DFS Alerts
Cards’ bats are an intriguing stack vs. Alex Wood
Alex Wood is still shaking off the rust a bit, as he will make his 5th start of 2019 this afternoon vs. the Cardinals. So far in 19 and 1/3 innings, Wood has a 5.59 ERA / 4.40 xFIP with a 2.79 HR/9, 14.5% K-BB, 46.2% hard contact rate and 10.1% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .365 xwOBA, 7.7% barrel rate and 87.7 MPH aEV. Wood has been a bit worse vs. RHB: since 2017, he’s allowed a .303 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .270 xwOBA vs. lefties. Paul Goldschmidt (.469 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Carpenter (.386), Marcell Ozuna (.365), Yadier Molina (.334), Paul Dejong (.318) and Tommy Edman (.300) are all good options in the STL order. Ozuna has been their best hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .396 xwOBA. Matt Carpenter will be batting 2nd and costs just $3.6k on DK. Goldschmidt (batting 3rd, $4.2k), Dejong (batting 5th, $4k), Molina (batting 6th, $3.1k) and Edman (batting 1st, $4.2k) are also nice values. The Cardinals figure to be a slightly contrarian stack on this slate, even though they do have a solid 5.10 implied line.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman
Brewers bats remain underpriced on DK despite another great matchup
The Brewers face Erick Fedde this afternoon, who has lucked his way to a 4.09 ERA. He has a 5.17 xFIP, 5.58 SIERA, 3.2% K-BB and 7.6% SwStr that scream regression. Fedde does get groundballs at an elite rate (52.2%) but that’s not enough to offset 1.33 K/BB ratio. Fedde has also allowed a .364 xwOBA, 8% barrel rate and 87.9 MPH aEV. Fedde has been a bit worse vs lefties (.379 xwOBA vs. LHB, .346 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2018) but can definitely be targeted with hitters from both sides of the plate. Christian Yelich (.425 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.364), Mike Moustakas (.347), Eric Thames (.324), Trent Grisham (.313), Manny Pina (.312) and Ben Gamel (.299) are all good options in the Brewers’ order. Grisham continues to be underpriced as he is again leading off and is just $3.5k on Draftkings. Thames has been moved up to 2nd in the order for this game and is just $4.3k. Mike Moustakas is batting 5th at $4.1k, followed by Manny Pina at just $2.9k. Hiura and Yelich will cost $5k+ but are still very much in play, especially Yelich. Currently, the Brewers have a 5.50 implied line vs. Fedde and the Nats.
Other tagged players: Keston Hiura, Eric Thames, Trent Grisham, Manny Pina Regression Has Come
Many have stacked against Jason Vargas this year, and many have failed. But he has finally shown some serious regression with his control and limiting hard contact the past two outings. Getting the big ballpark upgrade, the Padres are currently sporting a 5.3 implied run total and they have no hitter in their lineup over $4200 on DraftKings. For only $17.8k, you can 5-man stack filling scarce positions with Hedges at C and Urias at SS. Rounding it out with the righties in Margot, Machado, Renfroe makes the most sense, but don’t forget about Ty France at 3B, who does have solid power, at only $2900.
Other tagged players: Ty France, Luis Urias
Red Sox currently have 7.97 implied runs vs. Blach in Fenway
Even in hitter friendly Fenway, this is a crazy implied total for a non-Coors game. The Red Sox will face Ty Blach, who had a 5.93 ERA / 5.44 xFIP with a 15.7% K rate over 91 innings in AAA this year. He has a 13.94 ERA and 7.37 xFIP in the Majors this year but in only 10 1/3 innings. After Blach is chased from the game, the Red Sox will get plate appearances vs. a bad Orioles ‘pen that has allowed a 4th worst .349 xwOBA over the past month. The Red Sox have a 3rd best 122 wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a lineup full of intriguing options in this matchup: JD Martinez (.497 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Sam Travis (.366), Xander Bogaerts (.357), Mookie Betts (.353), Andrew Benintendi (.336), Rafael Devers (.326) and Christian Vazquez (.313) are all good options in the Boston lineup. Travis is just $3.8k on Draftkings and seems like a nice value given his success against LHP this year. Martinez and Travis have been the Red Sox hottest hitters; they each have an xwOBA over .430 over the past 2 weeks. Betts, Devers, Bogaerts and Martinez will all cost upward of $5.3k on Draftkings while Benintendi costs $4.9k. Given the total, the prices seem more than fair for these guys and they will likely see decently high ownership across all contests.
Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi Extremely Cheap Leverage Stack
The low end of SP today is ugly enough that you may want to pay up in both slots, which means you’ll need to find cheap stacks. At as little as $17k on DraftKings, the Mariners fit this bill with the lineup they’re throwing out today with Lopes leading off and Nola batting 3rd. Thomas Pannone, who will providing the bulk of the innings for the Jays, has only an 18% K rate to righties on 50% fly balls and a .204 ISO over a two-year sample size. Being that he might be a popular option at SP2 today on DK, this 5-man Mariners stack provides additional leverage for large field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Austin Nola, Timothy Lopes, Keon Broxton Sparkman has 8.06 ERA / 2.45 HR/9 over past 30 days, faces red-hot Mets this afternoon
Glenn Sparkman has not been an effective pitcher at any point this year and currently has a 5.45 ERA, 5.55 xFIP, 5.49 SIERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.9% K-BB, 40.4% hard contact rate and 7.3% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has a .357 xwOBA allowed, 7.6% barrel rate and 90.7 MPH aEV. The Mets come into this game with a 128 wRC+ over the past 14 days and have some good options in their lineup: Michael Conforto (.404 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), JD Davis (.385), Pete Alonso (.378), Amed Rosario (.313), Wilson Ramos (.306), Joe Panik (.303) and Todd Frazier (.299) are all options in the Mets’ projected order. Given Sparkman’s lack of swing and miss stuff (13.4% K rate, 7.3% SwStr) Alonso and Conforto are especially intriguing as high K% guys that do lots of damage when they make contact. JD Davis has been on fire with a .476 xwOBA over the past 14 days; he costs $4.7k on DK this afternoon. Wilson Ramos has also seen the ball well with a .399 xwOBA over that same time frame and will cost just $4k on DK. Amed Rosario is projected to leadoff and is $4.2k, while Joe Panik is just $3.3k and projected to bat 2nd. The Mets currently have a 5.81 implied total, 2nd highest on the slate.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Joe Panik, J.D. Davis, Amed Rosario, Wilson Ramos Simply Too Cheap
Eventually, the sites are going to price up Trent Grisham, and this might be our last chance to get him at a discount after his huge game on Friday night. He now has two home runs in his last two starts, and he is going to be a fixture in this lineup for a long time. The $3K tag on FD and $3.5K tag on DK are just too cheap, making Grisham a fixture in any cash game build today.
Trevor Richards is a nice value arm vs. Tigers
Trevor Richards will be called up to start this game for the Rays and finds himself in a nice spot versus one of the worst offenses in the league. Richards has so far had a rough year, posting a 4.50 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA with a 1.38 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB and 11.7% SwStr. Perhaps a change of scenery will help Richards, especially going to a Rays’ team that has been known to be able to get the most out of its players. So far this year, the Tigers have a league worst 73 wRC+ and 26.5% K rate vs. RHP. They also have just a 76 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and their lineup has weakened even further after trading Nick Castellanos at the trade deadline. The Tigers’ projected lineup has just one hitter with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year. Richards is just $7k on Draftkings and even cheaper at $6.4k on Fanduel; he’ll likely see high ownership but looks to be the best pitcher by far in his price range on this slate.
Ace Up Top Worth Paying For
I do think your SP1 decision comes down to Jack Flaherty vs Matt Boyd. I personally lean Boyd, but wouldn’t call you crazy at all if you sided with Flaherty against a right-handed heavy Reds lineup. I like Boyd as he faces a Rays team that ranks 3rd in K% against lefties and ranks 21st in team ISO. Boyd also has a 31.2 K% I want to target. He has had home run issues so that is a concern, but I do think you need to prioritize one of Boyd or Flaherty today as your SP1 given the lack of quality pitching options.
Lefty Masher Facing Scuffling Southpaw
Alex Wood has allowed at least one homer in every start so far and he hasn’t looked right yet. I am more than fine targeting these Cardinals against Wood in an elite hitter’s ballpark. We saw the Cardinals explode for 13 runs on Friday against Luis Castillo before morphing back into a pumpkin on Saturday where they scored just one run. This feels like a Paul Goldschmidt spot, where his .284 ISO against lefties can make Wood pay. I’d probably just run the 1-5 hitters in a stack and get exposure to the right-handed batters so they will have the platoon-advantage over Wood, with Goldy being my preferred target here in cash games.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter Facing Pitcher With Wide Splits
Erick Fedde is allowing a .378 wOBA to lefties this season, making Christian Yelich, Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames a fine lefty-stack. At the very least, I like Grisham as a cash game play at his price point and likely leadoff spot. This is a great ballpark for power and with Fedde not showing an ability to get lefties out on a consistent basis, the left-handed Brewers are very appealing in this spot.
Jack Flaherty has a 0.57 ERA and 29.4% K-BB over past 30 days
After an inconsistent start to the season, Jack Flaherty has raised his K% and lowered his xFIP and WHIP in each month since June. Flaherty has looked fully locked in over the past 30 days with a slate best 3.03 SIERA, 3.18 xFIP, 0.57 ERA, 35.3% K rate, 5.9% BB rate and 13.8% SwStr. Flaherty gets a matchup this afternoon with the Reds, who have been below average with an 89 wRC+ and 23.6% K rate vs. RHP on the year, though they do have a 118 wRC+ over the past 14 days. The Reds have just two batters (Aquino, VanMeter) in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP on the year. Flaherty will have the platoon advantage against 6 of 8 Reds’ hitters, which is very beneficial for him given that he has a pretty wide platoon split; since 2018, Flaherty has allowed a .309 xwOBA and 14% K-BB vs. lefties compared to a .264 xwOBA and 26.6% K-BB vs. righties. Flaherty is an affordable $9.7k on Draftkings and $10.7k on Fanduel, he projects as one of the better PTS/$ options on the slate at SP and makes sense in both cash and GPP contests. The Reds currently have a 3.97 implied total vs. Flaherty and the Cardinals.
Continue to Ride the Lefty Masher
An underwhelming lefty is starting for the Orioles today in Ty Blach, and give me Martinez all day, every day against a bad lefty plus the Baltimore bullpen. Martinez is hitting .394 against LHP this year with ridiculous advanced metrics, including a .527 wOBA, .459 ISO, and 1.334 OPS. Those numbers are off the charts. He needs to be the centerpiece of any cash game build this afternoon.
Trending Like an Ace
There are a lot of interesting options today, from the upside of Boyd to the safety of Wheeler to the red-hot Flaherty. I’ll take the St. Louis ace as my favorite arm today. He has been absolutely lights out over the last month and a half, with a 1.44 ERA since the beginning of July with 63 strikeouts over his last 50 innings. His 29% strikeout rate gives him as much upside as any other arm on the slate. The Reds have some dangerous bats, but this is still a lineup that can be beaten by a good arm. Flaherty is a fine option in all formats today.
Ketel Marte scratched Saturday; Wilmer Flores replaces
Marte has been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilmer Flores, who will now play second base and slot directly into Marte’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Logan Webb at home this evening.
As reported by: the Arizona Diamondbacks via Twitter Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores