DFS Alerts
Loads Of Lefty Power
Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams has managed just a 14.3% K rate to left-handed batters this season, while allowing a .205 ISO and .388 wOBA. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in four of his last seven starter and comes in with a 4.75 ERA and 4.76 SIERA. The Brewers have too much lefty power to think he can squeak by here with those low strikeouts against the likes of Mike Moustakas (.261 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (.220 ISO). We’ve also got rookie Trent Grisham at a discounted salary to help make the stack more affordable.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Trent Grisham
Start of NYY-BAL will be delayed due to weather Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather currently in the area. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Asher Wojciechowski not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s still some risk for a late postponement even though he expects the storms to move out eventually.
As reported by: the Baltimore Orioles via Twitter
Start of TEX-CLE will be delayed due to weather Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather currently in the area. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Indians have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Zach Plesac not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s still a legitimate risk for a late postponement if the teams don’t want to wait out a likely lengthy initial delay.
As reported by: James Rapien via Twitter Adam Eaton scratched Tuesday; Gerardo Parra replaces
Eaton has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gerardo Parra, who will now play right field and slot directly into Eaton’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Conner Menez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman via Twitter Other tagged players: Gerardo Parra Dinelson Lamet has a 29.1 K% and the fourth lowest rate of hard contact on the board
The results for Dinelson Lamet through five starts haven’t been spectacular with a 5.09 ERA. While estimators are all around a full run lower, it’s hard to argue his .322 BABIP with a 24.2 LD% and he’s allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE, but things do appear much brighter if you look a bit deeper. The real standout is a 29.1% strikeout rate, but even the contact isn’t as bad as it seems. He’s generated a 20% infield fly rate on just a 35.5 GB% and despite the high rate of line drives and barrels, only 33.3% of his contact has been above a 95+ mph EV. For context, only Anibal Sanchez, Jose Berrios and Clayton Kershaw have allowed a lower rate of hard contact on tonight’s board. Lamet pitches in a negative run environment in Seattle tonight and although the Mariners have a 102 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB vs RHP this year, they also strike out a quarter of the time against southpaws (25.1%) and lineup looks a lot different than it did to start the year. Over the last week, the Seattle offense has a 72 wRC+ with a 28.4 K%. While Lamet hasn’t pitched the six innings necessary to receive a quality start this year, he costs just $6.5K on FanDuel tonight and is reasonably priced at $2K more on DraftKings after increasing his pitch count to a season high 88 last time out.
Conner Menez struck out 33.9% of AAA batters and six of 19 in debut
Conner Menez struck out six of 19 Mets faced in his major league debut against the Mets a few weeks ago, but did allow two HRs in front of the home crowd. The 24 year-old is not a highly regarded prospect and faces an equally powerful offense vs LHP tonight (Nationals 108 wRC+, 20.9 K% vs LHP), but the Nats don’t hit the ball particularly hard against southpaws. In fact, their 16.0 Hard-Soft% against them is tied for the second lowest split on the board tonight (Orioles 14.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and the one area where Menez has shown some minor league upside is the one area daily fantasy players care about the most…strikeouts! In 11 starts at AA, Menez struck out 29.9% of the batters he faced. When promoted to AAA, he walked 11.3%, but increased his strikeouts to 33.9% through 44.1 innings. In fact, including his major league debut, Menez has struck out at least six each of the last five times he’s taken the mound since the start of July. Despite the difficult matchup, this is a great park for a pitcher with some upside for $7.2K or less.
LHBs exceed a .380 wOBA/xwOBA vs Jake Arrieta over the last calendar year
Jake Arrieta has just a 5.3 SwStr% over the last month. IN fact, he’s been above 7% in just one of his last eight starts. He has kept the ball on the ground in shorter stints recently (more than five innings in just one of his last five starts), but LHBs now have a wOBA and xwOBA a few points above .380 against him over the last calendar year. The Diamondbacks aren’t an offense flush with left-handed power or even above average bats, but this may be a great spot for their two big bats in particular. Ketel Marte owns a 127 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months. However, David Peralta has even better numbers (134 wRC+, .233 ISO) and costs much less. At only $4.1K on DraftKings, Peralta may be one of the top values on the board tonight. Both batters also share a 139 wRC+ at home over the same time span as well.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Jake Arrieta Pitcher Returns From AAA to Face Powerful Lineup
Mike Foltynewicz returns from AAA tonight in what has been a rough season, with a 6.37 ERA (5.00 SIERA) and a 7.58 K/9, numbers that are substantially worse than last season’s 2.85 ERA (3.77 SIERA) and 9.93 K/9. Tonight Foltynewicz has to face a Minnesota offense that leads the league in slugging percentage, wOBA, and OPS. The Twins are strong -155 favorites in this game with a 5.8 implied run total, and with Foltynewicz having allowed 16 HRs in only 59.1 innings this season, I’ll be targeting the Minnesota power hitters at the top of the lineup, namely Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
Zack Greinke has a 27.8 K% and .262 xwOBA over the last 30 days
Aaron Sanchez did not allow a hit in his first start for the Astros. That probably makes Zack Greinke a lock to throw a perfect game tonight. At least it may make him one of the top high priced values on the board tonight and potentially tonight’s top overall arm. Greinke already liked to throw his off-speed and breaking stuff around half the time anyway, so it’s curious what changes the Astros will make. If he comes out throwing 95 mph again, there will probably be an investigation. However, he’d been pitching pretty well recently already (27.8 K%, .262 xwOBA last 30 days). For the season, Greinke brings over a 20.3 K-BB%, 29.3 Z-O-Swing% (best on the board) and .279 xwOBA with an 86.7 mph aEV. The really interesting thing here is that Greinke may have been running what looked like an unsustainably low .263 BAIBP 30 points below what the Arizona defense allows. However, the move to Houston pairs him with a defense allowing a .261 BABIP. His 2.94 DRA already matches his 2.90 ERA. With additional estimators above three, he may have a better chance at continuing to beat them in Houston. While Greinke also enjoys a park boost in Houston, he also has a great matchup tonight. In addition to the Rockies’ 84 wRC+ vs RHP this year, they also have just a 71 wRC+ with a 20.7 K-BB%. Three pitchers cost more than Greinke tonight, who’s just below $10K on either site.
Ariel Jurado has a .369 road xwOBA since last year
While Cleveland is a bit of a park bump for Rangers pitchers, it’s still one of the more positive run environments in the league and Ariel Jurado has just a 5.5 SwStr% with a board high .385 xwOBA over the last month. As far as getting out of Texas goes, since the start of last season, he owns a .368 road xwOBA. His 9.2% Barrels/BBE in 2019 is third highest of any pitcher on the slate with a start this season. Over the last 12 months batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and within a point of a .355 xwOBA against him. The projected lineup for the new look Indians does not contain a single batter below a .170 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Surprisingly, Jason Kipnis has the highest wRC+ (128) with a .222 ISO. This is now a group of quality bats with above average power, including a great rebound from Carlos Santana (126 wRC+, .239 ISO). It’s difficult to find a poor value among the bunch with an offense that has currently moved into second place on the board tonight at 6.18 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Ariel Jurado Both pitchers at Fenway have allowed 13 HRs to RHBs this year
While it would seem beneficial to each team to have a RHP on the mound with the wind blowing out to left at Fenway tonight, Jakob Junis has allowed 13 of his 24 HRs to RHBs this year, while Cashner has allowed 13 of his 15 to same-handed batters. The Red Sox own the highest implied run line on the board (6.24), so bombs away. This much is obvious. However, Cashner has allowed 20 runs (18 earned) in 23.1 innings since being traded, facing each division opponent once. The Royals are not a productive offense vs RHP (88 wRC+, 11 HR/FB), but the top half of the lineup does feature three RHBs who have been proficient against RHP over the last calendar year in Whit Merrifield (119 wRC+, .153 ISO), Hunter Dozier (130 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jorge Soler (127 wRC+, .290 ISO). The Royals are merely a middle of the board offense tonight (4.76) and are unlikely to be as highly regarded in GPPs as their opponents.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Andrew Cashner, Jakob Junis, Whit Merrifield Power To Spare
The Reds opened the game strong last night before tapering off. There’s enough power in this lineup against lefties to think they can get off to another strong start tonight against Jose Suarez, who has shaky control and has managed just 20.3% K to righties so far while showing no ability to limit hard contact. While Philip Ervin and Aristides Aquino are interesting tournament options, Eugenio Suarez and Nick Senzel stand out as strong plays in all formats. Suarez has a .235 ISO and 51% hard hits against lefties with Senzel at a .260 ISO and 54% hard hits. Suarez is the better hitter against righties once the Angels dip into their bullpen, so if only using one, I’d lean Suarez, but I like both in all formats.
Late Night Hammer
The Padres go into Seattle to face a left-handed pitcher in Wade LeBlanc who has struck out just 14.2% of righties. Manny Machado has a massive .430 ISO and .538 wOBA with 54% hard hits against lefties this season and remains as the top bat for San Diego once Seattle dips into their bottom of the barrel bullpen. On DK, Machado is too cheap in addition to being eligible at multiple positions.
Yankees have hit more than 30 HRs in Baltimore this year
If you perhaps thought that the mighty exploits of the no name Yankees from earlier this season was due to regress, it might seem a reasonable assumption. But so far, it would also be wrong. With the majority of their normal starting lineup back on the IL, the Yankees are featuring lineups with Mike Ford, Brett Gardner, Austin Romine and Mike Tauchman somewhere in the middle…and all of them homered last night. Gardner and Tauchman “slapped” HRs the opposite way, while the Yankees have now hit in excess of 30 HRs at Camden this year. Part ball, part environment, part weather, why wouldn’t we expect this to continue on Tuesday night against Asher Wojciechowski. Though he’s struck out 29.6% of batters faced through six starts, he’s also allowed seven HRs with a 26.4 GB% and 12.6% Barrels/BBE. The latter the highest mark on the board tonight among those with at least one start. Wojciechowski has dominated RHBs (.248 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), but struggled with LHBs (.361 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), but do to the extreme fly ball rate, the seven HRs have been fairly evenly split. The Yankees are one of three teams above six implied runs (6.18) and less than a tenth of a run off the top spot tonight. While Didi Gregorius is the top LH bat in this lineup (126 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brett Gardner has become somewhat of a power hitter in this juiced ball environment as well (111 wRC+, .224 ISO). In fact, he and Tauchman (117 wRC+, .252 ISO) are the hottest bats in this lineup, both exceeding a 220 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. If either sees themselves bumped up towards the top or middle of the lineup tonight, they’re both within $100 of $3K on FanDuel. Mike Ford (71 wRC+, .118 ISO) also homered last night to add to his 23 with a 149 wRC+ at AAA this year.
Other tagged players: Mike Ford, Asher Wojciechowski, Mike Tauchman, Didi Gregorius With Or Without The Narrative Boost
We’re going to hear a lot about how Houston improves the strikeout rates of their pitchers. It’s certainly possible that we see a boost for Greinke, but at this salary and in this matchup, he doesn’t even need to see any sudden improvement to be a top option on this slate. His elite control alone would have him in the cash games discussion against a Rockies team that ranks 25th in ISO and 29th in wOBA away from Coors Field. Add in already average strikeout ability with the potential for some increase, and there is enough upside for tournaments as well.