DFS Alerts
Reasonably Priced SP2
If you are looking for an affordable pitching option tonight, DeSclafani makes a lot of sense. He’s become a very solid MLB pitcher, particularly against right handed hitters. The Pirates will likely use a lot of lefties tonight, which is a bit of a concern, but this is also an offense that simply doesn’t pack a major punch at the plate with a .119 team ISO that ranks 29th in baseball. There’s some strikeout upside as well, and that’s enough to make DeSclafani a fine option on a short slate.
The One To Spend On
With all the values on this slate, it will be easy to spend up for at least one big bat tonight. For me, that will start with Bryce Harper against Tom Eshelman and the Orioles bullpen. Eshelman really has no business in a major league rotation, and in his brief sample size, he’s allowed a .254 ISO with just 11.8% strikeouts to lefties. Harper hits in the middle of the top lineup on the slate with power and patience. He fits in all formats on all sites, cash games, tournaments and stacks.
The Clear Top Arm
As much as I want to be contrarian at pitcher in GPP formats, there are simply too many warts with the other options on this slate. You need to get some exposure to Darvish. He had major command issues in Texas and during his first half season with the Cubs, but he has rectified that in a hurry. Darvish now has impeccable control to go along with his strikeout upside, and after 15+ starts, it’s time to stop worrying about when the high walks will return. The weather conditions are also favorable for pitching at Wrigley tonight, so I am not concerned about the matchup in the slightest. He’s your top option.
Everything Lines Up Here
Yu Darvish has walked just nine batters in his last 16 starts combined. Meanwhile, the next best pitcher on this slate, Tyler Glasnow, has 8 walks in just 11 innings this season. It’s not just control for Darvish, as his 31% K rate of 2019 is still in play with a 15.1% swinging strike rate so far this season. He also gets some help from the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field tonight, making him easily my top pitcher on all sites in all formats.
Intriguing GPP Stack
The top five teams in ISO so far this season are the Padres, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, and Orioles. How many people had that on their list at the beginning of the season? The Tigers and Orioles have been massive surprises. Baltimore is an intriguing contrarian offense on this slate. Assuming the weather cooperates, I will be significantly overweight with Baltimore stacks. Their primary hitters are very affordable, and Jake Arrieta is a shell of his former self. His strikeouts have been trending down for years, and all his numbers have been on the steady decline. Stacking the O’s also allows you the flexibility to spend up for other spots in your lineup. Ruiz and Nunez give you the most power upside of the bunch.
Other tagged players: Rio Ruiz, Anthony Santander Best Matchup on the Board
Arrieta is not a pitcher that I generally like to target, but today the matchup is just way to good. Arrieta is a big groundball pitcher with a bit of K upside against righties, but today he draws a matchup against a trash Baltimore lineup who don’t have a single all star caliber player in their lineup. While the lineup they are rolling out isn’t the most K heavy lineup they have, there isn’t a single guy who scares me here. While I will likely be fading Arrieta in GPPs, he is your clear SP2 if you aren’t able to go double ace.
Cheap GPP Pitcher
I may be the only person that is on Williams today and you definitely shouldn’t use him in cash, but he’s one of my favorite tournament players today. Williams has pitched well enough this season limiting hard contact and owning a 21.9% K rate. He draws a matchup against the reds who have one of the highest projected run totals on the board, but this lineup is full of strikeouts with only 2 guys in the lineup with a sub 20% k rate. There is a decent chance this goes terribly wrong, but the upside is definitely here.
Good Hitter vs Bad Pitcher
McCutchen is definitely priced way too low on every site today. He gets a matchup vs. Eshelman who gave up a .397 wOBA, .287 ISO, and a 14.3% k rate to righties last season this doesn’t even include the Baltimore trash bullpen. McCutchen is generally a guy who we like to target against lefties, but at his price tag today he is a fantastic play on all sites.
The Lock Button Play of The Day
Here is the free square in todays DFS bingo game. Renfroe vs a lefties is generally a free square everytime, but today he gets a matchup against a very subpar lefty with no real MLB experience. Renfroe owns a .292 ISO and a .346 wOBA against lefties since the beggining of last season. Hes min priced on Yahoo, and about $1k cheaper than he should be on both DK and FD. Don’t overthink this spot, and just throw it in.
Way too Cheap on FD and Yahoo
Bell is appropriately priced on DK, but on Fanduel and Yahoo, he is way to cheap. Since the beginning of 2019 Bell owns a .299 ISO and a .395 wOBA against RHP while playing in one of the worst hitters ballparks in the majors. He gets a matchup against DeSclafani who will likely be chalk and has some fairly drastic splits which include a .209 ISO and a 44.3% Hard Hit rate against lefties.
Austin Meadows (.279 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is reasonably priced ($3.2K) at Fenway
After coming out of the pen and striking out seven of 16 Mets, Zach Godley has struck out just four of 34 in two starts, although he’s exceeded an 11 SwStr% in each start. He’s seemed to have ditched his sinker in favor of more cutters and changeups with decent results in an ERA and estimators around four and an 85.4 mph aEV. The Sox are limiting him to twice through the lineup in each outing though. The Rays have walked a ton vs RHP, but also struck out a lot without much power. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Godley since last season. Austin Meadows (154 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2019) at the top of the lineup costs just $3.2K on FanDuel.
Mitch Garver (193 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019) costs $2.3K out of the leadoff spot
Eric Lauer struck out six of 10 Cubs in a relief outing, but just two or 18 Reds in his first start with the accompanying drop in velocity and 7.1 SwStr%. He’s a perfectly average pitcher with a career 12.3 K-BB% and 4.51 ERA with matching estimators. The problem is, the Twins eat perfectly average southpaws for lunch. The biggest gift FanDuel players will find on this slate is Mitch Garver (193 wRC+, .383 ISO vs LHP since last season) in the leadoff spot for $2.3K. While Lauer actually has a bit of a reverse split since 2019, RHBs have still handled him decently (.305 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and there’s a ton of value in a cheap lefty mashing catcher atop the lineup.
Rhys Hoskins (155 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019) has the platoon advantage in a great spot tonight
Wade LeBlanc has absolutely no split by wOBA (.357/.358), which Statcast completely confirms against RHBs, but pushes LHBs down 30 points to .327. That shouldn’t matter much. This is a great spot for the Phillies, who have a 151 wRC+ against LHP on this young season. The lineup is absolutely loaded with power against southpaws, the most of which belongs to Bryce Harper (154 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP since last year. Much more cheaply (more than $1K less on FanDuel) is Rhys Hoskins (155 wRC+, .264 ISO), who may be the top value on the slate.
Kenta Maeda should find some upside against Milwaukee offense with 28.9 K% vs RHP
Kenta Maeda has allowed just five runs through 17 innings with a 21 K-BB%. The strikeout rate is along the lines of his career rate, but the walk rate (4.8%) is much lower. Maeda is also generating ground balls (48.8%) at the highest rate of his career. Always a strong contact manager, he’s off to a great start for his new team, generating an 86.4 mph aEV and 3.02 xERA. Nobody expects a .146 BABIP to continue, but even so, his estimators are all below three and a half. The heavy lifting by the top end of the Minnesota bullpen in this series could push Maeda a bit further tonight. The Brewers have just an 83 wRC+ and 28.9 K% vs RHP. There’s some upside in this lineup for Maeda and while he’s worse against LHBs (.304 wOBA) than RHBs (.227) since last season, there’s not a lot to worry about here beyond Yelich and potentially Smoak. Because players have to use a pitcher on this slate and the pickings are slim, Maeda makes a ton of sense as the second most expensive arm at $8.7K.
An Overlooked Stack?
With a night full of mediocre at best pitching, ownership on elite offenses should be pretty spread out. The Phillies, Yankees and Rays are in great spots in the early wave of main slate games, and I think the Dodgers will fall further down the list than they should for most people. Their Vegas run total has been climbing throughout the day and THE BAT is even higher on LAD than Vegas.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy