DFS Alerts

Matchup-Based SP2

The low end of the pitching spectrum is never fun at this stage of the season, so we are forced into uncomfortable value. Jon Lester has really struggled in the second half, but he is generally capable of decent performances against bad teams. The current state of the Pirates lineup is awful. Despite the Cubs being mired in a seven game losing skid that has effectively dashed their playoff hopes, I like Lester as a value arm who can pitch deep into a game tonight.

O's and Jays responsible for 36 runs last two nights.

The O’s and Jays have slugged their way to 36 runs over the last two nights and why stop now. Gabriel Ynoa of the Cubs has just a 13.4 K% with an ERA and estimators all above five. His 89.9 mph aEV is third worst on the board. The Toronto lineup is thinning out with injuries up top, but they still offer nine projected batters above a .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Those who add a wRC+ above 100 include Cavan Biggio (121 wRC+, .229 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Reese McGuire (154 wRC+, .264 ISO), who could be the real value here below $4K on DraftKings. Billy McKinney (81 wRC+, .200 ISO) is even cheaper and has a 219 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa and Toronto is fifth on the board with a 5.77 implied run line.

On the other side of this affair, Jacob Waguespack allowed three runs over five innings to the Yankees last time out and that was his best start in a month. His numbers don’t stand out as poorly as Ynoa’s, but he has an ERA and FIP above seven over the last month with all estimators above five for the season behind a 9.9 K-BB% and .348 xwOBA. The Orioles have a lower implied run line, but still a respectable 4.73, but Waguespack has a substantial reverse split with RHBs over 65 points higher by wOBA (.366) and xwOBA (.377). Trey Mancini (120 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Hays (256 wRC+, .485 ISO) are batters of interest here. The latter with a very small sample, but still a .391 xwOBA that’s best among projected batters in this lineup vs RHP.

Motivation = Money

At this point, we need to give a huge boost to teams that have something to play for. The Indians are one of those teams, as they are neck and neck with the Rays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland owns a massive team total here against Ross Detwiler, and their primary hitters are great plays here. Lindor and Santana are your best options against lefties, while you can look to value at the bottom of the order to round out a GPP stack. The recently activated Jose Ramirez also makes some sense as well.

Salary Is All That Matters

Tonight’s slate is headlined by two ace pitchers in ideal matchups, and plenty of obvious high end bats to spend on. The key is finding some value bats to make everything else work. Outside of stacks, second base is a place we can save some funds with Robinson Cano. The Mets have remained in the playoff hunt for one more night, and they face Robert Dugger, who has been historically awful against left-handed batters through his first six career starts. This jabroni has walked 11 lefties while striking out just seven, and allowing 50% hard hits in the process. Everything is either a walk or a hard hit. Robinson Cano may be old, but he still doesn’t strikeout, and he still hits the ball hard.

Struggling Cubs have some value against lowest strikeout rate on the board (Dario Agrazal 12.1 K%)

The Cubs are technically still playing for something, at least for one more day, though they’re not doing a very good job of it. Dario Agrazal has been a strong contact manager (86.3 mph aEV, 28.2% 95+ mph EV are both top two marks on the board), but he also owns the lowest strikeout rate (12.1%) with a 5.08 ERA and estimators all more than one half run higher. Daily fantasy players may have no choice but to side with cold Cubs’ bats here, those that remain healthy at least. Agrazal has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in eight straight starts. He actually has a reverse split (RHBs .410 wOBA, LHBs .302) with the gap closed a bit by Statcast, though still substantial (.368, .325). This is where the absence of Kris Bryant hurts and power suppressing environment of Pittsburgh against RHBs helps, but not enough. Willson Contreras (122 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Castellanos (108 wRC+, .215 ISO) are still expected to supply RH power in the top half of this lineup, while Anthony Rizzo (151 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (122 wRC+, .294 ISO) are both useful from the left-hand side in this spot. All but Contreras actually have a wRC+ above 110 over the last week, suggesting the fault in this collapse lies in other spots. The Cubs (5.42) are currently the lowest of nine teams above 5.1 implied runs tonight.

Don't Overthink It

We’re running out of days to use my favorite phrase, but with Jacob deGrom at home against the Marlins, I can use it at least one more time – Don’t Overthink It! This is deGrom’s last start of the season, and with the Mets not mathematically eliminated, they have no reason not to let him go. He has elite skills across the board, and on top of high strikeouts and low walks, he has thrown seven full innings in 11 of his last 12 starts. He is as matchup proof as they come, but throw in a close to ideal matchup against the low power Marlins, this is as good as it gets.

Carlos Correa (back) scratched Tuesday; Aledmys Diaz replaces

Correa has been scratched from the Houston Astros original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to lower back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Aledmys Diaz, who will now play third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Kyle Tucker up to sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Astros lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Tommy Milone on the road this evening.

Marwin Gonzalez (oblique) scratched Tuesday; Willians Astudillo replaces

Gonzalez has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to right oblique tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Willians Astudillo, who will now play first base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Miguel Sano, Jake Cave, and LaMonte Wade up to fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Twins lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Spencer Turnbull on the road this evening.

Nomar Mazara scratched Tuesday; Scott Heineman replaces

Mazara has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Scott Heineman, who will now play right field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Danny Santana and Rougned Odor up to fifth and sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez at home this evening.

Affordable Power

The A’s are a tough matchup for a pitcher like Dillon Peters. Peters is a lefty whose strikeouts have been dwindling and even his overall numbers are below average with just 19.8% strikeouts to righties with a .298 ISO allowed on 42% hard hits and just 38% ground balls. While Matt Chapman has seen his average come down, he’s still hitting the ball hard and in the air, with a massive .303 ISO against lefties this season on 48% hard hits and 48% fly balls. He is under-priced for his power upside on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo.

Ace Skills At A Discount

This is a great slate for pitching with names like Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger up top and guys like Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard in good matchups. But on DK/FDRFT, the skill set that stands out at a discount belongs to Jack Flaherty. Flaherty’s strikeout ability competes with Scherzer and Clevinger, at 33.4% in the second half and with his continually improving control, he’s been able to pile up innings, going eight full innings in three of his last four starts. His upside looks a little underpriced relative to the likes of Cole, Scherzer and Clevinger.

Lourdes Gurriel (illness) scratched Monday; Jonathan Davis replaces

Gurriel has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Monday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jonathan Davis, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Blue Jays batting order but, most notably, bumps Randal Grichuk up to third, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Toronto faces off against right-hander Chandler Shepard at home this evening.

Caleb Smith is an extreme fly ball pitcher (26.9 GB%) with a decreasing strikeout rate

Citi Field is just one of two non-controlled environments tonight and the weather is expected to play a part. Temperatures are warmer than usual for this time of year (above 80 degrees) with winds blowing out to center up to 20 mph. The pattern is so rare that Weather Edge doesn’t have any matching conditions. Caleb Smith would likely be the more negatively affected pitcher if Citi Field were to become a neutral or better run scoring or power environment. While his 27.4 K% and 79.1 Z-Contact% are top three marks on the board, he has just a 26.9 GB%. He’s been able to generate a near league average 15.8 HR/FB due to a power suppressing home park. His 10.9% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Then there’s also the fact that he’s collapsed down the stretch. He has just a 21 K% over the last month with a 6.08 ERA and .342 xwOBA. His only quality start in his last six was against the Royals at home. The Mets have a 108 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB at home, a 112 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP and a 117 wRC+ and 27.1 HR/FB over the last seven days. Implied for 5.31 runs, the Mets are just third on a ten team board, but could be the most potent offense on the board. Each of the first six batters in the Mets’ lineup is above a 125 wRC+ vs LHP this season with Amed Rosario (128 wRC+, .206 ISO), Pete Alonso (143 wRC+, .350 ISO), J.D. Davis (134 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Todd Frazier (144 wRC+, .267 ISO) all above a .200 ISO. Wilson Ramos (153 wRC+, .184 ISO) doesn’t quite reach that mark, but may be the top catcher on the board tonight anyway.

Cheap Lefties

Adam Wainwright has been awesome in real life over the past month, with just one run allowed in four September starts. While he’s clearly doing something right, there has been a ton of good fortune involved as well, as he’s sitting with a 0% HR/FB rate and .271 BABIP over the past month despite a dangerously low 14.8% strikeout rate and average 39.6% hard hits allowed. Batted balls won’t go his way forever, and his 44% hard hits and .356 wOBA allowed to lefties this season puts the cheap Arizona bats like Jake Lamb (53% HH) and Josh Rojas (41% HH) into play tonight for savings.

Elite Value At This Salary

Toronto appears okay with using Billy McKinney at leadoff down the stretch (assuming Bichette remains sidelined with his concussion), and he’s priced near the minimum everywhere. So, he’s leading off, minimum salary, and facing the Orioles’ poor pitching staff. There’s a high likelihood of five at-bats, and even though I’m not convinced that McKinney is all that good, I’ll take my chances with that. Oh, and he also hit two home runs yesterday. Don’t over-think that one. He makes all the sense in the world as a core value tonight if he grabs that leadoff spot again.