DFS Alerts
Mike Brosseau has a .276 ISO against LHP since last season
With RHBs having a .321 wOBA and .204 ISO against John Means since last season, Mike Brosseau, potentially in the leadoff spot, looks like a strong value. In 105 PAs against LHP since last year, he has a .387 wOBA and .276 ISO. Brosseau also has an overall 167 wRC+ this season and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Means has started four games and pitched a total of 10.2 innings. He’s allowed 12 runs and four HRs, striking out just eight of 48 batters.
Sixto Sanchez had a 10.6 SwStr% and 58.8 GB% in his debut
Sixto Sanchez struck out four of the 21 Nationals he faced in his major league debut with a 10.6 SwStr% without a walk. He allowed two HRs on seven fly balls, but his other 10 batted balls all on the ground. Sanchez is the second ranked prospect in the Miami organization with a 55 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. In 18 starts at AA last year, he struck out only 23.6%, but walked just 4.6%. Minor league strikeout rates aren’t enormous, but the heater averaged 99 mph in his debut and the changeup is projected to be special. He faces one of the best offenses in the league (123 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs RHP), but in an extremely negative run environment. As top pitching choices drop off this slate, Sanchez is a top prospect with some upside, who remains available at a low price ($6.6K FanDuel).
Nelson Cruz is still crushing LHP (.494 wOBA, .476 ISO since 2019)
Matthew Boyd may be starting to get the ball rolling, at least on the strikeout front. He’s up to 24.1% (27.2% over his last five starts) and didn’t even allow a HR for only the second time this year last time out. We’re going to have to live with the HRs (66 last two years, eight this year), but the 16.1 K-BB% is still more than a full touchdown below last year’s rate and that’s where he really gets any fantasy value from. The good news for him tonight is that the Twins are not at full strength and have just a 7.1 HR/FB vs LHP. However, they also have just a 19.1 K% against southpaws and he will likely have to face Nelson Cruz, who has a .494 wOBA and .476 ISO against LHP since last season. Cruz is probably the top bat on a short slate and still likely a solid value at $4.3K on FanDuel. He’s generated Barrels on 16.7% of his contact overall this season with a 177 wRC+.
Top Bat On The Slate
Power righties are absolutely in play against Boyd given his massive home run issues, and Cruz is my top overall bat on the slate. I think he’ll take Boyd deep tonight. He owns a 14% walk rate, .444 OBP, .471 ISO, 1.258 OPS, and .486 wOBA against LHP since the start of 2019, and that is good enough for top overall status on this suddenly small slate.
Core Value
s for Washington’s bats, the lefties would be the first place to look. LHBs have tagged Howard for a .423 batting mark and a .549 wOBA in his brief MLB sample, and Howard profiles as a traditional splits RHP. Soto would be the obvious first choice, while Adam Eaton and Asdrubal Cabrera are more cost controlled options in decent lineup spots. They are nothing special, but the salary relief is welcome on this slate. That has earned Eaton core play status, as he has a solid .354 wOBA and .200 ISO against RHP so far this season.
Affordable SP2
You might not know much about Sixto Sanchez right now, but the future is bright. The name alone is worth massive value. Who doesn’t want to roster Sixto Sanchez? Sanchez is a quality prospect with a BLAZING fastball, and he touched 100+ MPH several times in his major league debut. His average fastball velocity sat around 98.5 MPH, and he has a quality changeup and slider as well. The issue is that Sanchez has made the leap all the way from Double-A ball to the major leagues, and you never know how these things will go. The good news is that he had solid command (103 K, 21 BB) in 114 innings at the minor league level a year ago, and command translates at any level. He does not profile as a high walk pitcher despite the velocity. The Mets are a beatable lineup, and Snachez is the cheapest pitcher on the DK slate. As wacky as it sounds, I think he’s the logical SP2 pairing with Scherzer tonight. The salary savings are huge, and it’s not like we are missing out on other quality arms.
Top SP On A Thin Slate
I could probably just tell you to play Max Scherzer tonight and move on. He’s an extremely obvious play on FanDuel where you only get one pitcher. He’s an extremely obvious play on DraftKings where you need two pitchers, because it’s hard to find one other pitcher to love tonight — let alone two. For the sake of argument, we’ll at least dig into some numbers. The surface numbers aren’t quite as good as we are accustomed to with Scherzer, as he owns a 4.31 ERA through his first six starts. However, he has been the victim of a .351 opposing BABIP (that is 61 points above his career average) and an 18.5% HR/FB rate (that is 8% above his career average). That suggests he has simply been a bad luck victim so far. The strikeouts and swinging strikes are still there, albeit down just slightly from a year ago. His velocity has been in line with his career marks, as well. The only major red flag has been his elevated walk rate and hard contact rate, but I’m not massively concerned about that over a 31 inning sample size. If there were a lot of other quality options on the slate tonight, I could make a case for fading Scherzer. He’s your top option.
Cheap 1b on DK
Sorry if a lot of this is just a regurgitation of Shaw, but it’s pretty much the same senario. We don’t have a huge sample size for Mazza in the majors, but judging from his minor league numbers he doesn’t seem like a guy that is going to be a good big league pitcher. Additionally, he really doesn’t have an out pitch against lefties which plays in perfectly for Tellez. Tellez is a solid bat going up against RHP and owns a good .218 ISO since the beginning of last season. He is priced at a basement price of 2.9k. This is a clear don’t overthink its spot and just play one of the cheapest bats in one of the highest total lineups.
Top Cheap Play Yahoo
I know that Ryu is a solid pitcher, but this price tag does not make sense to me. Weather or not you beleive that lefty mashers exist, you can’t argue with JD’s results vs lefties. Since the beginning of last season he owns a .438 ISO and a .514 wOBA vs LHP. They are playing in a solid hitters ballpark and he priced at just $15 over on Yahoo. He’s pretty much a lock and load there and a fantastic play on other sites as a 1 off.
Cheap bat with some pop
We don’t have a huge sample size for Mazza in the majors, but judging from his minor league numbers he doesn’t seem like a guy that is going to be a good big league pitcher. Additionally, he really doesn’t have an out pitch against lefties which plays in perfectly for Shaw. Shaw Hasn’t been great since the beginning of last season, but Mazza really isn’t the type of pitcher that is going to strike out lefties at a high rate. Shaw has a lot of power which is evident by his 57.1% hard hit rate against righties this season and his big problem is striking out which Mazza really isn’t projected to be great at vs lefties. He’s priced way too low on both sites and is likely batting 3rd in the lineup.
Cheap Arm with a lot of Talent
We’ve only seen one outing from Sanchez so far and it was entirely mediocre, but its pretty clear to see that this kid is going to be good and he is drastically underpriced on this slate. In Sanchez first outing he was throwing an average of 99 miles per hour and has a decent pitch mix to go along with the zero walks he had in his first outing. Even though he only went 66 pitches in his first outing, he will likely get a longer leash in this one and at his price tag, that will be more than good enough.
Best Point Per Dollar Pitcher
While I generally don’t like to roster Rays pitchers because you never know when their going to get a short leash, I’m making an exception for Yarbrough today. Yarbrough hasn’t been great so far this season, but he gets a match up vs a Baltimore lineup that doesn’t really have many good bats and strikes out at an above league average rate vs LHP. Yarbrough owns a 20% k rate since the beginning of last season and pitched 97 pitches in his last outing meaning that he is fully stretched out. Add in that they are playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark today and there aren’t a whole lot of other great pitcher on the slate and Yarbrough immediately just to the top of my list.
If Lefty Mashers Existed, Would They Look Like Him?
I expect Ryan Yarbrough to be somewhat popular today as people love picking on the Orioles. But this Baltimore offense is better than I think people give it credit for. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Orioles have the fifth LOWEST strikeout rate in the Majors at just 20.1 K%. I like this spot for the Orioles in tournaments, specifically guys like Renato Nunez. Nunez leads the team with a .241 ISO against left-handed pitching and while I consider Yarbrough a slightly above-average pitcher, I think this is a spot where Nunez and the Orioles can surprise some people.
Matchup Appeal
I am not a huge fan of Chris Bassitt’s average 20.1 K%, but he doesn’t walk many batters and has limited opponents so far to just a 0.81 HR/9 ratio thus far. More importantly, he faces a Rangers team that has the second worst wRC+ as a team against right-handed pitching. We don’t have a ton of quality options at pitching today and if you wanted to chase the matchup, I don’t think Bassitt is a crazy tournament option.
Jake Cronenworth has a .526 xwOBA vs RHP
The Padres are a dangerous offense (120 wRC+, 20.6 HR/FB vs RHP). Despite Walker’s success (15.2 K-BB%, 4.00 ERA), there are some red flags (91.7 Z-Contact%, 7.4 SwStr%) and LHBs have torched him for a .380 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) since returning from injury. The sample size is just above 50 batters. In another small, but relevant sample, Jake Cronenworth has just 65 PAs against RHP, but has punished them with a 189 wRC+ and .328 ISO. If you’re expecting those numbers to include a lot of luck, Statcast gives him credit for a .526 xwOBA, 84 points higher than actual results. Cronenworth still costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight.