DFS Alerts
Hoffman could be a nice value arm vs. Padres
One glance at his 7.35 ERA and it’s hard to even consider rostering Hoffman, but it does come over a small sample of 45 innings on the year, and 6 of his 10 starts have been in Coors. He has a 5.17 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA which suggests he’s been much better than the ERA does. Hoffman also has a respectable K-BB% of 12.8% and his 9.9% SwStr isn’t exactly terrible, either. Hoffman will get the start in pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight versus a Padres team that just isn’t very good, especially without Fernando Tatis Jr. Since Tatis Jr. was placed on the IL (8/14), the Padres have a league-worst .267 xwOBA vs. RHP with a 24.7% K rate. Their projected lineup doesn’t have a single batter with an xwOBA greater than .330 vs. RHP on the year, and just 5 batters have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .290. Hoffman is obviously not without risk, but he gets a cake matchup here and is priced $5.5k or less on both major sites tonight. He is especially intriguing on DK where he can be paired with a guy like Verlander to free up some salary for decent bats. The Padres currently have an implied total of 4.82 for tonight.
A’s bats in a good spot vs. Zimmerman
It’s been another tough year for Zimmerman, who has so far posted a 6.03 ERA , 4.83 xFIP, and 4.94 SIERA with a 11.4 % K-BB, 1.43 WHIP, 41.3% hard contact rate and 8.5% SwStr. Zimmerman has also allowed a .362 xwOBA, 8.8% barrel rate and 89.3 MPH aEV per Statcast. Zimmerman has been a bit worse vs. lefties since 2017, but overall has been bad vs. hitters on either side of the plate. The Tigers also have a 6th-worst 4.94 xFIP out of their bullpen over the past month, further sweetening the matchup for Oakland. Matt Olson (.411 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Mark Canha (.370), Matt Chapman (.355), Marcus Semien (.352), Seth Brown (.333), Ramon Laureano (.328), Jurickson Profar (.309) and Khris Davis (.301) are all good options in the A’s projected order. Profar has been on fire over the past 2 weeks with a .444 xwOBA; Mark Canha has also swung it well with a .420 xwOBA over that same time frame. Profar is a nice value at just $2.9k on Fanduel and $3.9k on Drafktings. Khris Davis has struggled this year but continues to be priced down at just $3.5k on DK and $2.7k on FD. Seth Brown is another good value, coming in at $3.3k on both sites. The A’s currently have a healthy 5.87 implied total vs. Zimmerman and the Tigers.
Other tagged players: Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Jurickson Profar, Khris Davis GPP Stack
I like the Texas Rangers as a stack against Aaron Brooks. The Rangers have a few good lefty bats to throw at Brooks, who this year is giving up a 370 wOBA, 243 ISO, and a 38% hard hit rate to lefty bats. Brooks is a low strikeout guy and he has a 8.6% swinging strike rate which is the third lowest on the slate. Guys like Santana, Odor, Calhoun, and Choo are the 4 I would want to start my stack off with in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana, Rougned Odor
Favorite One Off
Pete Alonso is a great one off today against the lefty Drew Smyly. Alonso is hitting lefties great this year with a 372 ISO, 397 wOBA, and a 52% hard hit rate. Smyly is still giving up a 249 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate to righty bats. Alonso has 3 home runs in his last 5 games and we might get him at a lower ownership with his expensive price tag so he should be a great GPP play.
Pivoting At The Top
Yu Darvish gets a Brewers team that is 8th in strikeout rate this season. He has shown great control in his last 10 games as he has only given up 3 walks. He has a 13.1% swinging strike rate and 28.9% strikeout rate this season. Darvish has that upside we want in tournaments and we hopefully can get him at lower ownership especially if everyone ends up paying up for Verlander.
SP1 In GPPs
Andrew Heaney is so expensive on DraftKings that no one will want to pay for him. On FanDuel he is much more reasonably priced at 8800. He gets a great matchup against the White Sox who are 4th in strikeout rate this season at 25.6%. Heaney has had two double digit strikeout performances in his last 3 games. This is more of a FanDuel specific play but if you’re making multiple lineups he will be extremely low owned on DraftKings.
Andrew Heaney has a .274 xwOBA allowed and 32% K rate over past month
Heaney has looked great since coming off the IL, posting a 2.73 ERA / 3.27 SIERA with a 32% K rate, 5% BB rate, 0.94 WHIP and .274 xwOBA allowed. Heaney has actually begun to have better results since 6/25, when he committed to throwing his changeup more and his sinker a bit less. Through 6/24 with just a 5.8% usage rate on his changeup, he had posted a 5.68 ERA / 5.14 xFIP. Since June 25th, he has posted a 3.40 ERA / 3.72 xFIP while using his changeup at a 19.2% rate.He gets a matchup tonight with a White Sox team that looks solid vs. LHP (101 wRC+) but it has been fueled by a fluky, league-best .343 BABIP. Looking at xwOBA, the White Sox have a 5th worst .305 xwOBA vs. LHP on the season. They also have just an 89 wRC+ and 24.8% K rate over the past 30 days. Heaney is especially attractive on Fanduel, where he carries just an $8.8k price tag. He’s not nearly as valuable on Draftkings where he has a price of $11.5k, though he’s still in play.
Verlander is in another great spot fresh off his no-hitter
Making his first start since a dominant no-hitter where he posted a miniscule .079 xwOBA allowed and a .057 expected batting average allowed with 14 K’s, Justin Verlander is in another great spot versus a bad Mariners lineup. In his age 36 season, Verlander has somehow gotten better and better as the season has progressed, and now holds a 2.56 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 35.1% K rate even despite allowing 1.54 HR/9. He’s been especially dominant over the past 30 days, posting a 2.04 ERA / 2.28 SIERA with a 39.8% K rate, 1.6% BB rate and 0.59 WHIP. Since the trade deadline the Mariners have just a .261 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching, by far the worst in the league. Verlander will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Nick Mahrley. The Mariners currently have just 2.61 implied runs and the Astros are currently -430 favorites in this game, so Verlander has a very good shot at getting the ‘W’. Verlander will cost over $12k on both major sites, but figures to be more than worth the price tonight.
Gio Gonzalez has 18.5% BB rate and 6.52 SIERA over past 30 days
Gonzalez’s horrific BB% and SIERA are by far the worst of any starter today (min. 20 IP). In his last start, Gonzalez made it through just 3 innings, walking 4 batters (30.8% BB Rate) and posting just a 14.3% (!!) zone%. Something seems very off with Gonzalez, and he won’t have much room for error tonight facing a good Cubs lineup in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Since Gonzalez doesn’t project to pitch very deep into this game, it’s worth pointing out that the Brewers’ bullpen has allowed a 9th-worst .329 xwOBA over the past month, as well as a 4th-worst 5.16 xFIP. Nick Castellanos (.420 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kris Bryant (.410), Willson Contreras (.366), Javier Baez (.364), Anthony Rizzo (.350) and Albert Almora Jr. (.287) are all good options in the Cubs’ projected order. On Draftkings, only Rizzo will cost greater than $5k. Ben Zobrist has struggled in limited playing time this year (78 wRC+ in 112 PA) but is projected to leadoff at just $3.8k on DK. Albert Almora has also struggled this year, but has a respectable .314 xwOBA in his career vs. LHP and costs just $3.3k on DK. The Cubs currently have a 4.99 implied total that they could easily surpass tonight.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Javier Baez Slugger Facing Homer-Prone Pitcher
Yusei Kikuchi’s 2.06 HR/9 ratio suggests there may be some baseballs leaving the ballpark here in Houston. Kikuchi is allowing righties to hit with a .363 wOBA against him this season, and he’s likely to face five or six righties here. Even lefties have a .347 wOBA on him, so there’s not much of a dropoff. Yuli Gurriel is questionable with a hamstring injury and the loss of George Springer was already a big one. If the Astros are without Gurriel here the lineup does become watered down, but it also makes the stack cheaper as Aledmys Diaz would likely start (and hold the platoon advantage). Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are priorities, as Altuve has a massive .381 ISO against lefties while Bregman has a .338 ISO. I love Bregman the most in this spot and the Astros are overall my favorite stack of the day.
Lefty Mashing Slugger In A Prime Spot
Paul Goldschmidt is one of my favorite plays on the slate as he has a massive .307 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s affordable and facing a below-average lefty in Steven Brault. My goal is to pay up for pitching at my SP1 spot, meaning I’m not looking to break the bank on my bats. Goldy gives me elite upside without sacrificing too much salary, making him one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Cheap Punt To Make Things Work
I don’t like Jeff Hoffman, but he’s facing a Padres team with the 2nd highest K% and he’s cheap. The mid-tier of pitching is ugly today, and my preference is to pay up for Justin Verlander in a good spot and then just punt all the way down with my SP2 spot. That leads me to Jeff Hoffman, who at least has a decent 21.9 K% on the season. Hoffman isn’t good but I’m just hoping for positive points here in a plus-matchup because Hoffman allows me to get everything I want.
The Ace of All Aces
I could sit here and throw a bunch of Justin Verlander stats at you as to why he’s good – he’s coming off a dominant 14-strikeout no-hitter; he has a 35.1 K%; he’s currently at 257 strikeouts for the season and with (likely) four or five starts projected left for him, he has a real chance to reach the 300 strikeout club. Then there’s the matchup aspect where he faces a Mariners team that’s 5th in K% against right-handed pitching. On paper, this is a smash spot waiting to happen and he’s my SP1 in all formats.
Joc Pederson has a 423 wRC+ with five HRs over the last week
Jeff Samardzija has a 3.61 ERA that’s well below estimators due to a .244 BABIP. He’s generated just 36.3% ground balls with an 89 mph aEV, which has resulted in 8.4% Barrels/BBE. This may play well enough in San Francisco, but it’s unlikely to lead him towards success on the road against the Dodgers (116 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 18.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Samardzija has not yet had the displeasure of facing the Dodgers on the road this season, but his issues with LHBs (.329 wOBA, .344 xwOBA) has to oddsmakers gracing the home team with the third highest implied run line on the board (5.45) currently. The projected lineup for the Dodgers shows five LHBs and aside from Gavin Lux, each of the other four are above a 115 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Joc Pederson (137 wRC+, .330 ISO) has been pure fire over the last week (423 wRC+, five HRs), which Cody Bellinger (170 wRC+, .342 ISO) has been doing all year. Corey Seager (136 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Matt Beaty (136 wRC+, .232 ISO) cost less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Matthew Beaty, Corey Seager, Gavin Lux, Jeff Samardzija
Matt Olson has a 152 wRC+ and .276 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
Spencer Turnbull has seen his velocity and strikeout rate slowly, but steadily drop throughout the season. He’s struck out just 10 of his last 67 batters, allowing 15 runs over 12.2 innings (three HRs) over that span. He has faced the Twins, Indians and Astros over that span, but also gets another tough assignment tonight in Oakland. Over the last week, the A’s have a team 124 wRC+, 4.6 K-BB% and 28.5 Hard-Soft%. Turnbull has allowed some of the hardest contact on the board himself this season (40.9% 95+ mph EV). The A’s have a 5.67 implied run line that’s currently second best on the board. Turnbull has a sizeable platoon split (LHBs .349 wOBA), while he’s handled RHBs well (.299) with xwOBAs just six points higher in each instance. That strongly suggests Matt Olson (152 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a high value bat tonight, but also consider Seth Brown, who has a .353 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $3.5K on either site. Marcus Semien (128 wRC+, .226 ISO), Matt Chapman (124 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Mark Canha (162 wRC+, .265 ISO) have all hit same-handed pitching extremely well. Weather Edge (premium subscription required) also suggests conditions to give the offenses a small bump, which may be enough to turn Oakland into a fairly neutral run environment tonight.
Other tagged players: Seth Brown, Spencer Turnbull, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Mark Canha