DFS Alerts

Clayton Kershaw (back) scratched Thursday; Dustin May will start

The Dodgers officially placed Kershaw on the 10-day injured list with back stiffness he began experiencing following Tuesday’s workout and have recalled Dustin May, who is MLB.com’s #23 overall prospect heading into the 2020 season. There hasn’t been any clear indication of a potential pitch count or innings limit for May in tonight’s, but May was quoted during an interview in recent weeks that the plan was for him to be stretched out to five innings once the regular season began.

The real target here is the Nationals bullpen. A group that posted a 4.75 XFIP, and allowed a .315 wOBA and .200 ISO in 2019. The chance of an in-game delay that could potentially knock Scherzer out of the game early presents us with an even greater opportunity.

Juan Soto tests positive for COVID-19, will not be available for Opening Night

Soto received the results from a coronavirus test early this morning and has tested positive for COVID-19, making him ineligible to play in Thursday’s season opener and beyond. Soto will need to test negative twice over a span of more than 24 hours to be cleared to return to play, but Nationals GM Mike Rizzo did confirm to reporters that contact tracing doesn’t prevent anyone else from playing this evening. The Nationals hadn’t yet released their official lineup for tonight’s contest, so be sure to check out the MLB Starting Lineups page once such information becomes available.

High Upside Arm

There aren’t a lot of choices for pitching options on this two game slate. Kershaw will be highly owned thanks to his price and status as a -300 favorite, while Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer duke it out in a fun head-to-head clash of titans. Scherzer might get a little less ownership here, as he has to face the feared Yankees lineup. However, we all know he’s capable of piling up strikeouts in bunches, and I am encouraged by the fact that the Nationals let him throw 92 pitches in a meaningless exhibition tune up game over the weekend. There are some high strikeout bats in this Yankees lineup, especially with Didi Gregorius now gone. There’s tons of upside here.

Best Value Play on the Slate

On such a small slate, there aren’t going to be a whole lot of value plays that just jump off the page, but Pollock is easily the best value play on the board for me. While we generally like to target lefties against Cueto, Pollock is a solid bat. Even after a bit of a disappointing season last year, Pollock still owns a .332 wOBA and .210 ISO over the last two seasons. Pollock is sitting under 4k on DK and under 3k over on FD. He should be a lock in both your DK and FD builds

Three Aces, Take Your Pick

We’ve got three of the best pitchers in baseball going on Opening Night. While you really can’t go wrong, on two-pitcher sites, the salaries make it easiest to start with Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, and then pair him with one of the more expensive strikeout pitchers, Gerrit Cole or Max Scherzer. Kershaw is the only pitcher on this slate who gets a good matchup against a bad lineup and he’s just too cheap for his consistent skills.

The Only Real Value Pitcher - DK Only

(DK Specific) – This two game slate is a mess for pitching (and by mess I more mean the mess that you get on your face after eating ribs, it’s both great and terrible), but the one guy who you pretty much have to have in your lineup from a point per dollar standpoint is Kershaw. He has by far the easiest match up on the board and is far too cheap at just $7.7k. Kershaw has the lowest opponent run line on the board today by a full run, and although the pitch count is a concern for him, he is easily the top point per dollar option today. Just throw him in for cash and small touranments and move on.

The Obvious Stack

There aren’t a lot of places to go for offense on opening night, and you certainly aren’t going to be the only one stacking the Dodgers. However, they are almost impossible to avoid given their status as the team facing the weakest pitcher (by far) on the slate. You almost have to get some exposure here, and it starts with the lefty power of Bellinger and Muncy. Seager makes sense at a thin shortstop position, and this is the “chalky” part of the stack. However, you could get a little different by throwing in a lower owned play that hits at the bottom of the order. Someone like A.J. Pollock isn’t sexy, but he could be a difference maker on a two game slate. Johnny Cueto simply doesn’t belong in the conversation with the other pitchers on this slate.

High Upside Arm

There aren’t a lot of choices for pitching options on this two game slate. Kershaw will be highly owned thanks to his price and status as a -300 favorite, while Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer duke it out in a fun head-to-head clash of titans. Scherzer might get a little less ownership here, as he has to face the feared Yankees lineup. However, we all know he’s capable of piling up strikeouts in bunches, and I am encouraged by the fact that the Nationals let him throw 92 pitches in a meaningless exhibition tune up game over the weekend. There are some high strikeout bats in this Yankees lineup, especially with Didi Gregorius now gone. There’s tons of upside here.

Astros-Yankees ALCS Game 4 postponed Wednesday

The ALCS Game 4 matchup between the Houston Astors and New York Yankees on Wednesday evening has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the day and evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s postponed contest will be made up on Thursday, October 17 at 8:08 pm ET as was previously scheduled. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Wednesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.

Patrick Corbin should have a long leash, but has allowed the hardest contact on the board (9.4% Barrels/BBE)

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250 wOBA & xwOBA against Gerrit Cole this year

The ALCS moves on to Yankee Stadium tonight, the more hitter friendly run environment on the board tonight. While certainly much more power friendly, in a vacuum, it’s not really a much higher run scoring environment than Washington overall. However, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s and negligible winds, according to the RG Weather Page, Weather Edge is showing a sizable run and power boost with more than a 50 game sample, surprisingly.

Gerrit Cole was simply lights out against the Rays, striking out 25 of the 54 batters he saw, while allowing a single solo HR over 15.2 innings. It’s certainly a tougher lineup he’ll face tonight, but his 39.9 K%, 2.62 SIERA, 2.36 DRA, 77.1 Z-Contact% and .238 xwOBA are all easily best on the board today. This, of course, also easily makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board by around $2K on either site, but he’s one of two pitchers we should be confident might get some length tonight. He was the best pitcher in baseball this year and not someone the Astros will look to remove at the first sign of trouble. A 3.38 implied run line for the Yankees is second lowest on the board and likely the lowest we’ve seen for this team in a home game in quite some time. Didi Gregorius (85 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only batter in the Yankee lineup below a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this year and DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Giovanny Urshela (135 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other ones below a .250 ISO. This is not going to be an easy lineup to navigate and anyone’s playable on a two game slate, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Cole this year. Aaron Judge had a 50.9 Hard% vs RHP this year.

On the other side, Luis Severino’s results were fine through three starts this year (35.4 K%, 1.50 ERA), but he did this in just 12 innings with a 10.1 SwStr%, 3.80 SIERA and 4.05 DRA. He struck out four of the 17 Twins he faced in his lone post-season start. However, if the Yankees were willing to pull James Paxton at the first sign of trouble, that doesn’t speak confidently for Severino, who’s not made it through more than 19 batters in any of his outings this year. The good news is that he’s just $6.9K on DraftKings. The bad news is that the Astros had a 123 wRC+ vs RHP this year and a 4.12 implied run line that’s second highest on the board. The projected lineup has just a 17 K% vs RHP this year. While the Astros will be facing one of the best bullpens in baseball behind Severino, most of those guys pitched two nights ago and it’s hard to match up with an offense that hits pitchers from either side of the plate well nearly all the way through. Each of the first seven batters in the projected order, who are the same as the first two games of this series, were above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO vs RHP this year.

Yankees @ Astros features O/U of 9

Zack Greinke gets the ball for the Astros tonight coming off a disappointing outing vs. the Rays on 10/7 that saw him allow 6 earned on 3 and 2/3 innings, with 3 home runs allowed. Greinke has a 4.58 ERA / 4.29 FIP in the postseason with a 1.53 HR/9 over 70 and 2/3 innings. He had a 3.02 ERA / 3.28 FIP, 17.3 % K-BB and .276 xwOBA allowed over 68 and 2/3 regular season innings after being traded to Houston. His home/away and lefty/righty splits are very even over the past 5 years, so no advantage or disadvantage to be had there. He’ll face a Yankees lineup tonight that posted a 3rd best 114 wRC+ during the regular season with a 23.1% K rate.

The Yankees come into this game with a postseason-best .363 xwOBA as a team, but only have an implied total of 4.01 vs. Greinke tonight. Their projected lineup: 1. DJ LeMahieu (.364 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Aaron Judge (.383), 3. Brett Gardner (.312), 4. Edwin Encarnacion (.339), 5. Giancarlo Stanton (.370), 6. Gleyber Torres (.330), 7. Gary Sanchez (.379), 8. Didi Gregorius (.291), 9. Gio Urshela (.363). Not much of a sample size here, but Aaron Judge has swung it well with a .528 xwOBA over 14 PA in the playoffs thus far. Gleyber Torres is right behind him with a .472 mark in 13 PA. Once Greinke is chased from the game, The Yankees will face a tough Astros ‘pen that has allowed just a .288 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Masahiro Tanaka gets the nod for the Yankees and has his work cut out for him as his opposition has the highest implied total (4.99) on the slate by about a full run. Tanaka last pitched on 10/5, so he’ll be pitching on full rest. Tanaka posted a decent 4.45 ERA / 4.29 xFIP over 182 regular season innings but saw his K% shrink to a career-low 19.6%. He does have a 1.54 ERA / 3.61 xFIP in the postseason, but in a small sample of 35 innings. In terms of xwOBA allowed, Tanaka has been a bit better at home (.279 allowed at home, .317 away since 2015) but nothing too crazy. The Astros led all of baseball with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHP and also had the lowest K rate in the league vs. RHP at 18.4%

The Astros come into this game with just a .291 xwOBA over 177 plate appearances in the postseason, though we have a much larger sample of regular season stats to tell us that this is probably the most dangerous offense in baseball. Their projected lineup for tonight: 1. Springer (.389 xwOBA v. RHP this year), 2. Brantley (.377), 3. Altuve (.325), 4. Bregman (.370), 5. Alvarez (.414), 6. Gurriel (.318), 7. Correa (.363), 8. Chirinos (.284), 9. Reddick (.309). Though the Astros have mostly been cold so far in the postseason, Jose Altuve and Robinson Chirinos both have xwOBAs over .425, and Michael Brantley has a decent .385 mark as well. The coldest Astro has been Correa with a .186 xwOBA, which isn’t too much of a surprise given that he played just 3 regular season games over the final 6 weeks of the regular season. Once Tanaka is chased, the Astros will face a Yanks’ bullpen that has allowed a .312 xwOBA over the past month.

Nats @ Cards has O/U of 7, each team is below 4 implied runs

Adam Wainwright is starting for the Cardinals this afternoon and has quietly been an effective pitcher in his age 38 season despite appearing to be in decline in 2017 and 2018. Wainwright posted a 4.19 ERA / 4.39 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with a 1.43 WHIP, 12% K-BB, .327 xwOBA allowed and 6.9% barrel rate over 171 and 2/3 innings this year. It’s worth noting that Wainwright has been a much better pitcher at home: since 2015, Wainwright has posted a 3.06 ERA / 3.44 FIP, 12.7% K-BB and .311 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a 6.09 ERA / 4.83 FIP, 10.2% K-BB and .341 xwOBA allowed on the road. Wainwright has also been a bit more vulnerable to lefties, posting a .343 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .309 xwOBA allowed vs. RHP since 2015. Wainwright last pitched on 10/6 (7 and 2/3 innings, no runs, 8 Ks) so he is pitching on full rest.

The Nationals had just a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP during the regular season, but do have a league-leading .350 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past 30 days. They currently have an implied total of just 3.75 vs. Wainwright. Here’s their projected order: 1. Turner (.339 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Eaton (.348), 3. Rendon (.410), 4. Soto (.422), 5. Kendrick (.413), 6. Zimmerman (.327), 7. Taylor (.254), 8. Gomes (.268). Rendon and Kendrick have been the Nats’ most productive hitters this postseason with xwOBAs over .425. Taylor (.189), Gomes (.203) and Turner (.261) have struggled a bit. If BVP is your thing, it’s worth nothing that Ryan Zimmerman has an other-worldly .833 xwOBA vs. Wainwright over 40 PA since 2015. Once Wainwright is out of the game, they’ll face a Cardinals ‘pen that has allowed a .320 xwOBA over the past 30 days, regular season and postseason included.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Nationals and last pitched on 10/7 versus the Dodgers, allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio. 35 year old Scherzer is coming off another great regular season and actually set career bests in K%, K-BB%, FIP and SwStr%. Scherzer is a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties (.279 xwOBA vs. LHB, .224 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2015) but the Cardinals project to have just four lefties in their lineup today. Overall, the Cardinals had a 93 wRC+ and 23.2% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Cardinals currently have just a 3.25 implied line vs. Scherzer.

Here’s the Cardinals projected lineup: 1. Fowler (.338 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Wong (.308), 3. Goldschmidt (.343), 4. Ozuna (.380), 5. Molina (.305), 6. Carpenter (.325), 7. Edman (.324), 8. DeJong (.328). Marcell Ozuna has been their hottest hitter in the playoffs with a .456 xwOBA, followed by Paul Goldschmidt at .408. The rest of the projected lineup has been held under a .285 xwOBA thus far. The coldest bats are Paul DeJong (.169) and Yadi Molina (.217). When / if the Cardinals chase Scherzer from the game, they will face a Nationals bullpen that has allowed a .323 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Walker Buehler is the most rested starter on the slate

Although each of the games tonight are double elimination, meaning any pitchers are candidates for a quick hook, Stephen Strasburg may have the longest leash of the four, simply because the Washington bullpen has been in shambles all season. Patrick Corbin should be ready for an extended outing if necessary, but if Strasburg pitches anything like he has in his previous two outings though, he may take care of the entire thing by himself. He’s struck out 14 of the 31 batters he’s faced, allowing just five hits and a single run without a walk. For the season, he’s tied for the top strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and in sole position of the top SIERA (3.49), DRA (2.13), Z-O-Swing (25.6%), GB rate (51.1%) and xwOBA (.263). The problem, of course, is that he has the worst park neutral matchup on the board (Dodgers 115 wRC+, 21 K%, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP). The lineup is expected to feature a front five all with at least a .365 wOBA against RHP this year with only Justin Turner (.182 ISO) below a .239 ISO. Fortunately for Strasburg, this is not a neutral park. It’s a very negative run environment, but that also goes to establish how difficult the Dodger offense really is as well. Strasburg was elite against batters from either side of the plate this year (both below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA). While he and Buehler rate very closely overall tonight, Strasburg may be the better value (and perhaps the top value) at $300 less on FanDuel (exactly $10K).

Walker Buehler has the highest aEV on the board tonight (88.6 mph), but has the top FIP (3.01) and allowed the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (5.4%), while comparing very favorably with Strasburg and Flaherty in terms of strikeout rate (29.2%), SIERA (3.50), DRA (2.89) and xwOBA (.275). While he’s facing a nearly neutral offense vs RHP (100 wRC+) in a very negative run environment, the Nationals had just a 21 K% vs RHP that matches the Dodgers for the lowest mark on the board. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup features only two batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, neither in the top half of the lineup. Batters from either side of the plate were within a .260-.280 wOBA & xwOBA range against Buehler this season, making Anthony Rendon (153 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) easily the top plays here, even if it’s incredibly obvious. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) is fairly cheap though. When including price tags, the margins favoring one pitcher over another tonight are extremely close. It’s really going to matter which way the ball bounces, though Buehler has been a bit prone to blowups, especially in the second half (four ERs or more four times in 13 starts). However, he dominated the Nationals, striking out eight of 21 batters with three walks, a hit and no runs in the first game of this series and is the most rested starter on the board.