DFS Alerts
Felix Hernandez has a .374 xwOBA allowed since returning from IL
On the shelf for over 3 months with a shoulder injury, Felix Hernandez has unsurprisingly struggled in three starts since returning from the IL. He’s posted a .374 xwOBA allowed, 7.24 FIP, 2.6 HR/9 and 6.9% K-BB in those 3 starts, and threw just 34 of 70 pitches for strikes in his most recent outing. Felix has been in a sharp decline for a few years now as his ERA each year has gone from 3.82 -> 4.36 -> 5.55 -> 6.02 from 2016 to this year. He doesn’t figure to last very long in this game, so Astros’ bats project to get plenty of plate appearances vs. a Mariners’ bullpen that has a middling .321 xwOBA allowed over the past month. Yordan Alvarez (.415 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.396), Michael Brantley (.377), Alex Bregman (.368), Aledmys Diaz (.311) and Josh Reddick (.305) are all good options in the Astros’ projected order. Springer has a .437 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, but will be making (if he plays) his first start since being carted off after crashing into the wall a few days ago. Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez will also require a $5k+ price on Draftkings, while Brantley comes in at $4.4k. The Astros currently have a healthy 6.55 implied total.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Aledmys Diaz
Nice Combination of Safety and Upside
The Baltimore pitching staff has been one that we have attacked all year, and I like Choo as a core play out of the leadoff spot today. He should push for five at bats and has solid career numbers against RHP. Throw in a matchup against a mediocre starter and a bad bullpen, and he makes sense as a solid option in any DFS format.
Top Arm on a Slate Full of Aces
I like Jack Flaherty a lot, but it’s just difficult to place anyone else as the primary ace on this slate. Cole has been a strikeout machine all year long and has 96 strikeouts over 59 2/3 innings in the second half of the season. He hasn’t slowed down one bit and has a massive 38.7% strikeout rate for the year. Throw in elite metrics across the board and an elite home matchup against the Mariners, and you have all the ingredients for another elite outing.
Elite All Around Hitter
Once again, I will highlight a Houston hitter, as their power bats are in an elite spot against a declining pitcher in Felix Hernandez. Felix has posted an ERA over six this year and is allowing hard contact at a massive 43% clip. That puts all the Houston power bats in play, and I always like siding with the all around potential with Bregman, who has a 16% walk rate, a 12% strikeout rate, and elite power numbers for the year. He should do plenty of damage today.
Load Up On Lefties
You know the rule with Disco Stu, play him against right-handed heavy teams and avoid him against left-handed heavy teams. The Diamondbacks can get left-handed heavy when they want to, so he’s tentatively someone I’m avoiding (especially in Great American Ballpark). DeSclafani has allowed lefties to have a .867 OPS against him compared to a .629 OPS by righties this season. Josh Rojas is batting 2nd today, is cheap, and one of six lefties in this D-Backs lineup making him a nice target in cash games.
Montgomery is too cheap on Draftkings ($4.4k) in great matchup
You can’t find yourself in a much better spot than Montgomery does this afternoon, facing a terrible Marlins’ lineup in the friendly confines of Marlins Park. Montgomery has been serviceable this year, posting a 4.42 ERA, 4.24 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA with a 1.54 WHIP, 10.7% K-BB, 48.7% GB rate and 9.8% SwStr between the bullpen and rotation. The Marlins have just a 78 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. LHP on the year and have just an 81 wRC+ and 26.4% K rate over the past 30 days. Mike Montgomery likely won’t have the platoon advantage vs. a single batter in Miami’s order, but it shouldn’t matter much as Montgomery has actually been slightly better vs. righties (.321 wOBA allowed vs. LHB, .310 wOBA allowed vs. RHB for his career). Montgomery is insanely cheap on Draftkings at $4.4k and will likely be a popular play on there given the matchup and obvious value. He’s much more expensive at $7.8k on Fanduel, though he’s still in play in GPPs. The Marlins currently have just a 4.00 impled total vs. Montgomery and the Royals.
Ace Worth Paying For
Once we start factoring in matchups, Gerrit Cole stands atop this list. Not only does he have the highest K% of all pitchers on today’s slate, but he also gets the friendliest K upside matchup. On all sites, I’m doing my best to pay up for Gerrit Cole as my SP1 in cash games. He has the highest strikeout upside in terms of K% and matchup, and I’m willing to prioritize that on this slate.
Gerrit Cole is worth the price vs. terrible Mariners offense
There are some high-priced aces to choose from on this slate (Cole, Scherzer, Syndergaard and even Clevinger) but Cole is arguably in the best spot if forced to choose just one. Cole is in the midst of a career year which has seen him post a 2.81 ERA, 2.61 xFIP and 2.76 SIERA with a 0.95 WHIP, 38.7% K rate, 6.3% BB rate and 16.4% SwStr. He also has a .248 xwOBA allowed, 6.4% barrel rate and 87.3 MPH aEV. Cole gets a start vs. the Mariners this afternoon, who have been atrocious with a league-worst .257 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching since the trade deadline. Cole will have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Hunter Wendelstedt. The Astros are -490 favorites, so Cole has a very good shot at getting a ‘W’. The Mariners currently have just 2.45 implied runs for this matchup. Cole is $12k or more on each major site, but arguably has both the highest floor and ceiling on the slate and figures to be well worth the price.
Sneaky Stack
The Mets are a nice tournament stack today against Vince Velasquez. The mets have 5 guys in their projected lineup with over 212 ISO to right handed pitching. Velasquez can get a little out of control at time and he is giving up 47% hard hit rate and 46% fly ball rate. They may be giving Velasquez a short hook today but I still think guys like Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, J.D. Davis is the way I would start my stack.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis
Favorite One Off
Ketel Marte is one of my favorite plays on this slate. In his last 5 games he has 12 hits, 12 RBIs, and 3 home runs. He gets Anthony DeSclafani who struggles much more to the left side of the plate giving up a 362 wOBA, 237 ISO, 46% fly ball rate, and 44% hard hit rate. The way Marte is swinging the bat he is worth the high price tag and we should get a lower ownership.
SP1 Pivot At The Top
Mike Minor should be a contrarian option at pitcher. He gets the Orioles who strikeout a little more to left handed pitchers with a 24% strikeout rate. This is the 6th highest in the MLB this season. Minor has a 24% strikeout rate this season with a 11.2% swinging strike rate. We should see a lower ownership on Minor in a good matchup.
Great Hitting Environment For Lefties
The Nationals are sporting a 4.7 implied run total and I think it’s low for the wind somewhat blowing out in Atlanta against an attackable pitcher in Julio Teheran. Historically, he has significantly worse splits versus lefties and the Nats will likely have three in their lineup priced under $4k on DraftKings in Adams, Cabrera & Parra. In large-field GPPs you can pair these three with fellow lefty Juan Soto and either Turner or Suzuki who can fill a scarce C/SS position for a 5-man stack at a $21k combined price.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Gerardo Parra
Orioles are a good stack option vs. Rangers’ Hernandez
23 year old Jonathan Hernandez will be making the first start of his career for the Rangers tonight vs. Baltimore. Hernandez recently made his debut on August 21st, but has been pitching out of the bullpen and has totaled just 5 and 2/3 innings pitched, so there isn’t much to draw from his MLB stats thus far. Over 96 innings in AA this year, Hernandez posted an unimpressive 5.16 ERA / 4.30 FIP / 4.00 xFIP with a 13.6% K-BB. Projection systems vary a bit on him, as they have his ERA projected anywhere from 4.75 to 5.75 going forward. Trey Mancini (.340 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Chance Sisco (.329), Anthony Santander (.325), Jonathan Villar (.323), Renato Nunez (.320), Dwight Smith Jr. (.309), Rio Ruiz (.300) and Hanser Alberto (.291) are all in play tonight. Orioles bats are especially cheap on Fanduel, where Mancini is the most expensive bat at $3.6k and all but 3 hitters are under $3k. On Draftkings they are a bit pricier, as the top 3 batters in the projected order (Villar, Mancini, Santander) are all over $4.5k and only 4 hitters are below $4k. Santander has been the Orioles hottest bat over the past 2 weeks with a .406 xwOBA, followed by Mancini with a .378 mark.
Other tagged players: Anthony Santander, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez Lefty Masher
Paul Goldschmidt had a slow start to the year but has started to heat up as we near the end of the regular season. Despite what is looked at as a down year, Goldy has continued to absolutely crush left-handed pitching with a 139 wRC+ and .300 ISO against southpaws this season. PNC Park is typically tough on right-handed power but the matchup is good enough to overlook the slightly negative context.
Top SP Option
Justin Verlander is Saturday night’s top pitching option by a wide margin and his expensive price tag is far from prohibitive on a slate expected to be full of value thanks to expanded rosters. It’s not fair to expect Verlander to come close to the 61.7 DK/79 FD point no-hit performance he had in his last start but that helps highlight the upside Verlander has in a favorable home matchup. Seattle’s projected lineup has a ton of strikeouts in it with a collective 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and three hitters with strikeouts rates north of 31%.