DFS Alerts
A Bounce Back to Believe In
In 2019, Ketel Marte seemingly came out of nowhere to post a 150 wRC+ with 32 HRs and was worth 7.0 fWAR, a true MVP candidate. In last year’s short season, he posted just a 94 wRC+ with two HRs and 0.4 fWAR. The drop off was fueled by a 0.8 mph drop in exit velocity and a Barrels rate that went from 9.1% to 3.7%. Marte did play in 45 of 60 games, but also had a short IL stint with a wrist injury in September. Considering the way he’s been smoking the ball this spring, it’s quite possible that last year’s numbers and not 2019’s were the fluke. Marte has found a home on Statcast Gamefeed’s Exit Velocity and Distance leaders many times this spring, both numbers that correlate very well with power. More traditional numbers show him with three HRs in 37 pre-season At Bats and a 1.135 OPS at the time of this writing. Expectations for a seven fWAR season shouldn’t be the norm outside of Mike Trout, but if his spring Statcast numbers are any indication, let’s get excited about Ketel Marte’s 2021 season.
A Breakout to Believe In
Randy Arozarena rose to national attention last October by homering 10 times in 86 post-season PAs, but he also went deep seven times in just 76 regular season PAs with a 176 wRC+ and was worth 0.8 fWAR. While most of us were packing on our quarantine fifteen with pizza and ice cream, Arozarena spent his down time last year packing on the muscle and the result was barreling six of his 43 batted balls during the regular season with a 90.3 mph average exit velocity. His xwOBA, while quite a bit lower than his .422 actual mark, was still a very healthy .369. And don’t you dare throw him a four-seamer, which he had a +5 Run Value and .469 xwOBA against. Expect him to certainly see more offspeed and breaking pitching this season, but the numbers back the breakout here. Though he has struggled this spring (.563 OPS), look for Arozarena to continue punishing the baseball this year, while he even maintains his rookie eligibility. In fact, ScoresandOdds.com tells us that he’s currently the AL Rookie of the Year odds on favorite at DraftKings this year.
Defense Matters
Last year, the Brewers were a very marginal defensive team with -1 Runs Prevented and 0 Outs Above Average according to Statcast. However, the team has made some big moves to bolster that part of their team with the key additions of Kolten Wong (3 RP & 3 OAA) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (6 RP & 6 OAA) in addition to the return of Lorenzo Cain (opt out). In accordance with these moves, the Brewers should be one of the top defensive teams in the league this year. Defense is not an actionable daily fantasy stat, but it does directly impact the games. Top of the rotation strikeout artists like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff may not see much of a boost, but someone like Adrian Houser could experience a slight value boost, while opposing hitters suffer a decline in value. Even when someone like Brett Anderson starts, he’ll likely be limited to twice through the order with stud arms like Josh Hader and Devin Williams coming in behind him. The Brewers may be a difficult team for opposing batters to find daily fantasy success against in 2021.
MLB to Use Statcast to Crack Down on Ball Doctoring in 2021
It’s hard to tell for sure when a pitcher is using illegal substances to doctor the baseball with the goal of increasing their spin rates, which generally makes the ball harder to contact, but we’ve all seen those tweets capturing television video of certain pitchers fussing with their caps or other part of their uniform during particularly efficient outings. Now, MLB is planning on cracking down on this practice and they are using Statcast spin rates (among other resources) to do so, according to a March 24th tweet from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It wouldn’t be right to name names without absolute proof, but daily fantasy players may want to beware of pitchers who experienced sudden spin rate jumps and perhaps even considering stacking against them early on.
Beware the Dead Ball
Tinkerer of things that don’t necessarily need to be fixed, Rob Manfred has decided to deaden the baseballs prior to the 2021 season after having denied any livening effect over the last few years. According to a recent ESPN article just before the start of Spring Training, the anticipated result is a “1 to 2 feet shorter on balls over 375 feet”. One intended effect is more balls in play. Also from the article, “five more teams plan to add humidifiers to their stadiums”, bringing the total up to 10 parks. Did you even know that Fenway, Safeco and Citi Field added humidifiers last year? Neither did most fans. To make things even more difficult, the MLB memo did not name the five additional parks gaining humidors this year.
What does all this mean? Home run rates should decrease, making fly ball pitchers less risky/more valuable for daily fantasy players. Matt Boyd is the name that immediately comes to mind with a 41.5 FB% and 19.7 HR/FB last year. The effect shouldn’t be overwhelming, but be aware when relying on recent park factors early on. The guys who blast the ball over the wall are still going to get theirs, but lineups may not have guys in the eight or nine slots capable of hitting 20 HRs this year.
Leave some salary cap space for Tony Gonsolin
The Dodgers haven’t confirmed a starting pitcher for tonight’s game against the Padres, but leave a bit of salary space in some of your daily fantasy lineups in case it’s Tony Gonsolin. He can make the case for being the best starting pitcher the Dodgers had this season even with a Kershaw resurgence. Walking just seven, he generated a 22.1 K-BB%. A 4.0 HR/FB is not sustainable with just four of his six Barrels leaving the yard and perhaps just 4.9% Barrels/BBE is pushing it too with just a 34.2 GB%, but even removing the contact profile (3.33 xERA), his worst estimator is still a 3.80 xERA. The matchup isn’t ideal with the Padres owning a 119 wRC+, 20.7 K% and 19 HR/FB vs RHP that rivals the Dodgers’ own marks, but considering your other options and a price tag below $8K on FanDuel, Gonsolin could be the top pitcher and value on the board if he gets the ball tonight.
LHBs have a .402 wOBA against Kyle Wright since last season
The collective Marlins offense against RHP comprises the worst offense on the board (89 wRC+, 11.4 HR/FB) and it should help Kyle Wright that they’ll only be able to muster three LHBs against him in this lineup (just one in the first five) because his .402 wOBA/.389 xwOBA against LHBs since 2019 is the absolute worst split on the board today. The lack of left-handed Marlins doesn’t preclude Corey Dickerson from potentially being a top value today. His 122 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 is tops in the lineup. His .213 ISO against them is second. A sub-$3K price tag on FanDuel is the cherry on top. With none of the Miami bats in the confirmed starting lineup above $3K on FanDuel, many of them can be considered at least decent values, considering Wright hasn’t been great against same-handed batters either (.324 wOBA/.377 xwOBA). While his 10.8 K-BB% in September exactly triples his season rate, it’s still far from impressive.
Six HRs in five post-season games for Giancarlo Stanton
Ryan Thompson will open for the Rays and while RHBs have a .339 wOBA against him, that drops to just a .270 xwOBA with a 55.6 GB%. Ryan Yarbrough is expected (though not confirmed) to follow, but it’s a good bet they’ll want Thompson to face Giancarlo Stanton before exiting because nothing that anyone has thrown at him this post-season has worked. He’s homered six times in five games. He’s absolutely destroying the baseball right now, which is an ability that was never in question, just if he could make contact with it often enough. When Stanton made contact during the regular season, it was a Barrel 18.4% of the time. While Thompson may give the Rays a bit more of an advantage the first time around, what are the Rays planning to do the next four or five?
Jordan Montgomery has struck out 24 of his last 66 batters
Jordan Montgomery finished the season with a solid 24.4 K%, but the story here is that he struck out 24 of his last 66 batters with a 15.4 SwStr% to get there. If he can sustain and combine even his season ending rate with his penchant for creating soft contact (84.6 mph), the Yankees will have at least another strong mid-rotation arm for years to come. His 5.11 ERA was more than a run above all estimators except for 4.48 DRA, due to a 65 LOB%. This will be his first career post-season appearance and as we get deeper into these series, he may be the safest pick on the board. As of this writing, neither the Dodgers, nor Astros have confirmed starting pitchers, while the Padres and Rays are using Openers (though we can at least expect Ryan Yarbrough to get some innings here). The remaining options are Kyle Wright (3.6 K-BB%), Sixto Sanchez against perhaps the top offense against RHP in baseball or Frankie Montas against an Astros offense with a board low 19.8 K% vs RHP this year in a park that the ball has been jumping out of in this series. Montgomery will be facing a Tampa Bay offense with a 121 wRC+, 11.7 BB% and 22 HR/FB vs LHP. None of these options are safe. However, the Rays also have a board high 28.5 K% vs LHP. At $8.3K on FanDuel, Montgomery is the second lowest priced of the four currently confirmed starting pitchers with potentially the most value.
The Best Of A Bad Group Of Arms
There’s absolutely nothing great about any of the pitching options today, but Montas feels like the best of a thin bunch. He should be rested and ready to go for this game, and hopefully the A’s let him pitch deep into the game after closer Liam Hendricks threw three innings yesterday. They need to bridge the gap to their bullpen after their starters have struggled in this series. Montas had an above average 25% strikeout rate during the regular season with two strong starts against these Astros, helping to secure his upside in this spot.
Elite GPP Stack
I am likely going to roll with 100% Yankees stacks in tournaments today. This is an explosive, power laden offense that is up against the wall facing elimination. With a bullpen game in tow for the opposing Rays, I expect the NYY power bats to show up today. Stanton is locked in right now, while Judge and LeMahieu offer upside as well. Torres is my sneaky home run call of the day, and Aaron Hicks provides some value.
Top Bat On The Slate
The San Diego parade of relievers worked against the Cardinals in the wild card round, but the Dodgers are presenting a tougher test. It’s not working in this series, and the Padres have simply worn their pitching too thin at this point. Betts has to be considered one of the top individual hitters on this slate, especially since the Dodgers are the road team tonight. This increases the likelihood that he will get five at bats. In addition, there are no pitching options that we need to spend top dollar on today, which makes it easier to fit Betts into lineups.
Ian Anderson has the top matchup on the board (Marlins 89 wRC+, 11.4 HR/FB vs RHP)
Ian Anderson made a splash with a 29.7 K% through six starts, though control has been inconsistent (board high 10.1 BB%), a trait that plagued him at times in the minors as well. Anderson has also been able to generate a lot of weak contact (86.7 mph EV) on the ground (52.5 GB%). In fact, though it’s not sustainable, he allowed just a single Barrel during the regular season, generating a board best 2.58 xERA. All other non-FIP estimators were more than a run above his 1.95 ERA though, due to .250 BABIP, 4.5 HR/FB and four of his 11 runs being unearned, but only a 3.82 SIERA was above four and a half. Anderson continued his strong work in his opening round start, striking out nine of the 22 Reds he faced with just two walks and two hits, although just three of 11 batted balls were on the ground. His matchup with the Marlins probably puts him in the top spot on the board tonight. Their 89 wRC+ vs RHP is the worst split today, as is their 11.4 HR/FB against them as well. A 25.1 K% vs RHP sits only behind Tampa Bay’s mark of 26.3%. Anderson is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $9.5K and more than $1K above everyone not named Kershaw, but he’s still potentially the top value in this high upside spot.
Austin Meadows homered last night and has a .265 ISO vs RHP since 2019
Austin Meadows made a triumphant return to the Tampa Bay lineup last night with a HR and will likely be at the top of the order against Masahiro Tanaka tonight. Meadows has blasted RHP for a 144 wRC+ and .265 ISO since last season and Tanaka has been quite HR prone over the last several years himself, including a 16.4 HR/FB and 9.1% Barrels/BBE this year. In fact, Meadows has faced Tanaka 21 times in his career with two HRs. According to Statcast, Meadows has a .472 xwOBA in these matchups with a 90.6 mph EV and 28.3 degree launch angle. To make things even more enticing, he costs just $3K on FanDuel, where he could be one of the top values on the board.
LHBs have a career .347 wOBA against Pablo Lopez
Freddie Freeman appeared to be the only Atlanta bat that didn’t produce big results in Game One against the Marlins, but he’s still the top bat on the team against RHP (171 wRC+, .302 ISO since 2019) and we’re going to go back to that well again today. Freeman finished with a 213 wRC+ over the last 30 days of the season that’s the best mark among still active players in this post-season. While results haven’t been as strong against the Reds and Marlins (just one hit), it’s still such a small sample and he has walked four times with just one strikeout in 15 PAs. While Pablo Lopez has done a great job of shutting down RHBs in his career (.257 wOBA, .279 xwOBA), LHBs have had some success (.347 wOBA, .333 xwOBA). While it didn’t work out yesterday, the Braves once again have the top implied run line at 5.15 (Dodgers not yet posted) and Freddie Freeman may again be the top overall bat on the board.