DFS Alerts

Workload Concerns Towards the Back End of Rotations

Teams are generally more cautious with starting pitchers in early April, but the much smaller workloads may increase that cautiousness, especially in terms of younger pitchers or for those teams who expect to contend for post-season positions. There are a lot of innings to cover and nobody threw more than 80 of them last year. We saw this play out over the weekend as teams had incredibly quick hooks and looking at today’s board, it could be a lot more of the same. In fact, with most teams towards the back of their rotations now, we’re likely to see a lot of bullpens today, something players need not only consider when selecting pitchers, but hitters as well. The Rays seem to be prone to piggybacking starters after Glasnow and Adrian Morejon didn’t exceed 11 batters in four starts last year. While they are most likely to pull their starters very early tonight, it’s really almost the entire slate we have to be concerned about in terms of workload. The Dodgers are famous for pitcher conservation and Dustin May is unlikely to break the mold in his first start. In fact, Jacob deGrom is likely to be the only pitcher we shouldn’t worry about and that still only probably means around six innings.

DeGrom is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball. He had a 32.1 K-BB% last year and did not allow more than three ERs in any of his 12 starts. His 2.38 ERA was within a half run of all of his estimators, the largest of which was a 2.74 xERA, which is still the top number on the board. The only concern we should have is the possible disruption of his routine this weekend. Of course, the issue is that deGrom costs nearly $4K more than any other pitcher on FanDuel and almost $2K more on DraftKings. Everyone is going to be on him and for good reason. He’s nearly impossible to completely fade tonight. Utilizing anyone else (and on DraftKings you have to) means you’re looking to catch lightening in a bottle for a few innings and Nick Pivetta may be your best bet for that. He could get completely torched by the Rays, but they also have some enormous projected strikeouts rates in that lineup, only two below 23%. Pivetta costs less than $7K on either site.

Potential For a Lot of Hard, Elevated Contact

Andrew Heaney struck out a quarter of the batters he faced last year (25.1%) and his 12.3 HR/FB was a career low for any season in which he’s thrown more than six innings. The problem is that he’s a fly ball pitcher (38.8 GB% career) with a tendency for hard contact (89 mph EV). He’s allowed 85 HRs in 504.2 innings. It’s a bigger problem that he’s facing the White Sox (143 wRC+, 22.1 HR/FB vs LHP last year). Eloy Jimenez may be gone, but there’s still plenty of RH power in this lineup. While each of the first five batters in the projected lineup are above a .325 wOBA and .170 ISO against LHP since 2019, the real surprise is that there are not a lot of strikeouts in this lineup either. Only Yasmani Grandal (23.6%) and Yoan Moncada (30.6%) are above a 20 K% against southpaws over this span. This could potentially mean a lot of hard contact in the air. Tim Anderson leads the assault on southpaws with a .422 wOBA and .264 ISO against LHP since 2019. On a slate where the only hitter friendly park on the entire slate is Coors, players may be able to gain some leverage on Dodger stacks with some White Sox in their lineup.

The Top Strikeout Rate By Five Points

The good news is that Trevor Bauer will make his Dodger debut against one of the worst teams in baseball. The bad news is that he’ll do so at Coors. Let’s just go ahead and admit the .215 BABIP and 90.9 LOB% are completely unsustainable to start with. That said, his 3.25 xFIP was his only estimator above three, bested by a 2.18 xERA. His 36 K% was a career high by more than five points, his 29.9 K-BB% by exactly seven.

Coors will be a more interesting atmosphere this year because the home team may be so bad that it still pays to roster opposing pitchers. Four of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since last season. But that also doesn’t mean you don’t want to roster potentially cheap Colorado hitters at home either. Sam Hilliard may be the most interesting target there. He costs just $2.3K on DraftKings with a .284 ISO against them in 83 PAs since last season, according to PlateIQ. In the end, Bauer is still probably a pitcher you want to roster here (especially in GPPs) due to the upside. No other pitcher on the board was within five points of his K% last year. While it’s close between and Blake Snell for the top spot tonight, the fact that he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and pitching in Coors will likely give Bauer the lower ownership rate.

Top Value Behind the Plate in Smash Spot

Antonio Senzatela barely exceeds a 13 K% over 198 innings since 2019. He does keep the ball on the ground (50.6 career GB%), but his 3.44 ERA last year was a fluke (.268 BABIP, 79.6 LOB%). His best estimator was a 4.52 DRA. The ground ball rate is nice and led to just 5.4% Barrels/BBE, but when you miss so few bats, there are still going to be plenty of batted balls with some launch. Senzatela, surprisingly held the Dodgers to two or fewer runs in two of his three starts against them last year, but allowed four HRs in the other, which was on the road. Theoretically, the Dodgers should punish Senzatela in this spot. Each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 120 wRC+ with only Justin Turner (.175) below a .200 ISO. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela since 2019. Will Smith may be one of the top values on the board on FanDuel, where he costs a moderate $3.4K. Rostering a lower cost, high upside pitcher like Pablo Lopez, might help make a Dodger stack more affordable.

An Affordable Arm in a High Upside Spot

Pablo Lopez has increased his K-BB from 11.3% to 14.5% to 17.1% in his three seasons in the majors. Of course, that still only amounts to 227.1 innings, which is a single season for a workhorse pitcher, but he’s also increased his velocity around half a mile per hour each season too with 49.3% of his contact on the ground and just an 87.1 mph EV. While the Rays boast a quality offense, according to PlateIQ, six batters in the projected lineup have struck out at least 27% of the time against RHP since last season and that’s not even counting the pitcher’s spot. Lopez has a 17.2 K-BB% and 7.4 HR/FB at home since 2019 with an xFIP at 3.00. In a high upside spot, Lopez costs less than $8K on either site. In fact, there are only five pitchers cheaper on DraftKings.

A Rise in Strikeout Rate in 2020 That's Continued This Spring

It’s pretty surprising that an Opening Day main slate would find just two pitchers reaching $10K and just two more reaching $9K on DraftKings. Although, Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber are available on the FanDuel main slate, a lot of the top pitchers are off the board on DK. Never the less, if you are paying up for Yu Darvish or Aaron Nola, you’re probably going to be in search of a cheap secondary arm and Sandy Alcantara may be your top choice in that venture. Alcantara upped his strikeout rate 4.7 points to 22.7% last season and has followed that up with 27 strikeouts over 20.1 innings this spring. He did this without really changing his pitch mix and his whiff rates only went up marginally. His 3.00 ERA last year was about a run below estimators, due eight of his 22 runs being unearned. It’s possible he doesn’t retain all of his gains, but it remains to be seen. The interesting aspect of this game however, is that the projected lineup for the Rays strikes out a ton! Only two of eight batters in the projected lineup struck out less than 26% of the time last year. Miami is still a pitcher friendly park, despite recent changes to make it more hitter friendly and the Rays also lose the DH in an NL park. With the game in Boston wiped off the board, Alcantara is the fourth cheapest arm on DraftKings ($6.5K).

Mets-Nationals postponed due to COVID-19 contact tracing Thursday

Game Update: Mets-Nationals postponed due to COVID-19 contact tracing Thursday

Orioles-Red Sox postponed due to rain Thursday

Game Update: Orioles-Red Sox postponed due to rain Thursday

A .297 ISO vs RHP Since 2019 For $3K or Less

Kyle Gibson is fine near the back of your rotation, but if he’s starting on Opening Day, your team is probably in trouble. In 12 starts last year, his strikeout rate dropped under 20% for the first time in three years (19.3%), while he posted the worst walk rate of his career (10%). His 5.35 ERA had estimators both well above and below that mark, though it’s tough to consolidate a 26.7 HR/FB in a park that Texas hitters were complaining about being too pitcher friendly. Batters from either side of the plate have enjoyed a wOBA and xwOBA above .325 against Gibson since 2019 and this Kansas City lineup is a little more interesting than it used to be. With Adalberto Mondesi hitting the IL, Jorge Soler is now projected to move up to the top half of the lineup at a very affordable price ($3K or less on either site). A 133 wRC+ and .297 ISO against RHP since 2019, along with a 98 mph EV on liners and fly balls could make him a top value on Opening Day.

Look For This Big Arm to Bounce Back In 2021

Nobody expected Jack Flaherty to sustain his second half 2019 pace (0.91 ERA over 99.1 IP), but a 4.91 ERA in nine starts last year was unsightly and somewhat corroborated by Statcast (5.01 xERA), though additional estimators were about a run lower. However, his strikeout rate (28.8%) dropped only a point and his SwStr rate (14.3%) even improved. Batters were able to lay off pitches outside the zone (29 O-Swing%) and connect more inside of it (83.3 Z-Contact%). Flaherty had a 31.7 LD%, though just 6.9% Barrels/BBE and 87.7 mph EV. There’s a good chance that all the stops and fits of the 2020 season affected him too. He made his first start on July 24th and lasted just nine batters in his second one on August 19th. His 2020 season was a mess, but all the tools still appear to be there for a big rebound. There was no drop off in velocity and only a minor one in spin rates. The Cincinnati offense is also due for a rebound. They hit .212, but with some power, resulting in a 91 wRC+. And it’s a very power friendly park, but the April weather may offset the risk somewhat. The Reds don’t strike out a ton, but Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez were both above a 30% last year against RHP and could see Flaherty three times each. RHBs have just a .247 wOBA against Flaherty since 2019. At exactly $8.6K on either site, this is a pitcher with more than enough talent to far exceed his price tag.

All of the Elements For An Abundance of Hard Contact

Another favorable forecast from Kevin: “Gametime temps close to 80 degrees and a daytime game removing any threat of the marine layer makes our west coast games more attractive than usual.” We saw this effect in the post-season last year when baseballs flew out of this park during day games in October. It may not be exactly the same with a slightly deadened ball, but that effect should be universal.

Next, let’s cover Madison Bumgarner, who allowed 13 HRs in just 41.2 innings last year amidst a three mph drop in velocity. Injuries were likely one cause and he’ll likely be better this year, but let’s also recognize that he allowed 50 Barrels in 2019 with a 3.90 ERA much lower than a 4.60 xERA, likely due to a favorable home park. RHBs have a .332 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against Bumgarner since 2019. The Arizona bullpen also projects in the bottom half of the league according to recent Fangraphs rankings.

Lastly, we confirm the destruction of the baseball by the San Diego Padres. Each of six RHBs in the projected lineup have at least a 118 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs LHP since 2019. Remove Jurickson Profar and the wRC+ jumps to 125. Manny Machado, Wil Myers and Fernando Tatis each exceed a 150 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws since 2019. All three also exceeded a 90 mph EV overall last season. Myers costs just $2.9K on FanDuel, while Tommy Pham (92.8 mph EV in 2020) can help offset high stacking prices at just $3.1K on DraftKings.

Opening Day Forecast For Top Park Demands Attention

To quote Kevin Roth: “Mid 60s in COL when so many games are in the 30s and 40s makes this game even more desirable than normal.” If you were thinking of fading Coors, that may no longer be in your best interest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Dodgers are the team you have to stack.

Clayton Kershaw enjoyed a bit of a rebirth last year, enjoying his lowest ERA (2.16) since 2016 and his best strikeout rate (28.1%) and velocity (91.6 mph) since 2017. While his estimators were about a run higher, that’s still one of the best pitchers in the league. His exit velocity didn’t change much, but his average launch angle did (7.9 degrees), which led to the highest ground ball rate of his career (53%), in front of one of the best defenses on baseball (7 Runs Prevented). However, Kershaw still allowed 12 Barrels and eight HRs last year. He’s followed up with three HRs in 12.1 innings this spring and there are reports that his velocity has been sitting 88 to 90 mph again. These March numbers are not immediately alarming, but they might just provide enough motivation to stick a few Colorado bats in your lineups on Opening Day.

The positive shine on the loss of Nolan Arenado for DFS players here is that only Trevor Story (136 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP since 2019) remains exorbitantly expensive here. C.J. Cron is the guy you should be looking at. He has a 151 wRC+ and .310 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and smoked 19.2% Barrels/BBE last year with a 97.6 mph EV on fly balls and line drives. While Kershaw has held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since 2019, circumstances (weather and park) dictate that this may be a good spot for Colorado bats.

An Affordable Opening Day Likely Pitching Duel

Good or even great pitching is fairly easy to find on Opening Day, but finding it affordably is more of a prize and that’s exactly what we’re likely getting from both sides in Milwaukee on Thursday. Though it’s one of the few environments protected from the early April weather, it’s only a neutral run environment with the roof closed and there are a lot of things to like about this pitching matchup. Both Kenta Maeda and Brandon Woodruff are coming off Cy Young worthy seasons. Each exceeded a 30% strikeout rate with ERAs and estimators right around three. Both were excellent contact managers as well, Woodruff with an 86.7 mph EV and 17.2 IFFB% and Maeda with an 85.3 mph EV. Both had a 49% ground ball rate as well. Each pitcher will have a top defense behind them as well. The Brewers added three Gold Glove caliber defenders since the end of last season (Cain, Bradley, Wong) and the Twins were tied for third with seven Runs Prevented, according to Statcast. Both lineups lean more right-handed against pitchers who have dominated RHBs (Maeda below a .230 wOBA & xwOBA, Woodruff exactly a .250 wOBA & xwOBA since 2019). In addition, an NL park means the Twins loose the DH, which very likely means Nelson Cruz. Christian Yelich (160 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is really the only dangerous LH bat in either lineup. In fact, projected lineups for the game include nine batters above a 25 K% vs RHP last season. Lastly, let’s get back to that affordable part again. Neither pitcher reaches $9.5K on FanDuel on a main slate where four pitchers are $10K or more. On DraftKings, both are below $8.5K with six pitchers more expensive than either.

An Impressive Spring Sets Up a Rebound Year

As this was being written, Pete Alonso had just sent the ball 354 feet at 109.7 mph for a run scoring double in his first PA on Monday afternoon, the last pre-season game for the Mets. You could say Alonso suffered a sophomore slump in 2020, dropping 39 points in wOBA and three points in Barrel%, though his exit velocity, walk and strikeout rates remained the same from his rookie season. His wRC+ suffered a 25 point drop, but the good news is that a lot of this was BABIP (.280 to .242). His batted ball and Statcast numbers look very much the same. His max velocity was 118 mph in each season. The even better news is that Alonso has regularly found himself among Statcast Gamefeed’s Top Exit Velocity and Top Distances in March. While Statcast is not available in every spring training facility, it’s still an informative leaderboard to appear on. More traditional statistics show Alonso crushing the ball with a 1.143 OPS and four spring HRs in 49 At Bats. Look for big Pete to bounce back in his third season. A slightly deadened ball shouldn’t slow him down much.

Potentially Boston's Next Big Slugger

A March 9th MLB.com article from David Adler was eye opening when it compared the first major league looks of two young players and found many similarities. Bobby Dalbec struck out in 42.4% of 92 PAs last year, but Aaron Judge struck out in 44.2% of his first 95. Also like Judge, when Dalbec did make contact (41 BBE), it was often loud and hard, connecting on nine Barrels. His xwOBA on contact was a hearty .577. No doubt the strikeout rate needs to improve substantially, yet the Judge comparison serves as proof that it can be done and if so, Dalbec could be the next great Boston slugger. While he’s dropped that rate below 40% this pre-season as of this writing, the bad news being it’s just barely (19 Ks in 51 PAs), but he’s also continued smashing the ball with seven HRs this spring.