DFS Alerts
Lucas Giolito has a 40.6 K% over the last 30 days
Lucas GIolito’s 40.6 K% over the last 30 days pushes his 32 K% on the season to best on the board tonight. In fact, his 3.64 SIERA and 2.85 DRA also are best on the board, along with his 77.3 Z-Contact% and .280 xwOBA, which is right in line with actual results. As such, Giolito is the most expensive pitcher on the board on DraftKings ($12.1K), but is more than $1K less than Kershaw on FanDuel. Gioilto has failed to go at least six innings or strike out at least seven batters just once each since the All-Star break. A misconception here might be that the Angels don’t strike out. In fact, they have a 19.9 K% vs RHP. However, as they’ve added bats like Ohtani and Upton back throughout the season, along with a few trades and minor league call ups, they’ve put a bit more pop in their lineup, but also a few more strikeouts. Five of the nine batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above a 21 K% vs RHP this year. There are certainly enough strikeouts in this lineup for Giolito to thrive.
Framber Valdez has a 21.6 K% and 67.9 GB% since his first start
Framber Valdez generates ground balls (67.9%) with a 21.6 K% as a starter, so it’s natural with a great defense behind him (Astros .269 BABIP) that he should have some success. Yet, he has a 7.32 ERA despite a 3.94 xFIP over this span (35.2 innings) due to an astounding 57.1 HR/FB. He’s allowed just 14 fly balls over this span and eight of them have left the yard. The other issue is a 12.3 BB%, but at least the HR rate can’t possibly be sustained and the walks are factored into the xFIP. Further good news is that over the last 30 days, Valdez has a .322 xwOBA, a mark 54 points better than actual results. Valdez is not a cash game play, but at less than $7K, he does have some upside in this spot. The projected Seattle lineup has four batters above a 26 K% vs LHP this season and also only four above a .165 ISO against southpaws this year. Valdez is a high risk GPP play, just two starts removed from striking out eight of 25 Angels.
Astros have a 134 wRC+ and 6.1 K-BB% vs LHP
Tommy Milone has allowed just three runs in 15.1 innings against Houston this year, seemingly the only LHP in baseball who’s held them in check (134 wRC+, 6.1 K-BB% vs LHP). On second check though, he’s struck out just 10 of 58 Astros and his 38.2 GB% suggests some luck that they’ve only left the yard once against him. In fact, Milone has allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE despite an 86.7 mph aEV. His strikeouts have dropped to just 12% over the last month (23 IP), a period over which his xwOBA has climbed to .341. He’s allowed three home runs in five of his last nine outings. It would be quite the shock should he repeat past accomplishments against this dominant Houston offense. The Astros don’t yet have a team run line because the Mariners haven’t announced tonight’s opener, but there’s a good chance they’re at the top of the board. The negative run environment in Houston is not much of a penalty tonight without very many extremely positive run environments in play tonight and some difficult weather conditions around the league. The firm of Altuve (199 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Bregman (182 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Gurriel (132 wRC+, .278 ISO) should feast and the fact that LHBs (.353 wOBA, .343 xwOBA) have hit Milone harder than RHBs (.312 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), along with the likelihood of a right-handed opener, certainly keeps Michael Brantley (122 wRC+, 104 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+, .359 ISO) in play as well. Look for the Astros to get some pay back on Milone tonight.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Tommy Milone Clay Buccholz has allowed a higher rate of Barrels/BBE (12.6%) than strikeouts (12.1%).
Clay Buchholz has allowed just four runs over 11.2 innings since returning from a nearly four month layoff despite walking five and striking out just six of the 41 batters he’s faced. He has a higher rate of Barrels/BBE (12.6%) than strikeouts (12.1%). Both are worst on the board. His 5.28 FIP is the lowest of all of his estimators with an 8.03 DRA and .376 xwOBA being the most damning. The negative run environment shouldn’t handicap the Rays tonight due to the lack of extremely positive run environments available on the slate, along with some offensively suppressive weather conditions around the league. While LHBs have a .374 wOBA against Buchholz this year, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 xwOBA against him. An incredibly cheap Joey Wendle (90 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the leadoff spot again would be a top value bat. Austin Meadows (147 wRC+, .267 ISO) has a 264 wRC+ over the last week and would have value at less than $5K on DraftKings. Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .200 ISO) is projected to bat cleanup. The Rays do not yet have a team run total due to the uncertainty of their own pitching plans, but it would be a shock if they weren’t eventually a top third or even quarter of the board offense tonight.
Other tagged players: Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Clay Buchholz Clay Buchholz has a .376 xwOBA allowed and 4.7% K-BB this year
Over 36 and 1/3 innings this year, Buchholz has posted a 5.45 ERA, 5.49 xFIP and 5.78 SIERA with just a 12.1% K rate, 7.4% BB Rate and 8.1% SwStr. He’s also allowed a .376 xwOBA, 12.6% barrel rate and 85.6 MPH aEV per Statcast and is averaging just 89 MPH on his fastball. Buchholz will get the start tonight vs. a Rays offense that has struggled a bit of late (93 wRC+ last 30 days) but has plenty of good options vs. RHP. Buchholz has mostly been platoon-neutral since 2016 and can be targeted confidently from either side of the plate. Austin Meadows (.383 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nate Lowe (.371), Ji-Man Choi (.369), Avisail Garcia (.339), Willy Adames (.331), Kevin Kiermaier (.297) and Joey Wendle (.281) are all options in the Rays’ projected order. Choi and Meadows have been their hottest hitters, both coming in with an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Wendle has not been great this year but projects to lead off and costs just $3.3k on Draftkings. Garcia is also a nice value, projected to bat 3rd at just $3.9k. Mike Zunino (.282 xwOBA vs. RHP, $2.6k on DK) and Kean Wong (116 wRC+ in AAA, $2.2k on DK) are both super cheap salary relief options at the bottom of the Rays’ order.
Other tagged players: Nathaniel Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Avisail Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle
Dodgers lineup has value and upside at home vs. Samardzija
Samardzija has seemingly put together a solid year with a 3.61 ERA / 4.91 xFIP / 4.81 SIERA and 1.11 WHIP, but he’s been helped a lot by an extremely friendly pitcher’s park in Oracle Park, as well as having very good fortune on balls in play (.244 BABIP this year compared to .290 career BABIP). His Statcast numbers show that he is actually giving up the highest aEV (89 MPH) since Statcast started in 2015. Samardzija has been more vulnerable to lefties, allowing a .344 xwOBA vs. LHP compared to a .292 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2017. Cody Bellinger (.444 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Joc Pederson (.359), Matt Beaty (.355), Corey Seager (.325) and Gavin Lux (188 wRC+ in AAA over 232 PA this year) are all left-handed bats in the Dodgers’ projected order for tonight. Also in play without the platoon advantage are Justin Turner (.366), Will Smith (.363) and AJ Pollock (.300). At the top of the order, Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd at just $3.9k on Draftkings, Turner is projected to bat 3rd at just $4.4k and Pollock 5th at just $3.8k. Beaty is projected to hit 6th at $3.9k, and Gavin Lux will cost just $3.3k and will likely bat 8th. Pederson and Bellinger are the only bats over $5k on Draftkings. Pederson has been their hottest hitter with a .475 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. The Dodgers have a healthy 5.45 implied line for this matchup.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, Joc Pederson, Matthew Beaty, Justin Turner Affordable Power In The Middle
There are a handful of teams on this slate loaded with power bats against power prone pitchers. In looking to get as many of those bats as possible, I’ll take any savings where I can get them. The Dodgers lefty power is one of the prime spots of the night against the .244 ISO of Jeff Samardzija. By all means, play Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson if you can get there, but Corey Seager keeps the power upside intact in a good lineup spot with his .227 ISO and 41% hard hits against righties.
Power Begins Here
The Twins lead the league in home runs, and tonight they face a strike throwing fly ball pitcher in Adam Plutko who has allowed a 2.06 HR/9 this season. The top five bats in the Minnesota lineup all have plenty of power, but I’ll start with the lefties, where Plutko carries a dangerously low 10.3% strikeout rate. Max Kepler leads the charge with a .285 ISO on 44% hard hits in addition to his high contact rate.
Lucas Giolito has a 40.6% K rate and .279 xwOBA allowed over the past month
There are plenty of value pitchers on this slate, but on sites that use two SPs the question is finding another pitcher to pair a value arm with. There aren’t any aces that really jump off the page, but one guy that is at least intriguing is Lucas Giolito, who is in the midst of a breakout season. After posting a 6.13 ERA and 5.46 xFIP with a 16.1% K rate over 173 innings in 2018, Giolito has improved drastically with a 3.30 ERA / 3.72 xFIP / 3.64 SIERA with a 32% K Rate and 15% SwStr in 2019. Giolito has looked even more dominant over the past 30 days, posting a 2.73 ERA / 2.64 SIERA with a 40.6% K rate and 17.8% SwStr (!). Giolito faces the Angels tonight, who aren’t exactly an ideal matchup with a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year and just a 19.9% K rate. However, they do have just a 95 wRC+ and 23% K rate over the past 30 days. If Giolito can limit damage to Mike Trout (.455 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) and Ohtani (.352), the Angels have just one other batter (Kole Calhoun, .337) with an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP this year. Giolito is a much better value on Fanduel where his price is just $10.6k compared to a $12.1k price on Draftkings, but he is certainly in play on both sites with huge upside. The Angels currently have a 4.30 implied total.
Joe Musgrove is too cheap ($6K DK) once again
Joe Musgrove has thrown three quality starts in his last four efforts, while his .311 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 39 points better than actual results. Estimators call him an average pitcher (4.45 SIERA) and he doesn’t have a ton of upside with just a 20.8 K%, but for some reason, he seems to be consistently underpriced. There are many more interesting pitchers on the board, but for those playing on DraftKings, his $6K price tag helps comfortably fit virtually any other pitcher on the board in the same lineup. As for the matchup, the Cardinals have a 92 wRC+ and 15 K-BB% vs RHP this year and although they’ve lost a number of PAs to the IL, only two batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above a .190 ISO vs RHP and Paul Goldschmidt isn’t one of them. This is not a lineup to fear, especially in a park that suppresses RH power because they lean predominantly right-handed. Same handed batters have just a .304 wOBA and .159 ISO against Musgrove this year. This is a favorable spot in a friendly home park for a low priced, league average pitcher.
Jorge Lopez is dirt cheap despite great matchup
Jorge Lopez is in arguably the best possible spot a starting pitcher can be in, facing a terrible Marlins’ lineup in pitcher’s haven Marlins Park tonight. Lopez does have an ugly 6.61 ERA in 98 innings (13 games started out of 34 appearances) but he also has a 4.61 xFIP, 4.54 SIERA, 13% K-BB and 45.6% GB rate that might indicate he’s had a bit of bad luck this season. One of Lopez’s problems has been keeping the ball in the yard as he does have an ugly 1.93 HR/9, but the Marlins are unlikely to take advantage of this as they have by far the least homeruns vs. RHP (85, the next closest is the Royals with 102) with just a 2.2% HR rate. Overall, the Marlins have a 76 wRC+ and 25.3% K rate vs. RHP this year. Their projected lineup has just 2 batters who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .310 on the year. Lopez is just $6k on Fanduel and even cheaper at $5.3k on Draftkings where he makes for a value SP2 option on tonight’s slate. Lopez has been back and forth between the bullpen and rotation over the past month and likely will have a slightly limited pitch count, but he doesn’t need too many pitches to hit value in this spot. The Marlins have just a 4.24 implied total vs. Lopez and the Royals tonight.
Dylan Bundy is one of the top contact managers on the board (31.1% 95+ mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE)
Believe it or not, Dylan Bundy has been one of the top contact managers on the board this year. His 31% 95+ mph EV is second lowest and one of the guys ahead of him (his opponent) has just 18 innings pitched. His ERA and estimators are all below four and while that’s not spectacular, over the last month, they’re all below four and a half. Add in the contact management and he has a .311 xwOBA, 26 points below his actual results. This is the largest gap on the board among any pitcher with more than eight starts. The problem is that he’s a fly ball pitcher (40.5 GB%) who has allowed a 17.1 HR/FB despite just 5.9% Barrels/BBE because…Baltimore. Let’s go back to his last 30 days again though, a span over which he’s faced the Astros, Yankees and Rays (and Kansas City twice). He’s allowed just two HRs and has a 52.8 GB%. And Kevin’s forecast informs us that the wind is blowing in (10 mph) in Baltimore tonight. Bundy is also facing a Texas lineup which projects just one batter above a .220 ISO vs RHP this year and just three above .200. Seven of nine batters in the projected lineup are above a 23 K% vs RHP this season as well. It also helps that the Rangers are the coldest offense in baseball right now with a league low 57 wRC+ over the last week, which includes an 18.1 K-BB% and 10.4 HR/FB. Bundy is within $200 of $7.5K on either site.
Austin Pruitt has struck out 16 of his last 59 batters
Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against Trent Thornton, whose strikeout rate is down to 18.9% over the last month. Over his last 15 innings, opponents have scored 11 runs on four HRs. For the season his ERA and most estimators are around five with a 7.68 DRA that’s two full runs higher. Though he gets a park upgrade tonight, it’s not an easy spot against the Rays, who are implied for 5.36 runs, the third best total on the board. Joey Wendle (84 wRC+, .131 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) becomes the plug and play value bat tonight, as he finds himself leading off at a very low price on either site. Should he reach base, Austin Meadows (144 wRC+, .263 ISO), Tommy Pham (127 wRC+, .218 ISO), and Ji-Man Choi (124 wRC+, .196 ISO) all have been swinging hot bats and will looking to drive him in.
Joey Wendle is a cheap leadoff bat for a top projected offense tonight
Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against Trent Thornton, whose strikeout rate is down to 18.9% over the last month. Over his last 15 innings, opponents have scored 11 runs on four HRs. For the season his ERA and most estimators are around five with a 7.68 DRA that’s two full runs higher. Though he gets a park upgrade tonight, it’s not an easy spot against the Rays, who are implied for 5.36 runs, the third best total on the board. Joey Wendle (84 wRC+, .131 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) becomes the plug and play value bat tonight, as he finds himself leading off at a very low price on either site. Should he reach base, Austin Meadows (144 wRC+, .263 ISO), Tommy Pham (127 wRC+, .218 ISO), and Ji-Man Choi (124 wRC+, .196 ISO) all have been swinging hot bats and will looking to drive him in.
Other tagged players: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham, Trent Thornton Chase Anderson is facing a lineup with power and has a pronounced reverse split (RHBs .389 wOBA)
Chase Anderson was hammered for five runs in four innings, including two HRs at Wrigley last time out and gets a chance at redemption here. Anderson is a pitcher with pronounced reverse splits. Over the last 12 months, RHBs have a .389 wOBA (.368 xwOBA), 45.8 Hard% and 37.9 GB%. He’s facing a lineup with quite a bit of RH in a power friendly park. An implied run line of 4.58 places the Cubs in the middle of the board tonight. The bats to consider are Nick Castellanos (117 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Kris Bryant (114 wRC+, .197 ISO), Javier Baez (103 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Willson Contreras (111 wRC+, .221 ISO). Each of these guys are capable of taking Anderson deep and if there’s concern about facing Hader later in the game, he’s been HR prone as well, allowing nine HRs to 183 RHBs faced.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Chase Anderson