DFS Alerts
The Old 'Don't Overthink It'
There is so much offense on this slate, that you can go a lot of different directions in multi-entry, but as far as building an optimal lineup, there is no need to look past the underpriced Giants lefties Brandon Belt and Alex Dickerson going into Coors Field. The Rockies Jon Gray has struck out just 13.1% of left-handed batters this season while allowing 40% fly balls and 43% hard hits. Brandon Belt is an extreme fly ball hitter with power, while Dickerson is a solid on-base hitter in a strong lineup position to pick up runs and RBI for the top offense on the slate.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt
That's An Ace
Aaron Nola and Patrick Corbin have the track records and name recognition, but based on matchup and 2020 numbers, Framber Valdez stands out as the top ace on this slate. That is especially true on DraftKings where he comes at a significant discount, but even on FD, I prefer him to Nola and Corbin. Valdez has shown solid strikeout ability at 26% K, with low 5.8% walks and a high 48% ground ball rate adding to his real life effectiveness. He also gets a strong matchup at home against the high strikeout Rangers, making him my top play in both cash games and tournaments.
Really High BABIP
I was pumped to play Houser, but it sounds like Lindblom will start for the Brewers tonight. The Tigers rank 27th in team wOBA, 26th in wRC+, and they have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching this season. Lindblom is cheap across the industry and he’s going to be really popular on this slate. I’d rather get different with bats than fade him in this spot. He has a 6.31 ERA on the season, but his 3.77 xFIP tells another story. He’s been extremely unlucky and should see some positive regression coming his way. He has a 31.3% strikeout rate with a 15.1% swinging strike rate on the season.
Erick Fedde has a -3.9 K-BB% and 90.4 mph exit velocity
Erick Fedde has a 3.57 ERA through 22.2 innings with a -3.9 K-BB% and 90.4 mph aEV. Even with a 54.1 GB% that holds his Barrels/BBE rate below five percent, none of his estimators are even within two runs of that ERA. The Phillies have a 109 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs RHP. Batters from the left side of the plate have a 31 point wOBA advantage on Fedde since last season (.354), but batters from the right side have a 30 point ISO advantage (.179). With a guy who walks more than he whiffs against a well-disciplined lineup, stack them up from either side with Bryce Harper (.368 wOBA, .229 ISO) being one of tonight’s top overall bats. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities tonight. Harper has a 161 wRC+ in the month of August and 15.6% Barrels/BBE for the 2020 season.
Jake Cronenworth has a .526 xwOBA vs RHP
German Marquez really hasn’t pitched well for several starts now, despite allowing more than three earned runs in just one start this season. He’s allowed 21 runs (17 earned) over his last 23 innings, striking out just 17 of 104 with four HRs. The worst of it was facing the Astros at Coors, but he’s also struggled against the Rangers and in Arizona as well. The good news is that he’s been above a 14 SwStr% in three of these four starts, but hard contact continues to plague him (89.3 mph aEV, 4.74 xERA on the year). The Padres already had a 125 wRC+ and 21 HR/FB vs RHP and now have added more LH power. We don’t worry so much about lineup positioning at Coors and considering Marquez’s issues with LHBs (.328 wOBA, .208 ISO since 2019), Jake Cronenworth (188 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP this year) appears to be a good value at $3.3K on FanDuel. His .526 xwOBA actually pushes him up 75 points over actual results against RHP. He’s smoking 14.6% Barrels/BBE this season.
This Ace Or That Ace
Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are top of the line aces with limitless upside in any matchup. They are joined on this slate by two other pitchers with 30% K ability in Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow. It’s tough to imagine all four of these aces failing to put up a big score tonight, and you’re likely to need one no all sites. The top three (Bieber, Cole, Giolito) are all so close, that while Bieber is my preference, I’m willing to let pricing dictate my decision on different sites. This leaves Bieber at the top on DK, with more of a discount on Cole putting him at the top of my list on FD. On Yahoo, there’s a bigger gap to Giolito giving him the case to be SP1.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA & .230 ISO vs Garrett Richards
Garrett Richards started his season well enough, but has struck out just 13 of his last 93 batters with 10 walks and 14 runs in 20.2 innings. This includes an 88.8 mph average exit velocity and 8.6% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t exceeded an 8.8 SwStr% in any of these five starts. On the season, his 5.17 ERA is perfectly matched with a 5.17 SIERA and 5.16 xERA. Coors is not going to help any of this. Since his return last season, batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Richards. Batters from either side are also above a .230 ISO. Trevor Story has been the top Colorado bat in August (139 wRC+) and the only Rockie in the projected lineup above a 90 mph exit velocity this season (91.5 mph). Since last season, he has a .382 wOBA and .262 ISO against RHP. Story is the most expensive bat in the Colorado lineup on FanDuel ($4.5K), but also one daily fantasy players certainly want to roster tonight.
Lucas Giolito has struck out 26 of his last 53 batters
Lucas Giolito was literally unhittable in his last start against the Pirates, but the previous one against Detroit was nearly as good. He’s struck out 26 of his last 53 batters with two walks and just three hits. He did have a couple of rough starts previously, which keep his ERA above three (3.09), with all of his estimators within half a run of actual results. Another positive is that Giolitio has exceeded 100 pitches with no more than 110 in four of his last five starts and with the Chicago bullpen being worked hard over the weekend, we should look for another 100 pitch effort from Giolito again. The Twins certainly have some dangerous bats in the lineup, but with a 25.5 K% vs RHP and 20.2 K-BB% over the last seven days, there may be more upside in this matchup than most people think. In addition, Giolito has a reverse split since last season (LHBs .250 wOBA) and will be facing a predominantly left-handed lineup tonight. Giolito may be a bit behind Shane Bieber overall, but makes for a great pivot for $1.4K less on FanDuel and less weather risk.
Shane Bieber has an 18.6 SwStr% and 51.1 GB%
Shane Bieber (37.8 K-BB%, 18.6 SwStr%, 51.1 GB%) has struck out at least eight and completed six innings in every start. He has just two starts below a 50% ground ball rate. He’s allowed the opposition to score in just three of his seven starts. Even with an 89.3 mph average exit velocity, his 2.42 xERA is best on the board by more than half a run. A 2.51 DRA is the absolute worst of his estimators. Weather cooperating, there’s no doubt Bieber is the top pitcher on the board, especially when considering his matchup. The Royals have just a 90 wRC+ and 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP. There are few dangerous bats in this lineup. A $12K price tag is the highest on FanDuel by more than $1K, but should be worth paying if the weather holds.
Top Tier Offense, Second Tier Price
The Phillies are right up alongside the Padres and Rockies as top offenses tonight, but a couple of the top Phillies bats come with a big discount. Rhys Hoskins has the fly ball skills to overcome the one moderate skill of Erick Fedde, and we’ve finally seen the batted ball variance working out in Hoskins’ favor this season. He’s continued to hit the ball hard and in the air, so the homers were bound to follow. He has four home runs in the last six games and at home against the low strikeouts of Fedde, he’s too cheap for that power upside.
This Lineup Doesn't Scare Anyone
On DraftKings and Yahoo, I think Trevor Williams is in play against the Brewers. The Brewers rank 27th in team wOBA, 27th in wRC+, and have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The projected lineup has six hitters with strikeout rates over 28% against righties this season. Williams has actually been pretty decent against left-handed hitters but has really struggled with right-handed hitters. He should face six left-handed hitters tonight. He has posted a .281 wOBA with a .083 ISO and a 17.7% strikeout rate against lefties. There is nothing safe about playing Williams, but he could do enough to pay off his price tag in this matchup.
Take The Over
The Washington/Philly game is currently sitting at a 10 total, and I don’t think that is high enough. We tend to see the favorites in these games have massive ownership, which will hopefully lower the ownership for Washington. Spencer Howard has been decent against righties, but he’s really struggled with left-handed hitters. In a small sample size, he has a .544 wOBA with a .423 ISO and a 10% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. I think Soto is the top play on the slate, and you can pair him with anyone in the top of this lineup. I do like the lefties more than the righties.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Trea Turner A lot Of Hard Contact
Colten Brewer is going to start, but likely won’t go more than 85 pitches for the Red Sox tonight. He has a 4.41 xFIP with a 21% strikeout rate on the season. He also has a 44.9% hard hit rate. The Red Sox bullpen has been terrible this season and is a mix of lefties and righties. I like the Braves a lot and think the righties have just as much upside as the lefties in this matchup. Acuna, Swanson, Freeman, Ozuna, d’Arnaud, and Markakis all have an ISO over .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna Win And Quality Start Upside
On FanDuel, I think Fried is a great tournament option. He’s cheap enough to fit in a strong stack, and he has the upside to have a good game. Atlanta is one of my top stacks on this slate, so I like his chances to pick up a win. He has a 3.78 xFIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate on the season. He has a .255 wOBA with a .086 ISO and a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. If Martinez misses the game (hit by a pitch yesterday), it’s a big bump to Fried.
Jason Castro scratched on Sunday; Anthony Bemboom will replace and bat 8th
Jason Castro has been scratched Sunday and will be replaced at catcher and in the 8th spot by Anthony Bemboom. The Angels are the highest projected offense in the late window, so those with LAA stacks should make sure to remove Castro from lineups and can pivot over to Bemboom at a C spot.
Other tagged players: Anthony Bemboom