DFS Alerts
Ride The Favorable Matchup
It is, of course, very early in this bizarre 2020 MLB season. However, the Tigers are currently sporting a .198 teambatting average with a massive 33.5% strikeout rate. This continues a trend from 2019, in which this lineup was essentially the worst in the league. Even fringe pitchers are DFS options against them, which makes rookie Brady Singer a reasonable option on this slate after he pitched well against the Indians in his MLB debut. He is one of Kansas City’s better prospects and will definitely be in my GPP pitcher pool this evening.
Good Chalk
The Yankees right-handed power jumps out as the obvious top plays on this slate. While that can lead to high ownership, on FanDuel, the prices on most of these Yankees are simply too cheap. Guys like Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit and Aaron Hicks are clearly underpriced along with shortstop Gleyber Torres. Torres should get the bets lineup spot of the bunch, in between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and at just $3,100, his .272 ISO against lefties is too good to pass up.
Tough Matchup, Elite Skills
A pitcher who allows hard contact is going to be at some obvious risk against the power of Minnesota, but Shane Bieber is simply the best pitcher on this slate by a wide margin. He combines a high 30% strikeout rate with low 4.7% walks. In 2019 that was the 5th best K-BB% in the league behind Cole, Verlander, Scherzer and deGrom. That is the company that Bieber keeps, and it’s possible he takes another step forward this year with a crazy high 18.6% swinging strike rate in his opening start.
Still Too Easy
We have at least one more day of Royals chalk to deal with on DraftKings, and the prices remain dirt cheap for this decent offense against a bad Detroit pitching staff. At third base, there are a lot of strong options, so I wouldn’t go all in here in tournaments, but for a starting point in cash games at least, there’s just no way to overlook Maikel Franco at minimum salary. Franco is way too good a hitter to be this cheap especially against a team like Detroit and Ivan Nova.
Eric Hosmer (illness) scratched Wednesday; Greg Garcia replaces
Hosmer has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to an illness that’s now forced him to miss three games in the first week of the 2020 season. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Greg Garcia, who will now play second base and slot directly into Hosmer’s vacated fifth spot in the order. Meaning, the remainder of the Padres lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Johnny Cueto on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jeff Sanders via Twitter Other tagged players: Greg Garcia
Low Owned Power Bats
The Twins have a potent offense that is full of power bats, and they are under-priced on DraftKings. I like them in a full stack or as a compliment to another stack allowing you to get up to some of the premium pitching available on the slate.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson
A Pitcher to Target at Camden Yards
The Yankees are in a premier spot tonight against Asher Wojciechowski. Woj posted an XFIP of 5.69 and allowed 51% fly balls in 2019. Any bat in the NYY lineup is viable tonight but the huge power of Judge, Stanton and Sanchez sticks out in a homer friendly ballpark.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton A leadoff bat at $2.2K on FanDuel
Adam Frazier could be a top value on FanDuel at second base tonight. He has a tough matchup against Brandon Woodruff, but most teams have their top starters on the mound tonight. Last year, Frazier had a 105 wRC+ vs RHP, while LHBs had a .326 wOBA against Woodruff, which is around league average. Frazier is projected to bat out of the leadoff spot and costs just $2.2K.
The Tigers may be better than you think against LHP
Danny Duffy gave up two runs on three hits while striking out in 4.1 innings. Duffy had just a 4.6 SwStr% with a full two mph drop in velocity (90.7 mph) from last year. Coming off a season with a 4.39 ERA, but estimators much higher (4.89 SIERA, 5.35 DRA) and a .342 xwOBA that’s highest on the board tonight, this could be the pitcher to attack on Wednesday night. Duffy had a .343 xwOBA vs RHBs last year and the Tigers are much stronger than you think against southpaws. The first four batters in the lineup tonight each had a wRC+ above 130 vs LHP last year. In addition, the Royals are projected to have one of the worst pens in the majors again.
Dustin May averaged 99 mph on Opening Day with a 13.3 SwStr%
Dustin May only struck out 21.1% of batters at AAA last season and just four of 20 Giants in his 2020 debut, but reasons to be encouraged include an average fastball velocity of 99 mph in his season debut (up over three mph since last season) and a 13.3 SwStr% after an 8.7 SwStr% in 34.2 innings last year. May also had a 53.3 GB% against the Giants, which compares favorably with his minor league batted ball rates (50+ GB% at every level). Concerns would be that May only threw 60 pitches last time out and that the Astros had just an 18.4 K% vs RHP last year. However, May pitched into the sixth inning in each of his four major league starts last year and was a late replacement on Opening Day. Houston is also an overall negative run environment and May costs just $6.1K on FanDuel.
Giancarlo Stanton faces an extreme fly ball pitcher and costs less than $4K on FanDuel
Asher Wojciechowski struck out batters at an average rate last year, but generated an ERA (4.92) with estimators right around or above five, including a board high 10.7% Barrels/BBE. He generated just a 30.2 GB% last season. The Yankees rarely show a bat in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP and it should be great hitting weather tonight for a team with a 5.78 implied run line. Giancarlo Stanton has started the season red hot in Washington with a 347 wRC+ with two HRs and costs less than $4K on FanDuel tonight. Wojciechowski’s ground ball rate dropped to 25.4% against RHBs last year and the Baltimore pen shouldn’t be much better.
Cody Bellinger had a .328 ISO and 167 wRC+ vs RHP last year
Cristian Javier is a prospect of some note with a 45 FV grade via Fangraphs, but has only made 13 starts above A ball, regularly pitching out of the pen as well last year. He’s unlikely to go deep into this game. In addition, with Pressly out and Harris gone, the Astros pen has been beaten to a pulp this week and includes several pitchers who have just made their major league debuts. Cody Bellinger is a key bat tonight. He’s coming off a season with a 167 wRC+ and .328 ISO vs RHP and Statcast believes his wOBA (.429) should have been five points better. The Dodgers are one of few teams tonight with an implied run line above five. He and the rest of the Dodger lineup should be facing young, inexperienced or mediocre relievers all night long.
A Slate Where Salary Matters
There are elite high end pitching and obvious high upside bats all over this slate. In order to fit in any of the best plays, you’re going to have to go cheap somewhere. There will be nothing sneaky about the Royals-Tigers game, but we can’t overlook the salaries on players like Salvador Perez, Maikel Franco, Ryan McBroom, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. Matt Boyd is a good pitcher, and one that I’ll be using in tournaments, but that’s still no reason a quality major league player hitting cleanup should cost minimum salary on this slate.
Jacob deGrom dominated in his season debut (8 Ks, 22.2 SwStr%)
Jacob deGrom absolutely dominated the Braves for five innings in his 2020 debut. He struck out eight of the 17 batters he faced (22.2 SwStr%), allowing just a single hit and walk. Even more unfair, he averaged 98.5 mph on his heater, up 97.2 mph from last season. Coming off two straight Cy Youngs, a 2.43 ERA (2.27 DRA) and 26.5 K-BB% last year, he’s one of tonight’s top pitchers. While it’s close either way, his advantages are a negative run environment and a FanDuel price tag $500 cheaper. The Red Sox are still a competent offense, but the loss of Mookie Betts should sting, while expected key contributors Andrew Benintendi (97 wRC+) and J.D. Martinez (103 wRC+) were just average hitters vs RHP last season. Concerns about deGrom’s back should be put to rest and he should be primed for more of a full workload tonight.
Cheap Stack To Pivot Off The Cheap Chalk
Designated for large-field GPPs only, so beware. Woodruff is a good pitcher, Pittsburgh is a bad team, and PNC Park is quite a harsh hitting environment. So why play the Pirates? Well, if you’re going to try to pair two expensive SPs tonight, the most obvious well-projected source of cheap hitting will be in the KC/DET game. While that construction may be okay for single-entry small-field contests, it won’t provide much leverage for bigger GPPs. The Pirates 5-man stack comes in under $20k in salary on DraftKings and at sub-5% ownership overall and can be a useful way to utilize expensive pitching while not being stuck with the Royals & Tigers chalk bats in the process. SlateIQ currently has them ranked 12th as the top stack of the night, which is still better than 6 other teams on this slate, so it wouldn’t be a complete long shot dart throw tonight.
Other tagged players: Colin Moran, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco