DFS Alerts
Astros have highest total of the night vs. Bundy in Camden Yards
It’s been another frustrating season for Dylan Bundy, who is again posting a solid K-BB (15.7%) but doesn’t have much to show for it (5.15 ERA). Bundy does have an improved .313 xwOBA allowed this year, but with a pedestrian 7.3% barrel rate and 88.3 MPH aEV according to Statcast. Bundy is more vulnerable vs. left-handed bats (.347 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .293 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight given the quality of the Astros lineup. With the Astros’ lineup back to full strength and arguably the best it’s been since their break-out 2017, there are plenty of options in play: Yordan Alvarez (.408 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.396), Michael Brantley (.378), Alex Bregman (.371), Carlos Correa (.369), Yuli Gurriel (.322) and Jose Altuve (.315) are all great options tonight. Alvarez has been their hottest hitter with a .457 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Bregman (.393) and Altuve (.383). All the aforementioned hitters will cost $5k+ on Draftkings, but they could very well be worth it given the juicy 6.56 implied total.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Michael Brantley
Gio Gonzalez in high strikeout spot against Rangers (26.3 K% vs LHP)
Gio Gonzalez hasn’t done much to garner notice in his 45.2 innings for the Brewers. A 14.8 K-BB% is a bit above league average, while his 3.35 ERA is around a run below non-FIP estimators. Gonzalez has a history of being able to suppress HRs, but his 7.5 HR/FB this season is only half the league average, while his 42.2 GB% is the lowest of his career. In a power friendly park, it would seem there would be more home runs in store. Still, he owns a 3.92 DRA and his .328 xwOBA is just about league average, which would seem to make a $7K price tag for his services tonight seem about right. That’s before taking the tremendous matchup into account though. Gonzalez faces off against the Rangers tonight, who have a team 90 wRC+ with a 26.3 K% vs LHP. Additionally, the Rangers lose their DH in an NL park. Tonight’s projected lineup for Texas features five batters above a 25 K% vs LHP this season and only one batter (Hunter Pence) above a .200 ISO vs LHP with a strikeout rate below 30%. So, while Gonzalez may very well regress at some point, his upside is increased in this matchup, making his low price quite the bargain potentially.
Tyler Beede has improved walk rate, gets decent matchup in Oracle and is dirt cheap
On the year, Tyler Beede has been pretty unimpressive with a 5.38 ERA with a 4.97 xFIP, 5.0 SIERA, 20.5 % K rate, 10.1% BB rate and 11.5% SwStr. However, Beede has shown a bit better over the past 30 days as he has just a 4.6% BB rate, 4.50 xFIP, 4.47 SIERA, and a 12.8% SwStr while maintaining a 20% K rate. Beede has given up frequent loud contact (46.3% hard contact rate, 1.83 HR/9 on the year) but spacious and pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is probably the best park in baseball to give up contact. Beede gets a matchup tonight in Oracle Park with the Phillies, who have just a 91 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year, as well as just an 83 wRC+ over the past 30 days. In addition to a good matchup and environment, Beede comes with just a $5.3k price on Draftkings which allows for lots of flexibility throughout the rest of your lineup. He is also cheap on Fanduel at a price of $6.5k. The Phillies currently have just a 4.39 implied line vs. Beede and the Giants tonight.
Teheran is in a great spot vs. Marlins in Miami tonight
Julio Teheran looks like one of the best PTS/$ plays across the industry tonight in a great matchup with a few different factors working in his favor. Teheran has a been a bit lucky on the year (his estimators are almost 2 full runs above his 3.46 ERA) though he does have a wide gap between his career ERA (3.63) and his career xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.25). Teheran faces a Marlins team tonight that has a league-worst 75 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs. RHP this year and an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Teheran has a very wide platoon split; since 2017 he has a 4.19 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB and a .300 xwOBA vs. RHB compared to a 5.77 xFIP, 3.9% K-BB and .348 xwOBA vs. LHB. Fortunately for Teheran, the Marlins’ lineup will have just 2 left-handed batters (Isan Diaz and Curtis Granderson). Also working in Teheran’s favor tonight is an extremely pitcher friendly environment in Marlins Park, as well as projected catcher Tyler Flowers being one of the best pitch framers in the game. Teheran is plenty affordable as he’s $9k or less on both major sites tonight and will likely be highly owned across all contests. The Marlins have just a 3.73 implied total vs. Teheran and the Braves tonight.
Cheap Power at a Weak Position
Whenever we talk about Julio Teheran his career splits inevitably come up. Teheran has struggled against left-handed hitters (.335 wOBA; 5.08 xFIP; 17.4 K%) throughout his career, which it just so happens Isan Diaz is. Diaz has put up impressive numbers in the Minors and shown plenty of power upside with 26 HRs. Diaz is extremely cheap at a weak second base position and is one of my favorite salary relief options on the slate.
Matchup Based Upside
Use left-handed pitchers against the Rangers. Especially when they are on the road and especially when they’re playing in a NL Park without a DH. The Rangers have been bad against left-handed pitching this season with the league’s fourth highest strikeout rate (26.3%) against southpaws and a below average 90 wRC+. Gio is best reserved for tournaments but he does have some matchup based upside for a cheap price tag.
Change In Approach
While it remains unknown if Drew Smyly’s recent string of success with the Phillies is sustainable, one thing is certain – his approach has changed. Smyly has upped his Cutter usage significantly as a Philly throwing it 31.3%, 28.2%, and 32.9% in his three starts with Philadelphia. As a result, Smyly has seen an increase in ground ball rate and has been more successful generating soft contact. In addition to possibly being a “new” pitcher, context is working in Smyly’s favor on Friday night as he toes the rubber against a poor offense in a pitcher friendly park. Smyly is a solid SP2 option in all formats if you’re looking to save a little salary.
Usually Overlooked Offense Faces Struggling Pitcher
Edwin Jackson is back in the majors with the Tigers tonight, and it’s not clear why after he showed absolutely nothing with the Blue Jays earlier this season. Jackson was absolutely torched for 12 HRs in 28.1 innings over eight games with Toronto, allowing a 11.12 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. The entire Kansas City lineup is in play tonight, but I’ll be focusing on the first four hitters – Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier, and Jorge Soler – in case Jackson only makes it through four batters.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
High Risk Pitcher Carries Strikeout Upside at Affordable Price
Chris Archer has had a difficult season, but he has been slightly better since the All-Star Break with a 4.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 10.55 K/9 (compared to a 5.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 10.07 K/9 before the Break). Tonight Archer faces a Cardinals offense that ranks 27th in the league in slugging percentage and 10th in K% against right-handed pitching this season. Archer carries high strikeout potential (and high risk) for GPPs tonight at a discounted price.
Yu Darvish has walked just two batters over his last six starts, has at least six Ks in nine straight starts
Cincinnati is a dangerous environment for a HR prone pitcher, but Yu Darvish has his strikeout rate up to 28.1% and has walked just a total of two batters over his last six starts. He may be the Ace of this staff. His ERA and estimators are all below three over the last month. His .225 xwOBA over this period is best on the board. Aside from Joey Votto, the Cincinnati lineup is very young, featuring three rookies hitting fourth through sixth tonight. While there’s some potential in some of these bats, it’s a below average offense and only three batters in tonight’s lineup are below a 22.5 K% vs RHP this year and also only three above a .180 ISO vs RHP this year. The other concern for Darvish is that he hasn’t exceeded 25 batters in over a month, but that’s still allowed him to complete six innings in four of five starts due to the improved control. Darvish costs a bit above $9K and has at least six strikeouts in nine straight starts. The line has also been moving towards the Cubs as a small favorite, another factor in Darvish’s favor.
The Way To Get In Play Here
The Yankees are one of the top three offenses on this slate, but their top bats don’t quite reach the level of the Red Sox and Astros for me. The way to get in play with the middle of this Yankees lineup at a reasonable salary and a tough position is with Didi Gregorius. If you have all the salary in the world, play Xander Bogaerts first, but Gregorius is easier to fit while getting you some access to this Yankees lineup. In addition to his fly balls, Gregorius also has the lowest strikeout rate of any Yankees batter against right-handed pitching.
Brian Johnson allows lots of Barrels/BBE (8.8%) and is in a low strikeout spot (Angels 17.9% vs LHP)
Brian Johnson has not exceeded 19 batters in any of his outings this year, including three starts, so he’s only likely to go through the lineup twice, but that may be enough for the Angels to cause significant damage. For his career, almost 500 batted balls recorded by Statcast, opponents have barreled 8.8% of contact. To exacerbate this issue, the Angels have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year and Fenway is a highly positive run environment. It gets even worse for Johnson. RHBs own a .417 wOBA (.392 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. The outlook for Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is tremendous tonight, but Albert Pujols (112 wRC+, .230 ISO) has been no slouch with the platoon advantage either and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. For those looking to punt the catcher position, it’s not a large sample, but Kevan Smith (177 wRC+, .191 ISO, .419 xwOBA) costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel for an offense implied for 5.32 runs.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Kevan Smith, Brian Johnson The First Place To Spend
We have three offenses jumping to the top of the list tonight with the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees. In looking at the salaries and matchups for the top hitters in these lineups, my first lean is to the Boston righties with Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. The Angels’ Jaime Barria has shown drastic reverse splits this season with just 17.1% strikeouts against righties while allowing 45% fly balls and 42% hard hits. I love both Betts and Martinez, but I’ll start with Betts in cash games with his stronger plate skills leading to more on base upside, and both guys having plenty of power.
Top Of The Aces
This is a strong pitching slate up top, and I am going to recommend spreading out in tournaments tonight. With seven pitchers above a 27% K rate, it’s likely we see a few big scores tonight. For starters, I’ll go straight to the top with Walker Buehler, who has been getting stronger as the season moves along and has been untouchable at home. He has gone at least seven full innings in seven of his last ten starts including two complete games and the last two times he’s faced Arizona, he has a 20:0 K:BB ratio. High floor + high ceiling = worth spending for.
Giovanny Urshela has a 340 wRC+ with five HRs over the last seven days
Sean Reid-Foley has a 2.49 ERA through 21.2 innings due to impressive contact suppression (6.7 HR/FB, 4.5% Barrels/BBE, 27.7% 95+ mph EV). There’s certainly some regression due those numbers, especially the HR rate and that could be a big problem because he’s struck out just four more batters than he’s walked (18/14) through 99 batters faced with a 45.1 Z-O-Swing%. Most estimators are more than double his 2.49 ERA so far due not only to the HR rate, but also a .266 BABIP and half of his runs being unearned. The high walk rate has been a staple of his professional career, though he has generally put up above average strikeout rates throughout the minors. The projected Yankee lineup features only three or four of their projected started nine this season and has for the past couple of weeks. They are down to second or third options at many positions, yet they are currently the hottest offense in the majors after destroying Baltimore pitching this week. They lead the league with both a 175 wRC+ and 26.5 HR/FB over the last week and are fairly affordable on either site with a 5.84 implied run line that’s third best on the board. Two of the hottest bats include Giovanny Urshela (147 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Brett Gardner (114 wRC+, .236 ISO), who aren’t generally who come to mind when picturing Yankee sluggers, yet, they’ve each generated much more power than anyone would expect. Urhela has a 340 wRC+ over the last week, in which he’s homered five times in 25 PAs.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Sean Reid-Foley