DFS Alerts
Patrick Corbin has allowed more than two runs in just two of his last 11 starts (31.3 K%)
Justin Verlander is the no-brainer tonight, as he faces the Tigers (26.6 K% vs RHP) off six straight starts with double digit strikeouts. Walker Buehler (34.9 K% last 30 days) looks pretty strong at home against the Blue Jays too (24.6 K% vs RHP), but don’t forget about Patrick Corbin in a fine spot as well. Over his last 11 starts, Corbin has allowed more than two runs just twice, failing to complete six innings just twice as well with a 31.3 K% over this span. Additionally, he’s in a great spot in Pittsburgh. While the Pirates are a formidable, contact prone offense against RHP, they are simply atrocious against LHP. Their wRC+ drops to 73, while their strikeout rate rises to 22.8%. Pittsburgh is also a great park for lefty pitchers, suppressing right-handed power as well as any park in the league. The Pirates have just an 11.2 HR/FB at home, 12.4 HR/FB vs LHP and 5.6 HR/FB over the last seven days. Though Corbin is not the top pitcher on the mound tonight and it would be difficult to go wrong with any of the top three, he is the only one of the three below $11K on either site and offers more maneuverability with the remainder of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Walker Buehler, Justin Verlander
Ideal In All Formats
The Red Sox look like a top stack on this slate against a fly ball pitcher in Drew Smyly who has shown control issues along with allowing hard hits to both sides of the plate. It’s always a chore choosing between the big Red Sox righties, but tonight I’ll side with J.D. Martinez and his video game numbers against left-handed pitching – .455 ISO, .546 wOBA. Smyly allows 44% fly balls and 47% hard hits to righties, and Martinez has the stronger numbers against fly ball pitchers when comparing to teammate Mookie Betts.
Elite Skills Across The Board
There is no flaw anywhere in Alex Bregman’s skill set against left-handed pitching. He has as many walks as strikeouts, and hits the ball hard and in the air, resulting in a .339 ISO and .445 wOBA against LHP this season. He faces an average at best pitcher in Daniel Norris backed by a bad Tigers bullpen. When the bullpen comes in, Bregman’s skills hold up just as well against righties with a 12.3% K rate, 18.3% BB and a .402 wOBA.
Don't Overthink It
Justin Verlander has been an elite strikeout pitcher all year, and it’s gotten even more extreme recently, with a 44.6% K rate since the All-Star Break and six straight starts with double digit strikeouts. Add in a matchup with a Tigers team that is near the bottom of the league in every offensive category against right-handed pitching, and this qualifies as a Don’t Overthink It spot.
Aaron Sanchez has the top matchup on the board (Tigers 74 wRC+, 26.6 K%, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP)
Aaron Sanchez has been fairly dominant in his first two starts since putting the magic uniform on (11 IP – 3 H – 1 R – 5 BB – 12 K – 43 BF) until the clock struck midnight in Oakland last time out (5.1 IP – 4 HR – 3 K – 25 BF). Considering the strong outings came at home against the Mariners and in Baltimore, one might wonder if much has really changed yet. Sure, the Astros have him throwing more curveballs, but his velocity has also dropped about a mile per hour. Some of this would even be a concern if Sanchez weren’t facing the worst offense on the board in one of the most negative run environments. The Tigers own a 74 wRC+ with a 26.6 K% and 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year. With an ERA and estimators right around four over the last 30 days, which includes his last two starts with Toronto, and a supporting .281 xwOBA over that same span, Sanchez should be a bargain for just $6.8K on DraftKings.
Tyler Beede brings a 91.1 mph aEV and 45% 95+ mph EV to Wrigley
Conditions suggest that tonight could be a high scoring affair at Wrigley, but do you know what else suggests some runs will be put on the board? That would be Tyler Beede’s Statcast numbers. Despite calling one of the most negative run environments in baseball home, Beede has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts with eight HRs and a .371 xwOBA over that span. His 91.1 mph aEV and 45% 95+ mph EV on the season are both worst on the board by a decent margin. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The 6.26 implied run line for the Cubs is exceeded by only one other team tonight. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for Chicago exceed both a 105 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, but the top value in the lineup could be Jason Heyward (119 wRC+, .209 ISO) if in the leadoff spot. He’s the lowest priced batter among those projected seven at just $4K on DraftKings. Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .236 ISO) is the top overall bat in this spot.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Tyler Beede The Brewers may be worth another shot against Wacha's board worst .364 xwOBA
To say that Milwaukee backers were disappointed last night would be an understatement. However, that fact may be part of the reason players should consider going back to that well tonight. While the park in St Louis generally suppresses home runs and run scoring in general, conditions suggest that may not be the case tonight (Weather Edge and umpire ratings are available to premium subscribers) and Michael Wacha has some of the worst numbers on the board, including the highest xwOBA for the season (.364) and at home since last season (.360). He combines a 7.3 K-BB% with a 22.8 HR/FB and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last six starts. Slightly different from the case last night, Wacha has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate over the last year (RHBs .397 wOBA, .375 xwOBA – LHBs 331 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), which puts not only the left-handed power of Christian Yelich (218 wRC+, .435 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Moustakas (110 wRC+, .257 ISO), and Yasmani Grandal (115 wRC+, .201 ISO) in play, but also Keston Hiura (168 wRC+, .318 ISO). Despite nearly being no-hit last night, each of the batters mentioned still carries a wRC+ above 140 over the last seven days. In addition, while Trent Grisham has struggled (73 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP), an appearance at the top of the lineup for less than $3K on DraftKings might help players afford Hiura and Yelich above $5K. After last night’s performance, it’s possible ownership on Milwaukee bats will be down tonight, while they are still projected right around a healthy five runs once again.
Other tagged players: Trent Grisham, Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Michael Wacha Home Run Prone Pitcher Could Be In Trouble Against Powerful Lineup
Elisier Hernandez has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park this season with a 2.53 HR/9 that is the fifth-worst this year among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. That could spell trouble against a Braves lineup that ranks 6th in slugging percentage and 8th in ISO this season. The Braves have a 5.8 implied run total that is one of the highest on the slate, and I’ll be targeting the top of the Braves lineup – Ronal Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson
Cheap Starter Gets Rare Chance to Pitch as Favorite
Dylan Bundy is having a tough season along with the rest of the Orioles pitching staff with only a 5-13 record, but he still has a 9.15 K/9, 23.5 K%, and a 4.49 SIERA that is just a bit over his career average 4.26 SIERA. Tonight Bundy gets the benefit of facing a Royals offense that ranks 26th in ISO and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and Bundy and the Orioles are rare favorites in this game.
Leadoff Hitter At This Price Point
Lopes should hit leadoff for Seattle tonight, which makes him one of the best value plays on this slate. Castillo is going to open, but he should still get at least two at bats against Beeks. He has struggled with right-handed pitching, but he does have a very low strikeout rate against righties. He has a .286 ISO with a .419 wOBA against lefties since being called up. Hitting leadoff at this price on the road, he’s certainly someone to look at tonight.
The Chalk Matchup
Aaron Sanchez draws a great matchup against the Tigers tonight. They have a .142 ISO with a .307 wOBA and a 44.6% ground ball rate against right-handed pitching this season. They also strikeout at a high clip which helps a low strikeout pitcher like Sanchez. They don’t walk a lot, which is a big boost to Sanchez. He’s too cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, which should lead to pretty high ownership. We do have some good pivots in tournaments, but as of right now, he’s my SP2 for cash games.
Hitting Leadoff In A Great Matchup
I really like the Dodgers tonight, which shouldn’t really shock anyone at this point. Pederson stands out as a great value option across the industry. He has a .272 ISO with a .366 wOBA and a 44.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Reid-Foley has a .372 wOBA with a .193 ISO and a 18.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. On top of that, this bullpen has the seventh highest ISO on the season.
The Lefties Certainly Help
It’s been an up and down season for Hamels, but this is a great spot to get back on track. The Giants should have three lefties, which should benefit Hamels, and there isn’t a lot of right-handed power in this lineup. It’s good hitting weather, which concerns me a little for Hamels. Hamels has a 22.9% strikeout rate with a 50.8% ground ball rate and an ISO under .150 to both sides of the plate this season. It’s not perfect but I really like the price point for tournaments.
Cheap And Not Quite Nonsense
There are a lot of bats worth spending on tonight, so it makes sense to look for a cheap SP2 to get to upside offense. Tampa’s Jalen Beeks is projected to be the primary pitcher tonight following Diego Castillo, and despite what happened to chalky Brendan McKay last night, the Mariners are a good team to pick on with left-handed pitching. They have the 2nd highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties, and while Beeks is nothing special, he’s close to a league average pitcher. Even at only 4-5 innings, he’s cheap enough to turn a profit here.
Discounted Ace
The top of the pitching pool is strong with Clayton Kershaw and Shane Bieber, but we’ve also got a lot of hitting to spend on tonight. You can get similar upside from the 28.7% K rate of Sonny Gray at a significant savings from Kershaw and Bieber on DK/FDRFT. Gray has remained above 30% strikeouts since the All-Star Break, and he gets a high strikeout opponent tonight with the Padres coming to town. There is a little more power risk here than what Kershaw and Bieber have, but it’s priced in without losing the ceiling.