DFS Alerts
SP Value
There is a good mix of pitching in all pricing tiers tonight, but when it comes to a cheap SP2 on DK or looking to spend up on offense on FD, Yusei Kikuchi is my cheap pitcher of choice. I have no argument with using White Sox rookie Dane Dunning as well, but the home matchup against the Rangers gives the edge to Kikuchi with his improved strikeout rate backed up by his increase in velocity. On FD, I’ll save him for tournaments, while he’s cash game playable on DK and Yahoo if you need a cheap SP2.
He's So Good
Pricing is tough enough on FD and Yahoo tonight, that forcing Yu Darvish in may not be entirely necessary. But on DK, there is so much value, that it’s no trouble to spend up at SP1. Darvish is just at another level, continuing to pile up strikeouts with elite control and pitching and picking up six straight quality starts with a total of just four runs allowed in his last 39 innings. The last time he walked more than two batters in a start was June of 2019, and even with the wind blowing out in Wrigley, this is the best pitcher on this slate.
Just Too Cheap
What does Dane Dunning have to do to get a price bump? He threw five no hit innings over the weekend against the Royals, and now he gets to face the same opponent again. The Royals have a mediocre offense that ranks 27th in the league in wOBA against RHP, and Dunning is still far too cheap. He has shown good strikeout ability, and the only knock on him is that the White Sox will be careful with his pitch count. That doesn’t matter much given the salary – Dunning should be more expensive than he is. He’s worth a look in all formats.
The Clear SP1
Darvish stands as the clear top pitcher on the board. The Cardinals have a patient but relatively underwhelming lineup, and that likely won’t cause too many issues for Darvish given that his command has been elite for the better part of a year now. He owns a 5% walk rate and 31% strikeout rate this season and should be in fine form in what should be a spectacular head-to-head matchup against Jack Flaherty. Both pitchers are fine options, but Darvish is the clear top play.
Under The Radar Stack #2
This is a great slate to get creative with some GPP stacks. Ownership will be concentrated around the top offenses, but there are some under the radar groups that could surprise. My second is the Mets, who match up against the ghost of Jake Arrieta. The Philadelphia starter did not make it out of the second inning in his last start. His strikeout rate and overall numbers have been on a rapid decline for three seasons now. The Mets come in on a high after a come from behind, walk-off win over the Yankees on Thursday, and their lineup matches up well against Arrieta. They rank in 4th in team wOBA against RHP this year, while Arrieta simply can’t miss bats right now. I’ll load up on the power from both sides of the plate. Conforto and Alonso are elite options.
Other tagged players: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo Under The Radar Stack #1
This is a great slate to get creative with some GPP stacks. Ownership will be concentrated around the top offenses, but there are some under the radar groups that could surprise. My first is the Giants, who have generally been a pleasant surprise offensively as a team this year. They rank a respectable 11th in team wOBA against RHP with a below average team strikeout rate, and they get to face an inconsistent pitcher in Taylor Clarke. Clarke owns a 5.25 xFIP in his major league sample size, and he allows a ton of hard contact. His solid surface numbers this year are almost entirely BABIP-induced, and regression is coming. Fire up the lefties in the top half of this order. Belt, Dickerson, and Yaz make for a great GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski A Cheap Potential Dong
Bruce so far this season has been absolutely crushing RHP. On the season, he owns a .521 ISO and .450 wOBA vs RHP and he draws a matchup vs Sanchez who has been really had this season giving up a .403 wOBA and .254 ISO vs lefities. This is a great matchup for Bruce here and his price is way too low over on DK sitting at under 3k. Just throw him into your lineup and way for the home run notification shortly after the game starts.
The Price is Right
When it comes to stats here, there’s very little reason to roster Upton today. He’s been terrible this season owning a .081 ISO and a .182 wOBA vs RHP, but as a real dummy I know says “we live in the world of a salary cap” and he’s only 2.1k on DK where there really isn’t a ton of good pitching options today. Clevinger really hasn’t been great so far this season with a .228 wOBA and .276 ISO vs RHP and Upton is on a bit of a hot streak averaging around 10 DK points per game over his last 6 games. Just load up on him and hope for the best.
A Clear Mispricing
I don’t understand this price tag at all. Alonso Has been hitting bombs since he came into the league and owns a .316 ISO and .373 wOBA vs LHP. I know that Alonso isn’t having the same year he had last year, but he comes in at 3k today going up against Happ who only owns a 14% K rate, a 58.1% FB%, and a 35.5% Hard hit rate vs righties so far this season. He has not been good vs. righties since the beginning of last season and this is a great spot for Alonso to go yard here.
Best Cheaper Option
While Heany might not be considered a “Value Play” on some sites, this really isn’t that big of a slate and there really aren’t many pitching options I’m interested in. That being said a great boom/bust spot for Heany. He draws a matchup against the Padres who are stacked, but have a few really high strikeout bats. Heany’s real problem is with power which could cause him trouble vs this lineup, he’s a well above average K rate pitcher since he’s been in the league and if he can avoid the long ball in this matchup he has a chance to put up a great score for GPPs.
Best Boom or Bust Pitcher on the Slate
It’s a weird slate today for pretty much all sites, but pitching at the cheaper end really isn’t great. Duffy has been a pretty good real life pitcher so far this year and an actual good DFS pitcher so far. He draws a very tough matchup against the team with the highest wOBA and wRC+ against LHP, but where there is power there is generally strikeouts and this is absolutely the case. The projected lineup for the White Sox has 4 bats in it with over a 25% K rate against LHP on the season and Duffy owns a 27.6% K rate against RHP so far this season. His price is more accounting for his downside that his upside, so he makes a great play in GPPs today.
Still An Ace
Clayton Kershaw has rebounded back to ace status this season, although the strikeout rate is artificially high due to one big start. But even if we remove the 11-K game from his ledger, this is still a pitcher with above average strikeouts and elite control and consistency that are worth paying for. Salary is not hard to come by at all on this slate, and Kershaw is the only pitcher with no real question marks. There are other pitchers that can match his upside, so he’s not a lock button in tournaments, but certainly the cash game starting point and a top tournament target.
Load Up These Righties
The Blue Jays trio of right-handed outfielders all come with big power and an ideal matchup against the low strikeouts of Martin Perez. Since the start of 2019, we’re looking at ISO’s of .252, .287 and .324 against lefties with hard hits rates of 40%, 52% and 42%. Meanwhile, Perez is allowing a .209 ISO to righties with 17% strikeouts this season.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk Can't Pass On This Salary
This slate is full of goofy salaries on DK that will allow you spend up on absolutely anyone you want. On the pitching side, there is merit to going double aces with Kershaw/Clevinger, but if you’d rather spend up on your bats, you can’t overlook the mis-price on Taijuan Walker. It’s not that Walker is amazing, but this is at least an average starter who is priced as a reliever. Walker’s skills put him firmly in the second tier of pitchers who are all priced in the $7-$9k range. Walker is a pitcher with decent 21% strikeouts and the ability to throw 100 pitches, and he faces a Red Sox team with the 5th highest strikeout rate in the league against righties, while ranking 26th in ISO and wOBA.
Risk/Reward SP2
There is not a ton to leave in the realm of cheap pitchers tonight, but Duffy profiles as a reasonable risk/reward option in GPP formats. His advanced metrics look solid with a nice bump in his strikeouts and swinging strikes so far in 2020, as Duffy is striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. The White Sox are a dangerous, power-laden offense, particularly against lefties — but there are also some strikeouts in this lineup. Duffy is the epitome of a risk/reward value, and I’ll take some GPP shots on him given the short slate.