DFS Alerts

Jack Flaherty & Mike Foltynewicz had great second halves & pitched well in Game Two

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

The Yankeees pounded Jake Odorizzi for nine runs in four innings last time he faced them

Perhaps a surprising thing about Minnesota is that it is considered a positive run environment. However, with temperatures potentially below 60 degrees at game time tonight, that may not really be the case tonight. That said, it’s still virtually impossible to side with Jake Odorizzi tonight, especially in an elimination spot (though anyone expected to go through the order more than once is GPP viable on a four game slate). His overall numbers are fine this year (27.1 K%, 4.14 SIERA, 3.36 FIP, 4.23 DRA, 78.8 Z-Contact%, .296 xwOBA). Even his board high 7.8% Barrels/BBE is not too bad and he ended the season on quite the run, striking out 26 of his last 66 batters, but 44 of those batters were White Sox and Tigers. Here, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (35 GB%) with a career reverse split in a park that generally favors RH power, facing a lineup loaded with such. The good news for Twins fans is that he exhibited a more normal split this year (RHBs .255 wOBA, LHBs .324). Unfortunately, Statcast doesn’t agree (RHBs .309 xwOBA, RHBs .282). Again, that’s not a poor number, but this is the Yankees against whom he experienced his worst start of the season (9 ER, 2 HR, 4 IP) in July. They’re expected to send out six batters above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year and two of the three below that mark are DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+ vs RHP) and Giancarlo Stanton (128 wRC+). What order the Yankees send those batters out in is a more complicated matter because virtually any order makes some sense, but LeMahieu and Aaron Judge (121 wRC+, .251 ISO) are virtual locks at the top of the order, while Edwin Encarnacion (121 wRC+, .266 ISO), Gary Sanchez (123 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (121 wRC+, .256 ISO) are additional premium bats against RHP.

Max Scherzer should get a longer leash than most pitchers in an elimination spot

Normally, Max Scherzer is the very definition of a safe daily fantasy pitcher and let’s not infer for a minute that he’s not the top pitcher on the board tonight, even under difficult circumstances. Those circumstances are outside of tonight’s two negative run environments and against one of the most difficult offenses against RHP in baseball (115 wRC+, 11.1 K-BB%, 17.9 HR/FB, 26.2 Hard-Soft%). The Dodgers seem to sprout quality LH bats with power. In fact, among those in the projected lineup tonight, each of the first four LHBs (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager) are above a .360 wOBA and .230 ISO vs RHP this year. There’s also the prospect of an elimination game hanging over Scherzer’s head. The good news is that he’ll likely get a longer leash than most pitchers do in such a game, not only because he’s Max Freakin Scherzer, but also because the Nationals don’t have an arm to bring out of the bullpen that they’d trust. Strasburg can’t pitch every day and Corbin got lit up last night in relief. Among those with more than three starts, Scherzer tops the board with a 35.1 K%, 16.4 SwStr%, 2.93 SIERA, 2.48 DRA, 78.2 Z-Contact%, and .251 xwOBA plus he costs less than $10K on DraftKings, which may make him that site’s top value despite still being the most expensive pitcher on the board.

Cards/Braves features two highest GB rates in the majors, but lowest K rates on the board

The game in St Louis features the two highest ground ball rates in baseball this year (more than 100 IP), but also the only two strikeout rates on the board lower than 23% in Dallas Keuchel (18.7 K%, 60.1 GB%) and Dakota Hudson (18 K%, 56.9 GB%). They are also the only pitchers on the board above a .300 wOBA (both are above .330) and above 35.5% 95+ mph EV (both are above 38%). While these are clearly the bottom two pitchers on the board from a daily fantasy standpoint and further burdened by the prospect of elimination (in Hudson’s case) or working on just three days rest (in Keuchel’s case), none the less, either must be considered in a secondary role on DraftKings, where they’re the two lowest priced pitchers on the board. One reason is the favorable environment in St Louis, a clear pitcher’s park in the cooler months of the season. Another is the fact that it’s hard to call any pitcher really safe today. Even Max Scherzer fails to fit that description in an elimination game against the Dodgers.

All that said, this is certainly not a spot to avoid batters either. RHBs were right around a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keuchel this season, still with a 59.3 GB%, but much lower than LHBs (.277 wOBA, 70 GB%). The frightening thing here though, is that this St Louis lineup features just three batters above a .150 ISO vs LHP this year and also just three above a 97 wRC+. Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .262 ISO) is just one of two above both and he’s batting seventh. The other, and clearly the most coveted batter in this lineup, is Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .298 ISO).

For the road team, Hudson’s splits have been even worse. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA this year with a ground ball rate (50.2%) nearly 15 points lower. This makes Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) the clear top bat here, but also adds value to cheaper bats in Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO), Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO), who has very similar numbers to Ozzie Albies against RHP (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) this year.

Charlie Morton combines elite strikeouts (30.4%) and contact management (5% Barrels/BBE)

Charlie Morton is just third best on the board with a 30.4 K%, but also keeps the ball on the ground at a decent rate (48.2%). His 5.0% Barrels/BBE is only third best on the board, but the two pitchers ahead of him made just a combined 16 starts this year. He did have his worst start of the season against the Astros near the end of August (4 IP – 6 ER – 4 K), but then allowed a total of nine runs over five September starts after that. Saying that you’d rather be a RHP facing the Astros than a LHP is like saying you’d rather be stabbed than shot. This is still and offense with a 123 wRC+, 18.4 K% and 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP. The negative run environment in Tampa Bay helps somewhat. Considering park, cost (less than $9.5K), potential ownership and upside, Morton should be usable in GPPs, but he’s certainly not the safe play. Dangerous is the fact each of the first seven batters in the Houston lineup are at or above a 125 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs RHP this year and Jose Altuve owns those “low” numbers in both instances. While Morton has a bit of platoon split, LHBs are still below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It probably makes Michael Brantley (146 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP) and Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+, .342 ISO) two of the more interesting plays in this lineup. The former is within $100 of $3.5K on either site. The thing to keep in mind in an elimination game is that the leash is going to be fairly short, almost no matter who’s on the mound.

Astros are heavy favorites (-320) in what projects to be a low-scoring game

This matchup between the Rays and Astros has just a 7.5 O/U with two aces taking the mound in Minute Maid Park.

The Astros currently have a solid 4.98 implied total ahead of facing Blake Snell, whose had a bit of an up and down season that ultimately ended with a 4.29 ERA, 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA, 24.3% K-BB and 1.27 WHIP. Snell is a huge question mark coming into this game as he just recently returned from a two month absence (elbow surgery) on 9-17 and has made 3 starts since, failing to reach 3 innings pitched in any start. It really wouldn’t be surprising for Snell to show rust versus a stacked Astros lineup in this spot and get yanked relatively early. He also has the talent to shut them down. The Rays do have a league-best 3.21 SIERA from their bullpen over the past 30 days, and Snell will likely be on a very short leash. Carlos Correa (.436 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.421), George Springer (.397), Yordan Alvarez (.390), Alex Bregman (.382), Yuli Gurriel (.322), Michael Brantley (.316), Martin Maldonado (.272) and Jake Marisnick (.235) are all in the Astros projected lineup for tonight. Bregman and Springer have been the ‘Stros hottest bats with xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Gurriel (.179) and Alvarez (.251) have been their coldest bats.

The Rays have just a 2.52 implied total vs. Gerrit Cole, who has been insanely good all year and has posted an otherworldly 1.07 ERA / 1.50 FIP / 1.64 xFIP, 48.7% K rate, 4.6% BB rate and 0.64 WHIP over the past 30 days in 42 innings pitched. It is worth noting that those numbers came against terrible offenses (Seattle twice, Kansas City, Texas and LAA without Trout). The Rays faced Cole as recently on 8/28 in Minute Maid Park and Cole did give up 4 earned runs over 6 and 2/3 innings, though he also posted a 14/1 K/BB ratio and 0.66 xFIP in that game. If/when Cole is chased from the game, the Rays will face an Astros bullpen that has a 5th best 3.49 SIERA over the past 30 days. Austin Meadows (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ji-Man Choi (.375), Brandon Lowe (.365), Tommy Pham (.348), Yandy Diaz (.338), Willy Adames (.328), Travis D’Arnaud (.310 since joining TB), Joey Wendle (.295) and Kevin Kiermaier (.293) make up the projected lineup for the Rays tonight. Meadows, Choi and Lowe all have xwOBAs over .440 over the past 2 weeks, while Pham, d’Arnaud and Wendle have been cold with xwOBAs under .260. Most Rays bats are dirt cheap across the industry for this matchup.

Yankees have highest implied total (currently 5.47) out of four teams today

WeatherEdge is projecting a decrease in home runs, and to a lesser degree a decrease in total runs for this matchup between the Twins and Yanks in New York. Still, the game currently has a healthy 9.5 O/U, two runs higher than Rays @ Astros game.

The Yankees will face off versus right-handed Randy Dobnak, who was called up late in the year for the Twins and provided a solid 1.59 ERA / 2.90 FIP / 3.77 SIERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 15.3% K-BB over 28 and 1/3 innings between the bullpen and rotation. Though it’s a small sample, Dobnak has been more effective vs. lefties (.261 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA) than righties (.316 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA). Once Dobnak is done, the Yankees will face a Twins bullpen that has the 3rd best SIERA (3.24) over the past month. Gary Sanchez (.381 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.380), Gio Urshela (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.364), Giancarlo Stanton (.362), Edwin Encarnacion (.356), Gleyber Torres (.327), Brett Gardner (.312) and Didi Gregorius (.286) make up all nine options in the Yanks’ projected order. Stanton and Judge have been the Yankees hottest hitters over the past 2 weeks with xwOBAs over .440, while Gregorius and Torres have been cold, each having an xwOBA below .200.

The Twins will matchup with Masahiro Tanaka and currently have a 4.07 implied total which feels a bit low given how stacked this Twins lineup is. Tanaka posted a middling 4.45 ERA / 4.27 FIP / 4.29 xFIP this year, and a similar 4.32 ERA / 3.97 FIP / 4.20 xFIP over the past 30 days. By xwOBA, Tanaka has been mostly platoon neutral over the past 3 years. When Tanaka is chased from the game, the Twins will face a Yanks bullpen that has an 8th best 3.68 SIERA over the past 30 days. Nelson Cruz (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.386), Jorge Polanco (.355), Jake Cave (.355), Miguel Sano (.350), Luis Arraez (.342), Max Kepler (.340), Eddie Rosario (.326) and Marwin Gonzalez (.313) are all options in the Twins projected order. Cave, Cruz and Sano all have an xwOBA over .425 over the past 2 weeks. Luis Arraez is the only aforementioned name with an xwOBA below .320 over the past 2 weeks. Jake Cave stands out as a very nice value on both major sites, especially given his recent success.

Clayton Kershaw allowed 13 HRs over his last seven starts

Stephen Strasburg just finished up perhaps the best season of his career by peripherals (29.9 K%, 3.32 ERA, 2.13 DRA, .263 xwOBA), numbers that make him seem merely average on this board though. An added attraction is that he transitions to one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. A detraction is that the Dodger offense (115 wRC+, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP) resides in that environment. It’s tough to side with a RHP against this offense with a projected lineup that includes five batters (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith) above a .360 wOBA and .230 ISO vs RHP this year. However, it’s tough to stack up this offense against a pitcher who held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and .150 ISO this season as well. Anything goes on a four game slate, but this may be the least attractive spot on the board today.

Clayton Kershaw showed signs of his former perennial Cy Young candidate form this year, but also struggled down the stretch, allowing 13 of his 28 HRs this season over his last seven starts. He did finish up the season with six shutout innings in San Diego and another scoreless relief inning in San Francisco, but still had a 6.00 FIP over this span and a dangerous proposition against a Washington team with a 111 wRC+ vs LHP this year without even regarding his familiar post-season narrative. While Kershaw’s post-season failures have been emphasized, he’s also had many quality playoff outings as well. However, players will still probably want to look at Anthony Rendon (.429 wOBA, .301 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (.431 wOBA, .239 ISO), who both hammered LHP this year. Considering that Kershaw had virtually no split this year (LHBs .269 wOBA, .174 ISO), Juan Soto (.355 wOBA, .195 ISO) is just a quality bat, who could be a bit under-valued here. This too is not one of the betters spots on the board for either side today.

Lineups in New York will feature an abundance of power

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.

Jack Flaherty dominated his last 16 starts (0.98 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 27.2 K-BB%)

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the second straight day should make Atlanta the most positive run environment on the board again today, though these are projected to be two middle of the board offenses, each within a quarter of a run of four implied runs. Jack Flaherty finished the season with a second half as hot as the weather in Atlanta today. Over his last 16 starts, he had a 0.98 ERA with a 2.32 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and 27.2 K-BB%. His 86.1 mph aEV this season is lowest on the board. Considering that both teams emptied the bullpen last night and the Cardinals have a one game lead, St Louis may be more incentivized to push him deeper into this game. Flaherty is the second most expensive arm on FanDuel, but possibly a strong value on DraftKings for $8.2K, despite the unfriendly conditions. The Atlanta lineup has just a 19.3 combined K% vs RHP this year, according to PlateIQ with only three non-pitcher bats above a 20 K%, so it’s not going to be easy.

Mike Foltynewicz is worst on the board in terms of strikeout rate (21.4%), Z-O-Swing (44.9%), SIERA (4.71), FIP (4.97) and 95+ mph EV (39.5%), many of those stats by a wide margin. However, since returning to the majors in August, he generated a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 23.8 K% over his final 10 starts. He also faces the worst offense on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Folty is certainly a useful secondary arm on DraftKings at the lowest price point on the board ($6.2K). This is also a spot to look at some St Louis bats as well. Dexter Fowler (109 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC+, .228 ISO) may have the most value. RHBs (.328 wOBA, .337 xwOBA) actually performed better against Foltynewicz than LHBs (.307 wRC+, .311 xwOBA) this year.

Top strikeout rates on the board (Verlander 35.4%, Glasnow 33%) in Houston

The game in Houston features the two highest strikeout rates of the day (Tyler Glasnow 33%, Justin Verlander 35.4%) in one of two extremely negative run environments. The issue with Glasnow is two-fold. Initially, he faces the top offense on the board (Astros 123 wRC+, 18.4 K%, 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP). Additionally, he last faced more than 15 batters or threw more than 66 pitches in an outing in May. However, both of those totals occurred in his last start, so perhaps it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’s conditioned to reach five to six innings at around 80-85 pitches, but that’s still unlikely to created enough value for his $8.6K DraftKings price tag. While he’s the cheapest arm on FanDuel ($7K), a quality start is unlikely as well. Also worth mentioning is that this game will feature two of the top bullpens in baseball, making it more difficult to find an advantage with Houston bats, implied for a second best 4.66 runs tonight, although their lineup is stacked with quality bats against pitchers from either side.

Justin Verlander had a 30.4 K-BB% this season with a 2.58 ERA, 2.95 SIERA, 2.51 DRA, and .248 xwOBA. His 77.7 Z-Contact% is the only mark below 80% today. He basically broke the ERA estimators model with a .218 BABIP and 88.4 LOB%. An extreme fly ball pitcher (35.9 GB%), he allowed the third most HRs in baseball (36) and may be the favorite for the AL Cy Young. While Verlander shares the highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (7.8%) with Mike Foltynewicz, it’s still only 2.1 points above Glanow’s lowest mark. To be clear, none of these teams are easy to pitch to today. Only the Cardinals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) are below a 103 wRC+ against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing today. However, aside from the friendly run environment, the Rays are one of four teams with a strikeout split above 21% today (22.9%). Via PlateIQ, today’s specific lineup averages a 21.1 K% vs RHP this year. Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on the board (by over $1K on DraftKings), but is also the top overall arm on the board. Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi and Brandon Lowe all exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP if you’re looking for some potentially low owned power, but Verlander has absolutely no overall weakness against LHBs (.239 wOBA, .229 xwOBA this year). At 2.84 implied runs the Rays have the lowest team total on the board by a full half run.

Patrick Corbin had a 30 K% and 16.1 SwStr% in September

While the Nationals (100 wRC+ and a slate low 21 K% vs RHP) and Dodgers (103 wRC+ and a slate high 17.7 HR/FB vs LH) aren’t typically offenses we look to oppose in daily fantasy, this is the game to target pitching in on a two game slate. Walker Beuhler (29.2%) and Patrick Corbin (28.5%) exceed the strikeout rates of the pitchers in Atlanta by about 10 points and are pitching in a much more negative run environment. Corbin finished up September with a board high 30 K% and 16.1 SwStr%, although he did wreck his ERA by allowing three HRs to Cleveland in his last start. The elite strikeout rate did allow Corbin to skirt issues with hard contact this season. His 88.9 mph aEV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE are easily worst on the board, though his .303 xwOBA was second best. The Dodgers don’t hit LHP as well as they do RHPs, but don’t mistake that to believe they aren’t still a quality offense against southpaws. Regardless, Corbin still may be the best value on the board at $400 to $800 cheaper than Beuhler on either site.

Buehler has tremendous upside as well. He struck out 11 or more six times this year and did not struggle with contact as much as Corbin (88.6 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE), but he was also not beyond being prone to the occasional blow up. Eight times, opponents put at least five runs on the board against him, four times since the All-Star break. The Nationals are the most contact prone offense on the board and Buehler is the highest priced. It’s really close between he and Corbin for the top overall spot on the board tonight.

Corbin’s .319 xwOBA vs RHBs is the only wOBA or xwOBA mark above .300 that either pitcher allowed to batters from either side of the plate this season. GPP players are certainly going to want to look at some bats here as well though. A.J. Pollock (134 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Justin Turner (142 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP) are best with the platoon advantage and none run a price tag any higher than Soto’s $4.1K cost on DraftKings. Cody Bellinger (150 wRC+, .319 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are so good it may not matter. The run line for the Dodgers is currently on the rise this afternoon, now eclipsing four implied runs (4.28) to push them past the Cardinals (4.16) for the second spot on the board. The Nationals are well behind the pack at 3.22 implied runs.

Focus on offense in Atlanta with temperatures in the 90s

Temperatures in Atlanta are expected to be the highest they’ve been all season (mid to upper 90s). While this was already the game to target for offense today due to inferior pitching, the weather only makes it more attractive. Dallas Keuchel (18.7%) and Miles Mikolas (18.5%) have essentially the same strikeout rate with the two west coast pitchers tonight both around 10 points higher. Keuchel (23.9%) has a HR/FB 7.8 points higher than Mikolas, the second highest rate on the board, but he also generates grounders at a 60.1% clip with the other three pitchers below 50%. This should help him better deal with conditions. Statcast numbers are basically the same for Mikolas (87.8 mph aEV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE) and Keuchel (88 mph aEV, 6.9% Barrels/BBE).

Both offenses in this game have implied run lines above four with the Braves topping the board by more than a full half run at 4.83. Both pitchers had a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .340 against opposite handed batters this season. While Keuchel dominates lefties (.268 wOBA, .302 xwOBA, 68.8 GB%), Mikolas has been merely average (.307 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) with the platoon advantage.

Your top overall bats today are probably the competing first basemen in this game: Freddie Freeman (158 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP) and Paul Goldschmidt (145 wRC+, .313 ISO). Tommy Edman was better from the RH side (155 wRC+, .272 ISO), but is the second highest priced batter in this game on DraftKings, though just $3.1K on FanDuel. Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .274 ISO) costs a very reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings. DraftKings makes the dynamic even more difficult, where you have to choose two pitchers and Mikolas costs just $5.5K, allowing players to focus on offense, but this remains a very dangerous spot.

Tyler Mahle is another good value arm vs. Pirates

Tyler Mahle has a 5.34 ERA this year, but there are a few indicators that this number is inflated. Mahle also has a solid 4.06 xFIP / 4.22 SIERA, 16.7% K-BB, 46.5% GB rate and .320 xwOBA allowed. Mahle has been much better vs. righties over in his career with a .298 wOBA allowed and 17.5% K-BB, compared to a .391 wOBA allowed and 8.6% K-BB vs. lefties. Fortunately, he is set to face just 2 lefties in the Pirates lineup this afternoon. With their 3 best hitters out of the lineup (Bell, Marte, Reynolds), the Pirates have just 1 batter in their lineup with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .310 on the year. Mahle is very affordable with a $7.2k price tag on Draftkings and $6.5k tag on Fanduel, and projects to see pretty low ownership on this slate despite the great matchup. Mahle also gets a park upgrade going from Great American to PNC. The Pirates currently have a 4.16 implied total vs. Mahle and the Reds this afternoon.

Dillon Peters has allowed .373 xwOBA to RHB over past month

Though the Astros have clinched home field advantage through the World Series, they’ll still play their starters this afternoon in what looks to be a great spot. They’ll face Dillon Peters, whose 4.72 ERA looks pretty lucky when you look at his 5.40 xFIP, 43.8% hard contact rate, .349 xwOBA allowed, 8% barrel rate and 88.8 MPH aEV. The Astros have completely mashed lefties this year to the tune of a league-leading 130 wRC+ this year, and have plenty of good options in their order this afternoon. Jose Altuve (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yordan Alvarez (.394), Martin Maldonado (.386), George Springer (.383), Alex Bregman (.379), Aledmys Diaz (.340) and Yuli Gurriel (.324) are all great options today. Bregman and Diaz have both been hot with xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Altuve looks like the best value in the lineup, batting 2nd at just $4.6k on DK / $4.1k on FanduelThe Astros have a healthy 6.04 implied total vs. Peters and the Angels.