DFS Alerts
The Chalk Offense
I am not convinced that Luke Weaver is a gas can, but he simply can’t get anyone out right now — and any pitcher who allows hard contact at a 54% clip is going to be in trouble going against the behemoth Dodgers lineup. Lefties have a .453 wOBA against Weaver this year, so it’s take your pick between Bellinger and Muncy as the top play. Both have struggled a bit to start 2020, but I’ll side with the splits for Bellinger if you are looking for a one-off, as he still owns a .355 wOBA and .326 ISO against RHP despite his early season struggles. Muncy and Joc Pederson can be added to stacks of Dodger lefties against a pitcher with all sorts of issues right now.
Stack Against A Bad Arm
One of my favorite plays tonight is to stack up all the Toronto bats. I love picking on Martin Perez, and the Blue Jays have power up and down their lineup. Martin Perez owns a 16% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate, and a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 this season. Fire up those Toronto stacks and watch the cash flow in!! Hernandez, Grichuk, and Gurriel are my favorite RHBs with some pop, but don’t be afraid to sneak in a lefty or two at lower ownership as well.
Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Back To Being An Ace?
Clayton Kershaw saw his strikeout rate dip to a career low 23.8% in 2018. However, he bounced back to a 26.8% mark in 2019 and sits at 29.5% this year to go along with a super low 3.6% walk rate. His SIERA and xFIP are both under 3.00. Could he be following the path of Justin Verlander with a late career turnaround? It’s not out of the question, and Kershaw is a HUGE home favorite tonight.
Trent Grisham is one of several Padres barreling more than 12% of their contact
Julio Teheran has been awful through 17.2 innings (4.9 K-BB%, 94.6 Z-Contact%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE). His line drive rate (32.3%) exceeds his ground balls (29%). The 9.17 ERA is a bit much, but his lowest estimator is a 5.67 SIERA. Since last season, LHBs have a .332 wOBA against him, but batters from either side are above a .150 ISO. The Padres have a 123 wRC+ and 20.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. The vast majority of their regular lineup is barreling more than 12% of their contact overall. Slam Diego is quite the appropriate moniker. A great value at the top of the lineup ($3.2K on FanDuel) is likely Trent Grisham (.346 wOBA, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2019) with 14.1% Barrels/BBE this year. Look for the Padres to add to Teheran’s 2020 woes tonight.
The Tigers have a 21 K-BB% vs RHP
Adrian Houser has a 64.6 GB% and 86.3 GB% that’s great from a real life perspective, but his 9.5 K-BB% generally does little for daily fantasy purposes. While six of his 15 fly balls have left the yard, which includes every Barrel he’s allowed this year, only his 3.75 xFIP is well below his 4.36 ERA. In fact, his 4.37 xERA from Statcast matches it perfectly. The Tigers do offer him a bit more upside in this spot though. They have a 21 K-BB% vs RHP this year and Jacoby Jones (broken hand) may have been their best hitter. The projected lineup for Detroit doesn’t contain a single batter above a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and only one with more than 25 PAs above a .301 wOBA. Houser is a reasonable option to keep the ball on the ground and prevent runs if players are looking to go cheap with their pitching needs tonight ($6K FanDuel).
Mike Brosseau has pummeled LHP (.380 wOBA since 2019)
Jordan Montgomery has struck out just 20 of 100 batters this season, but with a 12.7 SwStr% and the top contact profile on the board (82.9 mph EV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE). He’s not going deep into games, throwing more than 81 pitches just once and not since his second start, but a 4.44 ERA is the product of a 63 LOB%. All of his estimators are lower with the most optimistic being Statcast’s 3.52 xERA. However, the Rays have a 26.3 K% and 12.3 BB% vs LHP, so they could drive his pitch count up quickly. RHBs do have a .366 wOBA/.336 xwOBA since Montgomery’s return last year. Mike Brosseau in the cleanup spot has a .380 wOBA and .265 ISO vs LHP since last season. He has a 160 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. The Rays should see quite a bit of the middle of the Yankee bullpen tonight, where they could have some success.
Marcell Ozuna (92.5 mph exit velocity) should excel against whoever Boston throws at him
Whether it’s Robinson Leyer or 31 years old Mike Kickham, with all of 30.1 major league innings, 28.1 of which came back in 2013, there are no adequate words to describe the current state of Boston’s pitching staff. The Braves should be able to handle anything the Red Sox attempt to throw at them tonight. They have several hitters who are above average against batters from either side of the plate. Marcell Ozuna (.372 wOBA, .345 ISO vs LHP since 2019) costs $3.4K on FanDuel and could be considered one of the top overall bats tonight. He has an overall 143 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a lineup leading 92.5 mph exit velocity this year.
The Royals have an 88 wRC+ and 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP
Triston McKenzie struck out just three of 18 Cardinals, walking as many after striking out 10 of 20 Tigers in his major league debut. The team’s third ranked prospect with a 50 Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs, has increased his velocity along with reports that his slider and changeup have evolved to give him workable third and fourth pitches. His 16.3 K-BB% at AA is his only action above A ball, but also the only time he’s been below a 20 K-BB% at any minor league level. This is another nice spot for him in Kansas City. The Royals have an 88 wRC+ and 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Once you get past the top third of the lineup, nobody else is above a .325 wOBA or .185 ISO against RHP since 2019. McKenzie is reasonably priced at $8K on FanDuel.
That's Just Too Cheap
FD pricing makes it tough to get up to Max Scherzer tonight. It’s do-able in cash games, and I’ll make every effort, but once you get past him, we’ve got some question marks on the next tier of starters. Rather than paying for low upside or risk in the mid-tier, I’d rather just go all the way down to a $6,000 Adrian Houser against the Tigers. The Tigers have the highest strikeout rate i the league against right-handed pitching, and Houser has an elite 64% ground ball rate adding to his floor with his strikeout ability against righties giving him some ceiling.
Asher Wojciechowski has allowed 9% Barrels/BBE
Asher Wojciechowski has only completed five innings once over his last four starts. A 12.2 K-BB% is not enough to thwart a 32.1 GB% and 21.2 HR/FB, although he’s allowed two more HRs (seven) than Barrels (five). However, 9% Barrels/BBE is not pretty in any scenario. The long ball hurt him last year as well (17 in 82.1 innings). None of his estimators are below a 4.82 SIERA. The Mets have a 121 wRC+, 21.7 K% and 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP and get a significant park upgrade tonight. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .200 ISO against Wojciechowski since last year, LHBs have a 36 point wOBA advantage (.365). The top half of the Mets’ lineup is predominantly left-handed. Michael Conforto (.390 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is one of the cheaper ones at just $3.1K on FanDuel. Exactly 10% of his batted balls have been Barrels this year and he’s coming off a 157 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Ian Happ is crushing RHP (.354 ISO since 2019) and reasonably priced
Chad Kuhl is clutching a 2.52 ERA that’s more likely to double than remain below three. He has just a 9.3 K-BB%, has struck out just two of his last 43 batters with seven walks and has allowed five HRs with 12.1% Barrels/BBE this year. A .180 BABIP and 100 LOB% are hiding his flaws. He doesn’t have a single estimator below his 4.75 DRA. The Cubs have a 27.8 K% vs RHP, but also a 111 wRC+ and 23.8 HR/FB. Kuhl missed last year due to injury and has faced just 53 LHBs this year with a .301 wOBA against him. However, Statcast pushes that up to a .355 xwOBA with five extra-base hits. It certainly makes some sense, as LHBs have a .365 wOBA against Kuhl in his career. This could be an explosive spot for Ian Happ (.413 wOBA, .354 ISO vs RHP since 2019). He has a lineup leading 174 wRC+ over the last 30 days and only Kyle Schwarber (95 mph) exceeds his exit velocity this season (91.5 mph). Happ is very reasonably priced ($3.1K FanDuel) in this matchup.
A Flyball Righty in a HR Park
The Mets get a massive park upgrade going from Citi Field to Camden Yards. Additionally, Asher Wojciechowski and his 49% flyball rate will be on the hill for the Orioles. Wojciechowski has allowed an ISO of .275 to LHH and .215 to RHH since last year. Stack up the Mets any way you want tonight and expect multiple home runs.
Other tagged players: Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo
LHBs have a .188 ISO against Jon Gray since 2019
Jon Gray is coming off his best start of the season. Five strikeouts was his second most, while a single run allowed in six innings is a season best. It’s still very difficult to find positive signs though. He’s been above an 8.1 SwStr% just twice and below an 89 mph exit velocity also just once. His overall ground ball rate is down nearly 14 points from last season and 10 points from his career rate. The 6.4 K-BB% is just a disaster. Gray’s 5.45 ERA is nearly exactly confirmed by a SIERA, xFIP and xERA all within five points. The Giants have been near average against RHP (97 wRC+) and Gray is now sporting a sizeable split with LHBs owning a .334 wOBA and .188 ISO against him since 2019. Mike Yastrzemski costs $4.3K tonight, but is likely the top bat on the slate. A .360 wOBA and .252 ISO vs RHP since last season will be amplified by the park upgrade. He has a 159 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is barreling 10.6% of his contact this year.
Looking to Coors for pitching tonight (Kevin Gausman 31.6 K%)
Despite the 4.54 ERA this year, the long awaited Kevin Gausman breakout may finally be upon us. He’s struck out a career high 31.6 K% (14.7 SwStr%, 26.3 K-BB%). The HRs are still an issue (10.5% Barrels/BBE, six allowed), but the hard contact is not as much of a concern with such amazing peripherals. His 4.37 xERA is his only estimator above four. In fact, all of his others are below three and a half. The Rockies have a 76 wRC+ and 12.2 HR/FB vs RHP with a 22.3 K%. They have a team 28.2 K% over the last week and were just shut out at home last night. Get through the top half of the lineup and Gausman should have success below that. Normally, it’s a bad idea to advocate for a pitcher at Coors, but Gausman is cheap ($7.1K) and has recorded sixth inning outs in four of his last five outings in tough spots, including one at Coors already. The lack of high end pitchers in strong spots tonight could make daily fantasy players consider paying down in this spot. It may be Coors, but the Rockies were shut out at home by marginal pitching last night.
Aaron Nola has the top strikeout rate on the board (34.8%)
Aaron Nola has struck out at least eight with two runs or less in four of his six starts, only failing to complete seven innings just once in those four starts. The Nationals were one of those victims last time out (7 IIP – 8 K). He has allowed six HRs despite a 50.6 GB%, meaning a quarter of his fly balls have left the yard, which seems a bit fluky as his HR total perfectly matches his Barrels total. The 34.8 K% is best on the board and only his 3.38 FIP and 3.28 xERA are above his 3.00 ERA among estimators. The Nationals don’t strike out a lot (20.1% vs RHP), but it’s not a particularly dangerous lineup. There are a few above average hitters and some with pop, but Juan Soto is the only true All Star bat Nola will be facing tonight. Nola is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($10.2K), but not by much and despite the low upside spot, should be able to generate enough strikeouts to cover his price tag tonight. There are some other high upside spots on the board, but no other pitchers of Nola’s overall quality available tonight.