DFS Alerts
Potential value bat near top of the order at Coors
Jon Gray allowed just one run through 4.2 innings in Texas, but walked as many as he struck out (three) with just a 23.1 GB% and a significant drop in velocity (96.1 to 94.4). This resulted in just a 7.6 SwStr%. Last season, Gray only struck out 23.6% of batters, but kept 50.4% of batted balls on the ground, allowing just 5.9% Barrels/BBE. His .326 wOBA was supported by Statcast (.326 xwOBA), while most estimators weren’t far above his 3.84 ERA. That’s totally acceptable in Colorado, but if Gray is compromised at all, this could be a very dangerous spot for him. The Padres have a team 126 wRC+ on the season. They have a team 13.6 BB%. Their team 5.75 implied run line is one of the highest on the board. Gray struggled with LHBs last year (.345 wOBA/.344 xwOBA), but held RHBs below .310 (wOBA & xwOBA) with a 3.5% higher ground ball rate. The majority of the projected San Diego lineup is above a 100 wRC+, but a great bat to load up on tonight would be Trent Grisham, who has been spending some time in the two slot and has a 181 wRC+ with just a $3.3K price tag on FanDuel. In fact, many of the San Diego bats are $3.5K or less.
Moustakas (34.2 wRC+) faces pitcher with platoon issues (LHBs .347 wOBA)
Spencer Turnbull struck out eight of 22 Reds in his season debut, allowing just a single run through five innings with three hits, but four walks. He generated swings and misses on 17.2% of his pitches. Turnbull was very average last season (13.3 K-BB%, 4.61 ERA, 4.62 SIERA, 3.29 xwOBA, .332 wOBA). Perfectly average in every way, but with a bit of a platoon problem. LHBs had a .347 wOBA with a Statcast supporting .345 xwOBA. This is a nice spot for the Moose. Moustakas has begun the season red hot with a 342 wRC+ and two HRs in just 12 PAs, but his .264 ISO vs RHP last year tops Reds’ LHBs. The Moose could be considered a strong value play at $3.4K on FanDuel tonight.
Luis Castillo looks to dominate Tigers in second straight start
Luis Castillo struck out 28.9% of batters last year with a 3.40 ERA and similar estimators. Contact wise, he generated a 55.2 GB% with an 87.3 mph aEV, resulting in just 5.1% Barrels/BBE. He was even more dominant in his first start of the season, striking out 11 of the 25 Tigers he faced with an absurd 24.2 SwStr% and his velocity was up over a mile per hour from last year to 97.8. The Tigers don’t want no more of this, but they’re going to get some on Friday. While the Detroit offense has a respectable 98 wRC+ due to a board high 28.3 HR/FB, they also own a major league high 32.3 K%. They were putrid against RHP last year as well (74 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB). Luis Castillo is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10.1K, but that’s because there’s also a strong chance he’ll be the best.
If You Need The Savings
There is plenty worth spending up on tonight, and if you want get double aces or a high end stack on DK, you’re going to need some value. Michael Brantley never feels exciting to roster, but he is so far undervalued here for his skill set, he jumps off the page. He is basically an elite real life hitter and above average fantasy hitter who is priced like a nobody. Against right-handed pitching, he strikes out less than 10% of the time while hitting line drives all over the field with a 43% hard hit rate. He’s an easy play in cash and a viable salary saver in tournaments.
Cheap Exposure To Top Offense On FanDuel
The Yankees are the only team on Friday’s main slate with an implied run total over 6 runs as they’ll look to tee-off against Ryan Weber and Boston’s terrible bullpen. Aaron Hicks has been hitting fifth for the most potent offense in baseball and should find himself batting in the top half of the order again on Friday presenting him with plenty of run producing and scoring opportunities for too cheap of a price tag ($2,900) on FanDuel. The switch-hitting, Hicks has posted a wOBA of .343 or better each of his last three full seasons and has flashed plenty of power, posting an ISO of .205 or better during the same span.
Too Cheap On DraftKings
After a three game absence due to illness, Mike Moustakas returned from an illness on Wednesday and immediately delivered with a HR, two walks, and 22 DK points. Moose is an above average hitter in a favorable matchup, yet is priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings. Considering he has positional eligibility at both second and third base, I fully expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the slate on DK.
Velocity Concerns
If you’re looking for a “safe” play, look elsewhere. Manaea comes with big time velocity concerns as the left-hander averaged just 88.13 mph on his fourseamer in his first start of the year against the Los Angeles Angels. That’s far from ideal for Manaea who found most of his Big League success when he was sitting in the 91-92 mph range with that pitch. Still, despite the concern, I am comfortable taking shots on Manaea where he’s cheap in large-field tournaments largely due to the matchup. The Mariners are a much easier matchup for Manaea who still flashed some positive signs in his first start of the season by allowing 0 barrels and posting a solid 38% CSW (Called-Strikes Plus Swinging Strike Rate), a possible indication he’s still tough to hit despite the decreased velocity.
Too Cheap On The Other Side
While Luis Castillo is busy being the chalk pitcher tonight, don’t forget to look for his offensive teammates, with guys like Mike Moustakas on DK, and Jesse Winker on FD and DK for some savings. Detroit’s Justin Turnbull was very strong against right-handed batters in his rookie season, but his strikeout rate fell to 18.8% against lefties, while allowing 43% hard hits. Moustakas leads the charge here with a .264 ISO against righties at too low a price.
Don't Overthink It
On a slate this size, when something is going to be mega-chalk, the first thought is always to fade. While that’s great in theory, sometimes the chalk is chalky for an unmistakable reason. Luis Castillo is simply mispriced on DK. It’s an error, don’t pass on it in the bulk of your lineups. Sure, if MME, build a few without him, it’s not as if he’s guaranteed to be one of the top two pitchers, but don’t try to talk yourself into believing he’s not the best play. On FD, he won’t be quite as popular, but after a silly 24% swinging strike rate on Opening Day against this same team, he’s the best play there as well.
Egregious DraftKings' Price Tag
The fact that Luis Castillo can even be classified as a “value” option on DraftKings is beyond egregious. Apparently their pricing team is too focused on NBA to realize that an $8,000 Luis Castillo against the Detroit Tigers is going to be nearly 100% owned in cash games and ~70% owned in tournaments. Castillo just flexed all over this same Tigers team in his 2020 debut by racking up 11 strikeouts over six innings en route to 29.3 DK points. Thankfully FanDuel and Yahoo! priced Castillo appropriately so we’ll have to look elsewhere for value on those sites, but go ahead and lock him into your cash game and single-entry tournament lineups on DK.
Punt With Your SP2
All in on Alex Cobb? I won’t go to that extreme, but we do need some salary relief with the first Coors Field game of the year available on tonight’s slate. Cobb is $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. He pitched well against the Red Sox in the opener and isn’t exactly a gas can. We don’t need much at minimum salary, and Cobb seems healthy to start the season. His numbers won’t wow you, but we also haven’t seen much of him in over a year. The salary is simply too cheap to ignore on a slate where we need the value.
Top Pitcher on the Board
The choice for the top point per dollar pitcher on this slate doesn’t seem to be too difficult this evening. Luis Castillo is a quality arm who is wildly underpriced on DraftKings and appropriately priced on FanDuel. He has significantly less pitch count concerns compared to all the other top pitchers, and he also owns an extremely favorable matchup against a Tigers team that has been woeful against RHP for two plus years now. They are the highest strikeout team in baseball, and Castillo has a great floor/ceiling combination in this spot. There is double digit strikeout upside here.
Affordable Mini Stack
The Astros obviously have an elite offense, but they might get overlooked a little bit on this slate. I like the idea of making a stack with some value bats for the Astros. Michael Brantley remains absurdly cheap on DK, while Josh Reddick is priced as a punt value on all sits. Throw in the likes of Springer, Bregman, or Altuve to add one expensive sprinkle to your stack. This is a good spot against a mediocre pitcher in Matt Andriese, and the Astros are my favorite sneaky target of the night.
Breakout Spot
We have our first Coors Field game of the year tonight with a Vegas total approaching 12 in Denver. This game is natural for GPP stacks, and I will start with the Padres. Fernando Tatis appears poised to take off in 2020 for a much improved Padres offense. He has a .420 wOBA in the early going with a hard contact rate over 70%. That batted ball data obviously is attributable to sample size, but Tatis is going to thrive at the top of this order. Oh, and he gets to hit at Coors Field tonight, remember. Stack up the Padres with confidence.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham New Core With Yankees Rain?
On FanDuel, most of my core hitters tonight are Yankees bats. The weather there is looking dicier as the day rolls on, so I’m adding a couple other players here just in case. Third base is stacked, and I would consider using my UT slot here as well, but Manny Machado looks the most underpriced for a matchup against Kevin Gausman and his history of reverse splits power.