has just a 6.8 K-BB% on the season with a 90.3 mph EV and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 4.50 FIP is his best estimator and that’s only due to a 10.6 HR/FB that may not be sustainable with his contact profile (5.81 xERA). RHBs now have a .332 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him since last season. Sheffield is also backed by a Seattle bullpen with a 5.93 ERA over the last 30 days (although all of their estimators are below four). Justin Upton (127 wRC+, 300 ISO vs LHP since 2020) has found a new home in the leadoff spot and costs just $3.5K or less on either site. Phil Gosselin (148 wRC+, .195 ISO) has been starting against lefties and still costs the minimum on FanDuel. Mitch Haniger (136 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP, 137 wRC+ last 30 days) is also interesting in this game, as RHBs have a .362 wOBA against Griffin Canning since last season and the bullpen for the Angels has a major league worst 5.56 FIP to match their 5.60 ERA over the last 30 days. Considering that Canning rarely pitches deep into games, cheaper bats like Kyle Seager (125 wRC+, .220 ISO), Ty France (132 wRC+) and Taylor Trammell (119 wRC+, .286 ISO) are interesting too here.

RH Value Bat Makes This Top Stack More Affordable

Very often, players can find value in short side of the platoon righties who generally hit towards the top of the order when they do play against LHP, especially if they have any success against them because these batters are often underpriced, possibly due to their lack of overall playing time. One such batter, who has found himself in this spot many times this year and does so again tonight, is Kyle Garlick (129 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP since 2020). Garlick’s cost is still below $3K on either site against Kris Bubic (RHBs .311 wOBA, .337 xwOBA since 2020), which not only benefits him, but also those wishing to stack more expensive Twins like Nelson Cruz (212 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (125 wRC+, .172 ISO), which only makes sense, as they’re projected to bat right behind Garlick in a lineup with a 4.75 implied run line that’s tied for third highest on the board.

Over 15% of This Pitcher's Contact Has Been Barrreled

It’s fairly perplexing to see Brett Anderson costing $8.7K on DraftKings tonight. In fact, despite that and Arizona’s 3.87 implied run line, the correct course of action might be to load up on Diamondbacks against him. While Anderson still generally keeps the ball on the ground (54.1%) in his customary two trips through the order, he does so with so few strikeouts (13.5%), that batters have still barreled up 15.3% of their contact against him. However, he still has just a 4.18 ERA because only six of those barrels have left the yard. Considering his contact profile projects an 8.09 xERA and .426 xwOBA this year. Since last season, RHBs have a .332 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA against him. Something else to be aware of is that the Diamondbacks have a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year. That’s led by Ketel Marte (223 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Carson Kelly (117 wRC+, .213 ISO). The Diamondbacks present a great stacking opportunity to those paying up for pitching tonight, as not a single one of them is more than $4.4K on DraftKings or $3.4K on FanDuel. While Anderson does generally make just two trips through the order, the Milwaukee bullpen has not been as fearsome this year as it has been in recent seasons. They have just a 4.79 ERA and 4.22 FIP over the last 30 days.

This Lineup Has Strong Numbers Against Struggling Lefty

After significantly beating his estimators throughout April, J.A. Happ has experienced a reckoning over the last month to the point where his 5.24 ERA is now slightly above most estimators. Make no mistake though, he hasn’t been good (17.9 K%, 7.7 SwStr%, 45 Z-O-Swing%, 10.5% Barrels/BBE). Since last season, RHBs have a .327 wOBA and .226 ISO against him. Contributing to his issues with RH power in the last have been Whit Merrifield (125 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Salvador Perez (120 wRC+, .267 ISO), who have each homered twice against Happ. Merrifield in 18 PAs (.380 xwOBA) and Perez in 20 PAs (.486 xwOBA). Another current Royal who has had success against Happ is Carlos Santana (134 wRC+, .196 ISO) with a home run and double in 22 PAs (.469 xwOBA). Tied for third on the board at 4.75 implied runs, this combination could be the core of a Kansas City stack with potential middle of the order bat Edward Olivares, who has a 128 wRC+ over the last week or so since being recalled and costs $2.3K or less on either site.

Struggling Lefty May Still Be One of Tonight's Top Values

Lance Lynn has one of the top spots on the board against the Tigers, but there are a number of high upside matchups on this board that don’t belong to the highest priced pitchers, including Tyler Anderson vs the Marlins (91 wRC+, 28.5 K% vs LHP), Elieser Hernandez at the Pirates (82 wRC+, 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP), Jon Duplantier at the Brewers (76 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs RHP) and Griffin Canning vs the Mariners (87 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP). Hernandez and Duplantier each have made one start and appearance this year with the former’s coming on April 3rd and the latter last week. Hernandez has pitched 28 innings since last season. In 176 career innings, he has a league average 14.5 K-BB%, 88.1 mph EV, 7.4% Barrels/BBE and 10.6 SwStr%. He’s struck out 17 of 48 with three walks over 12.1 AAA rehab innings and should be stretched out enough to handle whatever workload the Marlins wish to hand him. He might have some value as an SP2 on DraftKings at $7.6K if most of the player base is going to bypass him. The highest wOBA in the projected Pittsburgh lineup vs RHP since last season is .330, the highest ISO is .195 and six of eight are above a 24 K%. Duplantier struck out five of 25 Cardinals. Over 41.1 career innings, the 26 year-old has a 10.1 K-BB% with league average batted ball and contact profiles The highest wOBA in the projected Milwaukee lineup vs RHP since last season is .326, the highest ISO is .175 and five of eight are above a 24 K%. So, ditto for Duplantier on DraftKings at just $5.2K, but at that price, he’ll likely garner significant consideration behind a higher priced pitcher in this spot.

Increased velocity and spin rates in April have decreased in May, leading to an ERA and FIP above five for Anderson last month. Seven of his 10 Barrels (11.4%) left the yard last month with a 91.3 mph EV, even if the 15.9 K-BB% stayed on target. While the Marlins have been a bit more dangerous against LHP (four projected batters above a .345 wOBA and/or .220 ISO vs LHP since 2020), there are also five batters above a 27 K% vs LHP since last year projected. Despite the dropoff, Anderson has to be strongly considered in this spot on either site with a marginal price tag. Canning is a bit more expensive and that could hurt his value because he’s only completed six innings twice (although in two of his last three starts) and hasn’t reached 95 pitches in an outing this year. However, he maintains an impressive 14.9 SwStr%, which suggests his 25.9 K% still has room to improve. A 10.3 BB% could be holding the strikeout rate back a bit, but the home run ball has been a major issue. The 89.4 mph EV is just a touch higher than average, but just 34.5% of his contact has been on the ground, resulting in 9.9% Barrels/BBE and a 22.2 HR/FB. That said, it seems a bit unlucky that 10 of his 11 Barrels have left the yard. His 4.47 xERA is still a run below his 5.40 ERA. Additional non-FIP estimators are slightly lower. Five of nine projected Mariners exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020, but considering they’re all projected in the latter half of the order, Canning may only face them twice. His price tag makes him a harder sell here.

One last pitcher to talk about might be Anthony DeSclafani as a leverage play because the Cubs have been red hot, coming off a sweep of the Padres at Wrigley, but they still have just a 98 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. DeSclafani has been a fairly average pitcher this season by peripherals (21.6 K%, 11.2 SwStr%, 4.23 SIERA), but his 3.40 xERA is closer to his 3.56 ERA and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of 11 starts. He’s not going to go off and win you a GPP on his own, but with a price tag less than $8K, he has a chance to be one of the better and more under-utilized pitching options on a slate that doesn’t seem to have a lot of pitching value.

Aggressive Pricing Leaves Top Pitchers Lacking Value

Members of Thursday night’s eight game slate $10K club include Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn, who both reach $11K on FanDuel and Taijuan Walker on DraftKings. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the only one who reaches $10K on both. Walker returned from a short IL stint with a jump back up in velocity, after he had dropped a bit in his previous few starts, and struck out eight of the 16 Braves he faced with a single walk. After April control issues, he’s walked just five of his last 102 batters. If he sustains the velocity and control, the Mets have at least a middle of the rotation arm on their hands, rather than a bottom one. While Walker has just a 38.7 GB%, he has a 19 IFFB%. That all said, five of eight projected batters for the Padres have a 16 K% or lower vs RHP since last season. The cost is certainly too high and unwarranted in this case. He might be viable for just $8K on FanDuel and has four Quality Starts in nine attempts this year.

Lynn has a strong matchup against the Tigers (89 wRC+, 27 K% vs RHP). He was pulled after 82 pitches against the Orioles with just three hits, no runs and seven strikeouts because they are starting him on three days rest yesterday, but now he’ll be on full rest with the layoff. The stuff appears to be getting back to normal with a 24.3 K% over the last month and 26.9% on the season, but he does have the lowest ground ball rate of his career (32.8%). A 1.37 ERA is the product of a .222 BABIP, 87.8 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB. The contact profile is strong (2.58 xERA), but other non-FIP estimators are above three and a half. This is a strong spot for a solid pitcher, but a lot of Lynn’s value in recent years has been in his hefty workload. Since returning from an April IL stint, he’d surpassed 100 pitches in three straight starts prior to his last time out, but has recorded sixth inning outs in just four of nine starts this year. An $11K price tag on FanDuel may not leave much room for excess value. $9.7K on DraftKings is a better value.

Darvish is coming off his worst start of the season as the Astros tagged him for five runs in five innings. Although he has a 24 K-BB%, we have to recognize that his 12 SwStr% is his lowest since 2018 and third lowest mark of his career behind a sustained velocity drop of more than a mile per hour from last year. However, that’s still an above average SwStr% and his contact management has never been better (86.7 mph EV, 4.9% Barrels/BBE), which it needs to be with a 31.3 GB% that’s 10 points below his career average and the reason why his xFIP is just under four. Additional estimators are all below three and a half though. Additional negatives include the Mets’ board high team 140 wRC+ over the last week (19.8 K%) as they begin to get healthier and a significant weather boost per Weather Edge that turns Petco into a positive run environment tonight. While none of this really makes Darvish a poor play tonight, it may be enough ammunition to consider going under-weight on his ownership projection, which should be fairly enormous when updated later today. Darvish and Lynn should be considered your top overall pitchers on Thursday night, even if they may not be the best values.

Top Offense Failed Last Night, Gets Another Shot in Smash Spot

Somehow, the Dodgers didn’t do much against a RHP with a 15.2 BB% last night. Round two is against a RHP with a 13.6 K% and 7.7 SwStr% tonight. While Carlos Martinez is also generating half his contact on the ground (50.3%), he hasn’t shown any particular talent for managing contact (8.4% Barrels/BBE) and the Dodgers should eat him up. Just three of his 14 Barrels have left the yard, which accounts for his 4.22 ERA and 4.08 FIP, but other estimators, including a 5.24 xERA, are much higher. Since last season, Martinez is actually showing about a 50 point reverse split with RHBs up around a .350 wOBA, but Statcast pushes both sides up over 30 points (LHBs .339 xwOBA, RHBs .385 xwOBA). While Mookie Betts and Max Muncy are obvious names with the entire projected lineup above a 97 wRC+ and .165 ISO vs RHP since 2020, less expensively are Will Smith (172 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Chris Taylor (138 wRC+, .175 ISO), along with Gavin Lux (98 wRC+, .194 ISO) in a strong spot. The St Louis bullpen also has a 4.88 ERA and 4.92 SIERA over the last 30 days. The Dodgers are just outside the top quarter of the board at 4.95 implied runs on Wednesday.

Top Value Bats Against Struggling Starters and Bullpens

Matt Harvey is expected to work a shortened outing, sort of like an Opener here on just three days rest. The only difference between today and his last few starts is that the shortened length has been pre-determined. He has allowed 24 runs over his last 12.2 innings with four home runs. Over this span, his 90.2 mph EV, 9.3% Barrels/BBBE and 14.8 K-BB% are all fairly average. It’s really a .500 BABIP and 37.4 LOB% that are doing the damage. For the season, his xERA is exactly five and no other estimators are higher. He hasn’t been good, but all estimators agree he’s being done a bit dirty here. Perhaps it’s the defense (-9 Runs Prevented) that’s abandoned him. Don’t expect much from this bullpen behind him either. They have a 6.05 ERA (4.22 FIP) over the last 30 days. The Twins are the lowest of four teams above five implied runs (5.12) on an eight game slate on Wednesday and while it doesn’t take a lot or research to suggest utilizing Nelson Cruz (127 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Josh Donaldson (117 wRC+, .208 ISO) in this spot, a great value here might be Trevor Larnach (129 wRC+ vs RHP, 146 wRC+ last 30 days), who costs $2.5K or less on either site and is projected to bat sixth.

Value can also be found on both sides in this matchup with Randy Dobnak’s 93.2 mph EV (9.0% Barrels/BBE) too. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last season and D.J. Stewart (119 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site, while Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+, .176 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel. The Minnesota bullpen also has an ERA of 5.00 with a 5.03 FIP over the last 30 days as well.

Top Bats on the Board May Not Be At Coors Tonight

The top spot on the board for bats outside Coors tonight is Atlanta. In fact, the Braves currently tie both the Rockies and Rangers atop the board at 5.5 implied runs. Attacking Jon Lester with right-handed bats at this point in his career is a pretty obvious move. They have a .351 wOBA and .366 xwOBA against him since last year. However, the Nationals may be the more interesting side here, despite sitting on the middle of the board at a full run less (4.5 implied runs). In addition to nearly cutting his strikeout rate from last year in half (20.3%), velocity and ground balls are also down for Drew Smyly. The things that have increased are not what a pitcher wants to increase, like exit velocity (91 mph), Barrels/BBE (12.3%) and home runs (13 already). Even Smyly’s contact neutral estimators are above four and a half. Even including last year, RHBs have a .333 wOBA & .354 xwOBA against him. The park in Atlanta is also one of the most positive run environments in the league outside Coors. Trea Turner (206 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP since 2020) may be the top overall bat on the board tonight, along with Ronald Acuna (173 wRC+, .292 ISO vs LHP) and can be supplemented with Josh Harrison (130 wRC+, .212 ISO), much more cheaply and projected to bat second. In fact, Kyle Schwarber (96 wRC+) is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 95 wRC+ vs LHP since last season.