DFS Alerts
Punt Arm Feels Too Cheap
Dunning at $4,500 is my favorite YOLO punt of the day. This is someone who just fanned seven batters in his debut, granted it was against the Tigers. Dunning missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery and skipped Triple-A ball, but he fanned 300 batters over 266 innings in the Minors, so this is someone with massive strikeout upside. The Royals rank just 13th in K% against right-handed pitching so this isn’t as good of a matchup as he had with the Tigers, but he can easily pay off his price tag if he can go 80+ pitches and avoid the long ball. I love him as a punt.
Gross Value Against Gross Pitcher
I don’t expect the Brewers to be overly popular on this slate despite their 5.3 implied team today. I personally don’t think highly of this Brewers offense, but Brault has been so bad that there’s merit to attacking him here even with a bad Brewers lineup. If Braun plays, my preferred stack would be Ryan Braun / Christian Yelich / Keston Hiura / Jedd Gyorko / Avisail Garcia. If Braun doesn’t play, we may see Luis Urias lead off and be a viable punt option in your Brewers stack. You can even YOLO with anyone at the bottom of this order like Lord Jacob Nottingham at min price to fill your catcher spot on DraftKings. So yes, I know this stack is gross, but it’s cheap.
Ready For His Normal Workload
The Rays were cautious with Snell to start the year, but he appears poised for his usual workload of around 100 pitches moving forward. His velocity and swing and miss stuff appear to be back to normal, and the price tag still feels slightly discounted in DFS. Hop aboard in a favorable matchup against the Marlins, as Snell should dominate this afternoon.
Great Matchup For A Budding Ace
Brandon Woodruff had a swinging strike rate of 10.4% in 2018 and 11.6% in 2019. That mark is up to 12.9% in 2020. He has very good stuff — and a great matchup against the Pirates to boot. Woodruff does not get the national recognition pitching in Milwaukee, but he is quickly turning into an ace caliber starter. He is one of my top options today.
Top Offense On The Slate
Find a way to get some exposure to the Nationals’ offense today. Soto is my first choice. The Washington star has a great matchup today against Zack Godley, who has allowed a .389 wOBA to left-handed hitters so far in 2020 (and has been equally bad against righties, too). Soto owns a .497 wOBA and .353 ISO against RHP this year, with a 17% walk rate and an 11% strikeout rate. The Washington offense is locked in right now, and Eaton is also a very nice value on this Sunday slate.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton One of the Top Plays
Any time Story is facing a left-handed pitcher in Coors, you have to give him strong consideration. Tonight he gets to face left-handed pitcher, Adrian Morejon who is a 21 year old pitcher with very little MLB experience pitching in Coors Field. He and his teammate Nolan Arenado are two of the best plays on the slate.
Contrarian Option With Coors Field on the Slate
With the Padres and Rockies playing in Coors Field tonight, getting Juan Soto and the Nationals stack at lower ownership could be a great play tonight. Soto has a .426 wOBA and a.320 ISO against right-handed pitching and has a great matchup against Chris Mazza tonight in Boston.
The Clear Saturday Ace
This should be a really fun matchup between two ascending pitchers. Dylan Bundy has been dominant at times this year and has fantastic peripherals with a 29% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. His SIERA and xFIP both sit in the mid-threes. He already has 18 strikeouts and two walks in two solid performances against this young Seattle lineup this season. As Cheese and I have discussed many times in this space, sometimes it only takes a change of scenery to see a pitcher blossom. Bundy was always regarded as a great prospect, but he could never put it together in Baltimore. That seems to be changing in his new home, and he is the clear SP1 choice on this slate.
Way Too Cheap on DK/Yahoo
Given the way DraftKings usually prices up Coors bats, it shocks me that Matt Kemp is priced at $2,900 against a LHP. He hasn’t been awful this year, always profiles better against lefties, and smacked a home run on Friday. He needs to be in your DK lineups, and he’s also a great value at $12 on Yahoo. He’s less necessary on FanDuel but isn’t exactly “too expensive” over there, either.
Key Value Piece
The Nationals went off last night and have a good matchup today against Mazza. Their lineup provides the opportunity for us to find some value. Adam Eaton owns a .358 wOBA and .200 ISO and carries a very reasonable price tag on every site. He’s a core value for me on this slate.
Top Hitter on the Slate
Manny Machado – The Padres are elite targets as a powerful offense at Coors Field facing a pitcher with a career 16% strikeout rate. This could go very, very wrong for Mr. Antonio Senzatela. The Colorado starter has allowed a .338 wOBA to RHBs and a .340 wOBA to LHBs in his career, so he is an equal opportunity pitcher. Manny Machado should realistically be the most expensive hitter on the slate given the matchup and the way he has been swinging the bat of late. Machado has five home runs in his last six games and eleven hits in his last four. The baseball looks like a beach ball coming up to him at the plate right now, and his numbers are elite all the way around. He is my favorite hitter on the slate and has the best PlateIQ score on the night. Find a way to prioritize him in your builds. I also like Cronenworth as a key option, as he has very good numbers against RHP and fills an ugly second base position.
Other tagged players: Jake Cronenworth Potential Lead-Off Hitter in Smash Spot
Derek Holland is definitely someone you can stack against given his home run issues (he’s had a HR/9 ratio of over 2.0 in three of his last four seasons), but I am not confident in this Brewers offense as a whole. The one bat I do like is Ryan Braun, especially if he’s leading off. He led the team with a .288 ISO last season against lefties and is someone I’m even fine with for optimal lineups.
A Tier Of His Own
For me, Scherzer is in a tier of his own on this slate. Yes, he’s priced up at $10,600 on FanDuel and $11,000 on DraftKings on a slate with Coors Field, but take a look at the names below him. Zack Wheeler, Zac Gallen, Kyle Hendricks, Dustin May – these names aren’t on the same level of pitching as Scherzer. Scherzer’s 32.1 K% stands out here above these other names. Some may argue his matchup against the Red Sox isn’t a good one for Scherzer and I would agree it’s not ideal going into Fenway, But this Red Sox offense hasn’t been one to fear this season. They have the 11th highest K% against right-handed pitching this season, a below-average team wRC+ of just 92 and rank just 18th in team ISO. In other words, they are a slightly below-average offense with slightly above-average strikeout upside. I love Max in all formats, on all sites today.
Under-Owned GPP Stack
All the ownership is going to go to the game at Coors Field tonight, and that gives us the opportunity for some leverage stacks in GPP formats. I will highlight the Angels in a favorable matchup against Margevicius and the Mariners. The Angels boast some nice RH power in their lineup, and I expect those hitters to take advantage. You can also get options at any salary range. Trout and Rendon are the expensive targets, while Pujols lands nicely in the mid-range. Assuming he starts, Justin Upton is inconsistent, but he’s basically free and is always capable of getting a hold of a long ball.
Affordable SP2
Well, I wrote this yesterday before things got canceled, so let’s try take two. You might not know much about Sixto Sanchez right now, but the future is bright. Sanchez is a quality prospect with a BLAZING fastball, and he touched 100+ MPH several times in his major league debut. His average fastball velocity sat around 98.5 MPH, and he has a quality changeup and slider as well. He is facing a beatable Rays lineup tonight, and while it’s not quite as exciting as the matchup against the Mets would have been last night, the salary savings that he provides are valuable on a slate that includes a lot of high-end bats.