DFS Alerts
Eovaldi is way too cheap ($4100) on Draftkings
Nathan Eovaldi gets a start tonight versus the Orioles at home and is dirt cheap on Draftkings ($4100) and cheap on Fanduel as well ($6500). Eovaldi has now made 7 starts since transitioning to the rotation, his most recent one coming against the Rays where he threw 6 innings, striking out 6 and allowing 3 earned runs. He has a middling 4.20 xFIP / 4.40 SIERA over the past month, but also has a very good 28.4% K rate that gives him lots of upside. The Orioles have just a 87 wRC+ with a 22.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have a .316 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month. On Draftkings, Eovaldi is a no-brainer play as he is projected as the best PTS/$ play by far, on a slate that is very depleted of pitching options. Expect him to see very high ownership. He is also a great play on Fanduel even at an increased price. The Orioles currently have a 4.41 implied total vs. Eovaldi and the Red Sox.
Dallas Keuchel has a .367 xwOBA allowed in away games this year
Pitching is a mess on this slate and Keuchel is one of the “better” pitchers going tonight against the Mets. As a result he will likely see decently high ownership, but if you’re looking to get super contrarian and gain some leverage the play might be to stack against him. Over the course of his career, Keuchel has been much worse in road starts. Since 2015 Keuchel has posted a 2.70 ERA / 3.09 FIP, 15.5% K-BB and .270 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 4.14 ERA / 4.21 FIP, 12% K-BB and .314 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Keuchel also has pretty wide platoon splits as he’s posted a .303 xwOBA vs. RHB compared to a .250 xwOBA vs. LHB in that span, and the Mets’ lineup projects to have only 2 lefties tonight. Keuchel’s xwOBA allowed vs. righties in away games this year is an ugly .379 over 164 plate appearances. JD Davis (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Pete Alonso (.396), Wilson Ramos (.361), Amed Rosario (.332), Todd Frazier (.325) and Michael Conforto (.303) are all potential options. Rosario and Davis project to hit 1-2 in the order and each cost only $4k on Draftkings. Ramos and Frazier are nice values as well as they are $4.4k and $3.6k, respectively. The Mets have just a 4.14 implied total but figure to see very low ownership and are worth a shot in tournaments tonight.
Other tagged players: J.D. Davis, Amed Rosario, Wilson Ramos, Todd Frazier Velasquez has 3.93 SIERA, 20.8% K-BB over past 30, gets nice matchup vs. MIA
On what is looking to be a pretty brutal slate for starting pitching, Vince Velasquez looks undoubtedly like one of the better options today. Velasquez’s 3.93 SIERA over the past 30 days ranks 3rd best (min 20 IP) and his 28.7% K Rate ranks 2nd best among 19 qualified starters on the slate. Overall, VV has a 4.76 ERA / 4.74 xFIP with a 1.38 WHIP and 16.9% K-BB. VV gets a matchup with a Marlins team that has a 2nd worst 78 wRC+ and 25% K rate vs. RHP this year. They also have just a 24th ranked .290 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month. Velasquez has been much better vs. righties over his career (.319 wOBA allowed, 19.1% K-BB vs. RHB compared to .349 wOBA allowed, 13.5% K-BB vs. LHB) and will face just 2 lefties in the Marlins’ order tonight. Despite the great matchup, Velasquez comes in at just $7.6k on Fanduel and a dirt cheap $6.2k on Draftkings. The Marlins currently have just a 3.92 implied total.
Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA & xwOBA against Felix Hernandez
The A’s and are about a quarter of a run behind the Astros tonight (5.8 to 5.56) atop the board tonight, but with the Astros having already announced that they’re resting some of their top bats tonight and Oakland still playing for their post-season life in an appointment with Felix Hernandez, the green and gold may be the better way to go tonight. Hernandez has the highest aEV on the board (91.3 mph) and his 9.6% Barrels/BBE is second worst as he sits on a 6.51 ERA, 6.67 DRA, 5.95 FIP and .364 xwOBA. There’s nothing positive to be found in his body of work this year. In fact, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. That works fine for the A’s, who generally run out a predominantly right-handed lineup with Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP) being the top half of the lineup left-handed exception. Marcus Semien (137 wRC+, .244 ISO), Ramon Laureano (131 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Matt Chapman (124 wRC+, .246 ISO) have handled same-handed pitching nearly equally well. Seth Brown (170 wRC+, .226 ISO) could find himself in the middle of this lineup and costs less than $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, Felix Hernandez
Zack Wheeler has allowed exactly one earned run in five straight starts
Zack Wheeler caps off an often frustrating and inconsistent season tonight. In the end though, his 3.99 ERA matches up with his 4.27 SIERA, 3.86 DRA and .302 xwOBA, although his 3.47 FIP is a half run lower and backed by an 86.3 mph aEV that’s second best on the board with just 5.3% Barrels/BBE. Wheeler is your top pitcher on the board tonight. He’s allowed exactly one earned run in five straight starts and has completed seven innings in three straight. The only concern is that without any motivation tonight, will the Mets allow him to complete his normal workload in which he’s averaged a full three times through the lineup this year. The matchup is the best on the board. The Marlins feature on batter above a .150 ISO or a .315 wOBA vs RHP this year in their lineup tonight. Wheeler has a 23.2 K% this year and tonight’s Miami lineup combines for something similar, but seven innings of one run ball again is not only strongly in the realm of possibilities tonight, but it feels like it should almost be the expectation here. Wheeler is the SP1 or SP2 by price tag on either site, but still not much above $10K.
Joe Musgrove is pitching well (26.7 K%, .249 xwOBA last 30 days), facing depleted lineup
The name on the front of the uniforms of the lineup Joe Musgrove will be facing might say Cubs, but it might be hard to recognize the bodies inside them. Not a single regular appears in this Chicago lineup tonight, which features just two batters above a .185 ISO and also two above a .322 wOBA vs RHP this year. Musgrove has been pitching some of his best baseball of the season and may have been one of the top values on the board regardless, but the fact that the Cubs are virtually waving the white flag here only enhances his outlook. Over the last month, he’s generated a 2.86 ERA, 3.48 SIERA, 26.7 K%. His .249 xwOBA over this span is even 47 points better than actual results. Musgrove costs less than $8K on either site.
The Clear #1 Arm
Whenever you have a good pitcher going against the Marlins on a short slate, you play that pitcher. It was the case with Jacob deGrom last night, and he did not disappoint with seven two-hit innings. While Wheeler is not the same caliber pitcher as deGrom, he is still a pitcher with above average strikeout potential and solid overall numbers facing a bad team. He makes so much more sense than paying up for the likes of Sean Manaea or Dylan Cease on a five game slate. Wheeler is very good against RHBs, and Miami’s projected lineup has just two lefties in it. As such, Wheeler is my clear #1 tonight.
Upside Stack With Motivation Angle
At this point, I will 100% play the motivation angle when it comes to building lineups. The A’s and Indians fit that mold on tonight’s slate, as they are part of a three-way race for the two AL Wild Card spots. They get a fine matchup with low strikeout risk against an aging Felix Hernandez, and I really like the power bats here. It hasn’t been the best of years for Matt Chapman, but we are now getting him at a discounted price tag, and he still owns a solid .352 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP this year. I think he gets back on track with a long ball tonight. Matt Olson fits the same mold, while you could use the likes of Profar and Brown for value.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Jurickson Profar, Seth Brown After whiffing 14 Brewers, Dinelson Lamet has the highest strikeout rate on the board (32.8%)
The Dodgers are just one of those offenses we don’t like to oppose in daily fantasy, especially against RHP, whom they have a 113 wRC+, 10.9 K-BB% and 17.5 HR/FB against. Yet, maybe tonight is a spot where we can reconsider. Aside from the guys at the very top (deGrom & Bieber) this slate is full of unappealing mid and low range options, uncertain workloads and poor matchups. Dinelson Lamet struck out 14 Brewers last time out and his 32.8 K% now tops the board. He’s also allowed more than three runs just twice in 13 starts. He allowed four to each the Red Sox and Braves. He faced the Dodgers in his first outing back from Tommy John surgery, striking out seven of 21 batters, allowing a reasonable three runs on just three hits. Lamet has a .289 xwOBA without a single ERA estimator above 3.7, confirming the quality work he’s done since coming back. His 86.8 mph aEV is also fifth best on the board. So, while this is a highly dangerous and volatile spot, this is also a high upside spot where we can expect minuscule ownership.
Astros have a 131 wRC+, 6.3 K-BB% and 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP
Yusei Kikuchi somehow navigated through five innings of one run ball the last time he was in Houston after allowing four home runs to these Astros the previous time he faced them. That latter performance may be more in line with what we should expect tonight. The Astros have elite peripherals against LHP (131 wRC+, 6.3 K-BB%, 16.1 HR/FB) and Kikuchi has not exceed a single strikeout in four of his last five starts (the outing in Houston being the odd exception – five Ks). Batters have a .401 xwOBA against him over the last 30 days, while he has a 23.1 HR/FB at home, a supposedly power suppressing ball park. Despite the negative run environment, Houston is in a virtual tie for the top implied run line tonight (6.39). RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Kikuchi and the Houston projected order features just a single batter (Michael Brantley) below a .200 ISO vs LHP). This should be a nice batting practice session as the Astros prepare for the post-season. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa all exceed a 150 wRC+ vs LHP in addition to the power.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Brantley, Robinson Chirinos, Carlos Correa Andrew Heaney has struggled (20 ERs last 19.1 IP, .368 xwOBA last 30 days)
Andrew Heaney is sporting an elite strikeout rate at 28.9%, but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher (32.8 GB%), who often struggles with the HR ball (18.2 HR/FB, 10% Barrels/BBE). He’s allowed 20 runs over his last 19.1 innings and has a .368 xwOBA over the last month. He struck out eight of 25 A’s he faced in his only start against them in late June, but also allowed five runs. This Oakland offense has a 115 wRC+ against LHP this year with just a 19.3 K% and 27.2 Hard-Soft%. A 5.1 implied run line has the A’s just 10th on the board tonight and could see them go under-owned in this spot. RHBs have just a .306 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against Heaney this year, but also 13 of his HRs allowed. Matt Olson (96 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP) is an interesting play here as LHBs have a .381 wOBA (.328 xwOBA) and six HRs in just 88 PAs. Marcus Semien (142 wRC+, .215 ISO), Matt Chapman (126 wRC+, .297 ISO), Mark Canha (121 wRC+, .242 ISO) and even Khris Davis (143 wRC+, .260 ISO) should all have some value in this spot.
Other tagged players: Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Mark Canha, Andrew Heaney, Matt Olson Despite injuries, Atlanta lineup should remain potent vs LHP
Mike Montgomery has walked six with as many strikeouts over his last 14 innings (12 ERs). He has allowed the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph EV (45%) and has the second highest xwOBA on the board (.388). Batters from either side of the plate have tattooed him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .350. An Atlanta lineup likely lacking Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman tonight is still above five implied runs (5.28) and contains several bats who hammer LHP. Injuries may give Adam Duvall (198 wRC+, .424 ISO), Austin Riley (138 wRC+, .403 ISO) or Adeiny Hechavarria (123 wRC+, .304 ISO) a chance to move up the lineup. All are small sample sizes, but all are also below $2.5K on FanDuel. Josh Donaldson (124 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (189 wRC+, .306 ISO) are your more established bats, who will most certainly bat towards the top of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Mike Montgomery, Adeiny Hechavarria, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley Ross Detwiler has a .397 xwOBA with the second highest rate of Barrels/BBE (10.7%) on the board
Ross Detwiler has generated ground balls at a 52.5% clip when contact has been made against him this year and that’s about the only positive concerning his performance. A 6.2 K-BB% results in not a single estimator below 5.37 and he’s still allowed 18 HRs in 59.1 innings with the second highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (10.7%) and a .397 xwOBA. If you can imagine it, it’s been even worse over the last month (10 BB%, 8.05 SIERA, .465 xwOBA). To make matters worse (or better depending on your perspective), the forecast calls for winds blowing out to left-center and a significant boost to both run scoring and power tonight. Among the first eight batters in the projected lineup, Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .185 ISO), Yasiel Puig (110 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (96 wRC+, .178 ISO) are the only batters below a .200 ISO vs LHP this season. Stack the heck out of this lineup, implied for 6.39 runs, in whatever ways fit.
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Jose Ramirez, Ross Detwiler LHBs have exceeded a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Robert Dugger
Some of Robert Dugger’s flaws have been masked by the park in Miami, as he’s allowed just a 12.5 HR/FB rate despite a 38.4 GB% and 40% 95+ mph EV. He’s struck out just eight of the 79 batters he’s faced on the road and was blasted at Citi Field for two HRs and four walks in his major league debut. It’s true this is also a severely negative run environment, but winds are expected to be blowing out to left in a park where the Mets still have a 108 wRC+ and 16.9 HR/FB in. Dugger has a massive platoon split through six starts with LHBs over 100 points higher by wOBA (.374) and xwOBA (.402). Brandon Nimmo may have just an 84 wRC+ and .147 ISO vs RHP this year, but has an OPS above 1.000 since returning from a neck injury. Michael Conforto (141 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP) homered twice last night and is suddenly swinging the hottest bat in the lineup with a 234 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Jeff McNeil (150 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Robinson Cano (112 wRC+, .213 ISO) are both projected in the top half of the order for an offense above five implied runs tonight (5.43).
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Robert Dugger, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil Jacob deGrom has allowed one run with 28 Ks over his last 21 innings
Jacob deGrom is one of several Aces on the board tonight, who are still pitching for something. Although the Mets can be eliminated without even losing tonight, that slight sliver should still be enough motivation for deGrom, who can also wrap up his second straight Cy Young with a strong effort tonight. That the wind is expected to be blowing out to left tonight is not a concern for three reasons: Citi Field will still likely be a negative run environment, batters from either side of the plate fail to exceed a .120 ISO vs deGrom this year, and the projected Miami lineup features one batter above a .150 ISO vs RHP this year and Austin Dean isn’t scaring anybody. DeGrom has completed seven innings in seven straight starts, allowing a single run with 28 strikeouts over his last 21 innings. The Marlins are below an 80 wRC+ and exceed a 24 K% on the road and vs RHP this year. DeGrom is your top pitcher tonight and likely still an exceptional choice even at his $12K price point.