DFS Alerts
Bo Bichette has an extra-base hit in nine straight games
J.A. Happ has struck out just seven of his last 68 batters, allowing nearly as many HRs (five) over that span. Decreasing strikeouts with increasing home runs has been an unfortunate theme of his season in 2019. He has been successful against his former team this season (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 9 K – 48 BF), but this young lineup is really coming into it’s own. Yet, the Blue Jays find themselves merely in the middle of the pack with 4.66 implied runs tonight. To say Bo Bichette’s first 11 major league games (53 PAs) have been a smashing success, would be a massive understatement. He’s maintained a 234 wRC+ and has an extra-base hits in his last nine games, something not done by a rookie since Ted Williams. Vlad Jr. has just a 76 wRC+ and .138 ISO vs LHP this year, but with a .338 xwOBA that’s 49 points above his actual mark. He has a 203 wRC+ with four HRs over his last 11 games as well, though just two for his last 14. The projected middle of the lineup also includes Lourdes Gurriel, who has been a terror against southpaws over the last calendar year (162 wRC+, .348 ISO) along with Randal Grichuk (118 wRC+, .219 ISO). Happ has allowed RHBs a .335 wOBA (.339 xwOBA) over the last calendar year with just a 33.8% ground ball rate.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel, J.A. Happ
A Strong Mid-Tier
We’ve got aces up top tonight, but the pitching doesn’t lose it’s luster in the mid-tier, with a trio of Madison Bumgarner, Jon Gray and Dallas Keuchel all in favorable matchups. The safest from a matchup angle is Keuchel in Miami, but he has the lowest strikeout ceiling. Madison Bumgarner has been great at home, and is playable in all formats, particularty on DK/FDRFT. My first preference for a mix of salary and upside is Jon Gray going into San Diego to face a high strikeout Padres team whose top bats are mostly right-handed. Gray has a 26% K rate to go along with 52% GB against righties, while the Padres active roster has the 3rd highest K rate in the league against RHP.
Elite Power At A Slight Discount
Boston bats will be the top priority on this slate, with the Yankees coming in next in line. But Aaron Judge is at a significant savings to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez on DK/FDRFT and comes with every bit as much upside. Toronto’s Thomas Pannone allows a lot of fly balls to right-handed bats and the 66% hard hit rate from Judge against lefties is too extreme to overlook at this salary.
Where To Use That Salary
It’s no mystery at all to find the top offense on this slate with the Red Sox at home against Dillon Peters. Where it gets tough is in trying to decipher which of the big right-handed bats to spend on, since we can’t fit them all. While I have a slight lean to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts is not at all far behind them in skills, and the shortstop position is weaker in the mid-tier than the outfield tonight. For that reason, I lean to starting with Bogaerts as the Boston spend on FD and DK.
Too Many Aces
The pitching is loaded tonight, and it makes the decisions tough,and they will vary from site to site and in different formats. My top three tonight are Aaron Nola, Chris Sale and Matt Boyd, but they are all so close that none really deserve to be called a Core Play ahead of the other. The way I land here is to side with Nola in DK/FDRFT cash games with the matchup in San Francisco, while leaning to the higher strikeout upsides of Sale and Boyd in tournaments.
Uncomfortable GPP Stack
You might look at me oddly with me suggesting a Tigers stack tonight, but at least hear out the argument. Detroit has an implied team total of five full runs, which is VERY high for them. They get a matchup with a bad pitcher as well, and the price tags on the Detroit bats are affordable. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, you can stack up the Tigers with two stud arms. If you are playing on a single pitcher site, you can get a stud arm and some other elite bats around them. I almost never stack this team up, but I’ll YOLO some GPP shares on this short slate, with Castro and Demeritte as my favorite values.
Other tagged players: Travis Demeritte, Niko Goodrum
Elite Power Potential
Yes, the Red Sox are obvious plays tonight. Yes, you can play the likes of J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts in any format. However, I’ll opt for Judge as my top point per dollar play overall, especially in GPP formats. The price tag is simply too cheap on DK/FDRAFT, and the upside obviously exists on every site with his power potential. The Yankees face a bad lefty in Pannone tonight, and Judge is hititng. .339 with a .480 OBP, .444 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 1.073 OPS against lefties this year. He’s an elite play in any format. If you want to fire up a GPP stack, you can add LeMahieu and his great numbers against LHP or a value like Higashioka — but Judge is the absolute GPP priority for me here.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Kyle Higashioka Elite GPP Aces
Among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year, tonight’s short slate offers three of the top seven pitchers in the league in strikeout rate — Mike Clevinger (36.9%), Chris Sale (34.6%), and Matt Boyd (32.6%). In tournaments, I will go for the upside of Boyd and Sale tonight. Their matchups offer more potential strikeouts than a date with the Angels does for Mike Clevinger. Based on salary usage and roster construction on the two sites tonight, I like Boyd as my top arm on FD and Sale as my top arm on DK.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale Little Downside With A High Floor
In a small sample size, Keuchel has done a great job at limiting the damage against right-handed hitters. He has a 57% ground ball rate with a 137.8 average hit distance against right-handed hitters this season. The projected starting lineup for the Marlins has a 23% strikeout rate with a 50.4% ground ball rate against left-handed pitching. If BABIP goes well for Keuchel, he could pitch deep into this game.
Looking A Lot Better At The Plate
Sam Travis struggled when first getting called up, but he’s starting to look a lot better at the plate. He has a .196 ISO with a 42.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Peters has a .384 wOBA with a .238 ISO and a 34.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. In his short career, he has a .345 wOBA with a 1.48 WHIP and a 1.47 HR/9 against righties.
Value Play With Strikeout Upside
If you’re looking to save some money for some upside, Jon Gray has a ton of upside in this matchup tonight. He receives a massive ballpark upgrade, and he faces an offense with a really high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The projected starting lineup has a 25.9% strikeout rate with a .185 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Gray has a 24% strikeout rate with a 12% swinging strike rate on the season. He has a 22.4% strikeout rate in Coors, but a 25.3% strikeout rate on the road.
Cam Gallagher (side) scratched Wednesday; Meibrys Viloria replaces
Gallagher has been scratched from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox due to left side tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Meibrys Viloria, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Gallagher’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Royals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Joel Goldberg via Twitter Other tagged players: Meibrys Viloria
Manny Machado has a 193 wRC+ and .346 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year
The Padres are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.16), well more than one half run behind the Yankees (5.93) and more than two behind the Red Sox (7.39), both hitting in much friendlier environments than Seattle. However, there are weather concerns in both east coast games, while the Yankees are facing a pretty decent pitcher (John Means). There’s no other way to put it than that Yusei Kikuchi has been awful, though his xwOBAs (season, home, month) are all much better than his actual marks, they’re all still worse than league average. Estimators are in line with a 5.49 ERA though with a 7.05 DRA is still much worse. The park is helpful, but the Padres have some bats from the right-hand side who can rake. Fernando Tatis Jr. (191 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP) and Manny Macado (193 wRC+, .346 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) have destroyed southpaws, while Hunter Renfroe (127 wRC+, .351 ISO) has shown tremendous power. Wil Myers (121 wRC+, .193 ISO) might be the value play in this lineup, batting second and costing only $3.7K on DraftKings ($2.7K FD). RHBs have a .359 wOBA (.340 xwOBA) against Kikuchi this year.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis, Yusei Kikuchi Tonight's Seattle lineup strikes out a ton vs LHP
There are several marginal, but no single great pitching option on a five game, Wednesday night slate, featuring weather concerns in Baltimore and Boston where Eduardo Rodriguez and James Paxton are pitching. The games in Seattle and Arizona features no weather concerns, but some interesting pitchers. Zac Gallen makes his first start for the Diamondbacks, having struck out 17 of his last 52 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 14 innings. His 28.5 K% and .291 xwOBA have come against a decent quality of opposition. His estimators run around a full run or higher above his 2.27 ERA due to an 11.9 BB%, .259 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. While Arizona isn’t very power friendly, it’s still likely a park downgrade for Gallen coming from Miami and we can except to see him regress a bit. He faces a nearly league average Philadelphia offense with a 22.7 K% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP at a cost within $600 of $9K on either site. An argument can be made that Joey Lucchesi is the more interesting arm despite merely a league average strikeout rate (22.8%) and the completion of six innings in just two of his last seven starts. While nothing further stands out in his 4.23 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, 3.83 DRA or .308 xwOBA, Lucchesi is facing an offense with a team 52 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. A look at tonight’s lineup in PlateIQ reveals a combined average 29.4 K% vs LHP this year, including seven of the nine batters with more than 60 PAs against southpaws this year. Each of the first five batters have struck out at least 24% of the time against LHP this year. Lucchesi may not give you the workload you want, but costs just $7.3K on FanDuel and is $600 less than Gallen on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Zac Gallen, James Paxton, Eduardo Rodriguez Back To The Righty Power
San Diego scored nine runs with three homers last night and face an even worse left-handed starter tonight with the same bad bullpen behind him. Yusei Kikuchi h has seen his ERA come all the way up to 5.49 with 32 runs allowed in his last eight starts and eight home runs allowed in his last three starts. His low 15.8% K to righties do not bode well against the likes of Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe, who all come in with ISO’s above .240 against left-handed pitching. The Seattle pitching staff is bad enough to stack against, and these Padres righties have enough power to play individually or together in stacks.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis