DFS Alerts
Low Owned Upside Stack
While the Marlins may not be as good of a team as their record shows and may not be a good lineup, they are in a great spot today. I’m not very happy about the park, but the matchup really stands out today. Kyle Wright hasn’t had too many starts in the majors so far, but the ones he’s had have been something that nightmares have been made of. So far in the majors he has over a 20% HR/FB rating and an xFIP over 5.5. He is walking guys at a 16.9% rate this season and giving up hard contact at a close to 50% clip. The Marlins aren’t a great hitting lineup, but there is some power in Aguilar, Dickerson, Anderson, and Villar, and the lineup walks at a decent rate meaning there will be
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Jonathan Villar
The Tigers have a league high 31.2 K% vs RHP
Aaron Civale struck out just five of 26 batters with a 5.1 SwStr% in his third start after nine in each of his first two. It was his second time out against the White Sox and he decided to go with more of a four pitch mix, dropping his changeup to 2% and throwing more fastballs, his only pitch under a 22% whiff rate this season (7.4%). He still proceeded to throw seven innings of one run ball, generating a season high 55 GB%. Walking just two batters, he’s allowed just 2.0% Barrels/BBE this season. His .227 xwOBA and 2.01 xERA are both lowest on the board. While the Tigers have smoked LHP, they have just an 81 wRC+ and league high 31.2 K% vs RHP. Without Cron, they have virtually nobody in the lineup with a history of hitting RHP well and Civale has held batters from either side of the plate below a .290 wOBA & xwOBA since debuting. While we can’t confidently call Civale the top pitcher on a loaded board at this point, we can potentially see him being the top value at $9.6K on FanDuel. He’s in a high upside spot with one of the best chances of producing a Quality Start and a Win.
The Pivot Stack off of Coors
While the very clear stack of the day is in Coors, a decent pivot with a lot of upside is Oakland. While they are playing in a historically bad hitters ballpark in SF, this season it has been about neutral and its going to be hotter than normal there today. The A’s get a matchup against Cueto who, much like me, is several years past his prime and should probably just give up at this point. While Cueto has been able to limit hard contact to an extent to the left side of the plate, he really hasn’t been go against lefties or righties. He owns a piss poor 6.12 xFIP, 17.5% K rate, and 11.3% walk rate. The A’s on the other side have Chapman, Canha, Olson, Semien, Davis, and Piscotty that can all take Cueto yard early and often. While strictly from a numbers standpoint, the Rangers and Rockies are a much better stack, the A’s are going to come in at way less ownership and can easily put up 10 runs here. Stack them up and focus on the power bats.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty Best Stack, Plain and Simple
If at this point you don’t realize that Coors is the best place to hit in baseball, you probably need more than just this premium content and might need to do some research, but today this is a great spot for the Rangers bats. Its going to be hot over in Denver today (not that I would know, I haven’t left my house yet today). Castellani is getting his second major league start, and from all appearances of his minor league numbers he is not a good pitcher. He owned a 8.31 ERA and 8.25 FIP in the minors last season and so I can’t imagine that he’s going to have any success in the majors. He had a 30.4% HR/FB rate last season and looking at his pitch type, he grads out as being somewhere between splits neutral to normal splits so all power bats are in play here. Hammer in every Texas bat you can on this slate and don’t worry about the ownership.
Other tagged players: Willie Calhoun, Joey Gallo Gerrit Cole had a season high 17.8 SwStr% last time out
Gerrit Cole was good, but not great through his first three starts of the season, striking out 16 of 67 batters, while not exceeding a 12 SwStr% in any game. Then, suddenly, he struck out 10 of 21 Rays with a 17.8 SwStr%. There was some Twitter controversy about Cole fiddling with his cap, but whatever he was doing worked and drew no official complaints. He’s allowed a HR in each start and owns a 91.9 mph aEV, one of the highest marks on the board, but if he’s going to miss bats like the Houston version of Cole, that’s not a concern. The Red Sox have just a 90 wRC+ and 18.6 K-BB% vs RHP. Cole has dominated batters from either side of the plate since last season (below a .260 wOBA & xwOBA). The lineup still has many accomplished hitters, but has simply struggled recently. Cole may be the top pitcher on the board tonight and should be able to find enough strikeouts in this Boston lineup to post a top score tonight. FanDuel players will have to pay a hefty price ($11K), but he’s $200 less than Jacob deGrom, who dealt with a finger issue in his last start that made it difficult for him to throw strikes at times.
The Yankee lineup (6.11 implied runs) may have some middle of the order bargains
Corey Brewer gets the start tonight and while it seems the Boston bullpen is getting lit up every night, they are really in the middle of the pack with a 4.94 ERA, but 4.17 FIP and 3.97 ERA. Some bottom and middle of the pen arms are probably not available, but the top end of the pen hasn’t been used the last couple of days. Since the Boston pen really doesn’t have much in the way of left-handed pitching, we’ll focus on RHP here. The Yankees have a 125 wRC+ and 24.3 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Chief agitator and one of the top overall bats on the board for the only offense outside Coors above six implied runs is Aaron Judge (127 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2019). A potentially stronger value and great stacking partner for $1.6K on FanDuel would be Aaron Hicks (118 wRC+, .239 ISO). Hicks has a 129 wRC+ overall this season and costs just $2.7K.
Money Matters
This slate is loaded with high end pitching and high end hitting, and all of it is priced way up on DK, as it should be. In order to make it all fit, we can take a shot on top prospect Spencer Howard all the way down at minimum salary. Sure it’s risky to use a rookie in his second career start, but this kid is way too talented to be sitting at $4,000. Even with the four runs allowed in his first start, I see the 12.3% swinging strikes and strong control as a sign that he can hit the ground running.
Getting Back To Business
The Indians have been nothing short of a hot mess express in 2020, headlined by Zach Plesac complaining about the audacity of people questioning him for breaking protocols when the team was in Chicago. With the irony of all that cast aside, I do like the Indians in this spot. Ivan Nova simply hasn’t been a major league caliber pitcher for several seasons now, and the Indians should be able to rough him up. They also will have virtually no ownership given their struggles so far in 2020 combined with the fact that this is a loaded slate for offense. Santana is my primary power target, while the likes of Ramirez and Lindor are solid spend up options. You can even look to Freeman and Naquin for some punt value.
Other tagged players: Mike Freeman, Jose Ramirez
GPP Leverage Arm
If you are looking for some leverage tonight, consider playing Jacob deGrom over Gerrit Cole. I could be wrong here since I am doing this analysis well in advance of roster lock, but it feels like Cole will be more popular than deGrom on this slate. Cole is cheaper than deGrom on both FD & DK, the 2020 struggles of the Red Sox are well documented, and we obviously know the massive strikeout rate that Cole brings to the table. Well, deGrom has a 31%+ strikeout rate of his own over the last three seasons, and he has kept the good times rolling to start 2020 with a 32.6% strikeout rate in four starts. He is a huge road favorite against the Phillies and should get just as much consideration as Cole. Assuming Cole has a heavier pOWN% amount once those figures come out, I’ll make it a point to go overweight on deGrom.
Expect Some Long Home Runs
This matchup is an absolute dream for the Texas power hitters. They get to play in the summer weather at Coors Field, and they face off against a well below average pitcher. Ryan Castellani had an ERA of 5.49 at AA ball in 2018 and an ERA of 8.31 at AAA ball in 2019. He walks a ton of batters. He allows a lot of hard contact. The cardboard cutouts in the stands need to watch out for some LONG home runs tonight. Give me Gallo all day in this matchup. All the Texas bats are in play, with Calhoun, Choo, and Odor also being in the power mix from the left side.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Willie Calhoun Bryce Harper (211 wRC+) could be tonight's top bat
Tom Eshelman has struck out just three of the 26 batters he’s faced this year (6.4 SwStr%), but walked only one. Two of his nine fly balls have left the yard. In 43.1 major league innings, he has a 6.8 K-BB%. He’s pitched at or above the AA level since 2016, eclipsing a 20% strikeout rate only once, in 26 innings for the Phillies’ AAA affiliate last year before coming over to Baltimore. This is certainly going to be interesting with the Baltimore bullpen severely over-worked in this series and Eshelman not really stretched out to go deep into this game. While LHBs have a .349 wOBA against him in his career, xwOBA has batters from either side of the plate above .390. RHBs are at an even .400 wOBA. Bryce Harper (119 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since last season) is sitting on a 211 wRC+ this season and may be the top overall bat on a short slate.
Jesse Winker has the highest wRC+ in the Cincinnati lineup (185)
Trevor Williams has been missing some bats this year. He hasn’t had a swinging strike rate below 9% and has an 11.3% rate overall. His 14.1 K-BB% is more than three points above his career high. A .250 BABIP is responsible for a 3.52 ERA a run below estimators, but he hasn’t allowed a single barrel and has an 82.5 mph aEV through three starts. His .278 xwOBA projects a 2.96 xERA. That said, LHBs have absolutely smashed him since last season (.374 wOBA, .379 xwOBA), while RHBs haven’t done too poorly either (.324/.321). Take a look at Jesse Winker as a potential top value tonight ($2.5K on FanDuel). He has a 185 wRC+ this season, which is the highest mark in tonight’s lineup and a 131 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Yu Darvish has picked up where he left off last year (15.1 SwStr%)
Yu Darvish is the top pitcher on the main four game FanDuel slate with only Tyler Glasnow within $1K of his price tag. He’s struck out 16 of the 65 batters he’s faced with a 15.1 SwStr% that suggests much more is possible. Picking up where he left off in the second half of last season, he’s walked just two and has not allowed a HR. A 2.12 ERA is a run or so below non-FIP estimators due to the lack of HRs, but he’s only generated 2.4% Barrels/BBE against him on an 86.6 mph exit velocity, good for a .274 xwOBA and 2.87 xERA, both best on the slate. Darvish has held RHBs below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. LHBs have had more success (.310/.329), but left-handed production is not something the Milwaukee lineup can currently produce outside of Christian Yelich. Another potential factor in Darvish’s favor is some potentially favorable pitching weather at Wrigley tonight.
A Full Stack of Value Bats
The Tampa Bay Rays are far too cheap across the industry in a matchup against a lefty making his major league debut. With Austin Meadows resting today, the entire lineup is under $4.0k on DraftKings and under $3.0k on FanDuel with the exception of Brandon Lowe. This lineup has crushed lefties since the beginning of 2019 to the tune of .340 wOBA and .217 ISO. Stack them any way you want today.
Other tagged players: Mike Brosseau, Jose Martinez, Yandy Diaz
Stack Against A Bad Arm
Trevor Williams just isn’t a good pitcher. He nibbles a lot. He doesn’t miss bats. He allows a ton of line drives (over 21% line drive rate allowed for his career). Stack up your Reds tonight, particularly if our ownership projections end up showing them as an under-owned group. It’s tough gauge where ownership will fall here, but I like the power bats of Suarez and Castellanos. Akiyama is also an intriguing option as a punt play.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Shogo Akiyama