DFS Alerts

Surging Lefty Finishing Strong

Sean Manaea has now spun three very good outings since his return this season. I’ve been encouraged by the fact he’s reach 95 or more pitches in his last two starts, so he’s not on any restrictions. The A’s are also fighting for a playoff spot, so they are incentivized to keep winning. Manaea is an odd case in the sense he was never a big strikeout pitcher prior to this season, holding a career 19.6 K%. This season through 18 innings, he’s already struck out 21 batters. I will point out he’s had matchups against the Tigers and Rangers, two strikeout heavy teams, so it will likely regress over time. But he gets the Rangers again here, this time at home. The Rangers are a team we can continue to pick on with left-handed pitching as they have the 2nd highest K% in the Majors against southpaws. Manaea is the one I’d want to start my cash game builds with as my SP1 as I love the matchup and his recent form.

Good Hitter Headlining Weak Position

Max Muncy is good. Chi Chi Gonzalez is not. While Gonzalez has struggled to miss bats (13.5 K%) this season, Muncy has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a 127 wRC+ and .256 ISO. Aside from just being an awesome hitter in a favorable matchup, Muncy is the clear cut option at a weak second base position which is what makes him my favorite overall hitter on the slate.

Top Cash Game Option

Walker Buehler is the most expensive pitcher on the mound on Saturday night but he seems to be worth it in a home matchup against the Rockies. Buehler has been stellar this season and owns the slate’s top strikeout rate (29.4%) by a wide margin – sans Sean Manaea who has only pitched 18 innings this season. Additionally, the matchup is a good one for Buehler as the Rockies rank third worst in the league with an 83 wRC+ versus RHP. The Rockies projected lineup has three hitters (not including pitcher) in it with a strikeout rate north of 26.5% against RHP over the last two years giving Buehler a strong strikeout floor and ceiling combination.

Jean Segura (ankle) scratched Friday; Maikel Franco replaces

Segura has been scratched from the Philadelphia Phillies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to an ankle injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Maikel Franco, who will now play third base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Brad Miller, Scott Kingery, and Adam Haseley up to fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Phillies lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Shane Bieber on the road this evening.

Matt Chapman (132 wRC+) and Khris Davis (136 wRC+) cost less than $4K vs a LHP

Mike Minor has been an incredibly effective pitcher for the Rangers this season, as his 3.33 ERA confirms. While traditional estimators are around a run higher, a 3.69 DRA and .298 xwOBA backed by just 30.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV confirm his quality work. He also gets a substantial park upgrade tonight. However, he may be a pitcher daily fantasy players can look to attack tonight. Minor’s efficiency has waned down the stretch. He’s likely to clear 200 innings tonight. His total number of innings pitched from 2015 through 2018 is less than 280. He’s allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts and has just a 16.9 K% over the last 30 days with a 5.23 ERA and 5.21 SIERA. Last time out, these A’s took him deep three times. It was in Texas and surprisingly only the second time he’s faced them this season (4 runs in six innings in Oakland in April), but this is an offense that has pummeled LHP all season long (113 wRC+, 19.4 K%, 27 Hard-Soft%). There’s a decent chance they get to Minor again here. Matt Chapman (132 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Khris Davis (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) have been potent bats against southpaws and each cost less than $4K on DraftKings. Rostering both would offer high upside on the offensive side with a potential path towards high priced pitching as well. Mark Canha (113 wRC+, .220 ISO) is right at the $4K mark as well. With Minor potentially wearing down due to a heavy workload, Oakland bats may offer some value even in a negative run environment.

Additionally, Mike Fiers has had the beard knocked right off his face over his last three starts (16 runs over 7.2 innings, including eight HRs). This isn’t how regression typically works, but he has a .437 xwOBA over the last month and that’s still 61 points better than his actual results. He lasted eight batters against these Rangers in Texas last time out, but those considering Ranger bats should realize it’s a below average offense and his leash will be very short here with the A’s fighting for a wild card spot.

Zack Greinke has increased his ground ball rate and has a 14+ SwStr% in three of last four starts

Zack Greinke didn’t significantly increase his spin rate or velocity immediately upon landing in Houston. In fact, his strikeout rate has decreased to 19.5% in 49.1 innings, but he’s retained excellent control (4 BB%) with a significantly increased ground ball rate (52.3%) and has an ERA (3.10) with estimators below four (3.50 FIP, 3.92 xFIP). He’s gone at least six innings in all but one start for the Astros, missing by only a single out. Perhaps the Houston rub is starting to show on him though, because he’s generated a 14+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts. The Angels have a reputation as a contact prone offense. Throw all season long stats for this team out the window with a lineup minus Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. The team has a 70 wRC+ and 21.5 K-BB% over the last seven days. Tonight’s projected lineup features one batter above a .200 ISO vs RHP and just three below a 25 K%. This is now a high upside spot in a favorable park for Greinke, who’s been showing more positive signs recently. At $300 from $9.5K on either site, Greinke is outside the five most expensive arms on either site as well.

LHBs have a .406 wOBA and .425 xwOBA vs Jordan Zimmermann this season

Jordan Zimmermann is a below average pitcher with exceptional control, but too much hard contact (9.0% Barrels/BBE), which pushes his 6.32 ERA well above estimators just below five, though a 6.19 DRA and .365 xwOBA. He has a .424 xwOBA at home this season, but more importantly, LHBs have a .406 wOBA and .425 xwOBA against him this year. The White Sox don’t offer a lot from that side, but Yoan Moncada (149 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP this season) looks like a beast tonight. He has a 215 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week and is a great one off choice tonight. Another interesting bat from the left side would be Zack Collins (94 wRC+, .255 ISO). He’s a cheap catcher in a great spot and hopefully finds himself in a decent lineup spot, but considering the matchup and price, he may be playable in any spot.

Charlie Morton is undervalued on FanDuel ($9.5K) due to Boston injuries

Charlie Morton has wilted a bit down the stretch. His strikeout rate is down over the last 30 days (24.8%) with a 5.47 ERA, 4.36 SIERA and .313 xwOBA. The underlying metrics have been a bit better than the results and still a bit better than average. He hasn’t really been bad outside one beating in Houston over this span. His 30 K%, .278 xwOBA, and 5.0% Barrels/BBE are all top three marks on the board tonight. The Red Sox are not generally an offense that daily fantasy players like to roster pitchers against, but this is not the same lineup that’s produced a 110 wRC+ and 11.4 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Expected to remain without Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the projected lineup combines for a .336 wOBA, .189 ISO and 12.7 K-BB% vs RHP this season. Still not terrible marks, but they go from a well above average run environment to a below average one tonight under the dome in Tampa Bay. Morton may not have a ton of value as the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($11.1K), but costs just $9.5K on FanDuel, where four pitchers are at least $800 more expensive.

Anibal Sanchez is a strong contact manager (86.2 mph aEV) in a great spot (Marlins 78 wRC+ vs RHP)

Anibal Sanchez is an exceptional contact manager (86.2 mph aEV, 27.6% 95+ mph EV, 10.7% HR/FB, 11.2 Hard-Soft% are all top three on the board) with below average peripherals (10.4 K-BB%). This, along with a .264 BABIP, has kept his 3.86 ERA more than a run below his SIERA & xFIP and about half a run below his FIP and DRA. He’s in a great spot to continue that contact suppression tonight in Miami. The Marlins have a sub-12 HR/FB at home and vs RHP and may even provide a few extra strikeouts (78 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). The projected lineup for the Marlins does not include a single batter above a .150 ISO or .325 wOBA vs RHP. Sanchez is just slightly above $8K on either site and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. The upside may be a limited, but we should expect some length and it would truly be a surprise if he were hit hard by the Marlins tonight.

Don't Stop Now

Nelson Cruz and the Twins just keep rolling along with huge power up and down this lineup. Cruz hit two more homers last night, and with his .434 ISO and tremendous 58% hard hit rate against lefties, a low strikeout pitcher like Eric Skoglund is in for a rough night. For his career, Skoglund has managed just a 14.1% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. Start with Cruz, and add in some Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver if possible. Garver’s salary makes him a standout option on FD at the C/1B position.

Jacob deGrom leads the board in strikeout rate (31.6%) and average exit velocity (86.1 mph)

The most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($11K), but the SP2 on DraftKings ($11.6K), it’s tough not to call Jacob deGrom the top pitcher on pitching rich slate tonight, where six pitchers reach at least $10K on at least one site. He leads the board with both a 31.6 K% and 86.1 aEV. He’s been ever better over the last 30 days (2.57 ERA, 2.78 SIERA, 2.73 FIP, and .229 xwOBA). While Cincinnati is certainly a large park downgrade for him, the current forecast suggests winds may be blowing in a bit from right, which should help him mitigate the home run boost afforded by this park, along with his elite contact management skills. The projected lineup for the Reds only has two batters above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year anyway and both Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino are right-handed. Batters from that side have just a .245 wOBA and .125 ISO vs deGrom this year. The Reds lack LH power at this point and have been the coldest offense in the majors over the last week via wRC+ (55) with a 26.1 K%. DeGrom is not the only high priced pitcher worthy of strong consideration tonight, but there’s a good chance he’s the best.

Righties In The Outfield

The Indians just miss my top tier of overall offenses, but they have three good right-handed outfielders at very reasonable salaries that can fit in all formats tonight. Drew Smyly brings some strikeout upside, but he can get wild, and he also allows a ton of hard contact and fly balls, giving the top six bats in the Indians lineup home run upside, likely with runners on base. Franmil Reyes is my top choice on DK/FDRFT while Yasiel Puig is a little better priced on FD/Yahoo. You can also add Oscar Mercado to this mix, particularly on FD at another low salary.

Cheap With Potential Lineup Boos and Platoon Advantage

Lorenzo Cain left Thursday’s game with an ankle injury which could result in Hernan Perez drawing a top five spot in the Brewers order in a favorable home matchup against Steven Brault and the Pirates. Perez is a neutral hitter at best but has shown some pop against left-handed pitching at times and will likely see run scoring + producing opportunities as Milwaukee has one of the top implied run totals on the slate (5.5).

Competent Seattle offense in a strong spot against Aaron Brooks (.354 xwOBA, 6.84 DRA)

Aaron Brooks will be your primary or bulk pitcher. The performance has been poor no matter what you want to label his role tonight (9.9 K-BB%, 6.06 ERA, 5.04 SIERA, 6.84 DRA, .354 xwOBA). The Seattle offense has remained competent no matter what it’s looked like this year. Despite not having a lot of power, each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for the Mariners reaches at least a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Brooks this year with batters from either side of the plate above a .220 ISO. Shed Long (100 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP) would certainly be an interesting bat in the leadoff spot. He has a 208 wRC+ with a lineup leading 50% hard hit rate over the last week. J.P. Crawford (110 wRC+, .202 ISO) is quietly asserting himself in the upper part of this lineup. Omar Narvaez (129 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Dan Vogelbach (133 wRC+, .272 ISO) are potent middle to lower part of the order bats for an offense implied for 5.34 runs tonight, seventh best on the board.

Home Run Prone Pitcher Could Be In Trouble Against Powerful Lineup

Jaime Barria has given up the 9th most HR/9 among all pitchers with 75 innings pitched this season, even in this year of the juiced baseball, which could spell trouble facing a power-hitting Houston lineup that ranks second in slugging percentage and third in ISO this season. Houston is a very strong -350 favorite in this game with a nine run total, giving them a 5.7+ implied run total. I’ll be targeting the Houston power hitters in this one, starting with Yordan Alvarez and George Springer, as well as Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.