DFS Alerts
Consistent Ace Level Skills
If salary were no issue, I would side with Clayton Kershaw tonight, but Shane Bieber has been the better pitcher for the full season, and has been even more consistent with his control and strikeouts than Kershaw. Bieber’s 30.9% K rate is the highest on this slate and his 5.1% walk rate beats out Kershaw by a hair. His matchup is neutral, but it’s a good ballpark and an NL team without a DH, giving him one more easy out than he’s used to. Bieber is my preference for cash game builds on FD.
RHBs have a wOBA & xwOBA above .400 against Brian Johnson over the last year
Over the last calendar year, which encompasses a bit under 50 innings, RHBs have absolutely torched Brian Johnson to the tune of a .452 wOBA (.403 xwOBA) with a 43.8 Hard%. As one might imagine, Fenway is a difficult park for a marginal left-handed arm to pitch in. Perhaps that’s why Johnson has only faced 31 batters at home this year and the Red Sox have limited him to no more than 19 batters in any of his five starts. Two trips through the order should be enough for this Philadelphia lineup to do some damage with Rhys Hoskins (121 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.T. Realmuto (118 wRC+, .250 ISO) projected at the top, perhaps followed by Jean Segura (133 wRC+, .258 ISO). Only Realmuto is above $4.3K on DraftKings, giving the right-handed Phillies plenty of value in this spot. Even if they only get two shots at Johnson, both Hoskins and Realmuto hit RHP well too. Currently, the Phillies are the lowest of 10 teams above five implied runs tonight (5.41).
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Brian Johnson
Stephen Strasburg leads the board with a .265 xwOBA (.266 on the road since last year)
Stephen Strasburg has allowed 16 ERs over his last 17.1 IP with six HRs, seven walks and 17 strikeouts, none in terrible spots against the Reds, Mets, and Padres. That said, his 22.3 K-BB% is still second best on the board and while his estimators have risen along with his ERA over the last month, the non-FIP ones are still a run below his 5.04 ERA over that span, while he’s held his strikeout rate at 26.6%. He has the lowest xwOBA on the board tonight (.265), which is a single point off his road mark since the beginning of last season (.266), also the top split on the board. Additionally, his xwOBA remains below .300 (.292) through his struggles over the last 30 days. The Pirates are a contact prone (18.9 K%), league average offense (99 wRC+) vs RHP in a slight park upgrade for Strasburg, who is one of six pitchers above $9.5K on either site tonight. He has some competition from Shane Bieber and Clayton Kershaw as far as tonight’s top overall arm goes, but costing $1K or more less than either of those pitchers on either site may make him the top value among high priced arms tonight with a reasonable expectation of a bounce back towards his excellent season numbers.
Nick Senzel (sore left elbow) scratched Monday; Freddy Galvis replaces
Senzel has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Monday’s matchup against the SanDiego Padres due to a sore left elbow. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Freddy Galvis, who will now play second base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Reds batting order but, most notably, bumps Phillip Ervin all the way up to leadoff, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Cincinnati faces off against left-hander Eric Lauer on the road this evening.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans via Twitter Other tagged players: Freddy Galvis
Brewers have hit five HRs against Dakota Hudson this year
Dakota Hudson has allowed HRs in streaks this year, but has also changed as the season’s gone on. He had been a contact prone ground ball machine, but more recently, he’s increased strikeouts with reduced ground balls. However, not much has changed in terms of results or even expected results (.386 xwOBA last 30 days). Since the start of July (eight starts), he has a 19.2 K%, but just a 47.2 GB%. Nine of his 19 HRs have come at home, split evenly between RH and LH batters, but LHBs do have a .389 wOBA against him that’s nearly 100 points higher than RHBs. This is well confirmed by Statcast (.390 xwOBA). Fifteen of his 69 runs have been unearned. The Brewers (split high 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP) are one of the hottest offenses on the board (156 wRC+, 29.2 HR/FB last seven days). Despite the normally power suppressing environment in St Louis, the heat diminishes that somewhat, giving Milwaukee left-handed power a bit of an edge tonight and considering their moderate 4.61 implied run line, Brewers could run a bit under the radar tonight if players still believe Hudson to be a ground ball prominent pitcher. Christian Yelich (218 wRC+, .433 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Trent Grisham (91 wRC+, .211 ISO), Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (114 wRC+, .199 ISO) make up a dangerous stack tonight. Grisham’s $3.5K price tag on DraftKings paving a way towards the higher priced bats. Although the Brewers haven’t faced Hudson since April and not at all in St Louis yet, they have hit five of the 19 HRs he’s allowed this year.
Other tagged players: Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Dakota Hudson Don't Feel Good About It
I never feel good about taking a pitcher in a high total game who has a terrible bullpen behind him. That said, there aren’t a lot of good cheap pitchers on this slate, and Means does have a little upside against this lineup, as the bottom of this lineup today is pretty bad. There are five hitters with ISOs under .130 against left-handed pitching this season. If he can keep it in the ballpark against Soler, Dozier, Cuthbert, and Merrifield, he could pay off this price tag on two-pitcher sites.
Chi Chi Gonzalez has been hit hard outside Coors (.394 road xwOBA in three starts)
Chi Chi Gonzalez is the worst pitcher on the board by K-BB (1.7%) and 95+ mph EV (47.1%). Lots of hard contact and walks with few strikeouts is basically the worst combination a pitcher can have. His 27.3 HR/FB is only second worst on the board, but Edwin Jackson (28.8 HR/FB) is facing a Houston team with a 7.16 implied run line more than a run above any other team on the board. The Diamondbacks have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP, but a board high 29.7 HR/FB over the last week. They are the lowest of six teams above 5.5 implied runs tonight (5.54). If you think Gonzalez’s poor contact numbers are a result of Coors, three of his five starts have come on the road (.394 xwOBA) and he has faced just one above average offense this year. The D’Backs don’t have a lot of firepower, but five of eight projected batters are above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, while six of eight are left-handed. That’s key because batters from that side own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against Gonzalez so far this year. Ketel Marte (131 wRC+, .212 ISO) is the highest priced bat among those projected, but is still likely worth the cost. Meanwhile, David Peralta (121 wRC+, .212 ISO) may be one of the best values on the board for $4.2K on DraftKings and more than $1K less on FanDuel. Along with their strength against RHP, both Marte and Peralta also exceed a 130 wRC+ at home since the start of last year.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Chi Chi Gonzalez Kyle Gibson struck out nine White Sox last time he faced them
Most of tonight’s higher priced pitchers are a difficult roster decision, especially on DraftKings, where many appear over-priced. In fact, there are three pitchers tonight, who cost more than $2K less on FanDuel than their DK price with the largest price gap being Kyle Gibson’s $2.7K difference, costing a very reasonable $7.4K on FD in a great matchup. The White Sox have not only an 87 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but a split high 26 K% and split low 6.6 BB% against them as well. Gibson has certainly not been pitching his best baseball with nine walks to just five strikeouts over his last two starts and even though he’s generally run one of the lower K/SwStr marks in the league, his 1.41 rate behind a 13.2 SwStr% over the last month is a bit hard to swallow, a period over which he has a league average .327 xwOBA despite the low strikeout rate. He struck out nine White Sox with just one walk and run four starts back and is in a great spot to bounce back against them again tonight.
Brendan McKay is the only pitcher on the board above a 20 K-BB%
Brendan McKay has now allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in five of his last six starts and has not exceeded 24 batters or 93 pitches in any outing as the Rays remain cautious with their valuable commodity, but there are still positive signs and potential reasons to employ him in your daily fantasy lineups on Monday night. His 27.4 K% is second best on the board tonight (30.7% is best over the last 30 days), while his 6.2 BB% makes him the only pitcher to exceed a 20 K-BB% tonight. While his 5.47 DRA is above his 5.08 ERA, each of his more traditional estimators (SIERA, xFIP, FIP) are all more than a run below. His 80.8 Z-Contact% and 29 Z-O-Swing% are both best on the board. While his 12.4% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board, a .319 xwOBA is essentially league average and 27 points better than his actual mark. A .352 BABIP would seem unsustainable, 63 points above the .289 mark the Tampa Bay defense has allowed this season. To sum, while he’s allowed some harder contact than we’d like and fails to push very deep into games, he may have the top batter for batter upside on the board and most signs are pointing towards some positive regression. Then we take in the fact that there’s not a reliable, ace level talent on the board, and McKay at $7.5K on either site starts to look very attractive, especially when you consider that Marco Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Kyle Gibson and Kolby Allard are some of your highest priced pitchers and all more than $2K more on DraftKings. The Mariners continue to be a quality offense vs LHP (106 wRC+, 13.6 K-BB% this year), but it’s certainly not a lineup that scares anyone at this point and the park is pitcher friendly. In fact, Seattle currently owns the second lowest implied run line on the board (3.51).
More Savings
On FD, Trevor Bauer is quite affordable tonight, but we’ve got some strong savings in the mid-tier with Brendan McKay and Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been a little shaky recently, but so has Bauer. If I’m taking on some risk, I’ll take it at a low salary in an ideal matchup. Gibson faces a White Sox team with the 4th highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate in the league against righties while ranking 29th in ISO and 28th in wOBA. While Gibson’s 22.4% K rate is not great, it’s the 5th highest mark on this shaky pitching slate.
Poor offense may have an advantage vs hard contact prone pitcher (90.5 mph aEV) at Camden
Jorge Lopez’s return to the rotation lasted 11 batters as the Tigers blasted him for rive runs on three walks with a home run last time out. Lopez was removed from a below average rotation for a reason in May. Some of those reasons include a 6.51 ERA, 7.49 DRA, 5.43 FIP and .366 xwOBA with a 90.5 mph aEV and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. Lopez has allowed 18 HRs in just 85.2 innings. He faces a below average Baltimore offense (89 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB%, 13.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), who may still be better than the last offense he faced in a more dangerous environment. The Orioles actually own the sixth highest implied run line on the board currently (5.32) and Lopez has a fairly large platoon gap despite RHBs owing a .345 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. LHBs are sitting on a .391 wOBA and .371 xwOBA over that span. Jonathan Villar (114 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP this year) and Anthony Santander (118 wRC+, .215 ISO) should be solid values near the top of this lineup.
Other tagged players: Jorge Lopez, Jonathan Villar Don't Overthink It
With Houston at home against Edwin Jackson and a bad Tigers bullpen, I get to use my favorite phrase – Don’t Overthink It. Jackson has struck out just 15% of righties this season while allowing a goofy .530 wOBA and .429 ISO on 43% hard hits. Alex Bregman has elite plate discipline along with home run power and a middle of the order lineup spot on the top offense of the night. He is my top spend in all formats on all sites.
The Price Is Wrong
The pitching pricing is all over the place on this slate, and it’s left us with some clear values. Brendan McKay is still young and unproven, and he did have control issues in his last start, but between his strong minor league numbers and a 27.4% K rate to start his major league career, he is just underpriced tonight. Even if he were just an average pitcher, being at home in Tampa against the high strikeout Mariners would make him viable at this salary. As it is, with some very real talent upside, I consider him a must play in DK/FDRFT cash games and a strong option on all sites in all formats.
Pirate lefties could take advantage of Joe Ross's platoon issues (LHBs .383 wOBA last 12 months)
Joe Ross has allowed just a single run over his last 18 innings without a HR, but nine walks to just 11 strikeouts. He’s been stranding runners and suppressing BABIP to gain these results against three well below average offenses vs RHP this year (Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds). His 7.2 K-BB% in 42.2 IP this season, just does not get it done. And his 3.21 ERA since moving back into the rotation over the last 30 days is met with a 5.07 SIERA, though his .326 xwOBA over that span is league average. He has managed contact well this season. In fact, his 86.8 mph aEV is best on the board tonight. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Ross since returning from injury last September with LHBs sitting on a .383 wOBA/.370 xwOBA over that span. While the Pirates don’t have a lot of left-handed (or overall) power, tonight’s projected lineup does include a few quality lefties in the upper half of the order. Adam Frazier (105 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should be a great value from the leadoff spot for just $3.5K on DraftKings ($2.8K FanDuel), while Bryan Reynolds (158 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Josh Bell (154 wRC+, .312 ISO) have each hammered RHP. Starling Marte (123 wRC+, .200 ISO) is swinging a hot bat (217 wRC+ last seven days) and should be a worthwhile inclusion from the right side of the plate in any stacks. A 4.61 implied run line actually has the Pirates slightly closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but Ross’s recent results would not appear to be sustainable over a longer run and the line appears to be moving in Pittsburgh’s direction in this game.
Other tagged players: Bryan Reynolds, Joe Ross, Josh Bell, Starling Marte Price + Skill-Set + Matchup
Brendan McKay has the perfect combination of price, skill-set, and matchup. While Trevor Bauer is the top arm on the slate, McKay offers a $3,200 discount on DratKings and a $2,700 discount on FanDuel. Tampa Bay will host a whiff-heavy Mariners lineup at the pitcher friendly Trop which gives McKay the top point-per-dollar upside on the slate.
