DFS Alerts
Cream of the Crop
This is not a good matchup on paper for Verlander, but the season stats are a bit skewed now that the Angels are without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, their top two hitters. While I do have some concerns about his leash, Verlander needs 17 strikeouts in his final two starts to finish with his first 300-strikeout season, and just 11 strikeouts to reach 3,000 for his career. Verlander is my preferred SP1 today in cash games.
Top Stack
Boston has a good matchup against the leftie Ryan Yarborough. Yarborough is a solid pitcher but Boston is also pretty good against lefties. They may go a little over looked but they have 4 guys with 200 ISO or better. I would start my stack with Martinez, Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez in GPPs.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez
Favorite One Off
Austin Meadows has a good matchup against Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has given up 5 home runs in his last three games and has a 380 ISO to lefties. Meadows has been crushing with double digit DK points in 8 of his last 10 games. This season he has 285 ISO, 400 wOBA, and 43% hard hit rate against right handed pitching.
SP In A Great Matchup
Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely up and down this year. This year in three starts against the Tigers 25 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched averaging 21.5 DK points. The tigers are 1st in strikeout rate at 26.6% and 29th in ISO to right handed pitching. I will take the risk in this plus matchup for Lopez.
Jose Berrios could go overlooked on main slate despite great spot vs. Royals
With so many great pitching options on this slate, Jose Berrios could potentially be overlooked despite having a lot of factors in his favor tonight at home vs. the Royals. Berrios has always been a much better pitcher in home starts: he has a 3.51 ERA / 3.23 FIP, 18.2% K-BB and .294 xwOBA in home starts, compared to a 4.85 ERA / 4.99 FIP, 12.5% K-BB and .320 xwOBA allowed in road starts over his career. The Royals have just a .297 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month, and have just an 84 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals have just a 3.39 implied total and the Twins are -350 favorites to win, so Berrios has a very good chance of getting the ‘W’ bonus. Berrios also will be working with a pitcher friendly umpire in Jim Wolf and a plus pitch-framer in Jason Castro. Though there are plenty of SPs to choose from tonight, it’s worth getting at least some exposure to Berrios tonight if you are playing multiple lineups given the great spot that he’s in.
Twins have the highest implied total of the slate vs. Sparkman
The Twins have a whopping 7.11 vs. Glenn Sparkman tonight which is easily the highest total on the slate. Sparkman has really been bit by the home run ball this year, as he’s allowed an ugly 2.06 HR/9 which is part of the reason for his inflated 6.02 ERA / 5.89 xFIP / 5.64 SIERA line. He doesn’t miss many bats (12.9% K rate, 7.6% SwStr) and simply does not matchup well with this Twins team that has the 2nd most home runs this year with 201. Nelson Cruz (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.383), LaMonte Wade (.356), Jorge Polanco (.355), Miguel Sano (.352), Luis Arraez (.346), Jake Cave (.336), Eddie Rosario (.324) and Marwin Gonzalez (.315) are all potential options in the Twins’ order. Arraez is one of the best bargains on the slate, leading off with a price of $3.9k on DK and $2.6k on FD. Towards the bottom of the order Gonzalez, Cave, Castro and Wade all find themselves with very cheap pricing on each site are great value plays as well.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, LaMonte Wade, Miguel Sano Indians bats are decently affordable in nice matchup vs. Vargas
Vargas has had an up and down year that’s ultimately amounted to a 4.48 ERA / 5.45 xFIP / 5.24 SIERA with a 1.34 WHIP, 1.23 HR/9 and 9.7% SwStr. With an average velo of 84.3 on his fastball that he uses 50% of the time, it’s surprising his numbers aren’t even worse. Vargas has struggled to a 7.17 ERA and .353 xwOBA over the past 30 days and gets a matchup tonight on the road in Cleveland versus a good Indians lineup. Jordan Luplow (.396 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Carlos Santana (.374), Franmil Reyes (.354), Francisco Lindor (.342), Yasiel Puig (.329) and Oscar Mercado (.313) are all good options. With the exception of Lindor ($5.3k), no Cleveland hitter is more than $4.7k on Draftkings. Mercado (batting 2nd, $4.3k), Puig (batting 4th, $4.2k), Luplow (batting 5th, $4.5k) and Reyes (batting 6th, $3.8k) are all decent values. Pricing is similar on Fanduel, where Lindor and Santana are $4k+ but Puig, Mercado, Luplow and Reyes are all great values there as well. The Indians currently have a 5.90 impled total and don’t project to be too chalky on this slate.
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana Wade Miley is way too cheap on Draftkings ($5700)
Thanks to two horrific starts on September 5th and September 10th where Miley allowed a combined 12 earned runs over just 1/3 inning pitched, his price has taken a sharp decrease despite being in the midst of a very solid season. Though Miley was due for some regression, it’s not all that surprising that his contact-manager style of pitching yields higher estimators than his ERA. Despite a 4.46 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA, Miley has posted a 3.71 ERA that is well out-performing the estimators for a 2nd straight year. Miley’s .297 xwOBA allowed, .330 xwOBACON and 4.7% barrel rate are all among the best in the league among qualified starters and solidify his “contact manager” label. Miley gets a great matchup tonight with an Angels team that doesn’t have much pop without Trout in the lineup. They have just a 64 wRC+ and 26.6% K rate since Trout has been out of the lineup. They’ll have just 4 hitters in the lineup tonight with an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .290 this year. Miley is dirt cheap on DK at $5.7k and is also affordable on Fanduel at $7.5k. The Angels currently have just a 3.19 implied total vs. Miley and the ‘Stros.
Max Fried has a 25.5% K-BB and 2.58 xFIP over past 30 days, gets great matchup tonight
It has been a pretty impressive season for 25 year old southpaw Max Fried. He’s posted a 4.25 ERA, 3.34 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA with a 24.8% K rate, 6.9% BB rate, 1.21 HR/9, 53.2% GB rate and 11.5% SwStr. He also has a miniscule 4.6% barrel rate and .302 xwOBA allowed. Fried has a 6.39 ERA over the past 30 days, but this number seems very fluky as he’s also posted a 2.58 xFIP, 3.06 SIERA, 25.5% K-BB and .313 xwOBA allowed in that same time frame. Fried gets a great matchup tonight versus a bad Giants offense that has a .302 xwOBA vs. LHP over the past 30 days. They also have just an 87 wRC+ and 23.3% K rate on the year vs. LHP. Fried has gone 5+ innings in 14 of his past 15 starts as the low barrel rate, HR/9 and walk rate all help to him to be a pretty consistent arm. He’s priced at just $8.5k on Draftkings and $8.6k on Fanduel, making him one of the better projected PTS/$ arms on the slate and. He’ll likely see decently high ownership across all contests. The Giants currently have just a 3.64 implied total vs. Fried and the Braves.
Miguel Cabrera (knee) scratched Saturday; Brandon Dixon replaces
Cabrera has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Dixon, who will now play left field and slot into the second spot in the order, which bumps Jeimer Candelario up to fourth and slides Harold Castro and Christin Stewart down to third and fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Ivan Nova at home this evening.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Other tagged players: Brandon Dixon
One Off Bat
Miguel Sano has a great matchup against Glenn Sparkman. Sparkman has struggled all year and Sano has the type of power to win in this matchup. Sano this year against right handed pitching has a 290 ISO and a 51% hard hit rate. Sano is worth the expensive price tag in this matchup where hopefully people don’t spend up and we get him at a lower ownership.
Top Stack
The Dodgers are my favorite stack of the day. The Dodgers have 5 guys in their projected lineup with a 208+ ISO to right handed pitching. Gonzalas is a low strikeout pitcher who struggles giving up walks, especially to lefties with a 18% walk rate this year. The Dodgers have a few patient lefties with power in Muncy, Bellinger, and Pederson.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy Bounce Back Spot
Max Fried has struggled in his last two starts. He gets a little better matchup against the Giants. The Giants this year against left handed pitching are 26th in ISO and 27th in wOBA. Fried’s numbers are solid with an 11.7% swinging strike rate and a 24% strikeout rate. He may see a lower ownership with his last two starts but this could be a good bounce back spot for him.
Lots of value and upside bats in Wrigley on the afternoon slate
The wind is projected to be blowing out to left field at up to 18 MPH this afternoon in Wrigley, and so WeatherEdge is seeing a huge bump in home runs and overall production for this game between the Cardinals and Cubs. For the Cardinals, they’ll face Jose Quintana who has had a very up and down year which has been mostly down of late. Over the past 30 days, Quintana has posted a 7.65 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.95 WHIP, .371 wOBA allowed and 5% K-BB. Paul Goldschmidt (.446 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Marcell Ozuna (.367), Matt Carpenter (.347), Yadier Molina (.346), Dexter Fowler (.325), Paul DeJong (.311) and Tommy Edman (.304) are all potential options. Fowler is leading off at jut $4k on DK, while Goldschmidt ($4.8k) and Ozuna ($4.5k) are good values considering the matchup and environment. Besides Edman at $4.8k, the rest of the Cards’ bats are $4.3k or less. The Cubs also get a nice matchup vs. Dakota Hudson who has a 3.35 ERA , but a 4.99 FIP, 5.04 SIERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.5% K-BB and 40.4% hard contact rate are all indicators that he’s not nearly as good as the ERA suggests. Nick Castellanos (.406 xwOBA vs. RHP this year since joining CHC), Anthony Rizzo (.405), Kyle Schwarber (.374), Jason Heyward .349), Victor Caratini (.344), Nico Hoerner (.333), Kris Bryant (.330) and Ben Zobrist (.308) are all good options here. Cubs’ top of the order bats will cost anywhere from $4.5k to $5.2k on DK, while guys like Zobrist, Caratini and Hoerner are all in the $3k range. This game as a O/U of 12 and batters should see very high ownership on the afternoon slate.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna Josh VanMeter (illness) scratched Saturday; Phillip Ervin replaces
VanMeter has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Phillip Ervin, who will now play left field and slot directly into VanMeter’s vacated leadoff spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Zack Wheeler at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Reds Media Relations via Twitter Other tagged players: Phillip Ervin