DFS Alerts
Michael Fulmer has allowed six HRs in 11.2 innings
Michael Fulmer has started four games and pitched a total of 11.1 innings, facing 56 batters. He has struck out 10, walked five and allowed six HRs (12 ERs) with a 92 mph exit velocity with 15% of his batted balls considered Barrels. His velocity is down 2.9 mph from the last time he pitched in 2018. The Cubs should continue the path of punishment against Fulmer today. Batters from either side of the plate have done serious damage against Fulmer with the 22 RHBs he’s faced generating a .668 wOBA and .714 ISO. Willson Contreras has just a 97 wRC+ this season, but has been hitting the ball hard (91 mph exit velocity). He has a .237 ISO (.356 wOBA) against RHP since last season and costs just $2.7K on FanDuel tonight.
Dinelson Lamet has a 34.1 K% with a 1.6 mph increase in velocity this season
Dinelson Lamet has been plain fire this season. He’s struck out 34.1% of the batters he’s faced with a 14.7 SwStr% and 1.6 mph increase in velocity (97.7). While estimators rightfully see his 1.89 ERA as unsustainable, due to a .203 BABIP and 86.3 LOB%, only his 3.74 xFIP reaches above the low threes. Even folding in the 90.3 mph exit velocity only gets him to a 3.14 xERA. Lamet finds himself in a strong spot tonight, against what should be a strikeout prone Seattle lineup. Only two batters in Seattle’s projected lineup are below a 23 K% vs RHP since last season. There are few bats for Lamet to fear in this lineup. He has virtually no split, with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .290 wOBA since last year. Priced at $9.3K on FanDuel, Lamet could project as a better value than some higher priced arms.
The Brewers have a 67 wRC+ and 27.6 K% vs RHP this year
Sonny Gray has an 11.5 SwStr% that does not really justify his 34.9 K% this season, but he’s still done quality work, even if his strikeout rate drops five or so points. His 3.19 SIERA and 3.63 xERA are his only estimators above three. Considering the matchup, he may be the top pitcher on the slate. The Brewers may not necessarily be the lineup his strikeout rate regresses against as they own a 27.6% rate against RHP with a 67 wRC+. Keston Huira and Christian Yelich are the only batters in the lineup above even a 90 wRC+ overall this year. A $10.2K price tag makes Gray the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but potentially the top value and perhaps even the top overall arm in this inviting matchup.
The White Sox have hammered LHP (168 wRC+, 30.2 HR/FB)
Steven Brault more than doubled his previous season high with 80 pitches last time out and has not allowed a run in any of his four starts this season. Don’t be fooled though. He’s walked seven of the 47 batters he’s faced with a 5.7 SwStr% that does not support his 19.2 K%. The good news is that 60% of his contact has been on the ground (3.3% Barrels/BBE), helping him to generate a 4.41 xERA that’s in line with his 4.28 DRA, still well above his 3.00 ERA, though everything falls apart if the modest strikeout rate doesn’t hold. Meanwhile, the White Sox have destroyed LHP (168 wRC+, 30.2 HR/FB). RHBs have a .340 wOBA, .167 ISO against Brault since last season. Tim Anderson (.421 wOBA, .275 ISO vs LHP since 2019) may be one of the top bats on the slate for one of the best offenses. He costs $4K on FanDuel, but has a team leading overall 188 wRC+ with a 9.1 mph exit velocity this season.
LHBs have smashed Matt Harvey since last year (.404 wOBA, .269 ISO)
Matt Harvey sat at 93.5 mph (same as last year), allowing two HRs, but also striking out four of the 15 Reds he faced with a 13 SwStr%. Enough to get him another start in St Louis, even if he didn’t generate a single ground ball with a 96.2 mph aEV (two Barrels). He hasn’t had an exit velocity below 90 mph since 2017. The Cardinals have had patience (10.5 BB%) without power (11.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. LHBs have a .404 wOBA and .269 ISO against Harvey since last season. Tommy Edman (.323 wOBA, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is a top of the order bat below $3K on FanDuel. While you probably want to stack a patient team without power against Harvey, Edman should be in the middle of any rallies tonight and represents a great value bat.
Luis Castillo has underlying numbers (16.1 SwStr%, 57.5 GB%) far better than results
Luis Castillo has allowed at least three runs in six innings or less in each of his last four starts (not all earned) and it’s completely mind boggling considering the underlying numbers. The 30.3 K% (16.1 SwStr%) is elite and he’s had a double digit SwStr% in each start. The walk rate (8.4%) is average, but the contact profile is also elite. He’s garnered a 57.5 GB% with a board best 84.8 mph aEV (4.1% Barrels/BBE). How in the world does he have a .403 BABIP? He even has just a 15.1 LD%. A 2.83 xERA is well below his 4.44 ERA. In fact, only his 4.17 DRA is above four among his estimators. This is going to turn around. The Brewers have a 67 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The projected lineup has just two batters above a 90 wRC+ overall this year. Just the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.1K) and nearly $3K below Bieber, Castillo is a high upside alternative to higher priced pitchers tonight.
Aces, Aces
Shane Bieber has been better than Gerrit Cole so far this season, but most of it can be traced to the first two starts, where Cole took awhile to get going, with Bieber coming out of the gates on fire. I absolutely love both of these aces, and either one can put up a slate winning score at any time. In choosing between the two, I’ll simply take the cheaper price tag on Cole, but in tournaments, both are ideal plays with endless upside.
Go Right Back Here Tonight
The Cubs were a top offense on Monday, and this is another night to go right back to them. Even at his best, Spencer Turnbull is beatable with left-handed bats, and in his last two starts, he has been nowhere near his best with an awful 3:8 K:BB ratio. Kyle Schwarber is too cheap for his power, with a .289 ISO against righties since the start of 2019.
Shane Bieber has struck out at least eight in every start
Shane Bieber may have already collected the 2020 Cy Young. A 39.3 K-BB%. Let’s repeat that again for emphasis: a 39.3 K-BB%! He’s struck out at least eight in every start and has completed at least six innings in each as well. And he has a 51.3 GB% too. Despite 44.9% of his contact being above a 95 mph exit velocity (worst on the board), he still has the best xERA on the slate (2.31) by more than half a run. Despite key injuries, the Twins still produce a dangerous and powerful lineup, but one with quite a few strikeouts in the bottom half and batters from either side of the plate are below a .275 wOBA and .160 ISO against Bieber since last season. The most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel board ($12K) by $1K is also the best tonight and should thrive even in a potentially difficult matchup.
Ian Happ has been the Cubs' best hitter this year (161 wRC+)
Spencer Turnbull looked like he was building on a solid rookie season through his first couple of outings, but he’s walked 10 with just seven strikeouts over his last 13.2 innings since. He now has just a 5.6 K-BB% on the season with his 3.62 ERA being driven by the fact that he still hasn’t allowed a HR. The 52.2 GB% has helped with that, but 4.4% Barrels/BBE still seems fortunate considering the 91.2 mph aEV. Every non-FIP estimators is well more than half a run above his ERA. The Cubs are not going to be a good matchup for him despite the high strikeout rate (28.2% vs RHP). They are a patient bunch (11.1 BB% vs RHP) with power (21.3 HR/FB vs RHP) and those traits still exist throughout the lineup, even without Kris Bryant present. Ian Happ has been the Cubs’ best hitter this year (161 wRC+), taking over Bryant’s leadoff spot. He also has some tremendous numbers against RHP since last season (.412 wOBA, .343 ISO), while Turnbull has struggled a bit with LHBs in his career (.331 wOBA). At a reasonable price ($3.3K on FanDuel), Happ could be one of the day’s top overall bats, getting on base and scoring a few runs, along with the power he supplies.
The Rangers have a 66 wRC+ and 19.9 K-BB% vs LHP
Jesus Luzardo pitched a season high 6.1 shutout innings with a season high seven strikeouts against the Diamondbacks last time out. While the walk rate is a bit high at 9.7%, he hasn’t issued more than two in any start yet and has generated whiffs on 13.4% of his pitches. A 4.25 SIERA, 5.66 DRA and 4.26 xERA are all a bit pessimistic about his 3.67 ERA, but we should consider that more a description than a prediction of things to come, as Luzardo may just be beginning to meet his potential. The Rangers add significant upside to this matchup. They have just a 66 wRC+ and 19.9 K-BB% vs LHP this year. While the top half of the lineup may contain some dangerous bats against LHP, the bottom half is full of outs and most of the lineup is likely to be strikeout prone. On a pitching heavy short slate, Luzardo could be a bargain in a great spot with the fifth lowest price tag on the board ($7.7K on FanDuel).
Ryan Castellani has a 90+ mph average exit velocity in all three starts
Ryan Castellani was smoked for five runs (two HRs) by the Astros last time out, striking out just one of the 24 batters he faced. It wasn’t hard to see coming actually. Castellani has never exceeded a 22 K% or 14 K-BB% in his professional career, but did exceed a 90 mph aEV in each of his first two outings, a feat he accomplished a third time against the Astros. The 93.1 mph aEV is worst on the board, generating a slate worst 5.52 xERA as well. While the Diamondbacks have shown little power against LHP (9.7 HR/FB), they’ve been very contact prone (20.6 K%). RHBs have a .356 wOBA against Castellani. It’s a small sample and you might want to blame Coors, but that would be wrong, as Statcast pushes RHBs up to a .403 xwOBA against him. Let’s look at Starling Marte here. Even if Castellani’s numbers are nowhere near stable yet, Marte has hit same handed pitching well (.369 wOBA, .196 ISO since 2019) and should be in the middle of any Arizona rallies, generally in the third spot in the lineup. He costs $3.2K on FanDuel and has a 133 wRC+ overall this year.
Nick Castellanos has video game stats vs LHP (.563 wOBA, .625 ISO since 2019)
Brett Anderson struck out five of 22 Twins last time out, a mark he reached twice, but never exceeded in 31 starts last year and both times facing more than 22 batters. The 11.5 SwStr% is also a mark he hasn’t exceeded since last May, so we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance here. His 18.4 K% is still the third lowest mark on the board. What you should expect is lots of ground balls (67.3%), which has allowed him to hold batters to 5.5% Barrels/BBE despite a board high 54.5% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. As such though, his 5.45 xERA is well above his 3.71 ERA and additional estimators (3.66 SIERA, 3.96 DRA). The Reds have been a contact prone offense (20.9 K%) with power (15.5 HR/FB) vs LHP. There is a lot of RH power in this lineup and RHBs have a lesser 52.6 GB% against Anderson since last year (.327 wOBA, .156 ISO). Nick Castellanos may be the top overall bat on the board tonight. He’s been raking since leaving the Tigers and has a 144 wRC+ with 20% Barrels/BBE this year. In 180 PAs against southpaws since last season, he’s put up video game numbers (.563 wOBA, .625 ISO). At $4.2K on FanDuel, Castellanos should be worth paying up for tonight.
Trevor Bauer has increased the spin rate on all of his pitches
Trevor Bauer has become quite the spin master under the tutelage of Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball, who now serves as a pitching coordinator for the Reds. The spin rate is up significantly on all of his pitches this year and the whiff rate has increased on all but his curve. That said, the 13.2 SwStr% doesn’t fully support his 43.6 K%, but it is in line with his mark two years ago when he generated a 30.8 K. Just as importantly, his walk rate is a career low 7.4%, while his 86.7 mph aEV is more than a full mph below his career best 87.8 mph mark two years back as well. In summation, he’s doing some unsustainable things right now (.140 BABIP, 100 LOB%, 2.2% Barrels/BBE), but there’s visible evidence of improvement there too. With a bullpen that put in some work on Sunday, Bauer should maintain his generally heavy workload in a great matchup in Milwaukee. The Brewers have a 66 wRC+ with a 19.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel by a full $2K tonight, but with Flaherty and Maeda (career high pitch count last time out) having workload concerns tonight, Bauer should be worth the pay up in a high upside spot.
Endurance Adds To Floor And Upside
In an era when starting pitchers are throwing less and less, Lance Lynn continues to buck that trend with an incredible 30 straight starts of 100+ pitches. It’s not just that’s he’s throing a lot, the skills are also at ace level. He’s always been good against righties, with a 35% K rate over the past two seasons, and he’s been bringing up his K’s against lefties as well. With a right-handed heavy opponent with only one real power threat from the left side, Lynn fits on all sites in all formats tonight.