DFS Alerts
Jason Heyward (back) scratched Sunday
Heyward has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to mid-back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by David Bote, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Heyward’s vacated seventh spot in the order. Meaning, the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Josh Lindblom at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Mark Gonzales via Twitter
Top Stack Option
On a slate with Coors Field, The Twins make a great option today that could come in lower owned than they should. The whole team is hitting well right now and Nelson Cruz hit two more home runs yesterday to put him at 6 for the year and ties him with teammate Eddie Rosario. He crushed a fastball off Danny Duffy 432 feet to center field. Not only is he leading the Twins with home runs, he is also batting .342 on the season. Rosario, Kepler, Polanco and Cruz make a great pivot from the Coors Field game today.
Consider Me Intrigued
I’ll be honest: John Means is the last pitcher I thought I would find myself touting. I was big time anti-Means last season as advanced metrics viewed him in a much less favorable light than his ERA but 2020 Means – despite his 7.71 ERA through two starts – has me intrigued. First though, there are two things I don’t love about this spot for Means – the matchup and the weather. But, beggars can’t be choosers, and those things could lead to Means seeing extremely low ownership on a slate largely devoid of strong pitching after the top two options. So, what intrigues me about Means? His crazy increase in fastball velocity. Means, who sat in the 91-92 mph range last season, is pumping 94-96 mph through his first two starts of the year. Means unsurprisingly didn’t have a whole lot of success in his first start of the year against a loaded Yankees lineup but showed some signs against the Marlins striking out 4 over 4.2 IP. Even if Means doesn’t pay off on Sunday’s slate, he’s someone worth monitoring moving forward.
Luck Runs Out
Jon Lester has a 1.06 ERA through his first three starts of the season but don’t let that fool you. A closer look at his advanced metrics will tell you he’s been outrageously lucky to start the season. Despite his “success” to start the year, Lester has been unable to miss bats with an absolutely ridiculous 3.9 SwStr% and a poor 13.6 K%. To Lester’s credit, he has done a pretty solid job generating soft contact (23.5 Soft%) but he’s still been extremely lucky on balls in play (.120 BABIP) and stranding runners (94.8 LOB%). If you don’t understand what any of that means, don’t worry, just jam in as many Brewer hitters as you can and hope Lester’s luck runs out.
Other tagged players: Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Ryan Braun Rounding Into Form
McCullers has been hit or miss in his return from Tommy John surgery, but the signs appear positive now. He was very sharp in his last outing against the Giants, and his other good start this year came against the same opponent he faces today in the Mariners. Seattle’s offense is relatively weak from top to bottom, and McCullers offers some of the best strikeout upside on this slate with a 26% strikeout rate for his career. The price tag is mildly affordable, and he’s my preferred SP2 on today’s slate (or as an SP1 on single pitcher sites if you can’t afford Mad Max).
Still Too Cheap
I wrote up Alvarez as a top play on Saturday and will do the same today. He simply remains too cheap on every site, though FanDuel is getting reasonably close to having an appropriate tag on him. Once again, the Astros face a lefty today in Justus Sheffield, but don’t let that scare you away from an elite hitter in the middle of a dangerous lineup. Alvarez had solid splits against lefties a year ago, and Sheffield might not pitch too deep into this game anyhow. Continue to play him as long as the price tag warrants.
The Clear Cut SP1
Assuming the weather cooperates, Scherzer is far and away the top pitcher on today’s slate. That almost occurs by process of elimination. Wheeler hasn’t shown a ton of upside this year, McCullers has been shaky since returning from Tommy John surgery, and every other pitcher is underwhelming. Meanwhile, Scherzer offers his usual 30%+ strikeout rate and gets to face the Orioles. All aboard.
Encouraging Signs
I don’t want to put the cart before the horse but Paxton showed encouraging signs in his last start with increased velocity, more strikeouts, and less hard hit balls. If those things are any indication that he’s starting to get back to his old self then he is simply underpriced, even in a matchup against the Red Sox. Ideally we would have a bigger sample size to work with but we may not get one before his price is back up over $10K.
Saturday's Top Bat
Margevicius owns a 6.34 ERA in 21 major league appearances. He still has room to grow into a quality MLB pitcher, but he simply isn’t there right now at age 24. It is unlikely to get better in a road matchup against a Houston offense that just got Yordan Alvarez back in the mix. Speaking of Alvarez, he might be the top overall play on this slate. Alvarez returned to action last night… and hit a home run in his first at bat. He’s far too cheap on every site, as let’s not forget that he hit .313 with a .432 wOBA and .342 ISO as a rookie in 2019. Alvarez had neutral splits as well, so I am not worried one bit about the L/L matchup against a mediocre pitcher. The price tag should be higher on every site. Just play him.
Elite Potential Against A Low Strikeout Pitcher
The Colorado bats are the easy targets in the Saturday matchup. They face off against Kyle Gibson, who has been the definition of an average MLB arm for several years. He has a career 18% strikeout rate (quite low) and a career 8% walk rate (quite high). He has allowed hard contact at a 33% clip for his career and at a 47% clip this year. These trends are not good when your next start comes in Denver. Gibson is relatively splits neutral, so just target the elite hitters here. Charlie Blackmon is hitting well over .400 so far this season and represents a fine target in all formats. Everyone knows the power that Arenado and Story bring to the table. For now, I’ve marked Story as a core play, as I like the way he lines up against a low strikeout pitcher. He has great safety and upside tonight.
Affordable SP2 Option
Javier is a fine SP2 option on this slate, and the advanced numbers look better than the surface numbers. Javier owns a respectable 3.87 SIERA with 27% strikeouts and 7% walks. The DFS price tag is very affordable. He is very likely to pick up a win with Houston at home against a bad pitcher. Javier also gets to face a weak, young Seattle lineup. Javier has been lucky on the BABIP front so far this season, with opponents featuring a .167 BABIP against him. Regression will kick in at some point, but I don’t think Seattle is the team that will hurt him too much. Otherwise, his metrics are very solid for an affordable pitcher. This one feels like a no brainer, particularly in cash games. Javier is the most viable SP2 candidate on the slate.
Great Arm In A Great Matchup
I expect Corbin to be the higher owned of the two aces tonight. He has more of a safety element at this stage of the season, and Corbin also owns the better matchup. While the Orioles have been a pleasant surprise offensively to start 2020, part of that can be attributable to the fact that they have not faced a lot of truly elite arms. This is still a team that most would expect to finish near the bottom of the league in offense by the time the season winds down. Corbin has been his usual solid self through his first four starts of the year, compiling a 2.50 ERA with 28% strikeouts, 4% walks, and a healthy swinging strike rate. The Nationals also need some innings from him after Stephen Strasburg was lifted in the first inning on Friday due to injury. Corbin has the best safety/upside combination on this slate.
One of the Top Plays
Charlie Blackmon has been having a career year so far leading the MLB with a .447 batting average. His low strikeout percentage of 12% also makes him one of the best plays of the day in Coors going up against a very average at best pitcher in Kyle Gibson.
Ryan Castellani had a 98 mph exit velocity in his major league debut
Ryan Castellani struck out three of the 14 Mariners he faced (11.7 SwStr%), while walking one without allowing a hit in his major league debut. Five of his nine batted balls were on the ground, but he generated a flaming 98 mph exit velocity despite not allowing a single barrel. Without a minor league season this year, the Mariners were at a disadvantage against an unkown like Castellani, low on the prospect list. He had just a 7.9 K-BB% in 10 AAA starts last year and now there’s some video on him. While he’s unlikely to go deep into this game and the Colorado bullpen has exceeded expectations (4.76 ERA, but 3.27 FIP), players have to side with Texas bats at Coors here. They have the highest implied run line on the slate (6.64) despite having just a 60 wRC+ and 4.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2019) costs $4K on FanDuel, but has massive upside in this spot and could be considered the top overall bat on the board. He may hit one that doesn’t come down until Sunday.
The Brewers have a 74 wRC+ and 20.7 K-BB% vs RHP
Tyler Chatwood was considered a surprise Cy Young candidate after striking out 19 of his first 47 batters, allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings. He followed that up by being blasted for eight runs (two HRs) by the Royals in just 2.1 innings. He did strike out four of 18 batters without a walk. The biggest difference seemed to be that he threw more cutters and curves in exchange of sinkers last time out. He only allowed one more Barrel than each of his first two starts, but his exit velocity exceeded 90 mph for the first time. While his ground ball rate hasn’t been below 50% in four years, it hasn’t been above 46% in any start this year yet. The good news is that he’s still walked just four batters this year and owns a 29.2 K-BB% nearly six times his career rate of 5.0%. Two of the biggest reasons to give him another shot tonight include weather and opponent. The wind is once again projected to be blowing in at Wrigley tonight and the Brewers don’t have a single batter on the roster above a 95 wRC+ with more than 23 Plate Appearances. In fact, they have a team 20.7 K-BB% and 74 wRC+ vs RHP this year. At $8.2K Chatwood could be one of the top values on the board and potentially with lowered ownership after his most recent debacle.