DFS Alerts
A Stack To Attack A "Mirage" Pitcher
Much of the ownership this slate will be on the Red Sox & Dodgers, so looking a bit down the board with the Phillies could be a way to get a bit contrarian – a healthy 5.3 implied run total in a great hitting environment facing Alcantara, who had a SIERA last season nearly 1.50 points higher than his actual ERA. While the Phillies will still garner decent ownership on DraftKings, the $21.5k-$22.0k price tag for their top 6 hitters projects well in the mid-range against their 5-10% ownership in GPPs and consists of scarce positions (C & SS) so you can get quality one-offs or 2-3-man combos with them.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto
The FanDuel Value Decision
|| Update: With Bruce hitting 7th I would expect his ownership to drop a fair amount from what I was projecting when I originally wrote him up. In my opinion, his drop in the order – and likely drop in ownership – makes him a better tournament target than he was before. || So, here’s the thing. Jay Bruce is undoubtedly one of the top value options on FanDuel and as a result he’s likely to be heavily owned. He’s an extremely strong play with a ton of power upside in this matchup. I think you should absolutely have exposure to Bruce in your tournament builds but also think he’s a prime candidate to go underweight on. Bruce could see 30%+ ownership which is ridiculous for any player on an 11-game slate, much less a player that has seen some offensive regression the last couple of seasons. If fading Bruce, I like the idea of spending a little more at the OF position so you can find yourself in a different lineup build than what 30%+ of the field will be running.
Fringe DraftKings Value
Manny Machado is right on the fringe of being considered a “value” play on DraftKings at $4,000 but I figured I’d highlight him as I think he’s important to lineup construction. People may want to avoid a matchup against Madison Bumgarner but the reality is it’s a favorable one for Manny who crushed LHP for a 177 wRC+ and .370 ISO last season (he owns a 125 wRC+ and .210 ISO versus LHP for his career). Bum still posted solid numbers for the Giants last season but is far removed from his peak years and struggles with the long ball when he’s not locating.
Save At Catcher
For those of you new to DFS, saving at the catcher position is a common strategy used on sites that require you to roster one. We can typically expect fantasy production at the position to be lower than the other positions as the position isn’t deep with talent. As a result, there typically isn’t a wide gap in projection/opportunity for a cheap catcher getting a spot start versus a mid-priced catcher. ‘Cheap’ is about the only positive thing I can say about the 31-year old Brantly who has very little offensive firepower if he finds himself in the lineup against Ross Stripling. With that said, Brantly’s $2K price tag on DraftKings is extremely valuable for lineup construction, as it allows you to spend more salary at more valuable positions.
Boston Value
|| Update: Annoyingly, the Red Sox are hitting Kevin Pillar 5th which bumps Chavis down to 7th. Peraza is hitting 9th. I still think Chavis is undervalued and playable in all formats. I also like the correlation you can get by running a 7/9/1 Red Sox stack for extremely cheap. || We’ll have to let poor pricing slide on Opening Day as this trio of Boston hitters is simply underpriced for their matchup against Tommy Milone. Providing he’s batting top six in the order, Chavis is guy I would consider a “core” value play across the industry. Peraza’s spot in the order is a bit up in the air but he makes for a strong value play at a weak position regardless of where he hits (however, he’s close to a must play if leading off). Benintendi is the guy that may go a bit overlooked due to the L/L matchup but I still think he’s too cheap for a guy that is likely to lead off for a team that has the highest implied run total on the slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Peraza, Andrew Benintendi Top Pt/$ Upside
I want to make it clear that I do not think you have to save money at the pitcher position on Friday’s slate, but if you’re looking for a cheap candidate with big time upside, Heaney is your guy. Strikeouts are king in DFS and Heaney has the talent to rack up a bunch of them as he posted a 28.8% strikeout rate over 95 IP last season. I don’t love the matchup against an Oakland A’s team that can get extremely right-handed but we don’t have a ton of palatable value pitching options on Opening Day with teams throwing their aces.
That's Just Too Cheap
There are no terrible pitchers on Opening Day, but one of the more attackable options is the Marlins Sandy Alcantara going up against the Phillies. While Alcantara showed some solid skills against right-handed batters, he was at just 15.9% K with 39% hard hits allowed to lefties. Bryce Harper is a top of the line play in all formats, but on FD, Jay Bruce stands out at just $2,100. His .310 ISO was the highest mark on the team, and he is way too cheap here for his power upside.
Multiple Aces, Play The Salary Game
There are a lot of good pitchers on the mound tonight, but Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty stand out. Verlander had the 2nd highest K% in the league in 2019 and gets an easy opening matchup at home against Seattle. Bieber was at 30.2% K with a low 4.7% walk rate and also has a strong matchup at home against the Royals. Flaherty was good all year, but took it to another level in the second half with 33.9% K and 6.3% walks. He also finds himself in a good spot with a home matchup against the low power Pirates. All three aces are in play on all sites, but the salaries help dictate where to start, with Flaherty too cheap on DK, Bieber the value on FD, and Verlander not priced up as much on Yahoo.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty Get Used To It
The Dodgers were one of the best lineups in the league even before adding Mookie Betts this season. Against right-handed pitching, it’s a scary group with Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager leading the way. On this Opening Day slate, first base is surprisingly one of the weaker positions, which makes Muncy my top choice to start with here. You really can’t go wrong with any of these lefties against the hard hits and fly balls allowed by Jeff Samardzija.
He's Still Here
The Red Sox are a different lineup this season after losing Mookie Betts, but J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are still here to make life tough on opposing lefties. While I don’t think Tom Milone is bad at all, Martinez against any average lefty plus a bad bullpen is a strong play in all formats. In 2019, Martinez had a cartoonish .482 ISO against lefties and is still one of the best power bats in the league.
Elite Matchup For LHB's
The Dodgers were a relative disappointment on Thursday before waking up in the late innings. They will have a chance to keep the good vibes rolling on Friday against a declining Jeff Samardzija. It has become a tradition to target left-handed bats against Samardzija, who has owned wide splits for several years now. Those splits include more line drives, fly balls, and hard contact from lefties. That sounds like a great recipe for success for the likes of Bellinger, Muncy, and Seager — all of whom are lefties with solid power potential. You can certainly add Joc Pederson into the mix as well, though his late game pinch hit risk always puts him at the bottom of the list for me.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Max Muncy
No Fans At The Park To Boo
Perhaps it will help the Phillies that their home fans aren’t at the park to boo them? All kidding aside, they make for a nice stack in the early games. Sandy Alcantara is one of the worst pitchers on this slate, particularly against left-handed batters. His peripherals against LHB were very poor in 2019, as he had a meager 15.8% strikeout rate to go along with a nearly 11% walk rate against them. He has a fly ball lean to go along with an opposing hard hit rate of nearly 40% when facing lefties. Bryce Harper is obviously your elite target here, while value can be had with the likes of Jay Bruce and newly acquired Didi Gregorius.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorius High Upside Strikeout Arm
In the early going, it’s going to be difficult for the high-end starters to pay off massive price tags, as teams are unlikely to push aces after a shortened summer camp and limited game action. For that reason, I will be fading Justin Verlander tonight. Look to gain some leverage in tournaments with other options. The first of those for me will be Lucas Giolito. Yes, he has a difficult matchup against a very, very good Minnesota offense. However, he is also a high strikeout arm that will be owned in the single digits across all the DFS sites tonight. When healthy, Giolito has elite potential, as he showcased last year with a 32.3% strikeout rate. He is an elite play in multi-entry tournament formats.
Leverage This Stack
Andrew Heaney is a good pitcher with plenty of strikeout ability, but he does not qualify as a pitcher that we absolutely need to avoid in DFS. The A’s almost always end up under-owned because they are not a “sexy” offense, and most of their games start at 10 PM on the east coast. Heaney is susceptible to the long ball, and he allowed a hard contact rate over 46% a year ago. Chapman is at the top of the Oakland wish list with his career .252 ISO against LHP, and both Davis and Piscotty can be used as well. I love Oakland mini-stacks in tournaments this evening.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty Elite Upside on DK
In the second half of the 2019 season, opposing hitters posted a .142 batting average, a .208 on base percentage, and a .189 wOBA against Cardinals’ ace Jack Flaherty. The budding ace also had a strikeout rate near 35% with a walk rate of 6% in the second half. He was great in high leverage situations, and he is starting to establish himself as a top five pitcher in baseball. Yes, I am biased as a Cardinals fan, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Pirates do not have a great offense, and Flaherty is one of your top pitching options on this slate. He is particularly appealing on DK, where he checks in as just the sixth most expensive arm.