DFS Alerts
The Lock Catcher on DK
I really shouldn’t have to explain why you should use Perez on DK, but I will regardless. Perez is way too underprieced at 2.6k over on DK here. The Royals have a 5.39 implied team total today and Pereze is batting in the heart at the order. He is one of the best hitting catchers on the slate and is also one of the cheapest catchers on the slate. This is a clear don’t overthink it spot. Just take Perez and move on.
Underpriced Bats Against a Struggling Pitcher
Jose Berrios struggled in his first outing of the year. He tossed four innings and allowed 7 hits while only managing 9.3% Swinging Strikes. Cleveland again looks to boast one of the top offenses in baseball led by Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. The lineup gets a little thin at the bottom, but does offer some upside. Hitters 1-5 can all present big problems for Berrios.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
LeMahieu in great spot at reasonable price on FanDuel ($3.3K)
DJ LeMahieu bats atop the Yankee lineup most nights. Last year, he had a 182 wRC+ and .256 ISO vs LHP and he’s started off the new season hot overall (274 wRC+). While John Means had a decent rookie season (3.60 ERA, .305 xwOBA), his SIERA (5.02) and DRA (4.61) were much higher. He’s also unlikely to go deep into this game either way, just off the IL, and has one of the worst bullpens in baseball backing him up. It’s hitting weather in Baltimore and the Yankees own the top implied run line tonight (6.35). LeMahieu is not only a top overall bat, but a great value on FanDuel for just $3.3K.
Jorge Soler smashed same-handed pitching last year (140 wRC+, .318 ISO)
Ivan Nova was above a .335 wOBA & xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate last year. Jorge Soler mashed against pitchers from either side of the plate last year too. He had had a 140 wRC+ and .318 ISO vs RHP, which is supported by a .395 xwOBA. He’s in the middle of a lineup with a healthy 5.43 implied run line tonight. Ivan Nova allowed two HRs, facing just 21 batters in his first start in Cincinnati. While the walks were a surprise (5.8% last year), his 14.1 K% last year is worst on the board tonight, as is his 5.16 SIERA, 7.54 DRA, 90.9 Z-Contact% and .347 xwOBA. This is a smash spot for Soler, who generated a 92.6 mph aEV last year with 16.9% Barrels/BBE.
Huge ISO Against LHP for This Stack
In 2019, this group of Red Sox hitters posted a .231 ISO against left-handed pitching. They are led by J.D. Martinez (.482!), Xander Bogaerts (.261), Kevin Pillar (.241), Christian Vazquez (.268) and Michael Chavis(.255). Mr. Matz is in for a rough day if his command is not completely on point. Play the Red Sox and expect some home runs.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Kevin Pillar RHBs had a .353 wOBA vs Martin Perez last year, .352 career mark
RHBs had a .353 wOBA against Martin Perez last year, matching his .352 career mark. Perez didn’t ingratiate himself to the Boston fans either, struggling against the Orioles in his debut last week (5 IP – 4 ER – 2 BB – 2 K). While that makes just about every right-handed power bat in the Mets’ lineup a worthy play tonight (Pete Alonso 141 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP last year), Amed Rosario has been hitting out of the leadoff spot against southpaws. He had a 134 wRC+ and .216 ISO against them last year and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. The Mets have a healthy 5.24 implied run line tonight and there’s a good chance Rosario scores one or two of those runs.
Dylan Bundy struck out seven A's in season debut
Dylan Bundy dominated a strong Oakland lineup in his L.A. debut, striking out seven of 24 batters, allowing just three hits without a walk in 6.2 innings. Better than people realize last year (23.1 K%, 4.54 SIERA), his 6.1% Barrels/BBE mark generated a .309 xwOBA that was 24 points better than his actual mark. He could thrive finally free of Baltimore and the AL East. While the Mariners have been surprisingly productive with a team 118 wRC+ this year, they also have a 25.8 K%. With the Angels’ bullpen imploding this week, Bundy may just get the chance to push deep into this game and costs a reasonable $8.2K on FanDuel.
Dinelson Lamet has large park and matchup edge
Dinelson Lamet does not have the same floor as Shane Bieber, but may be able to match him for upside. Lamet struck out eight of 21 Diamondbacks in his season debut, allowing just a single run and walk with five hits in five innings. More impressively, he was averaging 97.9 mph on his fastball, up 1.8 mph from last season, when he struck out 33.6% of batters, best on the board tonight. There’s some thought that Lamet may have even had some run bad last year with a 4.07 ERA. All of his estimators were below four with a .296 xwOBA. While Lamet is not a threat to throw a complete game like Bieber on any given night either, he does have two massive advantages over the Cleveland pitcher tonight. He pitches in a much more negative run environment in San Francisco and against a much weaker lineup than the Twins. The Giants have a team 88 wRC+ and 18.8 K-BB% this year and had just a 9.1 HR/FB at home last year. Lamet would get a further boost if Austin Hedges were behind the plate, one of the best framers and all around defensive catchers in the game. Regardless, the Giants have a board low 3.63 implied run line tonight. Lamet costs $1.5K less than Bieber on FanDuel.
Just fix these Prices
Looks like its just another day where we are pretty much required to stack the Royals. For some reason, the Royals keep getting tons of ownership and DK keeps refusing to raise their price tags. Soler draws a matchup against Nova who couldn’t strike out a guy if the Corona Vaccine depended on it. Last season, Nova owned a 14.2% K rate vs righties, and although he did a decent job of limiting hard contact and fly balls, Soler owned a 47.9% hard hit and 42.4% FB rate last season vs. RHP. His price tag is far too low for a guy who owned a .318 ISO and .384 wOBA vs RHP last season and is probably one of the most likely guys on the board to hit the ball out of the park today. If you’re fading Soler today, then be prepared to potentially have your night ruined after he gets the first pitch.
Cheap Pitcher with a massive K rate
We’ve all experienced the roller coaster ride that is starting Robbie Ray. He gives up massive amounts of hard contact and will constantly load the bases walking guys before eventually striking out the next 3 batters. The general rule with Robbie Ray is to completely ignore the matchup and only roster him when he is low owned, while avoiding him entirely when he’s chalky. Today, he is a little too cheap, but draws a matchup against a very tough Dodgers lineup with a bunch of power. While the matchup may not be great, Ray still strikes out both sides of the plate at a 30%+ clip and and rack up a whole lot of fantasy points if his pitch count doesn’t get too high. Check out ownership projections later to see where Ray is likely ending up at, but based on the matchup, Ray shouldn’t come in at too high ownership here and is therefore a fantastic play.
Underrated Pitcher in a Great Matchup
While Bundy may have made me angry on a near weekly basis last season, this year should be a different scenario. He is not longer playing in one of the worst ballparks in the majors and is no longer in the toughest division in baseball for pitchers. He draws a matchup today against probably the weakest hitting lineup in the majors in the Mariners. Last season, in a limited sample size, the Mariners owned a 25.5% K rate vs. RHP. Bundy’s biggest problem last season was his massive HR/9 vs righties and today’s projected Seattle lineup only has 1 righty power bat in the lineup. Expect a big outing from Bundy today.
Late Night Hammer
I like the Angels as a stack in the late games tonight. Marco Gonzales is a capable MLB pitcher, but this is a quality lineup with lots of upside. Trout finally showed some life with three hits on Wednesday. Rendon is back and is very dangerous against lefties. Ohtaini is my sneaky option here, as Gonzales has occasionally had reverse splits tendencies in the past. Ohtani won’t be as highly owned as Trout or Rendon and makes for a nice way to differentiate your LAA stacks from the field. Don’t be scared by the L/L matchup there.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
Where's The Price Bump?
The Royals continue to be chalky night in and night out, but the DFS sites seem reluctant to raise their prices. FanDuel has done a reasonable job with it, but you still have guys like Franco and O’Hearn sitting at punt level prices. Soler and Perez remain ridiculously cheap on DraftKings. Any way you slice it, you can stack up the middle of this order on any site without breaking the bank. That’s going to have players interested, especially in a matchup against an aging Ivan Nova, who has seen his numbers tail off over the last several seasons. He had a 5.16 SIERA and 4.91 xFIP a year ago while allowing hard contact at a 33% clip. This simply isn’t a good pitcher, making the Royals’ value bats hard to ignore in this spot.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Ryan O'Hearn Low Owned GPP Stack
Stack the Mets in GPP formats tonight. Even though the Mets’ offense has shown some life in the first few games, and even though they are facing a mediocre LHP in Martin Perez, and even though they have one of the higher team totals on the board tonight, you are not going to see massive ownership on the Mets. Those who wish to spend up can play the Yankees. Those who wish to save money can play the cheap Royals. A few other offenses are also in good spots. This leaves the Mets in a sea of under-owned-ness (which is not a word, but it is today). Stack ‘em up. Alonso and Cespedes are your power options, and J.D. Davis checks in at a fairly reasonable salary with his middle of the order spot.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Davis Strikeouts + Matchup = Upside
Lamet is a very talented pitcher, but we have rarely seen him post fantastic scores for fantasy purposes because the Padres have often kept his pitch count in check. The good news is that he was allowed to throw 80 pitches in his first start of the year, and he might get to 85 or 90 tonight. That should be enough against an abysmal Giants lineup, especially when you consider that Lamet has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher on the table. He is an elite option in all formats.